NFL Week 13: Truth and consequences
A lot happened on the football field Sunday, some of which will have major ramifications for the rest of the season.
I’m not sure why, but I wasn’t expecting this Sunday to be quite as eventful as it was in the NFL. When I sat down to write this newsletter, I was having a little trouble keeping track of the many links I had gathered. It reminded me a bit of a recurring segment on The Daily Show with Trevor Noah called “Ain’t Nobody Got Time for That,” when Noah does a quick rundown of headlines rather than focus on one main story.
In honor of Noah’s final episode later this week, as well as busy day in the leauge, I’d like to do a rapid-fire summary of all NFL news that I didn’t have the time (or space) for but that still deserved a shoutout:
Quite the week for revenge games: A.J. Brown torched the Titans, DJ Chark had his most productive game as a Lion vs. the Jags, and Malik Hooker scored the first defensive touchdown of his career against the Colts.
Noteworthy team scoring: The Browns’ defense (2 TDs) and special teams (1 TD) outscored the offense (0 TD) in Deshaun Watson’s debut, the Lions scored 30+ points for the sixth time this season, and the Cowboys put up 33 points in ONE QUARTER,
Noteworthy individual scoring: Christian Watson hauled in the seventh TD catch of his rookie year … all of which have come in a four-game span. Connor Heyward, son of Craig “Ironhead” Heyward, brought in the first touchdown of his career, and he did it against Ironhead’s former team. That happened just hours after Connor and Cam Heyward visited their dad’s grave.
Playoff elimination: The Texans and Bears are officially knocked out of postseason contention. However, no teams clinched a bid this week, even though the Vikings and Eagles both won.
Those odds and ends are worthy of discussion, but I’m not sure how much impact they have on the big picture. There were other developments around the league that will have larger consequences beyond what happened on the field on Sunday. Let’s take a look at a few of those pivotal outcomes.
The Bengals continue to own the Chiefs
The 2022 calendar year has been mostly good to the Chiefs, except when they do battle with the Bengals.
On Jan. 2, the Chiefs lost to the Bengals by three points, ending their eight-game winning streak. On Jan. 30, the Chiefs lost to the Bengals by three points, ending their six-game winning streak in the AFC playoffs. On Dec. 4, the Chiefs lost to the Bengals by three points, ending their five-game winning streak and reign atop the AFC (for now).
Joe Burrow has been on a tear recently, even with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined for a few weeks. In his last three games without Chase, Burrow threw for 831 yards, six TDs, 2 INTs, and had a 101.1 passer rating. He welcomed Chase back this week and went 25 of 31 for 286 yards, two TDs, 0 INTs, and ran for 46 yards and another touchdown. As usual, Burrow brought his “A” game against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes:
Kansas City’s defense, on the other hand, did not have its best stuff in Cincinnati. The Chiefs surrendered 431 yards, let the Bengals convert 7 of 11 third downs, gave up the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, didn’t sack Burrow until late in the game, and couldn’t do anything but watch as Burrow clinched the game:
This Bengals-Chiefs matchup followed a similar script to the previous two, in that both Burrow and the Cincy defense came up clutch while Kansas City couldn’t overcome its own mistakes.
The turning point came at the start of the fourth quarter when Germaine Pratt forced Travis Kelce to fumble. The Bengals capitalized off the turnover with a touchdown on the ensuing drive. The Chiefs got the ball back with plenty of time to score, but Harrison Butker missed a potential game-tying field goal and the Bengals were able to run out the clock for the 27-24 victory.
And just like last year, the Bengals seem to be jelling at the right time. The Ravens still lead the AFC North, but their penchant for close games, and Lamar Jackson’s injury, could give the Bengals the opening they need to win the division … again, just like last year
Meanwhile, KC fell to No. 2 in the AFC, behind the Buffalo. If the Bills can remain where they are, they’re guaranteed a bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs. However, they have a tougher remaining schedule than the Chiefs and also have to travel to Cincinnati before the end of the regular season.
Either way, these three teams should all be in the playoff field come January. And perhaps two of them will meet in the AFC title game. For the Chiefs’ sake, they better hope it’s not them vs. the Bengals.
The 49ers beat the Dolphins, but lose Jimmy Garoppolo in the process
The actual result of the game — a 33-17 win for San Francisco — was significant for both sides. The 49ers maintained their lead in the NFC West with their fifth straight victory, while the Dolphins fell a game back in the AFC East.
