The Chiefs have better celebrity fans than the Bucs
The Chiefs have better celebrity fans than the Bucs
Also, an offseason to-do list that will make the 49ers great again, the foolishness of trading Derek Carr, and the Colts QB situation
The 49ers are one great offseason from contending again
The 49ers have the worst quarterback situation in the NFC West. This was up for debate when their 2020 season ended, but confirmed when the Rams sent their short-term draft future to Detroit in exchange for Matthew Stafford.
Jimmy Garoppolo, once the recipient of a five-year, $137.5 million contract extension, no longer looks like a surefire franchise cornerstone. Injuries limited him to fewer than seven games for the second time in the three full seasons he’s spent in San Francisco. When he did play, he looked indecisive and unwilling to take big shots downfield. The Niners went 3-3 in his starts and 6-10 overall as the reigning NFC champions failed to defend that title.
There’s good news that comes from that flameout. San Francisco is set to pick 12th in this year’s draft, setting the team up to add an impact rookie. The 49ers are also projected to have a little under $10 million in spending money this offseason despite a shrinking salary cap — not much, but still an above-average number for 2021. Trading or releasing Garoppolo could wipe another $23 million from their slate.
This is important, because the way general manager John Lynch spends that cash will dictate whether the Niners remain a win-now team or slide into a rebuild. He’s got major decisions looming on pending free agents Trent Williams, Solomon Thomas, Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, and Kyle Juszczyk (laugh at Joose’s inclusion if you want, but his signing was the crux of the Kyle Shanahan era in the Bay Area). He also needs to figure out a contract extension for Fred Warner and keep enough cap flexibility to do the same for Nick Bosa (and possibly right tackle Mike McGlinchey) in 2022.
What comes first?
Trading or releasing Garoppolo only makes sense if a clear upgrade is available
Trading Garoppolo would send a similar message to the one the Rams broadcast last weekend. “Yes, this guy we thought was our future and paid accordingly is still in his 20s … and we are declaring bankruptcy on him.”
There’s some logic to it. Garoppolo, like Jared Goff, has spent the past two years dialing back his big throws and opting for shorter routes that compress the field and make life more difficult for his running game. After averaging 9 air yards per pass in a 5-1 stint as San Francisco’s late-2017 savior, that number dropped to 6.3 in 2019 and 6.2 last fall.
That ‘19 team still won the conference because of Garoppolo’s short-range accuracy, a top-two rushing attack, and a cadre of targets (GEORGE KITTLE) that averaged nearly six yards after catch every time their quarterback hit them in stride (no other team cracked 5.4 YAC). This was, effectively, the perfect situation to make Garoppolo work. The ‘20 team saw a slight regression from its top QB, but also was ripped apart by injuries to its tailbacks and wideouts. Even if Garoppolo were healthy, he probably wouldn’t have been enough to take his team back to the Super Bowl.
The Niners’ passing offense took a step backward when handing the reins to Nick Mullens and, later, CJ Beathard. The question is whether that dropoff is worth $23 million. Mullens threw a similar diet of passes (a dead-on 6.3 intended yards per toss) and generally couldn’t recapture the wonder of his out-of-nowhere 2018 kinda/sorta breakthrough.
Beathard threw downfield more often and completed less of his passes, but he also recorded a sparkling 6:0 TD:INT ratio in his limited appearances. This would be encouraging if
The bulk of his 2020 passing hadn’t come against regrettable defenses like Philadelphia, Dallas, and Seattle
This sample size weren’t troublingly small, and
He wasn’t already 27 years old and very much still CJ Beathard.
So, the idea of an upgrade from the existing depth chart is almost certainly out (though the team may still re-sign Mullens, who is a restricted free agent). Adding a veteran free agent quarterback to replace Garoppolo is a possibility, but this year’s options — a class headed by Cam Newton, Jacoby Brissett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Jameis Winston — isn’t entirely appealing.
The 49ers were rumored to be in preliminary talks with the Lions for Stafford. They’ve been tenuously tied to another NFC North team for their veteran starting quarterback, but that all feels like standard “Kyle Shanahan and Kirk Cousins reunite” fan fiction that crops up whenever Cousins is moderately available. (Besides, is Cousins even an upgrade over the less-expensive Garoppolo? I’m not so sure.)
