How each of the final four teams can lose ... or win the whole thing
We explore one reason why the Bengals, Chiefs, Rams, and 49ers could fall this weekend or end up as Super Bowl champs.
If someone told us at midseason that the final four teams in the playoffs would be the Bengals, Chiefs, Rams, and 49ers, then we probably would’ve been surprised by two or three of them. But here they are, each one a win away from a trip to the Super Bowl and two wins away from a championship.
All four teams have gone through their ups and downs this season. All four are peaking at the right time. And all four have a chance to lose this weekend or win the whole thing.
On that note, let’s take a closer look at the four remaining contenders to figure out how they could do either. They all have multiple strengths and weaknesses, but we’re going to focus on just one reason they will or won’t win the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals
Why the Bengals can win it all: Joe Burrow is that dude.
It’s not fair to compare any young quarterback to Tom Brady, who has won more, played more, and set more records than anyone in NFL history. But one of Joe Burrow’s former Ohio State teammates did just that … almost five years ago:
Though their origin stories differ — Burrow entered the NFL with a lot of fanfare as the reigning Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick — there are similarities between the two at this point in their careers. In Brady’s second season in the league, he quieted the naysayers when he just kept winning with a franchise that had zero titles to its name, despite being double-digit underdogs in the Conference Championship Round and Super Bowl.
In his second season, Burrow has shown the same type of confidence, which is so contagious that he has everyone around him believing in themselves too. Burrow refuses for the Bengals to be considered an underdog even though they were last week and are again this weekend:
It also helps that Burrow is really good — good enough to overcome a shoddy offensive line that let him get sacked nine times against the Titans.
In his last four games, Burrow has completed 76 percent of his throws for 1,563 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception (or was it?), and a 126.1 passer rating. The Bengals won all four. Underestimate him at your own peril.
Why the Bengals won’t win it all: Zac Taylor’s decision-making.
I could have chosen the aforementioned offensive line, but I’m going a slightly different route instead. As Christian said last week, the Bengals have the worst coach left in the playoffs — that was true in the Divisional Round and it’s even more true in the Conference Championship Round.
That’s not to discount what Zac Taylor has done — he coached the Bengals to their first playoff win in 31 years and first postseason road win ever. To be honest, I thought for sure the guy who went 6-25-1 in his first two seasons would be fired before Cincinnati even sniffed the playoffs.
But one decision can change any game, especially in the playoffs, especially in these playoffs (just ask Sean McDermott if he’d squib kick it if he had a do-over). And it almost happened with Taylor twice in these playoffs.
First, he wasted a timeout against the Raiders that could’ve bitten the Bengals in the butt, just as his uninspired play-calling nearly did. Then, it appeared like he tried to call a timeout right before the Bengals’ game-changing interception against the Titans:
It’s not like Taylor is incapable of making smart choices; after all, his late-game calls against the Chiefs led to the Bengals pulling off the upset. However, he has no experience as a head coach in this situation — with a chance to go to the Super Bowl and possibly win it — before, and his decisions so far in the playoffs haven’t been too encouraging.
Kansas City Chiefs
Why the Chiefs can win it all: The Death Star offense is back on track.
At the start of November, the Chiefs were 3-4 heading into a Monday night clash with the Giants. The week before, Kansas City’s once-dangerous offense scored three points in a 24-point loss to the Titans. The unit had also turned the ball over a league-leading 17 times at that point, more than they had in all of the 2020 or 2019 season. The Chiefs beat the Giants that night — barely — in a 20-17 slopfest.
They followed that up with another low-scoring win, 13-7, over the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Patrick Mahomes threw for a career-low (in games he’s finished) 166 yards and didn’t connect on any of his five deep passing attempts. Whether it was mostly due to the two deep safety looks defenses kept throwing its way or not, the KC offense was clearly out of sync.
Not so much anymore. I mean, you saw what Mahomes and Co. did on Sunday night to the Bills’ top-ranked defense. We all saw! When you only need 13 seconds to get into scoring range, you’re prooooobably doing just fine, offensively.
Now, counting the playoffs, the Chiefs are No. 1 in expected points added (EPA) per play with 0.154. (The next closest offense belonged to the Bucs, who finished with 0.127.)
There are several reasons for their resurgence: a normal regression to the means for what has been the league’s most consistently explosive offensive the past few seasons; the Chiefs adjusting to the defenses that adjusted to them; a rebuilt offensive line finding its rhythm; and taking better care of the football.
And that’s bad news for any defense tasked with trying to slow them down right now. The rotting corpse of the Bills defense agrees.
Why the Chiefs won’t win it all: The defense might be off track again.
When Kansas City’s offense was going through its midseason slump, the defense was there to, unexpectedly, pick up the slack. However, the unit still finished the season ranked in the bottom third of the league in DVOA and EPA/play.
Even when ignoring their atrocious five-game start to the season, the Chiefs haven’t looked very sharp defensively against the best offenses they’ve faced recently. In the last six weeks, the only offense it easily handled was the one with Ben Roethlisberger, in full Roger Murtaugh mode, at quarterback. Otherwise, the Chiefs beat the Chargers in overtime (when the defense didn’t have to take the field), lost to the Bengals after surrendering a 15-play, game-winning drive, juuuust held off the Drew Lock-led Broncos, and knocked off the Bills in OT (when the defense didn’t have to take the field).
