An ode to 'banging it here'
Plus, it's franchise tag season! The pros & cons of tagging Chris Godwin and a look at some other potential franchisees to keep an eye on.
The real cost of Chris Godwin’s franchise tag
Godwin has emerged as a star slot wideout. Can Tampa afford to keep him? Can it afford to let him go?
Without Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers may not have won Super Bowl 55.
I’m not talking about just the 16 postseason catches or the 110-yard performance against the Packers in the NFC title game. His mere presence on the roster was instrumental in luring Tom Brady from New England.
The Buccaneers won the Brady sweepstakes in large part to the massive upgrade he got in Tampa Bay compared to the ragtag group of draft busts and never-weres the Patriots offered in Foxborough. The seven-time NFL champion escaped a barren desert of targets to find an oasis loaded with Pro Bowl and first-round talent. Floating in the middle of that stream was Godwin.
While Godwin saw his counting stats drop from 2019’s 1,333-yard campaign, his ability to give his quarterbacks a do-it-all, “just throw it in his direction and count your money” option remained the engine behind the Bucs’ aerial attack. His 77.1 percent catch rate — a career high — was the best on his roster for anyone with more than 34 targets and trailed only short-route masters Cameron Brate and LeSean McCoy for the team lead. His 10 yards per target was also a team high (and 11th-best among all wideouts); 50 of the 84 passes thrown his way either resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
This was all a soothing balm for a quarterback whose final season in New England left him burnt. Brady, long a beneficiary of high-value inside receivers like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, made the jump to Florida after the Patriots failed to upgrade his situation. The result was a fifth Super Bowl MVP award.
But Godwin is set to enter free agency for the first time in his career and is due for a massive pay raise. That leaves the Buccaneers with an important decision to make while the window to franchise tag players is open. Will they commit more than $16 million in cap space to the budding star Jason Licht plucked from the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft? Or will that money go toward keeping the other engines keeping this ship cruising in working order?
Why the Buccaneers should franchise tag Chris Godwin
Godwin has thrived in his role as Tampa’s Animal to Mike Evans’ Hawk in the Bucs’ Road Warrior offense (I originally pegged him as the Shawn Michaels to Evans’ Marty Jannetty, but in no way, shape, or form would Evans ever be cowardly enough to dive through a window to escape his teammate). The former Penn State star has excelled in the short-range opportunities created by Evans’ deep ball talents, scooping up modest throws and turning them into massive gains after the catch.
Godwin’s average target in 2019 came 10.6 yards downfield — 65th-most among qualified receiversl. His average yards per target, however, clocked in at 11.0 — fourth-best. Only two other wideouts averaged more yards-after-catch that season, and his eight broken tackles were fifth-most among WRs.
This is all to say there may not be a better player in the NFL when it comes to turning a short, high-probability catch into an explosive gain.
But Godwin is so much more than an easy target on a quick slant. His diverse route tree means you can’t cheat in any one direction expecting either a short pass or a longer-developing route. His 38 receptions of 20+ yards the past two seasons are more than any other player in the league but Stefon Diggs. He has only seven drops in 217 catchable targets since 2018.
Godwin is arguably option 1b to Mike Evans’ 1b in Tampa, but Evans’ advancing age and history of playing through minor injuries makes the younger wideout an invaluable piece of the passing offense. He also understands how to play on the same wavelength as a storied quarterback with lofty expectations.
“I think the biggest thing [Brady] brought was the mentality of expecting to win over hoping to win,” Godwin told Pat McAfee. “We’ve had a bunch of talented guys for years but could never really put it together.
"The history of the team kind of creeps into your mind. You go into games as a competitor like, ‘Yeah we can win this.’ But you’re really just hoping to win. But this year we approached every single game like, ‘We're damn sure can win this game.’ There’s no reason why we couldn’t."
If Brady’s responsible for changing the culture, retaining one of the league’s top receivers would be a major step in keeping it that way. Brady’s passer rating when targeting Godwin was 131.1. That number dropped to 97.6 when he threw to anyone else … and that’s a lineup that included Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and a chunk of games from Antonio Brown.
