Week 12: The feel-good story that wasn't
Week 12: The feel-good story that wasn't
Plus, a celebration of Derrick Henry, 5-word recaps, and a tremendous pain index.
Oh hell yes, it’s Derrick Henry season
Derrick Henry is a good running back over the first half of the regular season. He’s a demi-god over the second half.
The NFL’s current rushing leader — he came into Week 12 with 1,079 yards — was the focal point of head coach Mike Vrabel’s offense from the get-go in a pivotal rematch against the Colts. He was the default call throughout Vrabel’s early game script, earning 14 carries or targets over his team’s first 22 plays. The strategy paid off in a huge way; Henry exploded for 178 rushing yards and three touchdowns to power what was arguably the biggest win of Tennessee’s season to date.
The Colts came into that game knowing a home win would cement their place atop the AFC South with a 2-0 record against the Titans. Instead, El Tractorcito took over and propelled his team to a 35-14 halftime lead on the road. Now Tennessee will head into Week 13 as the division leader. Indianapolis slipped to the last spot in a crowded conference playoff field.
It’s a familiar feeling for Titans fans. Last fall, head coach Mike Vrabel took a 4-5 team to a 5-2 finish before rumbling through the Patriots and Ravens and into the AFC title game. In 2018 he turned a 3-4 start into a 9-6 record before a Week 17 loss to Indianapolis handed the Colts a playoff berth.
The common denominator in those strong finishes? Big performances from Henry. Here’s what the bruising tailback averages in each phase of the season:
Games 1-8: 57.6 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, 0.48 touchdowns/game
Games 9-12: 83.9 rush yards/game, 6 yards/carry, 0.83 TDs/game
Games 13-16: 85.2 rush yards/game, 5.1 yards/carry, 1.07 TDs/game
Unsurprisingly, the Titans are 21-12 in games Henry has played over the final eight games of the season. When he’s cooking, it affects so much more than just Tennessee’s run game.
Henry’s brilliance forced the Colts into a predictable — and stoppable — gameplan
Henry’s virtuoso performance on the ground shifted the pressure to the Colts’ passing attack in a game of catch-up. Knowing Indianapolis had to throw often to keep pace, Vrabel dialed up a little extra pressure from his underwhelming pass rush on what became increasingly obvious passing downs. Fortunately for him, it didn’t take much to rattle Philip Rivers:
Rivers started his game with nine completions in his first 11 attempts for 123 yards and a touchdown. Over his next five drives — a span in which the Titans turned a 14-14 tie into a 38-14 bloodletting — he went 5-16 for 41 yards, zero touchdowns, three first downs, and one interception. Though he rebounded for a respectable 295-yard performance, the bulk of those yards were Bortles’ed to him in garbage time after this game was effectively over.
Rivers wasn’t the only quarterback to have his day changed by Henry, of course.
Ryan Tannehill was his best self because he didn’t have to throw much
Henry’s usage in the running game created gaps downfield against a secondary that came into Sunday ranked fifth in the NFL in defensive efficiency. Ryan Tannehill didn’t have to exert himself to rack up 200+ yards, throwing only 22 passes on a day where the Colts dropped back 46 times.
After averaging 33 attempts per game as a Dolphin, Tannehill has averaged fewer than 27 per game in his two seasons in Tennessee. In the nine regular season games where he’s been forced to throw 30+ attempts, he’s got an 18:7 TD:INT ratio and a 98.3 passer rating. In the 12 where he’s thrown 29 passes or fewer, his TD:INT ratio sits at 22:1. His rating is a tidy 103.7. His Titans are, unsurprisingly, 10-2 in those games.
Let’s simplify things even further. In games where Henry has rushed for 100+ yards, Tannehill has a 113.5 passer rating. He’s 10-2 in those starts while averaging 273 passing yards and a pair of passing touchdowns per game. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, at least in a league where Patrick Mahomes is a mortal human being.
Of course, it helps when you’ve got the kind of receiving corps who can turn simple 10-yard routes into 60+ yard touchdowns:
Or turn a poorly thrown fourth-down pass into first-and-goal:
Forcing defenses to stack the box in fear of a bruising Henry run creates tremendous opportunities for the passing game. That’s been huge for Tannehill, but wideouts like A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, along with tight ends Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser, have been lifted by this rising tide as well.
