NFL Week 12: The losses that mattered most on a normal (?) Sunday
There were few surprises this week, but there were several crucial losses and some very ugly football.
Against all odds, this Sunday in the NFL was remarkably normal. There were no walk-off game-winning scores, like we saw twice on Thanksgiving and 23 other times this season. There were a couple of minor upsets but nothing that should’ve shocked anyone who has been paying attention.
So have we reached a point in the season when the weirdness has subsided, or was this holiday weekend merely an aberration?
Time will tell on that front, just like we don’t know for certain which results mattered most to the final standings. That said, we can make reasonable inferences about which teams produced the most significant losses on Sunday, at least based on what we know about this season so far.
1. The Browns, whose inability to come from behind doesn’t bode well for their playoff hopes
The 6-6 Browns have had four chances to put together a potential game-winning drive this season. They are 0-4 in those games, including their 16-10 loss to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Despite forcing four Lamar Jackson interceptions, the Browns could not capitalize off those mistakes and let an opportunity to jump back in the AFC North race slip through their fingers.
With a win, the Browns would’ve been within spitting distance of both the Ravens and Bengals, who they would’ve been 2-0 against this season. Now, the Ravens have a healthy 2.5-game lead over the Browns and are in top spot in the AFC. Cleveland also would have been sitting in the No. 7 spot in the AFC, which instead currently belongs to the Chargers.
It’s less and less likely that the Browns can mount a comeback in the standings either. All of their remaining opponents have a .500 or better record; Cleveland is 2-6 against such competition so far. Before Sunday, the Browns’ chances of earning a playoff bid hovered in the 30s — FPI had it pegged at 30.1, FiveThirtyEight said 32 percent, and the New York Times was more optimistic with a 38 percent chance. After Sunday, those not-great numbers have dipped considerably.
Chance of making the playoffs
NY Times: 25 percent
FiveThirtyEight: 19 percent
FPI: 19 percent
2. The Eagles, who missed a golden opportunity to gain ground on the Cowboys
The Eagles had been playing their best football of the season before this week. They had won three of their last four and had seemed to find their identity: a combination of a prolific ground game, opportunistic defense, mostly mistake-free offense, and Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat skills.
At the same time, the NFC East-leading Cowboys have lost three of their last four after looking like they were going to run away with the division just a month ago. If the Eagles could win on Sunday, they would be just 1.5 games back of Dallas with a rematch set for the final week of the season. All they needed to do was beat the Giants, who had just fired their offensive coordinator.
The Eagles did not do that. Instead, they fell 13-7 in a truly hideous offensive display that included four turnovers and two potential game-winning drops. Philly cost itself a chance of not only getting seriously back into the division race, but also of vaulting into the final wild card spot in the NFC.
Chance of making the playoffs
NY Times: 23 percent
FiveThirtyEight: 23 percent
FPI: 24 percent
3. The Colts, who could’ve gotten themselves back into the AFC South race
For a while, it looked like the Colts were riding the Hard Knocks wave to their fourth straight win and second in a row over a Super Bowl contender. But then the Bucs rallied, first from a 10-point halftime deficit and then to retake the lead with 20 seconds left after the Colts had tied it.
If they hadn’t blown it, the Colts could’ve gotten within one game of the shorthanded Titans in the AFC South. They could’ve also climbed to the No. 7 seed in the AFC, and with two gimme wins left on their schedule (against the Texans and Jaguars), their odds of securing a playoff berth would’ve been 80+ percent … much higher than their current odds.
Even with the Titans’ various injuries, they’re not in immediate danger of losing the AFC South lead now (FiveThirtyEight and the NY Times each gives them a 96 percent chance of winning the division and FPI has them at 98 percent). They still have a two-game lead over Indy and swept the season series. Plus, Tennessee has the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC, while the Colts also have to face the Patriots, Cardinals, and Raiders.
Chance of making the playoffs
NY Times: 48 percent
FiveThirtyEight: 53 percent
FPI: 42 percent
4. The Vikings, who are basically out of NFC North contention
The Vikings followed up their massive win over division-leading Green Bay with a loss to San Francisco, dropping to 5-6 on the year. Like all of their other losses this season, this one was decided by one score.
Of course, it doesn’t help that with a potentially game-tying score on the line, their quarterback does this:
The good news for Minnesota is that it currently holds the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The bad news is that by Monday night, the Vikes could be on the outside looking in again, if Washington tops Seattle. The worse news is that any outside chance they had at winning the NFC North is now pretty much dead — just a 2-4 percent likelihood, depending on which projections you use.
They don’t have a huge margin of error for a wild card spot, either. If the Vikings had beaten the 49ers, their chances of making the postseason would’ve been 83 percent rather than where they are now.
