Which playoff teams won’t be back in 2021?
Plus, some beefy free agent options and a practical lesson about procrastination
Parity is a big deal in the NFL. A hard salary cap makes it difficult to build a dynasty, and each season brings a fresh crop of new contenders while old ones retreat to uninteresting Januaries.
Last year, the Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Eagles, and Vikings all dropped out of the postseason despite an expanded 14-team playoff field. They’ll have a chance to reclaim their glory next season, but it will come at the expense of a team that had Super Bowl 54 hopes when last year’s regular season wrapped.
It’s too early to say definitively who looks like a playoff squad for 2021 and who doesn’t. Free agency and the draft will transform some rosters into world-beaters and others into also-rans. But knowing what we know now — returning starters, salary cap space, draft position, and last year’s results — we can make some vaguely educated guesses about which teams won’t return to the postseason next winter.
It won’t be ...
Not going anywhere
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens
These teams have stable, upper-tier quarterbacks, which is a sentence that somehow includes a 44-year-old Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are primed to battle for MVPs over the next decade, and the Bills’ above-average defense insulates the team from any regression that may follow Allen’s breakthrough 2020. The Packers will have to balance a tenuous cap situation with getting Aaron Rodgers some receiving help and upgrading a middling defense, but they should be fine given the relative weakness of the NFC North.
Baltimore may be the biggest question here given Lamar Jackson’s backslide last fall and several pending free agents. However, general manager Eric DeCosta has continued a tradition of solid team building with the Ravens, and his club may be just a playmaker or two away from contending again — and the 2021 NFL Draft is chock full of wideout talent capable of restoring Jackson’s peak value.
Probably not going anywhere, but they’re still the Browns
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland finally turned its potential into production in 2020. New head coach Kevin Stefanski unlocked the good version of Baker Mayfield, in spite of (or possibly because?) Odell Beckham Jr. being sidelined for the bulk of the season. But the Browns’ young defense ranked a troubling 25th in defensive efficiency. General manager Andrew Berry will have to use his $20+ million in cap space to pair useful veterans with emerging talent, especially given the depth of the AFC North.
It’s gonna depend on rebuilding some janky quarterbacks
Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Football Team
The Steelers got Ben Roethlisberger to restructure his contract in order to carve out some badly needed salary cap space. Now they need him to be the high-impact passer he was in his early 30s after regressing to a check-down, risk-averse quarterback in 2020. His average throw depth shrank despite a solid receiving corps and resulted in the lowest yards-per-attempt figure in a full season of his entire career —and by a wide margin. The defense looks like a steady playoff foundation, but it also gave up nearly 29 points per game in Pittsburgh’s final six matchups (where the team went 1-5).
The Colts have young talent all over their lineup, but may have been screwed when their oldest talent, Philip Rivers, retired despite a solid age 38 season. Carson Wentz will now start in his place. While reuniting with the former coordinator who made him briefly great in Philadelphia (head coach Frank Reich) and playing with a depth chart that isn’t riddled with injury designations will help, he sure looked like one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks last year.
Washington currently has two quarterbacks on its roster: Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez. They’ll likely add a fresh face in free agency or via trade, but Matthew Stafford has already been moved, Deshaun Watson can veto any godfather offer the Football Team makes, and Jameis Winston could be the best hired gun available.
The infrastructure exists to compete in D.C. thanks to a top-five defense and some young skill players. An average quarterback can make this a winning team. But when have we ever trusted the Washington Football Team to do things correctly?
The Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
Yeah, they get their own section because it’s tough to gauge exactly where this team will be in 2021. Tennessee broke its own nine-win inertia last fall, then parlayed that into absolutely nothing in a Wild Card Round loss to the Ravens. The offense is more than just Derrick Henry, but decisions will need to be made on the futures of Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis, who combined for more than a third of the team’s total receptions and nearly 40 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns last season.
The Titans’ 29th-ranked defense was by far the worst of any playoff team last year, setting the stage for regression. They’ll also have to deal with a wasted 2020 first-round pick now that Isaiah Wilson, who was supposed to be the team’s next cornerstone at offensive tackle, appears to have played out his string in Nashville after four total snaps. The rest of the AFC South, sans Texans, is rising. Tennessee is vulnerable.
It’s the NFC West man, who knows?
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Two teams led by trusted veteran quarterbacks and stars on either side of the ball. But Russell Wilson kinda/sorta wants out of Seattle and Matthew Stafford’s wish to escape the cursed franchise of Detroit may be a monkey’s paw situation now that he’s landed among the Rams’ jumbled roster.
Los Angeles, with a top-five defense and a dynamic new quarterback to replace the low-impact throws Jared Goff had fallen into the past year-plus, appear to be in the better situation thanks to a handful of stars on the roster. The Seahawks have the division’s best quarterback, a wayward Transformer at wideout, and a middle-of-the-road defense/offensive line situation. These are all manageable situations, but I’m more worried about their postseason returns thanks to the rest of the division.
