The 7 NFL teams no one wants to face right now
First read up on the most dangerous opponents at this point in the season. Then stay for a quick preview of Saints vs. Cowboys, who both need a win in the worst way.
The playoff picture seems more wide open than ever with six weeks left in the regular season. No team has been officially eliminated from playoff contention, though it’s clear that for the five squads with three wins or fewer, their only postseason impact will be playing spoiler.
Those teams can be dangerous in their own right, because the stakes aren’t as high for them. But the opponents no one really wants to face right now are those that have figured out who they are and how to win. And, in some cases, are also starting to get healthy again.
To me, there are currently seven teams that fit that description. For now, I left out the Cardinals due to the uncertain availability of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, though with a little more stability on that front, they could easily jump to the top of this list. I also omitted the Bills and Chargers because of their lack of consistency. On the right day, they might be the toughest opponent to match up against, but on an off day, they could get smacked around by anyone (even the Jaguars!). Despite their talent, the Rams did not earn a spot, either, at least not until they get back on track (if they ever will).
Here’s how I would rank the seven that I did include — not based on projection but who, at this moment, would be the scariest competition.
1. Patriots
The Patriots are riding an NFL-high six-game winning streak, which would’ve been eight games had they held off the Cowboys instead of losing in overtime in Week 6. On one hand, only two of those wins came against teams that currently have a winning record — the 8-4 Titans, who were severely undermanned, and the 6-5 Chargers, just a three-point New England win.
On the other hand, the Patriots have been blowing the competition out of the water. During their winning streak, they’re beating opponents by an average score of 35.2 to 10.5. In November alone, New England outscored its foes by a total of 130-26. Its point differential is now a league-best +146.
Even if the Patriots have benefitted somewhat from injury luck, no team has been hotter lately. In the past six games, they’ve found their winning formula: a run-first offense that, in a very Belichickian way, gets production out of randos (hello, Kendrick Bourne); a defense that makes you fight for every yard; and an overall mistake-free effort (their turnover margin in this span is +13).
The Pats aren’t without their flaws; they did just allow the Derrick Henry-less Titans to rack up 270 yards on the ground against them, after all. And their next three contests will be their biggest test in almost two months — at Buffalo, at Indianapolis, and vs. Buffalo again. But no one has been able to slow them down since October, so good luck to whoever tries to stand in their way.
2. Chiefs
In Week 6, the Chiefs rolled into Washington with a losing record and the league’s worst defense per DVOA. At halftime, they were trailing the home team 13-10. Then it was like the Chiefs remembered they were the Chiefs. They won by a comfortable margin, 31-13, and appeared to be back.
Or so I thought. The next week, the Titans embarrassed them 27-3.
So I was skeptical, especially of its defense, when Kansas City won the following week. And the week after that. And the week after that. It wasn’t until their fourth straight win, this one over the Cowboys, that I was ready to trust the Chiefs again.
Strangely enough, it’s the defense that has carried them during this stretch. Frank Clark and Chris Jones got healthy again, and edge rusher Melvin Ingram’s arrival allowed Jones to move back inside. As such, the KC defense is getting after the quarterback more and forcing more turnovers.
The offense has been unusually sloppy, but it’s difficult to believe that’s a long-term issue. We know what Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire can do when they’re clicking. Pair that with a competent defense, and the Chiefs are back to being a top Super Bowl contender.
3. Packers
While the Packers are just 2-2 in the last four weeks, both of those losses were close and they were without at least one of their Aarons, Rodgers and Jones, for each. The only time this season they’ve tasted defeat with both Aarons in the lineup was back in Week 1.
On Sunday, Jones returned after a one-week absence, and though he didn’t have much impact on the box score, the Packers were firing on all cylinders offensively. It’s actually pretty annoying that, even with a toe injury and his brainworms, Rodgers has put himself back in the MVP race:
That was 1) against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and the Rams’ top-10 defense in DVOA and 2) when the Packers were missing three of their best offensive linemen.
Green Bay cruised to its ninth win of the season and is a Cardinals loss away from taking over the No. 1 spot in the NFC rankings. That could easily happen before December is over. The Packers have won 13 games each of the last two years and seem destined to reach that mark again in 2021.
4. Buccaneers
Like the Packers, the Bucs are 2-2 in their latest four-game stretch. But they bounced back from two straight losses to first bully the Giants enough for them to fire OC Jason Garrett, and then to rally from a double-digit deficit against the surging Colts.
Even with Antonio Brown’s ongoing injury and Gronk missing five games due to various injuries, Tampa Bay boasts the most efficient offense in the league. And while Tom Brady has been his usual reliable self (he leads the NFL in TD passes), the Bucs haven’t needed him to bail them out. In their comeback over the Colts, they leaned on Leonard Fournette and a defense that held Indy to seven points in the second half and forced Carson Wentz to cough it up three times (to be fair, one was a Hail Mary at the end of the game).
