An optimistic guide to the NFL's 8 "worst to first" candidates
Odds are that at least one of these teams will win their division in 2021.
In some ways, this pre-training camp period is the most hopeful time of year in the NFL. Every team is probably the healthiest it’ll be all season, and every team’s goal of winning its division is alive and well (even the Jets!).
The latter is not without reason, either. Since the NFL’s realignment in 2002, 26 teams have gone from worst to first in their division in just one season. It happens at least once every year — 2014 and 2019 are the lone exceptions — with Washington being the most recent example. In many years, it happens more than once.
For the visual learners out there, here’s the entire list:
2003: Panthers
2003: Chiefs
2004: Falcons
2004: Chargers
2005: Bucs
2005: Giants
2005: Bears
2006: Ravens
2006: Saints
2006: Eagles
2007: Bucs
2008: Dolphins
2009: Saints
2010: Chiefs
2011: Broncos
2011: Texans
2012: Washington
2013: Panthers
2013: Eagles
2015: Washington
2016: Cowboys
2017: Jaguars
2017: Eagles
2018: Bears
2018: Texans
2020: Washington
Three of those teams went to the Super Bowl — the 2009 Saints and 2017 Eagles won it all, while the 2003 Panthers were runners-up.
So the hope for a quick turnaround is warranted … in some cases more than others, at least. But I’d like to remain positive here. Let’s take a look at all eight bottom dwellers from the 2020 season and figure out why each has a chance at flip-flopping from fourth to first place in 2021.
Because their division sucks: Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East)
2020 record: 4-11-1
Last division title: 2019
Last year, Washington won the division title with a losing record, just the third time in NFL history that has happened (the strike-shortened 1982 season not included). But the best part about playing in the NFL’s punching bag division? Every team has a good shot at finishing on top. In fact, no NFC East squad has repeated as division champs since the Eagles won four in a row from 2001-04.
The Eagles have dealt with more change this offseason than the Cowboys, Giants, and Washington. They officially moved on from the Carson Wentz-Doug Pederson era, handing the reins over to first-time coach Nick Sirianni and second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia is not completely lacking experience, though, thanks to the veteran presence on the offensive line (Brandon Brooks, Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson) and on defense (Brandon Graham, Ryan Kerrigan, Darius Slay, Fletcher Cox).
Although Sirianni made a terrible first impression, he has since reportedly gained the confidence of the locker room. Hurts should have more help this season than he received in his four starts last year. With a healthier OL and the addition of shiny new target DeVonta Smith, Hurts has the potential to break out in his first year as the full-time starter.
The Eagles were alive in the division race until Week 16 last season, and with a little more effort in Week 17, they probably could’ve beaten Washington and sent the Giants to the playoffs. The NFC East is bad enough, and the Eagles are competent enough, that they can be a real factor in the division even in the midst of what should be a transition year.
Because they’re relatively drama-free: Detroit Lions (NFC North)
2020 record: 5-11
Last division title: 1993
Like the Eagles, the Lions have undergone a recent transformation. In his first major act as GM, Brad Holmes shipped Matthew Stafford off to the Rams in exchange for picks and Jared Goff, who will look to revive his career with a team that has never won its division in his entire life. New coach Dan Campbell raised eyebrows at his introductory presser too, but there’s more to him than just his “football guy” soundbites. Campbell has also made several smart hires, including Anthony Lynn as his OC and Aaron Glenn as his DC.
Those moves alone won’t magically turn the Lions — who ranked last in defensive DVOA and No. 27 in overall DVOA — into contenders right away. But they could benefit from the rest of the NFC North being in various states of disarray. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are still on the rocks. The Bears are insistent on starting Andy Dalton over Justin Fields (at least early in the season). The Vikings need actual results from Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins this season rather than disappointment, or else both could be out of Minnesota before long.
Under the right circumstances, the Lions could sneak their way into the NFC North race this season. Of course, it’s more likely that their rebuild takes more time and they’ll come up short of a division title for the 28th straight year. But as Campbell would quote, “That's just, like, your opinion, man.”
