Triskaidekaphobics beware: Week 13 picks are here
December has arrived and the stakes are raised: There are major playoff implications starting now, including a few teams that can be eliminated from contention.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year: playoff scenarios are here!
OK, maybe I’m being a bit hyperbolic and/or nerdy, but I’ve always enjoyed reading about all the different ways teams can clinch or be eliminated from postseason contention. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait another week until anyone can secure a berth, so the only scenarios on the line this week involve a few teams that can officially turn their attention to the 2022 NFL Draft.
I’m sure you’ll be shocked to find out that by Sunday, the Lions, Texans, and Jaguars can all be knocked out of the playoff race. For the Lions, the simplest path to elimination is to do what they’ve done 10 other times this season: lose. The other 61 (!) ways are slightly more complex:
For the other two, they would need to lose (or tie), plus have at least another result go against them. As an example, if the Texans lose to the Colts and the Bills take down the Patriots, then Houston is out. That’s just one of several possibilities. The least complicated way the Jaguars can be out is if they fall to the Rams, the Bills win, and either the Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Raiders, or Steelers win.
If Vegas is right, then these three teams can go all-in on scouting prospects starting Monday. Here are Week 13’s remaining 13 games and the odds listed as of Thursday night on DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Giants at Dolphins (-4.5)
Colts at Texans (+9.5)
Vikings at Lions (+7)
Eagles at Jets (+7)
Cardinals at Bears (+7.5)
Chargers at Bengals (-3)
Bucs at Falcons (+10)
Washington at Raiders (-1.5)
Jaguars at Rams (-12.5)
Ravens at Steelers (+5)
49ers at Seahawks (+3.5)
Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5)
Patriots at Bills (-2.5)
We liked the Cowboys over the Saints on Thursday night, which we were right about. Now let’s discuss some of this weekend’s other matchups. As a reminder, we will not make a pick for every game, but if you’d like our thoughts on any that we omitted, please feel free to leave us a comment at The Post Route and we’d be happy to get back to you.
Sarah’s picks
On paper, Week 12’s slate appeared to be one of the trickiest weeks to pick yet. But because this season zigs when it’s supposed to zag, Sunday turned out to be fairly normal. And my picks were actually pretty good, almost like it was September again.
I’m not sure if that means we're headed for a more predictable December or not, but I’ll try to keep my streak of not giving bad advice going!
You should feel most confident in these picks
I should probably know better than to bet, theoretically, on any double-digit favorites this year considering the number of big-time upsets we’ve already seen. And I keep thinking the Rams are going to get their act together, but instead they’ve lost three in a row.
Still, I feel optimistic they’ll get off the schneid this week at home against the Jaguars. I have my doubts that it’ll be a true get-right game, though. The Rams’ schedule after that returns to a high difficulty level. But they need a win in the worst way, and the Jags should be willing to oblige.
I remained unconvinced that the Chiefs had turned things around until their last win, when they beat the Cowboys two weeks ago and kept them out of the end zone. I don’t believe that this version of the Chiefs is as good as the one we’ve seen in the previous three seasons, but if the offense can find any consistency, they could be right back atop the NFL power rankings.
All streaks end at some point, but everything is working in Kansas City’s favor this week: The Chiefs have won four games in a row, they’ve beaten the Broncos 11 straight times, Patrick Mahomes is 7-0 against Denver, the Broncos are 3-16 at Arrowhead Stadium, and Andy Reid is 19-3 after a bye. Do any of those stats have anything to do with the game itself Sunday night? Not really! While stranger things have happened this season, I’m not going to go against all those omens.
The Eagles had been flying high until they played an absolute stinker of a game against the Giants. It was their ugliest outing since a 20-point loss to the Cowboys in September and their worst offensive performance of the season … and they still should have won! Jalen Hurts and Co. will get a chance at redemption against a different New York team in the same stadium, and I think they’ll get it.
You should feel least confident in these picks
The Chargers and Bengals have been two of the hardest teams to figure out this season. At times, they’ve looked destined to end their divisional title droughts. At other times, they’ve looked like they're headed for another season without a playoff bid.
As things stand today, both would be in the postseason as wild cards. But there are still six games remaining for them to prove themselves, one way or the other. The Bengals have been the better team lately; after losing two straight, they returned from their bye with renewed energy and have won back-to-back blowouts. The Chargers took a different approach following their own bye in Week 7: They’ve alternated losses and wins since, going 2-3 in that stretch. If that pattern holds, however, then the Chargers are due for a win.
Justin Herbert has been more turnover-prone lately, but he still leads all quarterbacks in QBR and EPA. And even though Joe Burrow hasn’t been filling up the statsheet the last few weeks, he’s been steady as the run game and defense have propelled the Bengals. I think Cincy is slightly more trustworthy right now, though I know that with these two teams, you should only trust them as far as Taysom Hill can throw the ball.
