Our picks for a competitive (please?) Championship Weekend
This round probably won't be as gripping as the Divisional Round. Both conference title games should still be pretty solid ... we hope, anyway.
Chances are the Conference Championship Round won’t match the dramatics of last weekend. All four games were decided by a total of 15 points for an average margin of victory of 3.8 points, the lowest ever for the Divisional Round. When Matt Gay’s field goal Sunday afternoon sent the Rams home with a win, all three contests at that point came on game-winning scores as time expired — the most ever in a single postseason, not just playoff round.
And that was before the Bills and Chiefs went full-on Madden mode, combining for 25 points in the final two minutes of regulation and another six points on KC’s touchdown in OT.
We accept that this weekend probably won’t be able to compare to that in terms of pure entertainment value. But we’re hoping both titles games will be competitive and controversy-free (no uncalled DPI this year, Rams!).
So far during this postseason, we’ve alternated between a bad round for underdogs and a good round for underdogs. If that pattern (are two weekends enough for a pattern?) holds, then the Chiefs and Rams will meet in Super Bowl 56.
Here are the odds, as of Thursday night via DraftKings, for Sunday’s championship clashes (the favored team is in bold):
Bengals at Chiefs (-7)
49ers at Rams (-3.5)
Both are rematches, and in the case of 49ers-Rams, a re-rematch. Both underdogs won the previous meeting(s). Should we expect history to repeat itself or for the Chiefs and Rams to face off for the first time since their epic showdown three years ago? Let’s dive in.
Sarah’s picks
I went just 1-3 last weekend — and I’m perfectly fine with that considering the teams I was cheering for went 3-1. Plus, every game went down to the wire; there’s no shame in missing a pick (or three) when the result easily could’ve gone the other way.
And similarly to the last round, I would not be surprised by any outcome this Sunday. But I’m going to be a little boring and go with both favorites, though I won’t complain if I’m wrong:
Bengals at Chiefs
49ers at Rams
No matter what happens on the field this week, I believe we’re in store for a fun Super Bowl two weeks later. Based on the potential matchups I most wanted to see, I have high hopes for the one I think we’re going to get.
Why I picked the Chiefs
We know the Bengals can beat the Chiefs; they did so just four weeks ago on a walk-off field goal.
That was also in Cincinnati during the regular season. This time, it’s the postseason in Arrowhead Stadium — a house of horrors for anyone not named Tom Brady in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Joe Burrow is not Tom Brady, even if he shares a few similarities.
Burrow will be confident on Sunday and the rest of his team will feed off that. It should be a battle, especially with how well the second-year quarterback has performed in rematches.
The Chiefs are also great in rematches; they haven’t lost one since last year’s Super Bowl. Last month, Kansas City jumped out to a 21-7 lead in Cincinnati near the beginning of the second quarter, but the offense went stagnant in the second half and the defense let Burrow and Co. stage a comeback.
It’s difficult to imagine Cincy’s defense holding the Chiefs to three points in the second half (or any half) again. The Bills, with their No.1 defense, couldn’t stop them in 13 seconds. Once the playoffs started, Mahomes and the offense found their extra gear and are back to being a destroyer of worlds.
I can’t say the same for the KC defense, which has been reverting to its worst form. Their secondary injuries could also mean more snaps for Daniel Sorensen, and that, uh, did not go so well last time:
As explosive as the Bengals can be, though, they’ve been lackluster offensively against two so-so defenses in the postseason. In those two games, they’ve totaled only three touchdowns and made six red zone trips (or one fewer than the Chiefs did just last week). While they can absolutely score against Kansas City on Sunday, they don’t have the offensive consistency or momentum that the Chiefs do.
Nor do the Bengals have the experience. That’s not necessarily a bad thing:
However, when it comes to these particular circumstances — on the road against a team that has hosted four consecutive AFC title games — it’s not ideal.
I’d like to see the Bengals win; I think they’re a nice story, and it’s refreshing to see a new face make it this far since Super Bowls so often recycle the same quarterbacks/teams. But my logical side tells me it’s not wise to bet against the red-hot Chiefs here, when their offense is rolling like this and when they know exactly what it takes to get to the big game.
Why I picked the Rams
Based on NFL history, the 49ers have an edge in their third matchup against the Rams. In the Super Bowl era, teams that have beaten an opponent twice in the regular season have played them again in the postseason 22 times; 14 of those teams won a third time.
Of course, our most recent example went the other way. Last year, the Saints were 2-0 against the Bucs but then lost to them in the playoffs. I think the Rams will follow in the Bucs’ footsteps, even though their previous loss to the Niners came only three weeks ago.
The Rams should’ve ended their losing streak to San Francisco then, when they built a 17-0 lead in the second quarter. Or late in the fourth quarter, when they retook the lead, going up 24-17 after letting the 49ers tie things up.
Instead, LA blew it and fell in overtime for their sixth straight loss in the rivalry, while also sending the Niners to the playoffs.
