A pessimistic guide to the NFL's 8 "first to worst" candidates
Last time, we took a hopeful look at the teams that could leap from fourth place to first place in their division. This time, we're doing the opposite.
Every NFL team has something to feel good about right now. As I said previously when I previewed all eight “worst to first” possibilities for the new season, it’s the most hopeful stretch on the NFL calendar.
We do not live in hopeful times, though, as if the barrage of daily apocalyptic headlines weren’t enough of a reminder for you. That’s also true in the NFL, where the 2021 season will bring sadness, in one form or another, to 31 teams. Most likely, at least one of those teams will experience the crushing disappointment of free-falling from the top spot in their division to the very bottom.
Since 2002, when the NFL realigned its divisions, 20 teams have gone from first to worst in a year, including two last season:
2003: Jets
2005: Eagles
2005: Packers
2006: Bucs
2007: Eagles
2007: Ravens
2007: Bears
2010: Bengals
2010: Vikings
2010: Cardinals
2011: Colts
2011: Chiefs
2013: Washington
2013: Texans
2015: Cowboys
2016: Panthers
2017: Texans
2018: Jaguars
2020: Eagles
2020: 49ers
Four — the 2005 Eagles, 2007 Bears, 2016 Panthers, and 2020 49ers — suffered the most brutal kind of Super Bowl hangover. They traveled the cursed path of Super Bowl runners-up to fourth-place finishers in their own division.
Injuries are usually the main reason why those teams collapsed so quickly, yet they’re not the only culprit. The same will likely be true for any squad in 2021. May I present the worst-case scenario for each of the reigning division winners:
Washington, NFC East: If its new QB situation isn’t an improvement
In the final week of the regular season, Washington edged a maybe-tanking Eagles team to finish 7-9. That was good enough. WFT was able to take advantage of a weakened NFC East — even by NFC East standards — and rode its young, ferocious defense to its first division title since 2015. It did so despite having, per Football Outsiders’ metrics, the worst offensive DVOA and passing DVOA in the NFL.
Even with Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne all returning to anchor one of the league’s top defensive lines, Washington will need more from its quarterback position than it got last year from a mostly ineffective trio of Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith. WFT barely made it to the playoffs a year ago. If every other team in the division is even the teeniest bit better, then it can’t expect to repeat — something no one in the NFC East has done in 17 years.
And the rest of the NFC East can bounce back. The Cowboys will have a healthy Dak Prescott again. The same for the Giants and Saquon Barkley. The Eagles’ offensive line shouldn’t be as banged up and can protect Jalen Hurts so he doesn’t get panicky in the pocket like Carson Wentz last season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke don’t have to post Mahomes-like stats every week, either. They just have to give Washington consistent, competent play under center. Otherwise, without much separating first place from fourth, WFT could quickly find itself in a familiar spot as the suckiest team in the suckiest division.
Packers, NFC North: If the Aaron Rodgers drama takes a turn for the worst
We know Aaron Rodgers is more disgruntled than ever with the Green Bay front office. We do not yet know if Rodgers plans to suit up for the Packers in 2021.
Most recently, Rodgers said that he’ll take the next couple of weeks to figure out his future. While it seems unbelievable that a franchise’s longtime quarterback and reigning league MVP would simply choose to opt out of his lucrative contract, it’s not totally outrageous considering both Rodgers’ personality and his offseason. In just the last six or so months, the 37-year-old has gotten engaged, guest-hosted Jeopardy with the hopes of winning the permanent job, focused on his mental health, and spent time on the golf course with this POS:
If any star quarterback would be willing to quit football to try something else, it’d be Rodgers.
And in that case, are you going to trust Jordan Love, a two- or three-year project who has never thrown an NFL pass, to keep the Packers atop the division? We haven’t seen or heard any hype on Love, which suggests he’s not ready. The other quarterbacks on the roster — Kurt Benkert, Blake Bortles (BORTLES!), and Jake Dolegala — inspire even less confidence.
The last time the Packers had to start a QB other than Rodgers was when he broke his collarbone in 2017. They went 4-1 until Rodgers was hurt, and then finished 7-9 and in third place in the division. Now imagine an entire season like that. It would be a big ol’ cheese-fart stinkfest in Green Bay.