The Cardinals have been rising under Kliff Kingsbury, and while Kyler Murray’s passing game remains a bit disjointed, his offense still scored more points than all but five other teams in 2020. His defense will likely say goodbye to Patrick Peterson and Haason Reddick, but will also get a revitalized J.J. Watt and a healthy Chandler Jones in the lineup.
The 49ers ranked 11th in weighted DVOA last year despite starting three different underwhelming quarterbacks and losing players like George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Jacquiski Tartt, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Nick Bosa for at least half the season due to injury. They’ve got a whole lot of tough decisions to make in free agency, but the talent here remains playoff-worthy, even if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a franchise QB.
This is the NFL’s toughest division. There aren’t any easy outs here. Some very good NFC West team isn’t going to make the playoffs, and that’s a bummer.
I have concerns
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will likely be breaking in a new full-time starting quarterback in 2021. This wasn’t a problem when Drew Brees was injured the past two seasons due to the depth and star power across the board in New Orleans.
It could be a problem in 2021, because no team in the league has a sadder cap situation than the Saints, and veteran talent is about to be cast over the rails like ballast on a sinking ship. Are we ready to buy into Taysom Hill as a more explosive passer than late-stage Brees when he’s only thrown a dozen passes of 20+ yards in his whole career? With nearly $50 million in cuts still needing to be made, what will the future of rising stars like Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk look like?
The good news is the draft will bring inexpensive talent to Louisiana, and Mickey Loomis has emerged as one of the game’s better judges of college talent. The bad news is there’s no way 2021’s team can be as good on paper as the 2020 version … and the 2020 version’s only playoff win came over Mitchell Trubisky.
Trubisky, the reigning NVP (Nickelodeon Valuable Player), is set for free agency and Nick Foles underwhelmed in his Chicago debut. Once again, the Bears are on the hunt for a franchise quarterback, and while Russell Wilson may have them on his wish list (which, why?) it seems unlikely they’ll find a major upgrade behind center.
David Montgomery looked like an upper-crust tailback toward the end of the season and should only get better when Tarik Cohen returns at full strength. A potent defense remained a top-10 unit. But Chicago is coming off a .500 season, currently has negative cap space, and only beat one playoff team last season (and it happened when Tom Brady forgot how many downs you get in football). The Bears will probably be roughly the same as they were in 2020, but that probably won’t be enough to make the playoffs unless injuries ravage fellow NFC contenders like the Cowboys and 49ers once more. — CD
Say the line
As usual, quarterbacks are dominating the conversation this offseason. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff swapped teams. Carson Wentz was sent to Indianapolis. Russell Wilson maybe wants out of Seattle. Deshaun Watson definitely wants a divorce from the Texans. Drew Brees is going to retire … or not? And in draft talk, the Zach Wilson and Mac Jones stans are out in full force, annoying the rest of us.
Wide receivers are getting plenty of attention, too. Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, and Kenny Golladay, will be hot commodities on the free agent market, if they aren’t franchise tagged. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s time in Pittsburgh could be done. And although there won’t be a record number of receivers taken in the first two rounds of the draft like last year, there are a few outrageously talented wideouts who will be Day 1 picks, like Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.
Meanwhile, the beefy dudes who have the all-important job of protecting the prized QB so he can throw to those speedy receivers aren’t being talked about as much. So let’s do just that! Offensive line might not be the sexiest position group, but they deserve their time in the spotlight too.
We’re in luck, because there are several terrific OL options in free agency and the draft. (The Panthers are keeping Taylor Moton around with the franchise tag, but everyone else is, so far, up for grabs.) I picked one potential fit for eight of the available linemen — half of whom are free agents-to-be and half of whom are NFL prospects.
Trent Williams, OT
Potential fit: Colts
Williams was traded after sitting out the 2019 season, and he didn’t miss a beat, continuing his All-Pro-caliber play in his first, and maybe only, year in San Francisco. If the 49ers let him hit free agency, other teams will be ready to pounce on the 32-year-old left tackle. The Colts would be one of them, and they have both the spending room and the hole to fill. Their 10-year starter at left tackle, Anthony Castonzo, retired in January, and new quarterback Carson Wentz will need a trustworthy blindside protector to help get him over the yips.
Brandon Scherff, OG
Potential fit: Seahawks
If Washington doesn’t tag Scherff for the second straight year ($18 million is a lot to pay for a guard!), then he could decide to test free agency. The Seahawks don’t have a ton of money to spend, but they do have an unhappy quarterback who has made it clear he would like to stop getting hit so much. One easy way to appease Russell Wilson, and maybe stop him from flirting with other teams, is to sign the best guard on the market.