Because that offense will be sick: Atlanta Falcons (NFC South)
2020 record: 4-12
Last division title: 2016
The Falcons were the last team not named the Saints to win the NFC South; that was nearly five years ago. Now, Drew Brees’ retirement opens the door for another team to take home the crown. Unfortunately for the Falcons, they also play in the same division as Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs.
There’s reason for, if not hope then at least improvement in Atlanta, even without Julio Jones. New coach Arthur Smith is a creative offensive mind who helped unleash a valuable version of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. Matt Ryan continues to play at a high level into his mid-30s. Calvin Ridley is coming off a 1,374-yard season, proving he has No. 1 WR potential. Fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts is a unicorn:
The defense … well, uh, at least the offense should be able to score a lot of points! And that should come in handy in the Falcons’ attempts to finally close out games. Nine of their losses in 2020 were by eight points or fewer. They’re already competitive, and with an easy schedule and what should be an even more dynamic offensive attack, the Falcons can’t be counted out. Well, unless they’re up 28-3 (forgive me for the cheap joke, but I had to do it).
Because the injury situation can’t get worse (right?): San Francisco 49ers (NFC West)
2020 record: 6-10
Last division title: 2019
The 49ers are the most realistic “worst to first” candidate in the NFL. They’re just one season removed from winning the NFC West and would have been in the conversation again in 2020 if the injury gods hadn’t smote them like never before. The players who will return after ending their season on injured reserve looks like a Pro Bowl roster: Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Dee Ford, Raheem Mostert, and Jimmy Garoppolo (I mean, Mitchell Trubisky made the Pro Bowl one year so JG is not really a stretch here).
Once healthy again, the 49ers can pick up right where they left off in 2019, especially with young talent like Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Kinlaw, and Trey Sermon added to the mix since then. The question will be if they stick with Garoppolo or switch to rookie Trey Lance at any point in the season — and that might depend on how well they play (or don’t).
The biggest hurdle facing the 49ers, besides the uncertainty at the quarterback position and whether they can keep the injuries at bay, is that they play in the toughest division in the NFC (and maybe in the NFL). Every team in the NFC West got better this offseason in some way — the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford; the Seahawks hired a real offensive coordinator for Russell Wilson; the Cardinals added reinforcements to their offensive line to protect Kyler Murray.
The 49ers have the tools to take back control of the division again. But like most years in the NFC West, it won’t come easy.
Because they actually hired a good coach: New York Jets (AFC East)
2020 record: 2-14
Last division title: 2002
The Jets, like someone who finally dumped the partner who had been gaslighting them, are free of Adam Gase. They replaced him with Robert Saleh, a coach with brains and without crazy eyes. That alone is reason enough to believe the Jets can fix their league-worst offense. Saleh also brought on Mike LaFleur as his OC and has an exciting rookie quarterback to help him in that quest.
Christian already laid out all the reasons first-rounder Zach Wilson can break the Jets’ depressing cycle of failed quarterback draftees. If he plays up to the promise he showed last season at BYU, then the NFL will regularly post his highlights on Twitter each Sunday (and attempt to suspend the accounts of anyone who does the same).
Wilson isn’t the only one on the roster who is brimming with playmaking potential. His receivers, including second-year speedster Denzel Mims, rookie Elijah Moore, and free agent addition Corey Davis, can all make Wilson’s job easier. So can the offensive line that the Jets have beefed up with 2020 first-round pick Mekhi Becton, 2021 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker, and recent signee Morgan Moses.
Defense is Saleh’s area of expertise, and he has few pieces to work with there, such as Marcus Maye, Quinnen Williams, and C.J. Mosley. Even better for them is that Gregg Williams is no longer anywhere near Florham Park. (I have no idea where the now-unemployed Williams resides, but if I had to bet money on it, my guess would be Florida.)
Despite the possibility of a bright future for Saleh’s Jets, it’s hard to envision them winning the AFC East this season, even though the Patriots don’t have a death grip on the division anymore. Still, stranger things have happened. The Bills, reigning champs and favorites to repeat, appear to be the most anti-vaxxer team in the NFL. If they didn’t learn a lesson from NC State in the College World Series, then Covid could derail Buffalo’s season and another team could swoop in.