Chance of making the playoffs
NY Times: 49 percent
FiveThirtyEight: 50 percent
FPI: 48 percent
5. The Texans, who control their own destiny for the No. 2 pick
A loss isn’t always a bad outcome, at least when draft positioning is on the line. The Texans led the Jets for a while in the first half and then no-showed in the second half to fall to 2-9. For now that means Houston is penciled in to the second overall pick in the draft.
It’s possible the Jaguars or even Jets could jump them, and if things really get wild, that the Texans could catapult to the top of the draft order. But that would require the Lions winning two games, so if we’re being realistic, the No. 2 pick is Houston’s best hope to start its rebuild.
The Texans need help all over the roster, but they’d have their choice on which position to target first, whether it’s taking a quarterback in what appears to be a mediocre class, or going with a highly touted tackle or edge defender. Surely Jack Easterby and Co. won’t mess it up!
— SH
Christian’s Shit List
All the things I hated in Week 12
1. Cam Newton’s comeback train, derailing and absolutely destroying the nearby station
Here’s a list of all the worst single-game completion rates from a starting quarterback in NFL history. I’ve used all my graphic design skills to make a special insert for Newton’s Week 12 performance:
godDAMN. Cam’s 23.8 percent completion rate — 5 of 21 for 92 yards — is the seventh-worst completion rate in league history and the worst since 1995. One week after completing 6 of 7 passes of 10+ yards to answer lingering questions about his arm strength, Newton completed twice as many passes to the Miami Dolphins than his own players in the same scenario. Things got so bad he was benched for P.J. Walker, who currently has a 1:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a pro.
That doesn’t mean things are over for Cam, but eeeeaaarrgggh. Today was quite a win for all the Mac Jones truthers out there.
2. The Chargers are completely inscrutable
I backed the Broncos in this week’s picks because I figured Sunday was more of a must-win for them at home. I would not have picked them if I thought Teddy Bridgewater would be limited to just 18 dropbacks while playing through a leg injury.
But even though Drew Lock was briefly forced into action to throw seven passes (and an interception), Denver still managed to beat the once 4-1 Chargers in a 15-point game that didn’t even feel that close at the end. Los Angeles outgained Denver, ran more plays, and even won the time of possession battle (barely) … and still got stomped because of a Justin Herbert pick-six, a nothing running game, and a defense that allowed the Broncos to convert eight of 11 third downs.
A team that once looked like a Super Bowl contender now looks like the Chargers again. Herbert, after a beautiful Week 11 performance in a win over the Steelers, has once again vacated his momentum. You never know which version of this team you’re going to face, and that makes them simultaneously hilarious and terrifying.
3. The Eagles’ smothered hopes for a 10-win season
Philadelphia wasn’t supposed to be good this year. 2021 was supposed to be about absorbing insane amounts of dead cap space, seeing if Jalen Hurts can be any good, and sowing seeds for the future.
But the Eagles got through the toughest stretch of their schedule. Coming into Week 12, their immediate slate included:
Two games against the 3-7 Giants
Two games against the 4-6 Washington Football Team
One game against the 2-8 Jets
A bye
That left a very real possibility Philly could be 10-6 before a Week 18 showdown with the Cowboys. And then, in the midst of outgaining a still bad Giants team Sunday, the Eagles …
-turned a trip to the Giants’ 1-yard line into zero points before halftime:
-watched Hurts ignore a safe third-down checkdown to his running back in the red zone in order to throw into double coverage over the middle:
-fumble away a possible game-winning drive with under two minutes to play:
-and finally, ignite a thousand new Nelson Agholor jokes across eastern Pennsylvania
not once …
but TWICE:
Philadelphia had six drives inside New York territory and scored on exactly one of them. It lost 13-7 on a day where its run-first offense averaged more than six yards per carry. The forward pass is the Eagles’ cross to bear in 2021.
4. The Colts, who forgot they have the league’s top running back on their roster
Indianapolis led the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers for nearly 40 minutes of game play Sunday. And the Colts still managed to dial up 47 Carson Wentz passing plays.
This was an absolutely wild strategy, especially after Jonathan Taylor proved capable of gashing the Bucs’ formidable rushing defense for 58 yards on eight carries in one long fourth-quarter scoring drive. With those touches under his belt, he finished his day with … 16 carries and 83 yards.
Sure, Taylor started his day slowly, but taking the ball out of his hands meant giving it to an offense that turned it over four times and blew a 24-14 second-half lead. That should have been prime Taylor time. Instead, it turned out to just be more Colts suckball. — CD
Week 12 results, in five words or fewer
Bengals 41, Steelers 10
Dolphins 33, Panthers 10
Patriots 36, Titans 13
Giants 13, Eagles 7
Falcons 21, Jaguars 14
Cordarrelle Patterson is Falcons’ savior
Jets 21, Texans 14
Wilson wins, throws hilarious INT
Bucs 38, Colts 31
Broncos 28, Chargers 13
Don’t question Teddy’s toughness
Packers 36, Rams 28
49ers 34, Vikings 26
Niners running to the playoffs?
Ravens 16, Browns 10