Who won the Sam Darnold trade? Everyone!
Plus Aaron Rodgers on Jeopardy and how to better enjoy the NFL Draft.
Trading Sam Darnold to the Panthers was a win for both sides
The Jets won't be trading back from the No. 2 pick.
That became abundantly clear Monday as New York used the cover of a blowout NCAA title game to ship Sam Darnold to the Panthers in exchange for a 2021 sixth-round pick and second- and fourth-rounders in 2022. The only quarterbacks currently on the Jets' roster are James Morgan and Mike White which means that, barring disaster (always a viable option for the Jets), a gunslinger will be the team's first-round choice on draft day.
It's a move that celebrates a new era under head coach Robert Saleh. Darnold's memeable moments outweighed the good in his three seasons in New York. He languished under a limited supporting cast and the ever-alert, rarely sensible glare of Adam Gase. He failed to live up to his billing as a player the Jets traded up to draft at No. 3. He failed to live up to the billing of the last USC quarterback New York took in the first round before him, Mark Sanchez.
Woof.
But, just like in the regular season, I don't care about the Jets right now. I'm way more interested in how Darnold is going to look in black and teal in the Queen City.
Why did the Panthers make this move?
Darnold’s arrival and the club’s subsequent pickup of his $18 million 2022 contract option (it’s not a massive commitment — that extra year is only guaranteed if he gets injured) will shift incumbent starter Teddy Bridgewater to the bench, at least for the time being. With $20 million of dead 2021 money attached to the three-year, $63 million contract he signed last spring, there’s no great reason to move on from the young veteran. He’ll serve as a high-leverage backup and guiding light for second-year head coach Matt Rhule’s system and step back into the spotlight if Darnold falters.
Bridgewater was a solid game manager and a great comeback story for the Panthers, but he's not built to be a high-octane gunslinger in the NFL. His 15 touchdown passes last season were a career high. His average pass depth improved after being freed from the short-range attack of the Saints, but still clocked in at only 6.8 yards — 34th-highest among 44 QBs who threw at least 100 passes last season. His passer rating + stat — a metric inspired by baseball's ERA+ that adjusts a player's rating to the average rating around the league, checked out at dead-nuts average.
In short, Bridgewater is a reliable but unexciting player in the same vein as Tyrod Taylor. His hot start was unsustainable but he's likely not as bad as he was over the final five games of 2020. He's also 28 years old, and his capacity for further growth is limited. This is who Teddy Bridgewater is.
We don't know what Darnold is. We're familiar with the memes and all the other Bram Stoker curses the Jets organization placed on his shoulders simply by association, but he remains a bit of an enigma.
New York traded up to draft him, then surrounded him with one of the league's worst WR/TE rotations for THREE STRAIGHT YEARS as though it were some kind of long-developing prank. Le'Veon Bell was paid big money against Gase’s wishes and lasted 17 mediocre games as Darnold's run support. The Jets handed out more than $78 million in free agent offensive line contracts between 2019 and 2020 only to see him get sacked on a career-worst 8.8 percent of his dropbacks anyway. HE GOT MONO, FOR GOD'S SAKE, AND THIS IS HOW THE TEAM REACTED:
Sam Darnold was not set up to thrive in New York. His 7-6 record as a starter in 2019 under a deranged, caffeine-addled, pizza-shotgunning Adam Gase puts him 1/3rd of the way to sainthood. The Panthers, forced to choose between a maligned former prospect and a draft where they *might* have gotten 2021's fifth-best QB, opted to rescue Darnold.
It could work. Matt Rhule was an innovator who did more with less in college stops at Temple and Baylor (watch the 2018 Texas Bowl win over Vanderbilt if you're bored one day. It RULES).
His Bears went from 1-11 to a spot in the Sugar Bowl in three seasons thanks primarily to a surging defense, but his offenses — which leapt from 98th to 27th in points per game in that span — deserve mentioning as well. His 2019 squad saw Charlie Brewer rise from middling three-star recruit to 3,000-yard All-Big 12 passer. He rode a solid 1-2 punch at wideout (current Jet Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton) to push Baylor to a conference title game.
Darnold, a former five-star recruit with better raw tools than Brewer, will now fill that role. His wideout tandem of D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson provide more quality and depth at receiver than he'd ever had in New York. He's also got a ready-built bond to rely on with Anderson after a rookie Darnold helped push the former seventh-round pick to a breakthrough 964-yard season back in 2017.
