Who had the NFL's worst rushing offense?
And which teams hid great runners behind bad schemes?
Last Wednesday, I broke down the NFL’s overachievers when it came to running the ball. While the Ravens and Titans were as good as you expect and Dalvin Cook was an island unto himself, some curious outliers shined through the data. The Eagles were better than they had any right to be. The Cardinals’ offensive line improvement persisted, clearing a path for Chase Edmonds and James Conner to have strong 2021 seasons.
Establishing the run may be more meme than valid strategy in the modern NFL, but a piston-like jab on the ground is the base that allows haymakers to land through the air. Today we’ll look at the other end of that spectrum; the teams with little choice but to leave the heavy lifting to their passing game. Only one of the league’s bottom five rushing offenses (per yards/game) made the playoffs last season. That was the Steelers, who ran for 52 total yards while getting mollywhopped by the Browns in the Wild Card round.
Here’s how last year’s advanced data broke down:
Yards before contact and yards after contact measure how far a runner gets before and after the first defender gets to him. Numbers in the red for both yards after contact and percent of yards after contact meant blocking likely wasn’t the issue; a weak tailback rotation was. A number in the red for YBC but neutral or green for YAC suggest a team’s runners outperformed expectations (helloooo Buccaneers).
Attempts per broken tackle is the rate at which a team’s runners escape a reasonable tackle try. The “Inside 5 TD rate” column measures how often a handoff inside the five yard line -- excluding quarterback sneaks and any runs for wideouts or tight ends -- ended in a touchdown.
Like we did Wednesday with the league’s top running offenses, we’ll take a look at two obvious candidates for a deeper dive -- in this case, the underperforming Steelers and Falcons -- before breaking out three other teams whose surprising results call for a closer look. Here’s a spoiler; I’m gonna heap a lot of praise on David Montgomery and James Robinson.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Notable stat: Worst in the NFL in yards per game (82.5), yards per rush (3.6) and second-worst in yards before contact (1.8).
What’s changed for 2021? Starting left tackle Alejandro Villanueva and starting left guard Matt Feiler left as free agents. Center Maurkice Pouncey retired. Replacing them wasn’t a priority; Pittsburgh plugged those holes this offseason with backups and Day 3 picks. As a result, the team’s current OL crop looks something like this:
That’s … uninspiring.
Ben Roethlisberger restructured his contract so the Steelers wouldn’t be forced to cut him. That didn’t save them enough money to make any meaningful moves on the open market aside from re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster. The team spent its first round pick on a running back, and while Najee Harris is a great addition he’s probably gonna be pretty furious the 150th time a carry up the middle blows up when Kevin Dotson is thrown directly into his path.
Can they fix this? Pittsburgh’s struggles started with an offensive line that failed to clear much space and a quarterback whose diminished arm strength failed to penalize opponents for cheating toward the line of scrimmage.
Welp.
Roethlisberger’s average target depth crashed to 6.9 yards downfield last season and isn’t likely to get any better with another year of NFL mileage on his odometer. The receiving corps remains impressive, but the running back room consists of a rookie, Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland, Jaylen Samuels and, oh no, Kalen Ballage.
2020’s results suggest Pittsburgh’s running backs actually outplayed expectations, recording above-average marks in broken tackles and YBC/YAC ratio. Unfortunately, the leader in both those categories at Heinz Field was James Conner, who is now an Arizona Cardinal.
At the very least, the 232-pound Harris -- 26 touchdowns at Alabama last year -- should keep the Steelers’ goal line rushing offense operating at the league average or better.
Atlanta Falcons
Notable stat: Second-worst in yards per carry (3.7), fourth-worst in yards before contact (2.0)
What’s changed for 2021? The Todd Gurley experiment failed after the former All-Pro gained just 675 rushing yards in 15 games. Former Carolina backup Mike Davis has arrived to replace him after a breakthrough year in Christian McCaffrey’s stead. Cordarrelle Patterson will also steal a handful of carries out of the backfield as new head coach Arthur Smith tries to figure out what to do with him besides send him out for kickoffs.
The Falcons drafted a pair of mid-draft linemen along with tight end Kyle Pitts, who isn’t known for his blocking but can at least be useful there. Center Alex Mack brought his secret world to the 49ers and James Carpenter is a free agent, which means the team may be forced to only start three former first round picks up front instead of its usual five. Not that it’s made an appreciable difference recently.
Can they fix this? The Davis signing makes a lot of sense for a team that spent its offseason mostly antagonizing its own fanbase. The veteran played behind a bottom-10 line in Carolina last year and still managed to be a net positive for his team thanks to a top 15 yards after contact number (2.4, same as Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery) and the league’s top missed tackle rate (one every 7.9 attempts).
The question is whether he can sustain that performance for a full season as his team’s RB1. Davis’ 165 carries last year were a career high, and his production tailed off as the year wore on (4.2 yards per carry his first eight games vs. 3.5 his final five). Atlanta needs him to be a full-time guy at age 28. The depth chart behind him consists of Patterson, Qadree Ollison, and Tony Brooks-James. If a lack of blocking wears Davis down early, the Falcons’ run game could be awful once again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notable stat: Worst in yards before contact (1.8), best in ratio of yards gained after contact (56 percent)
What’s changed for 2021? Pretty much nothing. Every starter from last season came back. They even found a way to add Giovani Bernard to the mix as a pass catcher from the backfield. The salary cap is a myth.
