The odds and ends of the 2023 NFL schedule
One team has a tough path to get back to the playoffs, and two brothers will face off (directly) for the first time in the NFL.
When the NFL unveiled the 2023 schedule on Thursday night, I immediately tried to identify the must-watch game of each week. I didn’t get much of a chance to delve into the calendar beyond that, at least not at first.
Since then, I’ve taken a closer look at how the upcoming season is laid out and came away with a few random opinions, such as how certain teams are set up to succeed (or fail) and which brother vs. brother battle is the most exciting. Here are my final (probably!) thoughts about the NFL schedule.
The best week to veg out in front of the TV: Week 14
When I first looked at the 2023 schedule, I quickly recognized which slate of games looked the most skippable. As I mentioned in my last newsletter, Week 3 seems like a dud for the most part. (Then again, if you recall what happened last year during Week 3, perhaps that just means we’re in for an extremely off-the-rails Sunday.)
On the other hand, it was trickier deciding which week was best suited for parking in your favorite chair all day and watching football nonstop.
As far as the actual matchups are concerned, I was initially drawn to Thanksgiving week. No one is on a bye, and because of the first-ever Black Friday contest, we’ll have four days of football — almost all of which are rivalries (Packers-Lions, 49ers-Seahawks, Saints-Falcons, Bengals-Steelers, etc) and/or meetings between playoff hopefuls (Bills-Eagles, Ravens-Chargers).
But I’m trying to narrow it down to the ideal week to zone out in football land. With all the family commitments, food preparation, and travel going on that week, Thanksgiving is not conducive to just sitting around.
So instead, I settled on Week 14, right in the middle of Thanksgiving and Christmas — a chance to recharge before the next round of family commitments, food preparation, and travel. Two teams have their bye that week, but it’s no big loss considering those two are the Cardinals and Commanders.
That Sunday begins with a couple battles that could be sneaky good, or at least have playoff implications: Jaguars vs. Browns and Panthers vs. Saints. The action ramps up in the late-afternoon window, with the Seahawks-49ers rematch and a potential AFC postseason preview between the Bills and Chiefs. If you decide to treat yourself to NFL Sunday Ticket1 this year, then it’ll come in handy that day.
One of the most hated rivalries in sports will close out the evening when the Eagles and Cowboys duke it out on Sunday Night Football, another result that should carry great significance to the playoff picture.
Finally, the week is capped off with a double dose of Monday Night Football, the third and final time we’ll have a (simultaneous, alas) MNF doubleheader.
The team that could regress (aka this year’s Raiders): New York Giants
The 2022 Giants were a pleasant surprise. In Brian Daboll’s first year as head coach, the Giants jumped out to a blistering 6-1 stretch and then hung on for a 9-7-1 finish and a berth in the postseason. They beat the Vikings in the Wild Card Round before bowing out at the hands of the eventual NFC champs, the Eagles.
With Daboll’s creative scheme, NY’s offense went from dead last in the NFL in DVOA to No. 10. Daniel Jones turned in the best season of his career — and received a pricey extension in return — and Saquon Barkley stayed healthy and will also be back this season. Though the Giants’ receiving corps dealt with a series of injuries, it has reinforcements coming in.
So why might they struggle to return to the playoffs? A few reasons: First, they ended the regular season ranked just No. 21 in overall DVOA, lower than every other playoff team except the one they beat. Second, they had a -6 point differential, worse than every other playoff team except the one with a losing record (the Bucs). Third, their record against non-playoff teams was 7-1-1, meaning they didn’t have a particularly difficult path to the postseason.
The Giants’ schedule is much more challenging this season. Five of their first six opponents made the playoffs last year. Seven of their first 11 games are on the road. They close out the season by facing the Eagles twice in the final three weeks. They have an NFL-high three short road weeks.
In other words, the Giants are like the 2022 Raiders, who were coming off an unexpected wild card bid and then couldn’t replicate their success due to a tougher schedule and a little less luck.
The over/under on New York’s win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, which might be good enough to win the NFC South but definitely not the NFC East — and probably wouldn’t get the Giants back in the postseason. That said, they defied expectations last year so maybe they can do it again.
The team that could sneak into the playoffs (aka this year’s Giants): New Orleans Saints
The NFC South is wide open, and every team in it has a relatively easy schedule — hardly shocking, for a division with an 8-9 champ last year. Based on win totals, the Saints are the slight favorite to take the crown this year.
While all NFC South squads will have a different Week 1 starter than they did in 2022, the Saints appear to have more of a sure thing at quarterback, thanks to the signing of veteran free agent Derek Carr. If Carr can play at his baseline “perfectly adequate” level, then New Orleans should be able to improve on last season’s 7-10 finish.