The defense’s EPA/play in that time is 0.077, worse than the 0.038 mark it had in the regular season. It especially struggled without Tyrann Mathieu, who left Sunday’s game early after taking a hit to the head and who remains in concussion protocol.
As we know, the Chiefs are equipped to win a shootout with Mahomes and his loaded group of weapons (including Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Jerick McKinnon). But would you have trusted their defense to get a stop if they hadn’t won the coin toss against the Chargers or Bills? Naaaaah.
If not for Mahomes on the other side (or McDermott’s decision not to squib kick it), this would’ve been the last memory we had of the 2021 KC defense:
Los Angeles Rams
Why the Rams can win it all: Their loaded roster is finally jelling.
The Rams were taking the “Super Bowl or bust” approach even before they traded for Matthew Stafford, but his addition to the roster was supposed to be the missing piece. Then running back Cam Akers tore his Achilles over the summer, so they traded for Sony Michel. Then they traded for Von Miller because a contender can never have too many fearsome pass rushers. Then, almost simultaneously, Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice and they signed the suddenly available Odell Beckham.
LA’s total disregard of draft picks in favor of building a dream team was a risky gamble — and one that looked as if it wasn’t paying off at first. The team fell into a three-game slide after acquiring Miller and Beckham, losing to eventual playoff teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers) in a winless November.
Since then, however, the Rams have settled into a groove. Beckham has proven to be a nice complement to Cooper Kupp, as has Miller to Aaron Donald — particularly in the playoffs:
In the last two weeks, Beckham has had his best two-game stretch in a Rams uniform, with 10 catches for 123 yards, one receiving touchdown, and one passing touchdown. After Stafford’s rocky spell toward the end of the regular season, there was cause for concern about his ability to step up in the postseason, where he had never won before. Stafford quickly put those doubts to rest with strong performances against the Cardinals and Bucs (75 percent completion rate for 568 yards, four TDs, 0 INTs, and a 131.5 passer rating).
He also delivered the clutchest of throws when it seemed as if the Rams had fallen prey to Tom Brady’s witchcraft once again:
And with that, Stafford gave us permission to count out Touchdown Tom.
Why the Rams won’t win it all: They can’t get out of their own way.
The Rams’ next opponent is a familiar foe, and one that they wouldn’t be facing if not for … the Rams.
In the final week of the regular season, LA went up 17-0 over San Francisco in the second quarter. The Rams blew that lead in the next quarter and then blew another one with 26 seconds remaining when they let Jimmy Garoppolo engineer an 88-yard game-tying drive to send it to overtime. The Niners kicked a field goal, Stafford threw a pick, and that was the difference between San Francisco making the playoffs and missing out.
In the Divisional Round, the Rams nearly recreated 28-3, except they led Brady’s team 27-3. It never should reached the point where Stafford need to rescue them, but that’s what happened after four fumbles (one of which was a bad snap immediately after Miller recovered a Brady fumble), a missed field goal (Matt Gay was short on a 47-yard try), Jalen Ramsey getting barbecued by Mike Evans, and Eric Weddle’s hit on Evans nearly having severe consequences:
For as talented as the Rams are, they make a lot of idiotic mistakes at really inconvenient times. Those brain farts have cost them wins before and they could again.
San Francisco 49ers
Why the 49ers can win it all: They never stop fighting.
The 49ers are resilient, physically. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing through thumb and shoulder ailments in his throwing arm. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa left with injuries in their Wild Card Round matchup with the Cowboys, then bounced back to play the Packers in the freezing cold the next week. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and do-it-all playmaker Deebo Samuel have also been banged up.
The 49ers are also resilient, mentally. They didn’t flinch when they dropped to 3-5 midway through the season. They didn’t flinch when they needed a touchdown to beat the Bengals in overtime in Week 14. They didn’t flinch when they fell into a hole against the Rams in a win-and-in playoff scenario. They didn’t flinch when they twice needed late stops to hold off the Cowboys. And they didn’t flinch when the Packers scored a touchdown on their first possession of the game (it ended up being their only touchdown).
Most of the roster has been here before. They know firsthand what it takes to win in the postseason and how fast it can get away from you too. And the 49ers won’t let it happen again, at least not without a fight.
Why the 49ers won’t win it all: Jimmy Garoppolo’s tendency toward boneheadedness.
I think Jimmy G is a better quarterback than we often give him credit for — advanced stats like him, as do his teammates:
He’s also led three game-winning drives in the last six weeks. Garoppolo knows how to run Kyle Shanahan’s offense efficiently.
But Shanahan wouldn’t have traded up to draft a quarterback if he thought Garoppolo was the long-term answer, and he would put the ball in Jimmy G’s hands more in the postseason if he trusted him. Instead, Garoppolo has totaled just two touchdown passes in his five playoff starts (both came two years ago).
It’s hard to have too much faith in Garoppolo when you know, like a jump scare in a horror movie, that a terrifying moment could pop out of nowhere. Like it did when he helped the Cowboys get back in the game in the fourth quarter with an ill-advised pass, or minutes later when his QB sneak should’ve sealed the win but he screwed that up too, or when he ruined the 49ers’ best scoring opportunity against the Packers with this atrocity:
You dumb, beautiful man.
San Francisco’s defense and special teams bailed out its quarterback in all three instances, but it just takes one mistake at the most inopportune time for Garoppolo to cost the Niners a chance at a championship. Heck, that’s already kinda happened before.