I’m not sure what the individual value of all those incredible numbers are, but I’m comfortable saying it adds up to at least $16.4 million. If Brady’s arm strength begins to fade — and it may not, considering he threw more deep passes at age 43 than he had in a season since at least 2015 — he can still rely on Godwin to provide the punch his aerial offense needs.
Why the Buccaneers could regret this move
Tampa has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to skill players. We’ve already touched on Evans, a dynamic deep threat who caught 13 touchdown passes last season because he has both the size and relative strength of an Ionic column. Gronkowski will likely be back after a two-touchdown Super Bowl, though he’d need to be re-signed. Same with Brown, but sub in a lone NFL Championship TD reception instead of two.
There’s a lot to work with behind those guys as well. If O.J. Howard can return from injury and keep himself out of Bruce Arians’ doghouse, he may finally be able to live up to his first-round billing. Scotty Miller is an emerging weapon who spent the NFC Championship Game embarrassing poor Kevin King.
There’s also 2020 rookie Tyler Johnson, another 6’1, 210-ish pound wideout who finished his college career with nearly 2,600 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Minnesota. He played sparingly in his debut season, but still managed 9.9 yards per target and a team-high 6.0 YAC on 17 passes thrown his way.
None of those guys can singularly replace what Godwin brings to the table, but they’d take some of the sting from his departure. More importantly, dropping the Pro Bowl WR onto the open market would also free up that $16.4 million to be spent elsewhere.
The Buccaneers are currently projected to have roughly $13.3 million in salary cap space, all of which would be cleaned out by tagging Godwin. While the club could clear room by releasing veterans like Howard or Cameron Brate, a franchise tag would still limit their flexibility when it comes to re-signing pieces of their championship offense like Gronk, Brown, and Leonard Fournette. It would also strike at the unit that shut down multiple MVPs en route to a Super Bowl boat parade in sunny Florida.
Lavonte David, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and Shaq Barrett are all facing uncertain futures now that their contracts have expired. William Gholston, who led the team in QB hits last season, may be a cap casualty if push comes to shove. Other important figures, like Vita Vea and Carlton Davis, are eligible for extensions on their rookie deals.
This is important! It was the Tampa defense that came up big with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combined for five clutch sacks of Aaron Rodgers, providing the derailing influence that allowed the Bucs to escape a potential Packers comeback. Two weeks later, that group forced Patrick Mahomes into his worst meaningful game as a pro. Barrett had four of the team’s nine QB hits that evening.
Barrett played last season on the franchise tag. His 2021 asking price may be too high for the Bucs to bite, but luring a potential replacement at a lower cost — maybe someone like Bud Dupree, Everson Griffen, or Justin Houston? — will still eat up precious cap space. David has been with the team nine years and remains a sturdy tackler and useful coverage presence at inside linebacker. Nunez-Roches was a vital presence as Vea’s backup and hasn’t been credited with a missed tackle in three years.
Not all these guys are created equal, and important choices will have to be made about this roster no matter what happens with Godwin. Those decisions just get a lot tougher if he’s on board for $16 million next fall. If the Bucs want to keep that cash on hand while attempting to maintain their level of talent at wideout, a glut of talented pass catchers in the 2021 draft would have provided cheaper, but less proven, options to backfill any targets Godwin left behind.
But that also applies to defensive difference-makers as well, and there will be several veterans willing to take a pay cut to chase a ring with the defending champions. There’s a world where Tampa gets both Godwin and a bunch of capable players to keep its ship afloat … it just won’t be the same crew who did so in 2020.
The short answer on Godwin is yes, he should be franchise tagged. His value extends so far beyond just “slot receiver” that it would be foolish to allow him to hit open waters. Applying the tag now keeps him in burgundy and pewter (or is it slate now?) while giving the two sides a few months to work out a possible extension.