That leaves some trade options. Deshaun Watson would be a godsend, but also gunk up future caps while taking away the first-round picks Lynch has used to cultivate starters like Thomas, McGlinchey, Bosa, and Brandon Aiyuk. It would be a similar predicament with Dak Prescott if his impasse in Dallas continues. I’m not saying San Francisco shouldn’t offer up massive draft considerations to bring in either of these franchise-altering talents, just that Lynch has typically been the one adding first-rounders rather than trading them away.
Who else is available? Carson Wentz would ruin the club’s salary sheet while providing zero guaranteed boost behind center — and firing Doug Pederson suggests Philly’s gonna try to stick it out with him anyway. Derek Carr or Teddy Bridgewater could be moved, or they could remain entrenched in their current homes depending on how the 2021 draft and the rest of the offseason shake out.
Nick Foles wouldn’t be too hard to pry out of Chicago, but what’s the f***ing point? Case Keenum would be a fun addition, but Kevin Stefanski knows what he’s capable of as a high-value backup and there’s no guarantee he’d give the 49ers anything above replacement-level quarterbacking. Same with Marcus Mariota in Las Vegas.
There are a lot of variables, and even if a trade market fails to materialize, the Niners can wait out the storm and hope Mullens/Beathard can do enough to compete in the NFC West for a team capable of Trent Dilfer-ing their way to a Super Bowl. Of course, it won’t be *that* simple.
Hooooo boy, there are some *big* free agent decisions coming due
Trent Williams is likely at the top of Lynch’s priority list. While the investment the GM paid Washington to free the Pro Bowl left tackle is a sunk cost (a 2020 fifth-rounder and a ‘21 third), the veteran has played well enough to earn a long-term deal as a blindside protector. Although he’ll be 33 next season, the longevity of similarly-respected tackles like Andrew Whitworth and Jason Peters should convince the Niners to lock him down for something like four years and $78 million.
Well hey, we just ate up all Lynch’s cap space with one signing! This means sacrifices will have to be made, even if Garoppolo and his $26m cap hit leave town. Let’s take a deeper look at the defense, which has been excellent the past two seasons but will be without coordinator Robert Saleh after he left to take the Jets’ cursed head coaching gig.
Former No. 3 overall pick Solomon Thomas, who played only two games last season due to injury, is likely gone unless he’s willing to take less than market value. Kerry Hyder had a breakthrough season as an injury replacement at end (8.5 sacks, 18 QB hits), but is a free agent as well and likely played himself out of SF’s price range.
That’s okay! Dee Ford, who played only one game last year, is still on the roster. Trading him after June 1 could clear $15+ million in cap space, but suitors will be limited after two disappointing years with the Niners. 2021 will give him a chance to restore his value, and either establish him as an entrenched starter or possible trade chip. If Lynch isn’t convinced that’s the case, he can target one of the high-upside, low-floor pass rushers likely available at No. 12 in this year’s draft. If Javon Kinlaw can realize his potential, it may not matter who occupies the other tackle spot up front in Santa Clara.
Addressing the defensive backfield will be tougher. Richard Sherman is a 33-year-old cornerback whose size insulates him slightly from the steep curve most defensive backs face in their 30s, but a decline remains a risk and the veteran appears geared for another run at free agency. If someone comes calling with a two-year, $12 million deal, that will likely be the end of his 49ers tenure.
Jason Verrett would have been 2020’s Comeback Player of the Year if not for Alex Smith and while a year like his would typically lead to a big contract, his injury history suggests Lynch could be able to snap him up on a short-term deal. Something like two years (with a player option in year 2022) and $9 million annually would keep him in maroon and gold, though his past and this spring’s reduced cap make him tough to pin down.
Sitting at the equator of the Niners’ defensive lineup is Fred Warner, who just made his first All-Pro team as the middle linebacker that held together a battered unit. He won’t be a free agent until 2022, but inking him to an extension in the midst of a cap shrink could produce long-term savings. Unfortunately for Lynch, coming up with the 2021 capital is going to be difficult. This spring/summer is probably going to be wait-and-see for Warner, but expect him to be a very rich man either this year or next.
Finally there’s Kyle Juszczyk, the highest-paid fullback in NFL history. He earned an average of $5.25 million annually since 2017, which is pretty expensive for a guy who only played more than 43 percent of his team’s snaps in one of those four seasons. Yet his versatility as a blocker, sure-handed receiver, and occasional short-yardage battering ram made him a trusted piece of Shanahan’s puzzle.
