Bad quarterback takes are here!
Ah, draft season... Plus, how the Washington Football Team will screw up their chance at redemption
In “normal” times, we would be spending this week scrutinizing how fast 21/22-year-olds can run in polyester/spandex blend compression tank tops and shorts. Alas, the annual gathering at Lucas Oil Stadium is off this year. Instead of attending the NFL Combine, prospects will go through virtual interviews and psychological tests, while their workouts and drills will happen at their respective pro days.
There is one pre-draft tradition that is sadly not taking a hiatus this year: the quarterback takes are already here and they’re already bad. And we still have two months until the draft!
It’s really difficult to evaluate quarterbacks, and I would hardly consider myself an expert. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before and will be wrong plenty of times in the future. Still, there are a few hot takes floating around out there that have left me both baffled and indignant, and by the time the draft gets here, I’m sure there will be more to add to the list.
Bad take No. 1: Trevor Lawrence isn’t the top quarterback
Draft analysts should question conventional wisdom. Don’t just accept that Lawrence is the No. 1 quarterback prospect as gospel without doing your own research.
But nothing we’ve seen from Lawrence, dating back to his freshman year, would suggest he’s overrated. He’s got the arm, the decision-making, the stature, and yes, the mobility to be a superstar in the NFL. Opinions like this are, at best, overthinking it; at worst, stupid as hell; and somewhere in between, being contrarian for contrarian’s sake:
I don’t believe Zach Wilson is the second-best quarterback, let alone better than Lawrence, and he certainly comes with questions, especially regarding scheme fit, that Lawrence doesn’t.
While Wilson is a threat as both a runner and passer and put up impressive numbers in 2020, it came mostly against a mostly cupcake schedule; BYU’s only game against an opponent with a pulse, Coastal Carolina, resulted in a loss Wilson’s worst game of the season (a common theme in his college career).
This argument is basically a moot point, anyway. The Jaguars will draft Lawrence first overall, and he’ll start right away. Wilson is more of a project, but could still go as high as No. 2. And wherever he ends up on draft night, I’ll imagine Roger Goodell calling Wilson by this nickname instead:
Bad take No. 2: Justin Fields can’t get past his first read
Here we go again with an assessment that only ever seems to be applied to Black quarterbacks:
I’m biased, because I’m an Ohio State fan. But that also means I’ve seen every throw Fields made in a Buckeye uniform, and I can tell you that, once again, what an anonymous source said is categorically false. You don’t have to take my word for it, though. Please take a minute to go check out Steven Ruiz’s breakdown of just how wrong it is, then come back and read this tweet too:
Fields is not a perfect prospect, and he struggled throughout a couple games last season (when he tried to do a little too much against top-notch defenses). The rest of the time, he was pretty superb, particularly in the playoff semifinals against Clemson when he threw six touchdowns.
He’s an accurate passer, dynamic athlete, and strong leader who has the ability to be special at the next level. If you disagree, be prepared to fight me.
Bad take No. 3: Mac Jones has Tom Brady vibes
On the one hand, I’m feeling a little affection for Mel Kiper because of his recent defense of Fields. On the other hand, he also said Jones has a “little bit of Brady in him.”
First of all, he shouldn’t be comparing any prospects to a seven-time Super Bowl champion. More than that, though, I’m not sold on Jones being a franchise quarterback. Don’t get me wrong. He was excellent last season at Alabama and had noticeably improved in his first season as the full-time starter. He was also surrounded by an embarrassment of first-round talent (including a Heisman-winning receiver) and played in a Death Star offense:
To me, if we’re going to compare Jones to any former Patriots player, I’d go with Drew Bledsoe. Essentially, Jones is a competent quarterback whose physical limitations and average arm put his ceiling at “one- or two-time Pro Bowler.”
There’s buzz that Jones could be selected in the top 10, which is not how I would spend a high draft pick. However, I do think Jones has the potential to have a long NFL career … as a backup quarterback. So maybe that makes him more of a Matt Cassel. — SH
How is the Washington Football Team gonna screw this up?
The Washington Football Team broke a five-year playoff drought in 2020. The pessimist in me suggests this is merely because someone had to stand atop the stripped down 1982 Mercury Lynx that was the NFC East. The optimist sees a young, surging defense and a handful of dynamic skill players and thinks “hey, these guys are pretty close to contending.”
#/media/File:1982MercuryLynx.jpg){kind=link}
The latter is the curse of the Football Team. For the past three decades, Washington has been a place where gridiron hopes briefly flare up before a vacuum of leadership extinguishes any chance at relevance. Few franchises in professional sports can match the general ineptitude of the Team, a tempest of upward-failingthat extends from the field to team headquarters.
Fortunately for Washington, these failures have created an opportunity. Botching Kirk Cousins’ long-term contract talks allowed him to fully realize his mediocrity in Minnesota. Winning only three games in 2019 dropped reigning defensive rookie of the year Chase Young into the lineup at a below-market cost for an impact pass rusher. Day 2 picks Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson may be good enough to make whomever is starting at quarterback look competent.
The foundation for a good team exists. The question is whether head coach Ron Rivera will erect the traditional Dan Snyder tacky McMansion on it, or if he can truly change the culture of a franchise where dysfunction is hailed as a tenet of good business. He’ll have something near $40 million of spending room, and possibly more, to get there. What should Rivera do?
