5 veteran quarterbacks under the most pressure in 2023

Matt Ryan in his final (?) season didn't pan out. Which other QBs could be in danger of following a similar path with their new (or newish) teams?

Exactly two months after he was released by the Colts, Matt Ryan announced his next venture: as an NFL analyst for CBS Sports. Ryan has not officially retired, either because he’s keeping his options open or to secure the $12 million the Colts are contractually obligated to pay him. But it’s highly possible we’ve seen the last of the 15-year vet as a football player.

Ryan was a very good, occasionally great quarterback who was half-a-second away from a true legacy. He handled himself well on the field and off, even when the Falcons disrespected him by courting, and ultimately losing out on, Deshaun Watson. Ryan requested a trade and was eventually dealt to Indianapolis, which seemed like a perfect match. After all, the Colts were only a competent quarterback away from making the playoffs the season before.

Instead, Ryan never looked comfortable in Indy. He was benched (twice) and stumbled to a career-low in touchdown passes (14), TD rate (3.0), and QBR (42.9), while throwing 13 interceptions and fumbling a career-high 15 times (five were lost). That’s not the kind of quarterback Ryan will be remembered as, even if it was a shame to see his time in the NFL (likely) end in such futile fashion.

While certain players thrive in a new environment, a late-career fresh start doesn’t work out for everyone. Some quarterbacks in those situations — Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (even if he was benched for Brock Osweiler in his final season) — were hits. Others — like Ryan, Johnny Unitas, Joe Flacco in Denver, Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington — were misses. And then there were the mixed bags, a la post-Green Bay Brett Favre and post-Rams Kurt Warner. 

This season, we’ll have a good idea where several veteran QBs will land on that spectrum. A couple will be playing for a different NFL team for the first time in their careers. One is getting another chance as a starter. Meanwhile, two more will be trying to bounce back from flopping last year, their first in a new city. All will have something to prove — but who is in most danger of following in Ryan’s footsteps and flaming out?

Let’s take a closer look at each quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers

Teams: Green Bay Packers (2005-2022); New York Jets (2023-?)

In December, Aaron Rodgers turned 39, right around the age that many one-time greats not named Tom Brady started to fall off a cliff. Rodgers is coming off his worst statistical season, with a career-low in passing yards per game (217.4), adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.8), passer rating (91.1), QBR (39.3), and EPA (-16.5). However, unlike 2021 Ben Roethlisberger, 2020 Drew Brees, and 2015 Peyton Manning, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong and not like a wet noodle. 

You can find plenty of reasons for Rodgers’ drop in production last season, besides his number of years on Earth — no Davante Adams, a lack of weapons in Green Bay, uninspired playcalling, a broken thumb on his throwing hand (that perhaps led to some uncharacteristically poor passes).   

Those issues won’t necessarily follow him to New York¹. While Rodgers won’t have Adams, he’ll have a better supporting cast with the Jets this year than he had last year with the Packers. And more speculative on my part, Rodgers appears rejuvenated and more mentally checked in, whether it’s the result of his (eye roll) darkness retreat or just the freeing feeling of playing for a new team.

Yet, Rodgers’ mobility is a legitimate concern, and he isn’t joining a roster that’s quite “Super Bowl” good. I think Rodgers, if he stays healthy, can rebound in 2023 — though probably not at his MVP level from two years ago — and get the Jets to the playoffs. But I’d be surprised if they go much further than that.

Derek Carr

Teams: Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders (2014-2022); New Orleans Saints (2023-?)

Rodgers’ loss was supposed to be Derek Carr’s gain in 2022: That’s when the Packers traded Adams to Las Vegas, where he reunited with his former college quarterback. Adams still recorded WR1-type numbers, including a league-leading 14 touchdown receptions, and was named a first-team All-Pro for the third straight season. Carr, on the other hand, did not thrive — in fact, he was benched after an abysmal Christmas Eve outing against the Steelers.

Perhaps Carr’s days as a Pro Bowl-caliber starter ended that night. Or maybe not, and he was zeroing in on Adams too often and was forcing too many throws his way. After all, the sure-handed Adams hauled in just 100 catches of the 180 times he was targeted. Or maybe Carr simply never jelled with Josh McDaniels and his offense.

Now 32, Carr is only with the second franchise of his career. He signed with the Saints this offseason after he was released by the Raiders, reteaming with his first ever NFL head coach, Dennis Allen. Although Allen was fired only four weeks into Carr’s rookie year, having that familiarity should help Carr, who played under six different head coaches with the Raiders. 

Carr’s numbers mostly dipped in 2022, but a couple — TD percentage (4.8) and QBR (55.5) — were better than what he registered in 2021. He’ll also have the advantage of the Saints’ schedule, arguably the easiest slate of opponents in the league. 

In the latter part of the Drew Brees era, when the veteran QB was either hurt or less effective, the Saints still owned the NFC South thanks largely to their shutdown defense. That unit might not be as dominant as it used to be and if it, say, can’t field a consistent pass rush, then the pressure might be on Carr and the offense to carry the load. In those situations, I’d expect Carr to perform as he has most of his career: Sometimes he fails. Sometimes he succeeds. And like their new quarterback, the 2023 Saints should be right on that “average to above-average” line.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Teams: New England Patriots (2014-2017); San Francisco 49ers (2017-2022); Las Vegas Raiders (2023-?)