Because they have a crop of young playmakers: Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North)
2020 record: 4-11-1
Last division title: 2015
If the NFC West isn’t the toughest division in the NFL, then it’s the AFC North, which accounted for almost half of the conference’s playoff teams in 2020. The only team in the division not invited to the postseason party was the Bengals, who lost quarterback Joe Burrow to injury halfway through the season.
It’s clear that their priority this offseason has been to surround Burrow with talent. They drafted his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick, providing Burrow with a deep-ball target he can trust. Chase, along with breakout candidate Tee Higgins and reliable slot guy Tyler Boyd, gives the Bengals a sneaky-great group of young receivers.
They also took steps to improve the offensive line with free agent Riley Reiff and second-round pick Jackson Carman.
With a healthy Burrow and Joe Mixon back in the fold, the Bengals should be able to put up points in 2021. Their additions on defense are less of a sure thing — maybe Trey Hendrickson can replicate his 13.5-sack season in Cincinnati and maybe Chidobe Awuzie can bounce back from an injury-shortened 2020 — but if they pan out, then Burrow and the offense won’t have to shoulder most of the load.
While it’s still an uphill battle for the Bengals to challenge for the division crown, they could be better than expected in 2021. And if the Browns, Ravens, and Steelers cannibalize each other, then the Bengals could be ready to pounce.
Because winners win: Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South)
2020 record: 1-15
Last division title: 2017
The NFL is not college football. It has chewed up and spit out plenty of CFB’s biggest stars and best coaches. There’s no guarantee that Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer will succeed at this next level. But if we know anything about both men, it’s that both know how to win and will work as hard as humanly possible to make sure that happens.
Although Meyer has already made a few questionable decisions — stubborn insistence on signing Tim Tebow, trying to hire Chris Doyle — that’s kind of par for the course for him. What matters is how the team responds to his leadership. That’s what he’s always excelled at as a coach.
Lawrence is a special quarterback with the athleticism, laser arm, and quick decision-making to almost single-handedly turn the franchise around. Luckily, he won’t have to do it himself. He’ll have the team’s leading receiver DJ Chark, veteran Marvin Jones, rising talent Laviska Shenault Jr., the awesome (and underrated) James Robinson as his RB1, and college teammate Travis Etienne as a safety blanket.
The defense has its own share of recent first-rounders, both proven (Josh Allen, C.J. Henderson) and not (K'Lavon Chaisson), who could help the Jaguars make the leap. It doesn’t hurt that they also play in the AFC South. Though the Titans are the favorites and the Colts will be in the mix if Carson Wentz rebounds in Indianapolis, neither one is a slam dunk to make it back to the playoffs (we don’t even have to include the Texans in this conversation). That could mean the division is ripe for the taking by a couple of new faces who don’t understand the definition of the word failure.
Because they had a strong offseason: Denver Broncos (AFC West)
2020 record: 5-11
Last division title: 2015
In a division with Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos made the wise decision to bring in reinforcements for their secondary this offseason. They signed Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby, extended Justin Simmons, and drafted Patrick Surtain II. Now, the unit might just be the best in the league:
That secondary will benefit from a reinvigorated pass rush, too. Von Miller will be on the comeback trail and can finally play alongside Bradley Chubb again to give opposing quarterbacks nightmares.
The offense got a couple new bodies of its own, including veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater, explosive second-round back Javonte Williams, and center/crop top fan Quinn Meinerz:
Whether it’s Bridgewater under center or RVB’s breakout pick Drew Lock, this offense can be dangerous, if everyone can stay healthy. Whoever’s at quarterback will have his pick of proficient targets, from Courtland Sutton to Jerry Jeudy to KJ Hamler to Noah Fant.
Realistically, though, the division goes through the Chiefs, unless they suffer a major Super Bowl loser hangover, a la the 49ers, and/or the vengeful injury gods target them next, a la the 49ers. Or, y’know, unless the Broncos somehow pull off a miracle and trade for Aaron Rodgers. Then, game on.