These powers combine to create a Titans team barrelling toward a home playoff game this January. The Titans had plenty of questions to answer after a 5-0 start disintegrated in a 1-3 stretch that pushed them to the periphery of the postseason equation. Henry was pretty good in those games, but stopping him wasn’t a priority for opposing defenses.
It was Sunday, albeit against a defense missing one of its most important run-stuffing pieces up front, along with fellow vital interior piece Denico Autry:
Now that he’s looking like late-season Derrick Henry, opponents can’t afford to split their attention. The All-Pro tailback, crashing toward his second straight rushing title, has run for 311 yards and four touchdowns the past two weeks as his Titans dispatched the Ravens and Colts. If he keeps this pace, Tennessee is destined for another lengthy playoff run.
If not, well, at least we’ll get to see what Brown and Davis can do through double coverage. —CD
Week 12 results, in five words or fewer
Falcons 43, Raiders 6
Bills 27, Chargers 17
Giants 19, Bengals 17
First-place Giants, but Jones injured
Titans 45, Colts 26
Vikings 28, Panthers 27
Patriots 20, Cardinals 17
Dolphins 20, Jets 3
Browns 27, Jaguars 25
Saints 31, Broncos 3
49ers 23, Rams 20
Chiefs 27, Bucs 24
Packers 41, Bears 25
Beginning to think Rodgers > Trubisky
Broncos vs. Saints, the most 2020 NFL game
Sometimes it’s difficult to identify which genre more aptly fits our current times: apocalyptic horror or dark comedy? In the NFL — really all season, but this week in particular — it’s been both.
The Steelers-Ravens rematch, previously slotted for the primetime Thanksgiving spot, has been rescheduled twice. The Ravens especially have been hit hard, with 23 players on the Covid list, a number that has continued to grow by the day:
That includes tight end Mark Andrews, who has Type 1 diabetes. Steelers running back James Conner, a cancer survivor, also tested positive the other day. And yet, as of right now, the game is set for Tuesday night because the NFL is gonna NFL (and NFL media is gonna NFL media):
Across the country, the 49ers are now without a home stadium for the next few weeks. Santa Clara County has prohibited all contact sports through Dec. 21, which means the 49ers won’t be able to practice or play in Levi’s Stadium. It gets bleaker:
But no situation more perfectly defined the state of the NFL than what happened with the Broncos. Starting quarterback Drew Lock, along with backup Brett Rypien and practice squander Blake Bortles, had to isolate after third-stringer Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid. Lock admitted they had been loosey-goosey with mask and social distancing rules during QB meetings, and that left the Broncos without a quarterback on Saturday for their game on Sunday.
With the NFL refusing to move the contest back a few days, the Broncos had to scramble for a solution and landed on practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton. (Their first option? An offensive coach. That’s not an Onion headline.)
Hinton started his career at Wake Forest as a quarterback, but he transitioned to wide receiver as a junior in 2018. Although he didn’t make the Broncos’ roster as an undrafted rookie, they signed him to the practice squad earlier this month, as a wide receiver. Less than four weeks later, he got his first NFL action, as a starting quarterback.
On 24 hours’ notice. After not taking significant snaps as a quarterback in three years. Against a top-three defense.
Then the Broncos tried to turn the pandemic-induced roster shakeup into a feel-good story:
In a sense, I understand, given everything that had to happen to get Hinton in this position and his extremely unconventional journey to NFL starting quarterback. Hinton himself deserves all the credit in the world, but the league shouldn’t have let it come to this. It wasn’t really fair to Hinton or the Broncos for this matchup to be played Sunday, and despite our morbid curiosity with how the NFL’s sicko game would go, it was pretty tortuous to watch.
The Saints won easily. Hinton completed one of his nine pass attempts and was picked off twice. (Reminder: You and I would not even be able to complete one pass in an NFL game.) The Broncos’ staff also didn’t do him any favors by telegraphing when he was going to throw and when they were going with a wildcat play.
With Taysom Hill starting on the other side, there were three times as many pass attempts as rushing attempts in the game, which wrapped up in just over 2.5 hours. After the first quarter, the teams combined for -8 yards passing. Hill’s final stat line as a passer wasn’t impressive either — 9 of 16 for 78 yards and one pick — though he did rush for two touchdowns.