Somehow, Jimmy Garoppolo is both a better quarterback than he’s given credit for and not as good as his career earnings would lead you to believe. Garoppolo is limited and usually doesn’t put his team on his back, but he’s an efficient passer who can manage games well and, more importantly, win (even if QB wins is a useless stat!). 

Unfortunately, Garoppolo can’t stay healthy either. Only once has he played a full season: In 2019, when he helped the 49ers get to the Super Bowl … and then helped them lose the Super Bowl. Last season, when he replaced injured starter Trey Lance, Jimmy G was putting up similar numbers to that 2019 season and was even enjoying one of the best stretches of his career when the malevolent injury gods came for him again. 

By now, we know that Garoppolo can be a capable starter but that his team should also have a solid backup plan in case, or until, another injury happens. The Raiders, however, do not. The other quarterbacks on the roster are 37-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer, second-year UDFA Chase Garbers, and rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell, with the face of someone who simultaneously looks both 13 and 47 years old. 

Unlike Carr, Garoppolo will mesh well with McDaniels because he’s already played for him, when the former was Tom Brady’s backup and the latter was New England’s OC. How Garoppolo meshes with Adams is a bigger question — assuming, of course, that the receiver remains in Vegas this year. 

Despite that, I’m not sure that Garoppolo is an improvement over Carr, especially with how injury-prone he’s been as a starter. I don’t think Garoppolo will be a total bust with the Raiders, particularly in the locker room, where he’s always had a positive presence. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft a quarterback in the first round next year, which will probably feel like deja vu for Jimmy G.

Russell Wilson

Teams: Seattle Seahawks (2012-2021), Denver Broncos (2022-?)

The Broncos adding Russell Wilson last offseason made sense for both sides, even if the price was a little too steep. Wilson would be able to let it fly more away from Pete Carroll’s run-heavy scheme; Denver would have its first real franchise quarterback since pre-2015 Peyton Manning. 

As we all know, things did not go as planned. Nathaniel Hackett was fired before his first year as head coach was even over. The Broncos had the lowest-scoring offense in the league. Wilson sometimes rubbed his teammates the wrong way. In almost every meaningful category — TD passes, adjusted yards per pass, passer rating, QBR — Wilson produced career-low numbers. Except, that is, in one category in which he had a career-high number: He was sacked an NFL-leading 55 times in 2022. That wouldn’t surprise you if you watched Wilson at all last year, when he looked hesitant and slow. 

There’s still room for optimism with Wilson, though. Once Hackett was gone, Wilson played decently, even if two games at the end of the season is a small sample size. At the same time, several of his teammates were publicly supportive of Wilson. And last, but certainly not least, is his new head coach, Sean Payton, who knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks. If anyone can get Wilson back on track — i.e., getting the ball out faster, making quicker decisions, cutting down on the mistakes — it’ll be Payton.

That doesn’t mean Wilson will suddenly transform back into the quarterback he was a few years ago. He’ll be 35 in November, and there were signs at the end of his Seattle tenure that he was declining. Still, I think it’s fair to assume that Wilson’s play won’t be as dreadful this year as it was last year.

Deshaun Watson

Teams: Houston Texans (2017-2021), Cleveland Browns (2022-?) 

Deshaun Watson, who will turn 28 in September, is the youngest and most athletically gifted quarterback on this list. He’s also the only one who has been accused of sexual misconduct and served an 11-game suspension because of it.

That didn’t matter much to the teams that went into full-court press mode to try to land Watson. In the end, the Browns shamelessly outbid everyone else to the tune of a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, plus three first-rounders that were sent to the Texans in the trade. 

It was a staggering, and risky, price to pay, in more ways than one. By the time Watson took the field for Cleveland, he hadn’t played in a regular season game in 700 days. It wasn’t due to injury, though Watson has torn both of his ACLs (one in college, the other in his rookie year). Rather, his long absence was due to his suspension and his holdout with the Texans the previous year. 

The last time he was a starting quarterback was in 2020, when he led the NFL in passing yards and yards per pass and had the second-highest (and career-best) 112.4 passer rating. The version we saw in 2022 looked a million miles away from that. Even if you could temporarily ignore the ickiness of watching him play, Watson wasn’t really an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett. 

Then again, he only appeared in six games last season, and as Watson himself said, you can’t draw many conclusions from that limited sample. We’ll see what Watson can do after a full offseason to practice with his team — and, I suppose, without a pending suspension looming over him — and a good, if not overly impressive roster around him.

It’s difficult to imagine him looking as rusty as he was at the tail end of 2022, but the heat is on, both him and the team, for Watson to regain his early-career magic and turn the Browns into a contender. Personally, that’s not a bet that I would make.

1. TBD on the playcalling front because, well, that’s Nathaniel Hackett’s job now.