Saints, NFC South: If Taysom Hill starts too many games
Just when you think that Sean Payton is the only one enamored with Taysom Hill, Saints GM Mickey Loomis publicly raves about him. Sigh.
To be fair, Loomis also had positive things to say about Winston, who is more experienced and has proven to be a capable starting quarterback in the league.
The problem with Winston is he’s erratic. He can air it out — in 2019 as the Bucs’ starter, he trailed only Matthew Stafford in both average intended air yards and average completed air yards. Then he can turn around and throw a backwards pass that gets picked off by the other team, and as he’s somersaulting in the air, they run it all the way back for six.
Winston never fails to produce goofy highlights, even in the offseason:
(He didn’t fumble there, which feels like a good omen.)
He is the NFL’s Inspector Clouseau, bumbling his way through life (30 interceptions in 2019) and somehow still doing his job (33 TDs in 2019 and a league-leading 5,109 passing yards).
Yet Winston is a better option as the Saints’ full-time starter than the limited Hill, who was admittedly “fine” filling in for Drew Brees last season. He’s still an almost 31-year-old with four touchdown passes in his career, and his three wins as a starter came against the Falcons (twice) and a Broncos team forced to play a practice squad wide receiver under center.
The Saints need a quarterback with a strong arm who can be a reliable passer, especially without much depth after Michael Thomas at receiver. That’s not Hill, who can at least continue to be a gadget player in the New Orleans offense.
Unfortunately, with Winston’s blooper tendencies and Payton’s commitment to Hill, it’s easy to imagine Winston getting a very short leash. If he frustrates Payton with inconsistent play, then Hill could win the job permanently. The Saints were able to tread water with him as the starter for four games last year. They can’t expect success with an entire season of Hill at the most important position — not when they’re in the same division as the defending Super Bowl champs and not when their offense made no notable additions this offseason.
Seahawks, NFC West: If the new OC makes Russell Wilson miss Brian Schottenheimer
Russell Wilson was the MVP frontrunner for the first half of 2020. Then the opposing defenses adjusted and the Seattle offense went in decline — aka Brian Schottenheimer mode. The OC was fired after the Seahawks’ early playoff exit, and Wilson was involved in choosing Shane Waldron as Schottenheimer’s replacement.
Waldron is a first-time offensive coordinator, which is a gamble, particularly for someone who needs to produce results immediately with a quarterback as skilled as Wilson:
Despite Wilson downplaying any trade rumors, he was clearly fed up with the offense and his lack of protection over the years. Waldron will be tasked with designing plays that allow Wilson to shine without taking so many hits. Luckily, he’ll have a top-tier quarterback and plenty of weapons to work with, including this freak of nature:
There isn’t much margin for error, however. The Seahawks are built to win now in a division with all win-now teams. If the offense stagnates again, and if Waldron doesn’t show improvement over Schottenheimer’s offense, the Seahawks aren’t just at risk of plunging to the bottom of the NFC West. They’re also at risk of alienating their franchise quarterback even more and perhaps irreparably.
Bills, AFC East: If a virulent Covid strain sweeps through the locker room
For the first time in more than a year and a half, I went back home for a visit. I have such affection for the Midwest, and the trip was comforting and nostalgic in a way that I haven’t felt in a long time. But nostalgia is not reality, and I was quickly reminded why small-town America is not the life for me. “I support the blue” yard signs that are code for something else. Driving by houses that still proudly display Trump flags. Almost no masks anywhere, when I know not all of those people are vaccinated and refuse to consider it because “it’s their right” (and they have zero understanding of what the First Amendment actually means) or “I’ve already gotten Covid, so I don’t need it” (none are medical professionals). All while the Delta strain is ripping through the country and killing more unvaccinated Americans by the day. To hell with everyone else, I guess.
That’s basically the Bills, seemingly the most vaccine-hesitant (or hostile) roster in the NFL. Sean McDermott is trying to keep the peace while also “encouraging” his players to make the right decisions, but who knows if he can get through to everyone. Millions of dead people around the world isn’t doing it.
