Week 12 picks might be the hardest yet
There will be no double-digit upset this week, but you should expect even more close games.
Through last week, there had been 23 games this season that were decided by a score on the final play. That was the most walk-off game-winners through Week 11 in 51 years.
Week 12 just started, and we already have two more to add to that total after the Bears and Raiders both hit field goals to win on Thanksgiving.
Given how evenly matched the rest of the slate is, and how this season in general has gone, I’m guessing that number will be even higher when Week 12 is over.
Just don’t expect another double-digit upset (we’ve seen five so far this season) … but that’s because no team is that big of an underdog this week. Here’s a look at the odds, from DraftKings’ listings on Friday afternoon, for the 13 remaining games (the favored team is in bold).
Bucs at Colts (+3)
Jets at Texans (-2.5)
Eagles at Giants (+3.5)
Panthers at Dolphins (+2)
Titans at Patriots (-6.5)
Steelers at Bengals (-3.5)
Falcons at Jaguars (+2)
Chargers at Broncos (+2.5)
Rams at Packers (+1.5)
Vikings at 49ers (-3)
Browns at Ravens (-4)
Seahawks at Washington (-1)
As per usual, we’ll discuss the matchups that jump out to us most, but we will not be picking every game. If you’d like us to weigh in on any others, please leave us a comment at the Post Route and we’ll get back to you with our thoughts.
Sarah’s picks
I’m off to a 2-1 start this week after I sided with all the favorites on Thursday. Only the Cowboys, who once again lost in overtime on Thanksgiving, failed me. But hey, I’ve at least got a winning record right now. Even if it doesn’t last the whole weekend, I’ll take it!
You should feel most confident in these picks
Last week, I successfully jinxed the Packers and Titans in this section, which was my plan all along. I’m going to use that same approach this week, first by picking a team I don’t particularly like and then by going against a team I’d like to see get its act together.
The Patriots, winners of five straight, are the biggest favorites this week, which doesn’t seem that strange until you realize it’s against the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. Perhaps the Titans are victims of a recency bias, since they’re coming off a loss to a then one-win Texans. After all, Mike Vrabel is 2-0 against his former coach, Bill Belichick, and it seems unlikely that Tennessee would turn the ball over five times again like it did against Houston.
But really, the Patriots should win on Sunday for two reasons: their defense is playing better than any unit in the NFL right now, and the Titans’ injury situation keeps getting worse and worse. Last week, they were without running back Jeremy McNichols and wideout Julio Jones, then lost receivers A.J. Brown and Marcus Johnson during the game. This week, there’s only a chance that McNichols and Brown could play — Jones is still on injured reserve and Johnson is done for the season — but even that’s uncertain. And even if they do take the field, they might not be 100 percent.
I’m not ready to see the Patriots in the No. 1 or No. 2 spot in the AFC standings again, but I don’t think I have a choice.
If the Pats do indeed win, only the Ravens can keep them out of that top spot. I believe they’ll do just that, especially since Lamar Jackson will be back against the Browns. The Ravens have proven, even without Jackson, that they have the perseverance to come from behind and win — they’ve done it five times already this season. The Browns have zero such wins and have looked like a complete team just once this year (a rout over the Bengals) and have been a frustrating mess most of the time. Each week, I lose more hope that they’ll be able to turn their season around.
You should feel least confident in these picks
Honestly, the entire Week 12 schedule belongs in this section, but I’ll try my best to narrow down the field.
I’ll start with the second of three sicko matchups this week, games that appeal only to the most depraved part of our psyches. The first was Bears-Lions, which ended with an 18-play drive that lasted 8:30, included a penalty for a double timeout, and handed Detroit its third walk-off field goal loss of the season. The second is Jets-Texans.
Zach Wilson is off IR and will start on Sunday, when he’ll have a surging Elijah Moore to throw the ball to in Houston. As it so happens, Wilson played the best game of his young career so far against the only other AFC South team he’s faced, the Titans. Speaking of, the Texans could be due for a letdown after their upset last week. But between Wilson’s turnover issues and the Texans’ ability to create them, I’m leaning toward the home team. I also think the Texans are more likely to unintentionally shoot themselves in the foot by screwing up their draft position with another win.
On the opposite end of the talent spectrum, the Rams head to Green Bay in the marquee showdown of the week. The Rams are trying to break a two-game skid, but they will be fresh after a bye week. Aaron Rodgers will be extra motivated not only because the Packers just lost a close one to the Vikings, but also because the darn media was at it again and reported that he has Covid toe. The noted liar insists his toe injury is a fracture.
Don’t bet against Rodgers (and his ability to annoy me), but don’t bet against Sean McVay coming off a bye week either. Even though McVay has an 0-1 record against his former coworker and best bro Matt LaFleur, I trust the Rams coach will have used their off week well and has a plan to get his team back on track.
Once upon a time, Kyle Shanahan also coached alongside McVay and LaFleur. His 49ers don’t have as many wins as either the Rams or Packers, but they are playing their best football right now. The same goes for their next opponent. Both the 49ers and Vikings have won two in a row to get to .500, and they currently hold the final two wild card spots in the NFC.
On paper, there’s not much that separates these two, but I’ll give the edge to the 49ers. They have the slightly better team in overall DVOA and are starting to get healthy again at just the right time.
Why these are potential upset picks
I’m taking a big chance on both of these upset picks, not in terms of odds but in terms of the two teams I’m daring to put any faith in.
The Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, a 20-point loss to the Bucs on Monday night. Despite getting Saquon Barkley back and Daniel Jones having a relatively healthy WR corps for once, the Giants mustered just 10 points and Jones’ turnover woes returned in an ugly way. That led to OC Jason Garrett’s firing, an act that was inevitable as soon as he was hired.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have won three of their last four games, thanks in large part to playing to their young quarterback’s strengths. After the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving day loss, the Eagles know they can make headway in the NFC East if they can take down the Giants. I have more confidence in the Eagles than I do the Giants, and it’d be very on brand if the NFC East race was thrown into disarray. Yet, I think the Giants can ride that post-coach-firing momentum and rebound from Monday night’s disaster.
The third and final sickos matchup will pit the Falcons and Jaguars against each other. It’ll no doubt be a monstrous display of football — both teams are among the worst in turnover differential because they cough up the ball a lot and don’t force their opponents to do the same. While the Jacksonville defense didn’t look great last week against the 49ers, it’s been playing better as of late and will now face an Atlanta offense that’s scored a total of three points in its last two contests. The Falcons could also be without Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been their only reliable playmaker all season.
I’m also going against the Falcons for one immaterial reason: Arthur Smith pissed me off. I can’t stand food shaming in general, but especially when you’re making a moral judgment in the process:
I know it’s not a popular opinion, but I don’t like mac and cheese. People are born with different taste buds and like or don’t like different foods. Let us anti-mac and cheesers live!