There’s no way he’ll get another four-year, $21 million deal headed into his 30s. Still, Juszczyk is a tenet in the Lynch-Shanahan philosophy, a trusted veteran, and an ideal presence to shepherd in whatever the next, post-Garoppolo movement in Niners history happens to be. He may have to settle for regular fullback money this time around, but something like three more years and $9 million would probably be a win for both sides.
So, there you go. Ushering Garoppolo out of town would create a good chunk of the cap space Lynch needs to retain vital stars elsewhere. It likely can’t be done without creating a noticeable, but possibly not fatal, decline in the San Francisco offense. The Niners could wait that out for a year and start fresh with either a draft prospect or a trusted veteran in 2022, but that would waste another year for a team currently built for contention everywhere but quarterback.
This postseason wasn’t a great omen for game-managing quarterbacks out there. The final four passers standing were this season’s top three MVP candidates and the greatest playoff QB of all time. Teams like the Saints and Steelers bolstered low-impact, short-pass-dependent offenses with elite defenses and neither made it beyond the Divisional Round.
But San Francisco made it to Super Bowl 54 with a version of Garoppolo that ranked between Drew Brees and Derek Carr at the very bottom of 2019’s intended air yards per pass rankings. With the young veteran looking like the team’s best option for 2021, Lynch and Shanahan may be best served trying to figure out how to make that work again. — CD
The Raiders don’t need to trade Derek Carr
It was interesting to see Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr get tagged in a trade rumor this week, curiously timed right after the Rams-Lions blockbuster deal for Matthew Stafford. You don’t have to be a detective to see that the Carr rumors most likely originated with the Raiders themselves. That the Raiders are expected to field calls about Carr and the team’s history of being anything but definitive about his status as a franchise quarterback since Jon Gruden was hired tells you a lot about the source of those whispers.
Also thrown into that report is that the Raiders could then potentially be suitors for Deshaun Watson, as if there aren’t roughly 25 or so teams that wouldn’t be better off with Watson under center. The Raiders are almost as bad at camouflaging the flow of sensitive information as they were at managing the league’s already lax COVID protocols.
I don’t understand the Raiders’ tepid embrace of Carr, which isn’t a new thing in response to Watson suddenly being available. While he’s not quite on the same level as Houston’s soon-to-be former quarterback, Carr is actually pretty good.
Carr had a career-best mark in passing yards this year with 4,103 as well as a 101.3 passer rating. He had 27 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, something he did with Nelson Agholor as his No. 1 receiver and a disappointing rookie campaign from first-round rookie Henry Ruggs III. Carr finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 8th-ranked QB. Best of all, he was a more aggressive, and more successful, quarterback, extending his depth of target to 9.1 yards from a not so nice 6.9, according to PFF.
One of his best games of the season came against the Chiefs, the current Super Bowl favorites, in Week 11 (he played very well in his other game against KC this year too). He was 23-for-31 with 275 yards in that game, along with three touchdowns and one pick. Of his eight incomplete passes, four of them were drops. His interception came in desperation play at the end of the game — and it wouldn’t have come to that if his receivers been a little better at holding onto the ball.
Carr has two years left on his current deal with the Raiders, with no guaranteed money left to pay out. His cap hit this year is just over $22 million; next season it’s $19 million. It’s incredibly team friendly, enough so that they could go out and get him an actually good receiver (and upgrade the defense).
Or they could trade him. — RVB
What will the Colts do at quarterback now?
The buzz following the Matthew Stafford blockbuster trade has mostly died down. In Monday’s newsletter, Christian went in-depth on the topic, specifically on what it means for Stafford and the Rams’ Super Bowl hopes. In the section above, Christian took a long look at the 49ers, who couldn’t afford Stafford’s services. However, there’s another team that wasn’t involved in the trade that will be dealing with its consequences: the Colts.
A few weeks ago, we examined what was next for the Colts after their first-round playoff exit and how they would address their quarterback situation. Our best guess was that the Colts would just re-sign Philip Rivers on another short-term deal, which was also the outcome favored by head coach Frank Reich. But then the 39-year-old Rivers decided to retire and leave us debating his Hall of Fame bonafides for years to come.
When Stafford became available, Indianapolis appeared to be a likely landing spot. Not only would Stafford inherit a win-now roster, but team owner Jim Irsay has expressed his desire for a veteran quarterback and the Colts have the capital to pull off a headline-grabbing deal. They engaged in talks, but whatever the Colts offered the Lions, it didn’t compare to the Rams’ package.