The best version of Rhule’s offense in Waco saw the Bears utilize the play-action fake to create gaps downfield, then throw the ball right the hell through them.
This is something that would be a change — and potential upgrade — for Darnold. The Jets only ranked among the top half of play-action teams once in his three seasons with the team. A transition to an offense that softens secondaries while allowing more time to throw would give his five-star arm a chance to blossom in a way we only saw glimpses of in New York.
(an aside: way too many of Darnold’s play-action throws in New York came off his back foot, even when he had a clean pocket. He still completed the bulk of his passes, but instead of hitting a guy in stride he typically hung them out to dry in a way that slashed their yards-after-catch opportunity. Rhule is going to have to drill this right the hell out of Darnold’s DNA if he wants to unlock something better than what the Jets gave up on.)
The Panthers also have the player New York hoped it was getting when it signed Bell in 2019 with Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s difference-making runs out of the backfield and expertise as a pass catcher will provide a tremendous safety net for a newfound QB walking the tightrope between “potential bust” and “possible franchise savior.” No opponent is going to buy your play-action setup without the kind of running back they have to worry about (with apologies to Ty Johnson, Lamical Perine, post-crisis Bell, and everyone else who underwhelmed in the NY backfield). McCaffrey has plenty to prove after playing just three games and averaging a career-worst 3.8 yards per carry last season, but he should still be an upgrade if he can even approach his 2019 form.
We’ll likely see more of an underrated aspect of Darnold’s game in Charlotte as well; his ability to avoid pressure and create big plays with his legs.
The young passer progressed as a scrambler despite dialed-up pressure last fall. His 26 scrambles were a career high and his eight yards per scramble tied a personal best. This will be useful for Rhule, who coaxed 11 rushing touchdowns from Brewer in 2019’s Sugar Bowl season (Brewer had only four in nine games in Baylor’s first post-Rhule campaign last year).
Brewer isn’t the only QB to set personal rushing and scrambling records under the current Carolina playcaller. Rhule’s offense made the most of Bridgewater’s elusiveness in 2020. His 7.4 yards per scramble were more than double his average in two years as a Saint. His 279 rushing yards and five touchdowns were both career bests.
Bridgewater did that behind an offensive line that allowed pressure on 19.8 percent of his dropbacks. Darnold’s pressure rate has never been that low in his NFL career, settling at 27.7 percent over the last two seasons.
The Panthers’ top two free agent additions, Pat Elflein and Cameron Fleming, are both linemen who should help add a little extra protection in tight situations. The team’s draft position at eighth overall will present the opportunity to add another elite blocker (even if Penei Sewell doesn’t slide down the draft board, Northwestern jack-of-all-trades Rashawn Slater could be a proper fit in teal) or dynamic receiving talent to fill the void current Washington Football Teamer Curtis Samuel left behind.
The opportunity for success in Carolina is very real. Darnold is a flawed passer with the DNA of a much better player hiding underneath a battered exterior. Coaxing a turnaround year won’t be easy, but Rhule’s brief head coaching career has been predicated on flipping fixer-uppers with good bones into successful programs.
The Panthers knew they probably weren’t going to get a franchise QB in this year’s draft. The Jets’ willingness to deal Darnold and San Francisco’s giant payment to get the third overall selection meant the top three passers this spring were out of reach. Moving up to the fourth spot would have required a significant overpay given the Niners’ willingness to empty their war chest.
Instead, Carolina paid a smaller cost to track down a former top-three pick with unexplored potential whose usage as a pro has been iffy at best. Rhule can offer Darnold a major upgrade over the offense he ran in New York, but if he doesn’t his struggles will only push the Panthers toward the top of the 2022 Draft — where the team can target its next QB project instead.
The Jets got a handful of picks for a player who wasn’t in their plans anymore. Carolina got a quarterback capable of being much more than he was in three forgettable NFL seasons to start his career. That’s a good trade for both teams, even if the Darnold era in Charlotte produces more memes than playoff appearances. — CD
And now, here is the guest host of Jeopardy …
When Aaron Rodgers first announced that he was going to be a guest host on Jeopardy, I initially figured it was akin to stunt casting. I knew Rodgers, who once won on Celebrity Jeopardy, was a fan of the show, but it’s not like I thought he actually would — or wanted to — succeed Alex Trebek.
And while I still think it’s a long shot Rodgers will get the gig full-time, I have to admit: two episodes into his two-week run, he’s pretty good!