Can they fix this? The raw numbers suggest Tampa’s backs punched way above their weight class just to get the defending champs to a below-average 4.1 yards per carry last season. The Bucs’ league-worst 1.8 yards before contact was weighed down by 30 sneaks from Tom Brady, a man roughly as mobile as someone playing a mummy in an Abbott and Costello talkie, but still clocks in at 1.98 yards when you remove him from the equation. That number would still be third-worst in the NFL.
Fortunately, Tampa Bay has a triumvirate of backs who can rise above the traffic at the line of scrimmage. Ronald Jones led the league in yards after contact last season. Leonard Fournette was slightly above average in that regard, then came alive in the postseason to truly earn his Playoff Lenny moniker. Second-year back Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a home run hitter at Illinois and Vanderbilt who led the team in broken tackle rate, albeit in a 26-carry sample size.
The Tampa line’s first priority will always be to protect Brady. If it can clear the space for even a league-average YBC number then the Bucs could engineer a rushing offense capable of carrying its veteran quarterback through any disappointing performances that arise in 2021.
Chicago Bears
Notable stat: Below average in yards per carry (4.1) and yards before contact (2.2), above average in yards after contact (2.0) and attempts per broken tackle (10.1)
What’s changed for 2021? The Mitchell Trubisky era is officially over. He’ll be replaced by a combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields. All of the team’s cap space pretty much went to retaining Allen Robinson, which is probably what needed to happen. Damien Williams joins the running back room along with a healthy Tarik Cohen. He could absorb the touches Cordarrelle Patterson left behind. Charles Leno also departed, and second-round pick Teven Jenkins might wind up starting at left tackle, which could be a problem.
Can they fix this? All eyes will be on Fields as he makes the jump from “prospect no one in the top 10 wanted, for some reason?” to “next cursed Bears quarterback.” He’ll have some added support from his tailbacks, even if the blocking in front of them is glitchy.
Remove Mitchell Trubisky’s 4.4 yards before contact and you’ve got an RB-centric 2.0 YBC in Chicago -- a number that would have ranked fourth-worst in the league. That mark actually drops for Montgomery, who defenses kinda/sorta knew was getting the ball and thus limited to 1.9 yards before encountering his first tackler.
Montgomery’s YAC increased by 150 percent in his breakthrough 2020, even though his broken tackle rate remained roughly the same. What we saw last fall was a more confident runner who identified holes and began to maximize his potential in Matt Nagy’s offense. He proved he could be successful even with limited opportunity last season, and now he’ll get useful support in a hopefully full-strength Cohen, Williams (3.2 YAC in 2019), and rookie Khalil Herbert (6.1 yards per carry in college).
If the offensive line can make modest improvements and Dalton/Fields can create enough of a downfield threat to keep opponents from clogging the line of scrimmage, the Bears could field a dangerous rushing attack in 2021. Given their upcoming strength of schedule, they’ll absolutely need it if they’re going to return to the postseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable stat: 12th-worst in yards before contact (2.2), fifth-best in yards after contact (2.3)
What’s changed for 2021? A lot! Urban Meyer took over as head coach and promptly watched the free agent marketplace pass him and general manager Trent Baalke by. Despite having more money than anyone in the league, their prized signings were Shaquil Griffin, Marvin Jones, and Roy Robertson-Harris. Baby steps, I guess!
Things went much better in the draft, where mega-hyped prospect Trevor Lawrence will take over for Gardner Minshew at quarterback. His Clemson teammate Travis Etienne joined him as the team’s other first round pick, which is a weird look at a time where first round tailbacks have fallen out of vogue and there’s already a 22-year-old, 1,000-yard rusher in the lineup, but whatever. Second round tackle Walker Little and new tight ends Chris Manhertz and Luke Farrell could also play a role in opening holes for the team’s running game.
Also, Carlos Hyde is there, too. He’ll come out of nowhere to fritter away way more carries than anyone expected because that’s what late stage Carlos Hyde does.
Can they fix this? Jacksonville is fairly middling, but deserves its own section just so we can talk about how great James Robinson is. The undrafted free agent wasn’t a lock to make the roster last preseason, yet bowled his way into a starting role and absolutely CRUSHED IT for a team in dire need of bright spots.
23 players averaged more yards per carry than Robinson last season. None of them had a yard before contact average as low as the rookie’s 1.9 last fall. As a result, the Jags were one of only four teams last season to average more yards after contact than before.
The Jags had six rush attempts from inside the five-yard line. Robinson got five of those. He scored on all five. James Robinson is life. James Robinson is love.
Now Etienne joins the fray to help Robinson avoid burnout and maybe/sorta play wideout? Again, it’s tough to tell just what this team is under Meyer, who really seems like the wrong man for the job. This, of course, makes him the perfect man to lead the Jaguars.