Joe Thuney, OG
Potential fit: Giants
Bill Belichick probably won’t give Thuney the franchise tag again, so why not go where so many other former Patriots go? Thuney could reunite with Joe Judge if the Giants clear some cap space, which can happen by dumping Nate Solder and Kevin Zeitler. That’d create room for Thuney, who would be the veteran presence and upgrade at guard that this OL needs.
Corey Linsley, C
Potential fit: Chargers
Despite coming off his first All-Pro season with the Packers, Linsley thinks he’ll most likely be playing for a new team in 2021. The Chargers were without starting center Mike Pouncey all of last season due to injury, and recently Pouncey decided to retire. Dan Feeney, who moved over from guard to take Pouncey’s place in 2020, is a free agent. Linsley would not only be an improvement over Feeney, but he’d also be a valuable resource for a young quarterback like Justin Herbert.
Penei Sewell, OT
Potential fit: Bengals
The Bengals drafting an offensive lineman in the first round? Why, that never happens! But really, this has been in the cards for over a year, whenever it became clear that the Bengals were going to draft Joe Burrow. Last year’s No. 1 pick, who was getting hit at a record pace for rookie quarterbacks, is coming off a major knee injury and deserves the best left tackle the draft has to offer.
Rashawn Slater, OT
Potential fit: 49ers
This makes sense if the 49ers don’t re-sign Williams, though some are projecting Slater as a guard in the NFL. Still, he’s shown he has what it takes to be a left tackle at the next level, and that’s what a team should draft him as. Either way, in a division with Aaron Donald, Chandler Jones, and now J.J. Watt, the 49ers could use all the offensive line help they can get.
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/OG
Potential fit: Bills
The Bills don’t have a lot of cap space and they’re losing a few linemen to free agency, including 2020 starters Daryl Williams and Jon Feliciano. Vera-Tucker, who played guard at USC before switching to left tackle last year, has the versatility the Bills are looking for — if he’s still on the board when they pick at No. 30.
Wyatt Davis, OG
Potential fit: Vikings
Injuries didn’t stop Davis from putting together another All-American season at Ohio State, but they may cost him some draft position. The Vikings are set to pick at No. 14, and per usual, offensive line is something they need to address this offseason. That’s probably too high of a spot for Davis, though GM Rick Spielman has a tendency of trading down in the draft. If he does again, Davis could be waiting for the Vikings at the end of the first round or on Day 2.
Mostly, though, it’d be neat for Davis to end up in Minnesota, just like his dad in Little Big League:
— SH
Rumor report
Deshaun Watson for Kyler Murray
There aren’t a lot of straight up player-for-player trades in the NFL, certainly not when it comes to star players. But there should be. Outwardly, the Texans don’t seem to be entertaining a Watson deal, which seems pretty consistent with the franchise’s elite ability to function within an alternative reality. That may change when the threat of their QB not playing games becomes more tangible.
To be clear, this isn’t a rumor. It’s an idea cooked up by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. But credit the guy for thinking big.
Why I like this: Assuming Murray would accept a trade to Houston and not leave for MLB, Houston gets a great young QB with three years left on his rookie deal. That alone negates the need for a package full of first-round picks. The Cardinals, meanwhile, become instant contenders with Watson.
More importantly, a deal like this could set a new precedent for more superstar-for-superstar trades, where the cap concerns factor the way draft picks do. Sure, teams will ultimately be reluctant to move players on team-friendly deals, especially quarterbacks, but the fact that the threshold has been crossed once opens up the possibility of seeing one or two BIG swaps every couple of seasons.
I have no stake in what happens with Houston or Arizona. But I do enjoy offseason intrigue. But right now, we don’t get as much of that as we could. The big free agent swing is mostly settled over a long weekend, and there’s another blip of excitement in the 24 hours or so around the first night of the NFL draft. But other than that, you have to be especially attuned to backup guards and outside linebackers to really enjoy the NFL’s version of the hot stove. If the league wants to gin up more fan interest in the offseason, this would be a helluva lot better than primetime schedule releases and daily reports from OTAs. —RVB
A lesson in procrastination
I derive a certain amount of enjoyment in things going badly for Jerry Jones. The problem, however, is that he’s got a team with a lot of likable players, especially Dak Prescott. And, my god, they have royally fucked things up with their quarterback.
Contract negotiations seems to be going nowhere, or at least moving slowly enough that Dallas is going to have to slap him with the franchise tag again this year. The problem with that, for the Cowboys, is that Dak’s second tag will run them in excess of $37 million for this year. So for a team with about $20 million in cap space, that’s a problem.
Of course, this all could have been handled long before it got to this point. There were hangups about the average annual amount of the deal and the length of it (Dak wanted four years; the Cowboys wanted more).
This might prompt Dallas to be more accepting of a long-term deal—that would still likely mean some tough choices for the salary cap. But the real lesson here, kids, is don’t procrastinate! —RVB