What happened during the game was a bigger deal, however. The Niners have been playing like a Super Bowl contender recently, but they just lost another starting quarterback to a season-ending injury. Jimmy Garoppolo, who re-entered the starting lineup when Trey Lance suffered a severe ankle injury in early September, broke his foot on Sunday. Garoppolo was having a solid season but had been playing his best football in the past month. In the four games prior to Week 13, Garoppolo had completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 925 yards, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, and had posted a passer rating of 114.3.
Rookie Brock Purdy took over for Garoppolo, and the final pick in the draft acquitted himself well in his first non-garbage time action. The 49ers were trailing 7-3 when Purdy came in, and he quickly helped them gain the lead, becoming the first Mr. Irrelevant to ever throw a touchdown pass in the regular season.
On the day, Purdy completed 68 percent of his passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
That’s a respectable performance, the kind that does just enough to keep San Francisco rolling while the defense does most of the heavy lifting. This week, the Niners gave up a quick-strike touchdown, then bounced back to mostly shut down Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense the rest of the way.
But there are questions going forward, such as: Does Purdy have the talent to play like that every week and help get the 49ers to the postseason? And if they make the playoffs, will they once again be ousted due to subpar quarterback play?
Most of all, though, this is a huge bummer for Garoppolo and his teammates:
Geno Smith saves the Seahawks
If the 49ers stumble at all, the Seahawks could be the ones with the most to gain. A few weeks ago, Seattle was the surprising leader of the NFC West, but a couple of losses, along with SF’s hot streak, has dropped the Seahawks to second place. Only one game separates the two rivals in the division, however, after Seattle’s rally on Sunday.
The Seahawks got a much feistier effort from the Rams than you’d think, at least a Rams team on a five-game losing streak and without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. They kept battling and it paid off when backup quarterback John Wolford led LA down the field for a go-ahead touchdown with three minutes remaining.
Yet Geno Smith, in the midst of the most prolific passing game of his career, stepped up. And with the ground game practically running on empty — Kenneth Walker III left with an injury, Travis Homer was out, DeeJay Dallas was banged up, and Tony Jones Jr. couldn’t see — he needed to. On Seattle’s final drive, Smith went 6 of 9 for 65 yards and hit DK Metcalf in the end zone for what ended up being the game-winning score:
That was Smith’s first fourth-quarter comeback since his second season with the Jets in 2014, as well as his first ever go-ahead TD with under a minute left. He finished the game with a personal-best 367 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception — AND he did that while sick.
The win lets the Seahawks keep pressure on the Niners in the NFC West, but it also keeps them in the playoff picture. If the season ended today, they’d earn the No. 7, and final, seed in the NFC.
The Giants-Commanders tie could have big ramifications in the wild card race
This season, the Giants and Commanders have had the Sisyphean task of trying to keep pace with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. They’ve done better than expected, even if they’ve taken different paths to their above-.500 records.
Entering Week 13, the Commanders were on fire, having won three in a row and six of their last seven matchups. On the other hand, the Giants had dropped two in a row and three of their last four matchups.
As it turned out, the Giants’ losing streak and Commanders’ winning streak both came to an end on Sunday because for the first time since Week 1, we got a tie in the NFL!
The Giants took the lead early in the third quarter, but Washington scored its first points of the second half with just under two minutes remaining to tie it up.
Although I have an aversion to using the word “moxie” to label any quarterback (blame former Penn State quarterbacks Matt McGloin and Trace McSorley for that), I’m at a loss to find a better descriptor for Taylor Heinicke. For most of the afternoon, Heinicke was average at best. Then, when the game was on the line, he turned the magic on, engineering a 90-yard drive with a few gutsy throws, including this fourth-down conversion:
The OT period mostly lacked drama, save for Graham Gano’s just-short 58-yard field goal try as time expired. But the tie could make for a more dramatic wild card race. Several times in the last decade, a tie has been the difference between a team making or missing the postseason.
Last year, the Steelers sneaked in as the final AFC wild card team with a 9-7-1 record. In 2018, both the Steelers and Vikings were the first teams out of the playoff picture in their respective conferences. In 2016, a similar outcome happened to Washington. In 2014, Ron Rivera’s Panthers won the NFC South because of a tie (and with just a 7-8-1 record).
A lot can change between now and Week 18, but here’s where the NFC wild card standings currently sit:
5. Cowboys (9-3)
6. Giants (7-4-1)
7. Seahawks (7-5)
Just out: Commanders (7-5-1)
FWIW, FiveThirtyEight and FPI both give the Commanders a slightly better chance of making the playoffs than the Giants, probably because NY still has to play the Eagles twice. It’s even possible that all four NFC East teams get to the postseason this year, which has never happened in any division in the Super Bowl era. If the NFC East becomes the first, then surely this tie will have played a major part in it.