Trebek was such a legend, and had done the job for nearly 40 years, that he made being the host seem so effortless. He balanced all his roles perfectly, everything from knowing how to respond to correct and incorrect responses, to pronouncing words like Nouakchott and Götterfunken, to keeping track of whose turn it was, to making sure the game was moving along on time and the contestants felt at ease. That’s much harder than it might appear.
Rodgers, who is used to processing information quickly, has risen to the challenge. He hasn’t been stilted, nor has he tripped over words. He’s been comfortable enough to slip in a joke (“Turd Ferguson”), add commentary (admitting he had never heard of a “sackbut” after a triple stumper), or offer an impression (reading “prettay, prettay good” in Larry David’s voice as part of a clue), and he’s also been willing to laugh at himself:
He even had a nice rapport with the contestants during their interview portion, and I’m impressed with anyone who can get through a couple minutes of small talk with strangers, especially after we’ve all been isolated for the past year. It might be the most affable I’ve ever seen him.
Considering Rodgers is a very successful quarterback, it should come as no surprise that he diligently prepared for his guest stint, grinding away on hours and hours of Jeopardy tape. What is more surprising is that he’d love to have the permanent job and thinks he could play in the NFL and host Jeopardy simultaneously.
I’m not so sure how doable that is, or if Jeopardy would pick someone who is much more famous away from the show, but if nothing else, Rodgers’ performance would’ve made Trebek proud:
And maybe the threat of Rodgers winning the Jeopardy gig will be enough for the Packers to finally placate him by drafting a wide receiver in the first round this year?
Nah, probably not. — SH
How I learned to stop worrying and enjoy the NFL Draft
Is Trevor Lawrence the best player in the draft? Probably! There seems to be a pretty widespread consensus that he is at least the best quarterback. Justin Fields seems to be pretty good too. And that other dude who’s going to be a top-three pick; I can’t remember his name.
I don’t watch college football. All those years I was on the NFL beat, Saturdays were my only day off, and I couldn’t justify spending one more moment watching sports that day. It’s a habit that’s carried over, and quite frankly, I just don’t care much about the sport anyway. (Let’s be honest, there’s only so much space a healthy brain can devote to sports.) However, I did spend every spring getting really, really familiar with players in the draft. When you cover the sport and edit so many wonderful, smart writers like I was fortunate enough to do, I got a crash course from January through April on the ins and outs of a lot of players.
But even with that immersion into the topic, you’re still only getting to know maybe 20 percent, if we’re being generous, of some 260 players in the draft and oodles of UDFAs who get picked up after the draft. Of the whole bunch, you don’t really get to know what a player is going to do in the NFL until you actually see them play.
This year, the third year in a row, I enter the draft virtually ignorant about it all … other than what you pick up from the inane coverage of the sport.
It’s better that way.
First, predictions are hard. Even for the people who spend hours to be experts on this stuff. Sam Bradford was certified can’t-miss prospect coming into the 2010 NFL Draft. I know because I covered him and consumed every bloody word written about him. Guess what? They missed! Bradford had his moments, but because of injuries and some rotten coaching—and just maybe he wasn’t as good in the NFL as he was in flashes at Oklahoma—he couldn’t even reach that okay backup level of play.
It’s worse for those type of sure things because the bar is set so high before they even begin their careers. What was your impression of Josh Allen after two years? Suddenly, he’s one of the best quarterbacks playing right now, and one of the most exciting players to watch. Which proves another point, shit changes fast in the NFL. To go from hyped draft prospect to BUST to MVP candidate in a three-year span is, well, it’s something.
Second, don’t underestimate the surprise of it all. For me, the trades were always the most exciting part of the draft. That, and looking at a team’s haul of players and thinking about the potential they brought. But you kind of had to know which players a team was going to come away with before you could start to actually visualize something.
And let’s not undersell the thrill of seeing a player break out and having to go back and see just who in the hell this rando fifth-round pick is.
Another bonus to not following the same tedious analysis and anonymous reporting closely in the lead up to the draft is that you avoid sooooooo much stupidity. Your mental health is too valuable to get bogged down in what some dumb bro who’ll unquestioningly repeat whatever crap he’s been told by a “team source” to protect his access.
This draft won’t be the most fun one for me. No, those came when I had the privilege of working night and day side by side with some of my favorite people ever back in the day. But this draft will be the most pleasantly surprising one I’ve seen. —RVB