One team just outside of the AFC playoff picture is the Raiders, who are coming off a thrilling overtime victory over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. They’ll host Washington, which is hitting its stride at just the right time — same as it did last year, when it won the NFC East. WFT has won three straight and if it can stretch that to four straight, it can keep pressure on the Cowboys in the division race.
I would not be surprised at any outcome in this one, though I’m slightly leaning toward the Raiders because I think they can take advantage of a still-suspect Washington defense. The unit ranks No. 31 in DVOA and almost blew it against the Seahawks and their struggling offense on Monday night.
Speaking of the Seahawks, they haven’t won a game with Russell Wilson at quarterback since Week 4. That came against the same opponent they face this week: the surging 49ers. As cliche as the saying can be, I agree with Niners linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who said that records don’t matter in this type of rivalry. The Seahawks know they need a win and showed fight even when they were down late to Washington, while the 49ers will be without two of their best players, Fred Warner and Deebo Samuel. I like San Francisco to continue its winning streak, but this will be no gimme against a three-win team.
Why these are potential upset picks
There are several upset possibilities this week, including the three matchups I outlined in the previous section. The only one I feel even remotely good about, though, is the Patriots over the Bills on Monday night. And to be honest, I’m not all that confident in that pick either.
The stakes are high — the winner will not only take control of the AFC East but also potentially the No. 1 seed in the conference. And this is an evenly matched contest, featuring the league’s top two defenses (in DVOA and in scoring). They have the two best point differentials and average scoring margins in the NFL, and also rank second and third in turnover margin.
The last time we saw the No. 1 scoring defense face off against the No. 2 scoring defense was two years ago … between the Patriots and Bills. The Patriots won that round, and I think they can do the same, even though — or especially — because they’ll be on the road, where New England is 5-0 this season. While the Bills are the more talented team with the higher ceiling, no one is playing better than the Patriots right now. That’s the difference in this one, to me anyway.
No matter what, though, I expect these two to split the season series. So when these rivals meet again in three weeks, you can already pencil in one Week 16 pick for me: whoever loses this one.
Christian’s Picks
Well well well, after a month-long dry spell I finally had a good week, going 10-5 thanks to a weekend with limited upsets. Time to torpedo that goodwill by picking the Lions! As always, you can find my full slate of picks over at PickwatchPRO.
Pick I like the most
(1-0 last week. 7-5 on the season)
Miami Dolphins (-210) over the New York Giants
The Giants fired Jason Garrett and their offense got zero percent better as a result. Now they turn to living scarecrow Mike Glennon at quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. This is terrible news for a team that should have lost handily to the Eagles only to be bailed out repeatedly by stupid Philly turnovers.
On the other side of the ball is a Miami team that’s won four straight to climb into the playoff race despite a 1-7 start. The Dolphins are flying and beginning to look like the 10-win team from last season. Expect Tua Tagovailoa to RPO the New York defense to death and move one game closer to .500.
Pick I overthought, so you should probably fade it
(1-0 last week, 7-5 on the season)
Washington Football Team (+115) over the Las Vegas Raiders
Normally if I’m picking an upset in Nevada, the Raiders are on the happy end of it. And they still might be, as Washington’s recent defensive competence is a mirage and Vegas could put up 30+ Sunday afternoon.
But! I ran about 1,800 words deep unraveling Ron Rivera’s philosophy shift after the bye week, and I think his transition to a lesser Tennessee Titans offense will continue to pay off. Washington’s plan is to run the ball and dominate time of possession long enough that no one notices its defense is butt. That’s worked really, really well recently and the Raiders’ 17th-ranked rushing D is probably not the unit that can derail this.
Upset pick I like the most
(0-1 last week, 5-7 on the season)
Detroit Lions (+260) over the Minnesota Vikings
LET’S. GET. STUPID.
I have picked the Lions before. I have been wrong.
Detroit’s ability to lose close games has made them feel inevitable. Since their bye, the Lions are 0-2-1 by virtue of five total points. The last time they saw Minnesota, the Vikings needed a last-second 54-yard field goal to win at home. Mike Zimmer’s team has improved since then, but putting them in the circle of trust at any point is a fool’s errand.
The Lions still have to overcome the obstacle of having Jared Goff at quarterback and a bunch of Dollar Tree action figures at wideout, but they get a favorable matchup against an underwhelming Minnesota defense. Not having D’Andre Swift, a player who averaged about a half yard less per carry than advanced stats would have expected him to get before succumbing to a shoulder injury, could be a blessing in disguise
This is a stupid pick that weighs entire too heavily in my massive distrust of human bowl of ranch dressing/quarterback Kirk Cousins. In honesty, this is probably the kind of game where he leads a comeback win, makes a dad joke to the camera while walking from the field, and then tries to trademark said dad joke. I kinda hate everything about this game, right down to Dan Campbell almost but not quite getting a win.
So instead I’m gonna root for him to finally get that boulder up the hill.