However, Hinton still has bragging rights over Hill in one category: He has thrown a touchdown pass more recently than Hill has:
You have to admit, that’s hilarious, even if it’s more like gallows humor for our nightmare world. — SH
The Week 12 Pain Index
Independent of Broncos-Saints, there were a lot of quarterback troubles around the NFL this weekend. Derek Carr accurately described his four-turnover performance as “trash.” Jared Goff almost matched him with three turnovers of his own.
Baker Mayfield, who ended his three-game touchdown drought, also badly missed a wide-open receiver in the end zone. Teddy Bridgewater was so off-target on a throw to DJ Moore that Moore wound up getting hurt, and the Panthers settled for a field goal, which gave the Vikings just enough room to make a comeback. Justin Herbert’s lone interception killed the Chargers’ comeback chances. Kyler Murray and Cam Newton combined for zero touchdowns and three picks. Sam Darnold and Mitchell Trubisky were back, and they were still Sam Darnold and Mitchell Trubisky.
Mike Glennon — yes that Mike Glennon — played better than two-thirds of the other quarterbacks Sunday, and all the Jaguars have to show for it is a 10th straight loss and their GM joining Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn on the unemployment line.
What I’m saying is that this week was A LOT. But which teams are feeling the worst after Sunday? We’ll let the Week 12 pain index decide. — SH
3. Las Vegas Raiders
A game against the Falcons is the best chance you’re going to get to pad those passing stats. Or, it’s supposed to be. The Raiders must have been confused by the time zone change or forget they had a game, because no team on Sunday looked as ill-prepared to play as Las Vegas. Harassed for most of three quarters and sacked three times, Derek Carr went full deer-in-headlights mode, opting to fumble thrice instead of throwing picks. With his brain scrambled by an Atlanta defense that barely had a pulse earlier this season, the Raiders opted to roll with Gruden favorite Nathan Peterman for most of the fourth quarter — and the same thing happened to him.
At least Gruden was honest enough to accept accountability for the 43-6 loss.
Maybe he was too distracted from watching a clean sweep of the Chiefs fade away at the end of last week’s game. Or maybe he was still twisted up over that Thanksgiving softball question he got so worked up about earlier in the week.
Please remember that Jon Gruden does not suffer holidays. There is only one holiday in the otherwise joyless Gruden household and that is victory Monday (which is usually a Hooter catered affair). And now, because of your silly side dish question, he’s not getting to celebrate this week. —RVB
2. Carolina Panthers
When you score TWICE on fumble returns, you should be in a pretty comfortable place to win, and the Panthers were, leading Minnesota by 11 points in the fourth quarter. Matt Rhule then went through a crash course of rookie head coaching mistakes, allowing the Vikings to string together back-to-back 75-yard scoring drives, the last one to win the game. Then there was the clock mismanagement, snapping the ball early and leaving valuable seconds to burn. Oh, and that third-and-goal from the Vikings’ 3 with less than two minutes to play … they couldn’t get a play called in time, and ended up missing DJ Moore on a throw, who then got hurt. Minnesota ended up winning 28-27, and a team that looked like a fringe playoff contender is now just waiting for the season to end so its head coach can take a night class at the community college in clock management. —RVB
1. Chicago Bears
I’m not sure why we thought the Bears were good. And maybe you didn’t. But their 5-1 start to the season earned them some credibility. Looking back at it now, the only winning team they beat during that stretch was the Buccaneers. Maybe we all should have known.
I didn’t expect the Bears to win this one. Nobody on our panel picked them, which I suspect has a lot to do with the low expectations created by starting Mitchell Trubisky (and he was terrible!). What was so shocking about this one, and really an undercurrent to the team’s five-game skid, is just how bad the defense played. Tony Dungy said it looked like the defense gave up, and while I usually don’t agree with much of anything Tony Dungy has to say, I think he was on the mark here.
The Bears spent a lot of money on this defense, and there’s not much to show for it. Beyond the effort questions on the field, defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano doesn’t seem all that interested in using his front seven to get after quarterbacks—high-priced offseason addition Robert Quinn has one sack this season.
But at least now we know what this team really is. —RVB