That would give the Buccaneers the chance to kick this can down the line for potentially clogged cap sheets against non-pandemic spending limits in the near future. That could be a problem for Tampa in 2022 or 2023. But in 2021, all the Buccaneers need to worry about is defending their title and wringing every last molecule of greatness from Tom Brady. — CD
4 other potential franchise tag candidates to keep an eye on
Every year, the franchise tag window comes along and quashes the dreams of anyone who was hoping to land a certain premium free agent. This offseason will be no different, since the NFLPA’s chance of eliminating the franchise tag ended when it certified the new collective bargaining agreement about a year ago.
From now until March 9, each team has the option of tagging one pending free agent and preventing him from reaching the open market. The number of teams that choose to employ one of the different tags varies each season. Last year, 15 players were tagged, more than double the average in the five preceding years.
I won’t offer a guess on how many we’ll see this offseason, nor do I care to make any predictions on who receives a tag. Instead, I picked four tag candidates most interesting to me. I’ll be keeping tabs on these players the next couple weeks to find out how their situation unfolds.
1. Dak Prescott, QB
After Prescott played out all four years of his cheap rookie deal, the Cowboys rewarded him by … giving him the franchise tag and failing to sign him to a long-term contract. So for the third straight offseason, Prescott and the Cowboys are headed for the negotiating table:
But this time, there’s a little more hope that both sides will reach an agreement. If the Cowboys tag Prescott for the second straight year, it’ll be costly in more ways than one. First, the price of a second tag would be nearly $38 million, which would eat a big chunk of the salary cap. Second, as Hall of Famer Drew Pearson warned recently, the Cowboys would run the risk of losing Prescott and the entire locker room. There’s more incentive for Prescott too. He’s coming off a major injury and no doubt wants more security beyond another one-year deal.
The big question is if they can get a long-term deal done before March 9. If not, then I think it’s a good bet the Cowboys tag Prescott again, and we’ll be left playing the waiting game to see if they can come to terms on an extension before the July 15 deadline.
2. Allen Robinson, WR
There are several quality receivers who are prime tag candidates, including Chris Godwin, Corey Davis, Kenny Golladay, and Will Fuller. Allen Robinson, who has led the Bears in receiving yards for three straight seasons, might have better odds than all of them of getting tagged.
And if he does, he hasn’t ruled out asking for a trade. It’s hard to blame him for wanting better than a one-year deal. Robinson has been one of Chicago’s top weapons and is coming off his best season with the team; his 1,250 receiving yards ranked ninth in the NFL last season, and that’s with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles throwing him the ball. Speaking of uninspiring quarterbacks, Robinson is well versed in that area. He spent the first four years of his career in Jacksonville with Blake Bortles as his primary quarterback. Let’s just say Robinson has paid his dues.
All I ask of the Bears if they do tag, or even tag-and-trade, Robinson: Please find him a quarterback who isn’t complete butt.
3. Aaron Jones, RB
It’s been more than a decade since the Packers have used the franchise tag on one of their players (DT Ryan Pickett in 2010). It would be out of character for them to tag Aaron Jones, but if they don’t, they risk losing one of their few reliable playmakers. And they risk pissing off Aaron Rodgers even more, though that hasn’t stopped them before:
Jones has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and has scored 30 total touchdowns in that time (plus five more in the playoffs). His earlier negotiations with Green Bay fell apart, so the Packers may already be willing to move on (especially with an unfavorable salary cap situation). Luckily for Jones, he’ll have plenty of interest on the open market, starting with the Dolphins.
4. Haason Reddick, Edge
Reddick went from looking like a first-round bust to breaking out with a 12.5-sack campaign in 2020 (helps that the Cardinals finally lined him up as a pass rusher on a full-time basis). Before last season, the Cardinals declined his fifth-year option, but now they have a chance for a do-over with the franchise tag. It’d make sense too; the one-year tag would give the Cardinals a chance to see whether Reddick can replicate his success and if not, they can go their separate ways next year.