The defense remains stout upfront and is starting to get healthy again in the secondary after a loooong list of injuries. Sean Murphy-Bunting returned two weeks ago following an eight-game absence, and his presence was an automatic spark. Just like last year, the Bucs can ride a resurgent, QB-harassing defense all the way to the finish line.
5. Colts
The Colts have just two wins over teams that currently have a record better than .500, and they should have more than that. Late-game collapses against the Ravens, Titans, and most recently the Bucs have cost Indy a chance at sitting in the playoff picture, at least for now.
The loss to the Bucs, a game in which Indy led 24-14 at halftime, was tough to swallow. But the Colts only have themselves to blame for that considering two factors. First, they turned the ball over an uncharacteristically high number of times (five). And second, they went away from Jonathan Taylor, the best (healthy) running back in the league and the guy who had scored 12 touchdowns and averaged 132.5 rushing yards per game in the previous six contests. The Colts were 5-1 in that span, including a rout over the Bills on the road.
Last week aside, the Colts have started to gain their form after going 1-4 through the first five weeks. The defense has forced at least one turnover a week, usually more than that, and that alone makes facing them feel a bit daunting. Carson Wentz, even fresh off his three-turnover day, has been mostly steady and accurate. Taylor is a bonafide star now. In their last eight games, the offense ranks first in the NFL in EPA per drive.
Frank Reich has been here before, with a team that started off slowly and then went on a tear to make the playoffs. If the Colts can take the “be a goldfish” approach to their previous loss and just follow their coach’s lead, history could repeat itself.
6. 49ers
It wasn’t all that long ago that the 49ers looked like a baaaaad football team, one suffering from an extra-long Super Bowl loser hangover. They lost four in a row, won what was supposed to be a get-right game against the Bears, and then fell to the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch were suddenly on the hot seat.
Since then, they’ve reeled off three consecutive wins and they’ve done it in a similar way that got them to the Super Bowl two years ago: a strong running game, an efficient quarterback who gets the ball to his best weapons, and a defense that doesn’t give up a lot of yards and makes timely plays.
Although the injury bug continues to be cruel to the Niners, they’ve gotten a few key players back in recent weeks after both lengthy and short absences (Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell, Trent Williams, Jimmie Ward). While Dee Ford remains on IR, it helps having this guy healthy again this season:
(Bosa, who is double teamed more than any other defensive end, leads the NFL in tackles for loss.)
Losing Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner for a week or two still stings, and makes going against San Francisco a little less intimidating. But the 49ers have found their groove again and, as the current No. 6 seed in the NFC, have a great shot at making the playoffs.
7. Dolphins
For the first two months of the season, the Dolphins were one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. They were expected to improve on 2020, when they were 10-6 but just missed out on a playoff berth.
By Halloween, though, they were 1-7. Tua Tagovailoa missed time with a rib injury and then a broken finger, and there were questions about whether he was truly the franchise quarterback the Dolphins have been waiting on for years.
Then, after getting past the lowly Texans, the Dolphins were in a slugfest with the Ravens. Jacoby Brissett left the game with an injury and Tagovailoa came off the bench to lead Miami to a double-digit upset win. They won the games after that, too, and now only the Patriots have a longer winning streak than the Dolphins.
Brian Flores’ team is rounding into form and is coming off its most complete effort yet, a 33-10 thrashing of the Panthers. The defense has sparked the turnaround, but the growing chemistry between Tagovailoa and rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle has also been huge.
It’s likely that the Dolphins took too long to come together; FiveThirtyEight gives them a mere 9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Yet with several winnable contests on the horizon, and considering this team is playing its best football, the Dolphins can’t be counted out either.
Thursday Night Football picks, Cowboys vs. Saints
The Saints have officially hit the “Taysom Hill QB1” phase of their season. It might actually be a good thing.
Hill went 3-1 as a starter last season in place of Drew Brees after the 41-year-old broke most of the ribs in his body. Granted, that was against some underwhelming competition — the teams he beat went a combined 9-23 and he managed to lose to a crisis-mode Eagles squad — but Hill was mostly inoffensive at quarterback, completing 72 percent of his passes, throwing more touchdowns than interceptions, and most importantly adding more than 50 rushing yards per game.
That last facet will be vital to the Saints’ hopes for an upset win. We’ve seen the Eagles and Washington Football Team turn around their seasons after rough starts by transitioning to a run-first offense. Dallas hasn’t faced many mobile quarterbacks this season, and Hill’s ability to create first downs with his legs could further stymie a defense that’s given up 30 points or more in two of its last four games (to the Broncos and Raiders, no less!).
Even so, this is a great get-right opportunity for the Cowboys, who desperately need a win following a 1-3 slide. Alvin Kamara’s knee injury has continued to limit him in practice and if he can’t go New Orleans will be without its RB1, WR1, and TE1 … with Taysom Hill at quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys should get Amari Cooper back and have their top three wideouts together for a full game for the first time this season. That’ll give Dak Prescott the firepower to strike against a passing defense that’s lagged behind New Orleans’ top-ranked rush D. Hill showed he could win games as a quarterback last season; he never had to face anyone as good as Dallas. Cowboys take this one.