So where will the Colts look for their starting quarterback? They basically have four options:
1. Trade for a different quarterback
While several quarterbacks have been rumored to be on the trade block, it’s hard to know for sure who has a legitimate shot at getting dealt. Matt Ryan would make a ton of sense for the Colts, but the Falcons probably aren’t shopping him (then again, I thought the same thing about the Rams and Jared Goff, so who even knows at this point). Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins, though the 49ers or Vikings would have to have a plan at quarterback since the only one Indianapolis could offer in return would be fourth-round pick Jacob Eason. I could also imagine a scenario where Derek Carr ends up in Indy.
Although the Texans wouldn’t trade Deshaun Watson to a division rival, his future could affect the Colts. Let’s say Watson goes to the Jets, reportedly his preferred destination because of Robert Saleh. If the Jets don’t include Sam Darnold in the deal, that leaves him as a possibility for the Colts. He could be even if Watson doesn’t end up playing for Gang Green, since the Jets have their pick of non-Trevor Lawrence quarterbacks with the No. 2 selection in the draft.
There’s one more name to consider, and it’s the one that seems fairly realistic: Carson Wentz, who excelled with Reich as his offensive coordinator.
Reich’s OC this past season is now the Eagles’ new coach and despite his praise for Wentz, Nick Sirianni didn’t commit to the guy who was benched for rookie Jalen Hurts either. And Wentz’s relationship with the Eagles, even after they fired Doug Pederson, might be beyond repair. A new start, with a coach he trusts, could be beneficial to all involved — depending on how much of Wentz’s contract the Colts would be willing to take on.
2. Sign a veteran in free agency
Unless the Cowboys completely goof and let Dak Prescott walk, there won’t be many inspiring names on the quarterback market. The best of the bunch come with considerable risk: Ryan Fitzpatrick (38-year-old journeyman); Jameis Winston (30 interceptions the last time he was a starter); Cam Newton (struggled with consistency in New England); Tyrod Taylor (a high-level backup but still a backup); and Mitchell Trubisky (is Mitchell Trubisky).
On one hand, it wasn’t certain that Rivers would bounce back from his ho-hum final season with the Chargers when the Colts signed him. On the other hand, none of those quarterbacks have the career resume that Rivers did.
Any of those free agents could also be a quality backup or a bridge quarterback (so could Jacoby Brissett, if he re-ups with Indianapolis), especially if the Colts turn to the draft to find their next starter under center.
3. Trade up in the draft
There’s only one certainty in this year’s draft: Trevor Lawrence and his flowing locks will go first overall. The order after that, and which teams will be looking to draft their next franchise quarterback, is up for debate. Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance seem to be in the next tier, and all three will likely be off the board by the time the Colts are set to pick at No. 21.
General manager Chris Ballard is no stranger to making aggressive draft-pick trades, though he has yet to move up in the first round. That could change this year, if he falls in love with one of the quarterback prospects. According to early rumors, Fields is the only one who has caught the Colts’ attention.
4. Stay where they are and draft a QB at No. 21
When the Colts are on the clock, the top four or five quarterbacks should be gone. They’ll still have options, though, such as Mac Jones or Kyle Trask. But Ballard has also made it clear that he won’t force it if the right player isn’t available:
He also expressed doubts that a top prospect will be there waiting for them. Yet, if he believes in a quarterback who is still around at pick No. 21, I don’t think Ballard would hesitate to pull the trigger. — SH
Chiefs vs. Bucs, Celebrity Fan Edition
Oh yeah, the Super Bowl is this week, huh? We’ll have our picks and a breakdown of how the Bucs and Chiefs can win in Friday’s newsletter, but for now, let’s take a nonsubstantive look at both teams. Specifically, both teams’ famous fans.
Celebrities who cheer for the Chiefs
Celebrities who cheer for the Bucs
Gisele Bundchen (but only because of Tom Brady)
Bill Burr (but only because of Tom Brady)
Camille Kostek (but only because of Gronk)
Dana White (but only because of Tom Brady AND Gronk)
Where the Chiefs have the edge: acting talent, comedic talent, superhero cred, handsomeness, name recognition
Where the Bucs have the edge: modeling, muscles, wrestling talent, overall Floridaness, Tom Brady fandom
Winner: Chiefs, by a lot
— SH