Or the Cardinals can let Reddick test the free agent waters and give another team the opportunity to take that chance. Even with only one productive pass-rushing season under his belt, some team will be ready and willing to do just that. — SH
Bro Football Talk
Mike Florio’s garbled prose has been a steady part of the online NFL ecosystem for as long as I can remember. Pro Football Talk has been so astutely parodied that even the parody has since evolved, unlike PFT itself. The site hasn’t changed since I started world famous Turf Show Times, a once excellent ST. LOUIS Rams blog, back in 2006. It’s the same aggregation mixed with insider currency reporting, and the main guy’s strained writing. The site’s design looked outdated 15 years ago, and it hasn’t substantially changed. But the most amazing non-change on the site is the text that takes you to the mid-aughts blog-like chronological unfurling of the site’s posts. There, beneath a curated list of current stories, is a blue H2 inviting an NFL fan hungry for scoops and speculation to “Bang it here for the latest news and rumors.”
Now that I don’t cover the NFL for a living, I find myself going back to PFT far more than I did than when the three of us writing this newsletter were in the trenches 80 hours a week. When you’re into it at that level, there’s no need for PFT; you can just get what you need from Twitter. But, now, as a private consumer who just wants an overview of what’s happening with the sport, with the option to deep dive on a story if I’m so motivated, I find myself going back to PFT again, scanning the main landing page, and during busy times “banging” it there for more hot content.
(Let’s not overlook the fact that I think the stories and posts listed in chronological order—technically, I think it’s reverse chronological, but you know what I mean—is a really underrated way to consume information online. It’s one of those things the rest of the internet seemed to ditch as armies of designers started overthinking how to present the vast load of content vomit websites are under pressure to produce. Anyway …)
Look at the PFT front page in August 2006. Lol Matt Leinart.
But why do I have to “bang” it? Why can’t I just click a link for the complete list of blog posts from this humble West Virginia-based “insider” and his small platoon of associates?
The word “bang” has two connotations that immediately come to mind. It’s a four-letter word signifying the sound of gun shot, and it’s a noun and verb for doing sex. I guess there’s also “banging” on a door, as in vigorously knocking, but I’ve never actually met anyone who “bangs” on a button, much less a link to “more news and rumors.”
I suppose it’s part of the online throwback experience the site offers, a time when football was MANLY and offseason enjoyment included personal screenings of the 2004 edition of CRUNCH COURSE on the VHS in your basement “man cave.”
As a professional editor, I’m all for switching up verbiage. There’s nothing worse than seeing the same word, even in different conjugations, six times in two paragraphs. That’s what you expect from the digital sports operations that somehow survive by cranking out calorie-free aggregation bits and winners/losers posts for the sake of pumping out content to feed into Google AMP and Apple News in the name of pulling in a quick-fix traffic numbers without having to actually build an audience (ask me how I know.) And while PFT does a healthy amount of aggregation, it is at least including a healthy mix of news leaving the “guess what people are saying on Twitter” garbage the VC-backed amateurs. But, JFC, why am I still being asked to “bang” a hyperlinked header in order to keep pace with the rumor mill?
It’s not really hurting anyone to keep asking people to “bang” a link; it just annoys the shit out of me. Too, we should also credit PFT for staying true to its roots, especially since it was gobbled up by NBC Sports sometime ago. However, I would argue that it maintains its essence by the mere presence of Florio and his strained mediations on the state of the league (seriously, how is he still so put out by free agent tampering after doing his job for nearly two decades?). I don’t need to be invited to smash the hell out of my laptop’s finely tuned mouse to dive into the posts; I’ll need its functionality to scroll down the page to consume all that information anyway.
One glance at the Wayback Machine or even a rudimentary knowledge of PFT and its place in the weird world of the football internet, and you know that the invitation to “bang” isn’t going anywhere. It’s touchstone to the old ways of the internet, even as more and more people consuming “the latest news and rumors” have no idea what that is. So I guess we just have to live with it.
Bang on, friends, bang on. —RVB
cowboys vs broncos 34-10 coyboys are winning man hahahahahaahah im such a laugher hahahahahahaahahwhatever man broncos are little crap heads hahahahahaah