That’s especially true when you look closely at the Saints’ schedule. Only five of their opponents are coming off a postseason appearance — well, technically four, because they play the Bucs twice. And do we really even want to count Tampa, which is in reset mode after Tom Brady’s retirement and will be starting either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at quarterback?
So the other 2022 playoff teams on their schedule: the Giants (who will likely take a step back), the Jaguars (who haven’t had back-to-back postseason trips since 1999, the year Trevor Lawrence was born), and the Vikings (who haven’t had back-to-back postseason trips since 2009, the year when, uh, Trevor Lawrence was 10).
The Saints could face as many as seven quarterbacks who have never entered an NFL season as a starter, including up to four in their first six contests: Will Levis (Titans), Bryce Young (Panthers), Jordan Love (Packers), Trask (Bucs), and C.J. Stroud (Texans).
(Levis and Trask are longer shots to start, at least that early in the season, but it’s not like Ryan Tannehill and Mayfield instill much fear in defenses these days.)
There’s one other favorable quirk to New Orleans’ schedule: no cold-weather games. Considering what happened the last time he played in frigid conditions, I’d bet that no one is happier about that than Carr.
All eight of the Saints’ home matchups will, of course, be indoors, as will trips to Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and LA. The only times they’ll be playing outdoors will be in Carolina (Week 2), Green Bay (Week 3), New England (Week 5), and Tampa (Week 17).
The Saints still have some question marks, and if Desmond Ridder keeps developing or Young comes out of the gate strong, then the Falcons or Panthers could be stiff competition for New Orleans. Right now, though, the Saints are set up pretty well.
The team that could build momentum and just miss out on the playoffs (aka this year’s Lions): Chicago Bears
The Bears’ rebuild is right on schedule. In GM Ryan Poles’ second year at the helm, they added some nice pieces in free agency and the draft, surrounding quarterback Justin Fields with more weapons and giving the defense a much-needed influx of talent.
It took about seven weeks into last season, but Fields finally started looking comfortable in his new offense — and OC Luke Getsy figured out how to use Fields correctly. The year as a whole was rocky for Chicago, which ended up with the No. 1 pick, but Fields’ growth was a bright spot. Now entering his second year with the same coaching staff, Fields is “light-years ahead” of where he was, per Getsy.
Having that continuity should only help Fields’ progress, as long as he stays healthy. The Bears also have a fairly manageable schedule and the No. 1 net rest differential in the league. Their best-case scenario is that this young team puts it all together and, in a winnable division, emerges as the NFC North champs, similar to what the 2022 Jaguars did.
The more realistic scenario is the Bears follow in the 2022 Lions’ footsteps. They’re still a flawed team that will suffer setbacks, but they’ll be noticeably better — and, near the end of the season, the promise of what they can be will be evident.
Most underrated revenge game: Colts vs. Frank Reich and the Panthers (Week 9)
There are several high-profile revenge games on the 2023 calendar, most of which involve teams getting a rematch against the opponent that ousted them from the playoffs. But don’t sleep on the Week 9 meeting between the Colts and Panthers — neither of whom was even close to making the postseason in 2022.
Frank Reich is probably too nice to admit that he wants payback against the team that dumped him, but wouldn’t you, if you were immediately replaced by someone as unqualified as Jeff Saturday was for that job?
Almost a year to the date of his firing, Reich and his new team will host his former team. The more talked-about storyline could be the showdown between two rookie quarterbacks, if Bryce Young (expected) and Anthony Richardson (maybe!) are both starting. But I have to imagine that Reich, as understated as he might be, will be motivated to prove the Panthers right — for hiring him and for drafting Young at No. 1 — and make Jim Irsay regret how he ousted Reich last November.
Most anticipated sibling game: Trevon Diggs and the Cowboys vs. Stefon Diggs and the Bills (Week 15)
With all due respect to the Kelce brothers and the Week 11 rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs, we’ve been there, done that. Besides, Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce are both offensive players, so they’re never lining up against each other.
That’s not the case for Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs and Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, whose clashes are now an annual highlight of the Pro Bowl festivities. They’ve never faced off in an actual NFL game before, but that will change in Week 15, when the Bills host the Cowboys. It’s just too bad for their mom, Stephanie, that the matchup won’t happen a week later, over Christmas weekend.
There should be real stakes in Buffalo when the Diggs brothers go head-to-head on the field — that late in the season, both teams should be fighting for a playoff bid and/or seeding. But sibling bragging rights, while not as pivotal as a postseason spot, are meaningful in their own way.
As such, the Bills might want to steer clear of any trick plays that involve Stefon throwing the ball.
The good news for diehard fans is that it’s now much simpler to purchase NFL Sunday Ticket, which allows you to watch any game (at least the one not in your market). You no longer need to be a DirecTV subscriber to add the package. It’s available to anyone through YouTube TV.
The bad news is that — I know, major revelation here — it’s not cheap!