If the Bills get hit with a Covid-19 outbreak and have to trot out a depleted squad for a few games, then it could disrupt the AFC East standings. It would have to be a severe case for the Bills to plummet below the Jets — like not only Josh Allen is out, but also Mitchell Trubisky, who we know (faint praise alert) can at least offer something in a game manager role, along with several other starters on offense and defense.
To be clear, I do not wish this to happen. I do not take joy in any Covid-related “play stupid games win stupid prizes” consequences. I choose empathy in these situations, especially because it feels like empathy is in short supply these days. But at this point, I would also not be surprised if it did.
Steelers, AFC North: If the defense takes a step back
The Steelers won their first 11 games of last season and finished with the No. 1 ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders. Although that was enough to win the AFC North, they didn’t even make it out of the first round of the playoffs. Heading into 2021, the Steelers face a stiff challenge in their quest to repeat as division champs with the Browns and Ravens waiting in the wings to dethrone them.
On the plus side, Pittsburgh boasts what could be the best defensive line in the NFL and even after losing a couple members in free agency, the secondary should be solid as well. However, the Steelers need to be as good, if not better, on defense to lead this team. The offensive line, which ranked in the bottom third in the league in pass block win rate and run block win rate, will look almost completely different in 2021 — and probably not in a good way.
Other than that, the only real change the offense underwent this offseason is drafting running back Najee Harris in the first round. Earlier, Christian detailed the struggles Harris could encounter behind that unimpressively revamped offensive line. Add in an older Ben Roethlisberger, who already looked pretty dang old last year, and his declining arm, and the offense doesn’t look very promising. The defense will have to continue playing at a high level, and if not, the Steelers don’t just have to worry about the Browns and Ravens leaving them in the dust. A healthier and improved Bengals team could do it too.
Titans, AFC South: If every major offensive player suffers a season-ending injury
The Titans were the favorites in the AFC South even before they traded for Julio Jones. Now they’re doubly the favorites.
Still, the Colts are loaded with talent and could pose a threat if Carson Wentz recovers from the yips. It’s plausible the Jaguars could too, if Trevor Lawrence enters the NFL in the same god-tier mode he played at in college. But the Texans? Yeaaaaaah, it’ll take more than a Jack Easterby blood sacrifice for them to finish anywhere but the basement.
So for the Titans to end up in a spot worse than the Texans, disaster would have to strike. They’d have to get hit with as many injuries, maybe more, than the 49ers last year. And those injuries would have to be serious and affect, almost exclusively, the major players on offense — Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones.
The offense in its current state can and has carried this team. The defense ranked near the bottom of the NFL last season, and even after signing Bud Dupree and Denico Autry, the pass rush remains a weakness. It’s not going to save the day if the offense is decimated by injuries and has to turn to DeShone Kizer/Logan Woodside to start at quarterback, without a couple of key playmakers to boot.
Fortunately for the Titans, an injury explosion like that is unlikely to happen. Unless Jack Easterby is reading this and starts getting ideas for his next blood sacrifice.
Chiefs, AFC West: If something bad happens to Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs have been relatively lucky with Patrick Mahomes’ health. Two years ago, he dislocated his kneecap during a game against the Broncos and as bad as it looked in real time, there was no structural damage. Mahomes missed just two games — the only time he’s missed a start due to injury even though he’s been banged up on occasion (he’s an NFL QB, after all).
In the Divisional Round of last season’s playoffs, Mahomes was knocked out of the game halfway through the third quarter. While he was in concussion protocol, the Browns mounted a comeback, but Chad Henne, of all people, sealed the win for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have survived without Mahomes for a couple of games and a quarter and a half. What if they had to do that for an almost entire season? Mahomes underwent what sounds like routine foot surgery this offseason, but if he has a setback or suffers another major injury that ends his season early, Kansas City’s offense wouldn’t recover.
Granted, they have other dynamic offensive players — Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire — who are capable of stringing together some wins no matter who is at quarterback. That wouldn’t be enough to make up for the loss of Mahomes, though. Not with a defense that’s middle of the pack (at best) and could now be without Frank Clark. And not in a division where every other team is arming themselves to try to take down the Chiefs. That’s a doable scenario without Mahomes.