Washington needs to figure out its quarterback situation
First and foremost, the Football Team needs an answer behind center. The team has been quiet through the early revolutions of this offseason’s quarterback carousel. It missed out on Matthew Stafford (who may have been too pricy to acquire given the haul Detroit got for him) and Carson Wentz (who may never have been an option, since he previously played for a division rival before being shipped to the Colts).
Washington is likely to stay quiet on that front while it waits for clarification on Alex Smith’s future. The former top overall pick was 2020’s comeback player of the year after coming back from a life-threatening leg injury and posting a 5-1 record as a starter (every other starting QB combined to go 2-9). He was also arguably the league’s least mobile passer (and will probably hold this distinction in 2021 now that Philip Rivers has retired). His average completion traveled a mere 3.7 yards downfield. He also threw more interceptions than touchdown passes and was, in general, a below-average quarterback.
The Football Team’s best-case scenario would see Smith ride off into the sunset after proving he could return from a gruesome broken leg, thereby wiping $14.7 million of his team-high $22.3m cap hit from the books. But Smith has already returned to a franchise he felt “didn’t want [him] there” in 2020 and, while he’s been mum on his 2021 plans, seems likely to continue his career.
This would put Washington in a bind. The club has the salary cap space to keep him on board, but Smith isn’t the future. There’s a bit more potential in Taylor Heinicke, who played well in Smith’s stead late in the season and in the playoffs, but he’s a journeyman who spent the bulk of 2020 working toward his online degree at Old Dominion rather than on an NFL roster. The team could also re-sign Kyle Allen at what’s likely to be a low price, but the former Panther averaged only a little more than 150 passing yards per game in his four starts last year.
Rivera hasn’t balked at cutting quarterbacks WFT committed to before his arrival. He cast 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins out to sea after he failed to cement his place in the starting lineup. Smith could be next, and the money saved in that transaction could be spent luring another available veteran to the nation’s capital.
Who fits that bill?
The list of free agent upgrades is limited. In the extremely unlikely event Dak Prescott hits the open market, Washington would happily throw him a Deshaun Watson-style contract (five years, $200 million). Otherwise, the options boil down to moderate risk, moderate reward types like Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Mitchell Trubisky, and Andy Dalton (don’t laugh, he had a 95.7 passer rating and 13:5 TD:INT ratio in his final seven starts for the Cowboys). They could also become the latest team to employ Ryan Fitzpatrick and use him in concert with Heinicke similar to how the veteran’s been used the last three years with the Bucs and Dolphins.
Rivera may prefer to scour the trade market for his next starter. Jimmy Garoppolo has John Lynch’s endorsement, but trading him away would create vital cap space for the 49ers. If the Jets decide to draft a passer, Sam Darnold could be a useful reclamation project. Same with the Panthers and Teddy Bridgewater.
None of these moves would match the instant impact of swinging for the fences and freeing Deshaun Watson from Houston. Prying him from the Texans would mean mortgaging the team’s cap space and likely giving up Washington’s first-round picks through 2023, but it would absolutely be worth it. Imagine Rivera, who coached Newton into a league MVP for a 15-1 team, working with Watson along with McLaurin, Gibson, and rising tight end Logan Thomas. It’s perfect, even if it would come for a decidedly imperfect franchise.
That seems unlikely. The Texans maintain they have no plans on trading Watson. Washington barely cracks the top 10 when it comes to betting odds regarding where Watson lands. Russell Wilson, whose trade desires are a lot more vague, may be a little more likely … but if he doesn’t like bad blocking and organizational dysfunction, there’s not a lot the Football Team can offer.
So what’s next?
It’s going to be tough for Washington to find a franchise quarterback in 2021. That’s okay! A top three defense loaded with young talent means even a modest upgrade from the Haskins-Allen-Smith-Heinicke quadrangle will be enough to make this year’s Football Team significantly better than last year’s.
But reaching even seven wins in 2021 could be difficult. Winning the East meant Washington now gets a schedule that will feature every division champion rather than the lineup of fourth-place teams WFT *still* managed to go 0-3 against last season. They’ll face a healthy Dak Prescott rather than a Cowboys team they held to merely 19 points in a pair of wins in 2020. Their cross-conference slate pairs them with the AFC West, which means a likely frogstomping at the hands of the Chiefs and tough matchups against the rising Chargers and whatever Jon Gruden slaps together in Las Vegas.
Assuming Smith either retires or is released and none of the aforementioned star QBs move to the nation’s capital, Rivera and his Football Team will have somewhere in the neighborhood of $52-54 million to patch up the holes in his ship as a raging storm approaches. A good chunk of that space will be eaten up by “UNNAMED AVERAGE VETERAN PASSER” and an offensive line upgrade to boost a unit that allowed a bottom-10 pressure rate last fall — re-signing Brandon Scherff would get the team halfway there, but more help is needed. The rest? That could go toward upgrading the free safety spot next to Landon Collins, or replenishing an unspectacular linebacking corps in order to further insulate the team from the odd bed-wettings on offense next season.
The good news is a modest upgrade at quarterback and some smart drafting could keep Washington in contention through 2021 and beyond. The bad news is “meaningful offseason upgrade” and “smart” are typically descriptors we’ve avoided when discussing the Football Team. If Rivera is going to reverse the fortunes of his new team, this will be his best opportunity to do so. If not, well, at least it’ll be something Washington fans have gotten used to. — CD
trevor lawrence and the jags, jags going to the super bowl 56 in las angles
come and go song sing it i dare your to also i what a rematch hahahahahaha basketball