Despite that collapse, and their comical almost-collapse against Tampa Bay last weekend late in the fourth quarter, the Rams have been playing better than anyone since the start of December. After a short adjustment period, midseason additions Von Miller and Odell Beckham have been big-time contributors. Matthew Stafford has looked sharp in the playoffs. Triple crown receiver Cooper Kupp picked up right where he left off in the regular season. Aaron Donald remains Aaron Donald:
The banged-up Niners secondary might’ve shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Saturday, but the weather in LA this weekend won’t be a freezing winter hellscape and if Stafford throws a deep ball, it won’t get lost in a snowy gust of wind. San Francisco also needed the Packers to deliver the worst special teams performance in NFL postseason history to pull off the upset. That won’t happen Sunday.
The 49ers are tough, and they have a little extra motivation after Jimmy Garoppolo turned into a hot debate topic this week (and brought out the dumb racists/sexists who merely wanted to criticize the excellent Mina Kimes).
The players on that roster and Kyle Shanahan have Garoppolo’s back and want to prove his doubters wrong:
But LA will want to get the bad taste of its Week 18 loss out of its mouth and end this skid against San Francisco. In the end, it comes down to this: the Rams are the better team and they’re self-assured enough not to let the 49ers get in their heads. I think they’ll atone for their earlier breakdown against the Niners and in the process, punch their ticket to Super Bowl 56 in the same stadium that will host the league’s championship game.
Christian’s picks
Good news everyone! I had my first perfect week of the season in the Divisional Round.
That’s right. Four losses. Each one at the buzzer. A thoroughly brutal kick to the junk from the football gods. Yet one that was entertaining as hell to suffer through because, you know, that was the greatest weekend in NFL history.
Now we’re headed toward what will almost certainly be a letdown after a full playoff slate of walk-off wins, but it should still be pretty solid. The Bengals can rewrite their history by preventing the Chiefs from winning their third straight AFC title. The Rams can make the Matthew Stafford trade worthwhile by toppling a team that looks inferior but is somehow 6-0 against them since 2018. There’s a lot to like here!
So let’s figure out who is going to the big game and if we’re looking at a Super Bowl rematch or instead watching Sean McVay’s delayed apology for the only boring Bill Belichick Super Bowl ever played.
Pick I like the most
Kansas City Chiefs (-340) over the Cincinnati Bengals
This isn’t a statement against the Cincinnati Bengals. It is genuinely inspiring how they’ve played this postseason. The Bengals’ last playoff victory came before the first Bush administration and they’re still out here, winning close games and acting like none of this is new or overwhelming.
But Cincinnati also had a fairly easy path to the AFC title game. Las Vegas and Tennessee ranked 21st and 20th, respectively, in overall DVOA this season. Joe Burrow already has a win over Kansas City under his belt, but that was at home and may have revealed the blueprint Zac Taylor will try to use again this Sunday (I’m still not convinced there’s more to his rise than just overperforming personnel).
There’s a very good chance Burrow torches the Chiefs’ undermanned secondary deep, but he’ll have to do it at volume to stifle a Kansas City offense that wore down the Bills’ top-ranked defense before scoring on six of its final seven wins last week. Cincinnati’s defense has been better than expected, but also dependent on momentum-crushing turnovers this postseason that have been at least partially the fault of dumb offensive mistakes (Ryan Tannehill’s interceptions, the Raiders’ decision to block Trey Hendrickson with a tight end on his strip sack).
The Chiefs don’t make many mistakes like that, and all the slop that marred their first seven weeks of the season has dried and crusted off to showcase the stunning veneer below. The Bengals have the chops to make this a game, but ultimately this feels like another Patrick Mahomes triumph and a third straight Super Bowl appearance.
Upset pick I like the most
San Francisco 49ers (+145) over the Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers’ playoff run has been the product of solid playcalling, a gorgeous defensive effort, and letting opposing teams find ways to beat themselves. We know the Rams are capable of that last part; in the past three weeks they’ve given up leads of 17-0 and 27-3.
San Francisco is capable of beating Los Angeles across a wide variety of outcomes. The Niners have proven it with a 6-0 record against LA the past three years. They have won slopfests where both teams combine for fewer than 500 total yards. They’ve come out victorious in shootouts where both sides score 30+. They’ve won blowouts and via walk-off field goals and walk-off interceptions.
One thing they’ve never done is beaten the Rams three times in the same season, which is concerning, but I’m not sure what LA coach Sean McVay can change this time out that San Fran’s Kyle Shanahan won’t be ready for. Cam Akers will get more playing time, but he gained only 48 yards on 24 carries and fumbled twice last week. Matthew Stafford has a favorable matchup against the San Francisco secondary, but so did Aaron Rodgers last week and it led to one offensive touchdown for Green Bay.
While LA *should* win, it feels as though the fates are conspiring to push San Francisco through. DeMeco Ryans is peaking as a defensive coordinator and able to exploit the long, quiet stretches the Rams’ offense has been prone to lately. Jimmy Garoppolo will do Jimmy Garoppolo things, but over the last three years the Niners have beaten Los Angeles when he has good days, when he has bad ones, and when he’s on injured reserve.
Expect another win Sunday, even if it doesn’t make much sense.