Figuring out our playoff picks now that the crappy coaches have (mostly) gone home
Vegas says to expect a chalky weekend in the NFL. We disagree, to an extent.
Well, last week’s Super Wild Card Weekend didn’t quite live up to its name. There were two nail-biters and four blowouts, the last of which happened to be the first Monday Night Football playoff game. And somehow, Cardinals-Rams was more of a snuff film than the Chiefs putting Ben Roethlisberger out of his misery the night before.
Maybe the first round’s bad vibes merely set the table for what will be a lackluster postseason. Hopefully, though, we got the disappointments out of the way and now we can get to the good stuff.
The Wild Card Round was an aberration compared to recent history in one regard: there was just one upset and only one visiting team emerged victorious (the 49ers, in both cases). The oddsmakers think we should expect that deviation from the norm to continue into the Divisional Round, where all four home teams are favored — but overall, the lines are much closer than they were last week.
As of Thursday night, here are the odds, from DraftKings, with the favorites in bold:
Bengals at Titans (-3.5)
49ers at Packers (-5.5)
Rams at Bucs (-3)
Bills at Chiefs (-2)
If this weekend goes chalk, then that sets up two No. 1 vs. No. 2 conference championship games next Sunday. That’s neither rare nor common — the top two seeds advanced in both conferences in the same year twice in the aughts and twice in the 2010s. The last time it happened was three years ago, when Chiefs-Patriots and Saints-Rams delivered two memorable title games.
Should we expect a similar Conference Championship Round this year? Let’s talk about it.
Sarah’s picks
I went 4-2 last week and came oh so close to going 6-0. I figured we would get at least one upset, and I went back and forth on whether it’d be the 49ers or Cardinals. Ultimately, I believed Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray would both step up … and woof, I was super wrong about that!
This week, I’ve toyed with every different possibility and concluded that nothing would surprise me — any of the matchups could be routs in either direction and any could be one-score games that come down to the last play. We could get zero upsets or we could get four.
I split the difference and settled on two upsets:
Bengals at Titans
49ers at Packers
Rams at Bucs
Bills at Chiefs
Then again, I might be biased because I’m on record about how little I desire a Chiefs-Bucs rematch in the Super Bowl.
My confidence rankings, from most to least certain
Because there are only four games, I’m going to format my explanations a little differently and rank them by how much confidence I have in each pick, starting with the one I’m most sure about and working my way down. Full disclosure, though: I don’t feel all that confident in any of them!
Packers over 49ers
The 49ers are the kind of team built to defeat the Packers in January at Lambeau. They have a dangerous ground attack that can keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, a couple receivers who are always ready to hit a big play, or in the case of wide back Deebo Samuel, both. They have a stifling front seven that can bring the heat. They have a kicker who has never missed in the postseason. And they have never lost to Rodgers in the playoffs.
The Niners also have an unreliable quarterback who is perfect against NFC competition in January but who finds a way to royally screw up at least one each game. On top of that, Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with shoulder and thumb injuries. And while Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are expected to play, if they aren’t 100 percent, then the San Francisco defense has no chance of stopping Rodgers, No. 1 receiver Davante Adams, and Rodgers’ safety blanket Randall Cobb, who will return to the lineup after being activated from IR. They’re simply too explosive.
The last time these two met was in Week 3 in San Francisco. Garoppolo actually came through in the clutch with a potentially game-winning TD drive with 37 seconds left. But the 49ers gave Rodgers 37 seconds. Predictably, Mason Crosby’s 51-yard field goal sent the Pack home with a two-point victory.
This time, the Packers will be in Green Bay, where they haven’t lost this season, and are rested after a week off.
Can the 49ers avenge that loss on Saturday night? Absolutely. Would I bet on it? No.
Titans over Bengals
This is the only contest this weekend that isn’t a rematch from earlier in the regular season. These two teams did play last season, however, and the Bengals came away with a 31-20 win. Since then, both have gotten better defensively while Cincinnati has also taken a big step forward offensively thanks to the addition of deep threat Ja’Marr Chase.
The Bengals got a monkey off their back last week when they beat the Raiders for their first playoff win in 31 years. A couple weeks before that, though, they had a similarly pivotal victory when they came back to top the Chiefs, their first over a championship-caliber competition this season.
On the other hand, the Titans have proven all year that they can take down any opponent. They’ve already faced off against four of the other teams still in the playoffs and are a perfect 4-0 against them. Two of those wins came without their bulldozing running back, Derrick Henry.
There’s a good chance Henry returns this weekend, and even if he’s not quite back to his usual dominating self, he should provide a boost against an up-and-down Bengals run defense (they finished the season No. 5 in rushing yards allowed but No. 13 in run DVOA). Cincy will also be without starting defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, though pass rusher Trey Hendrickson has been cleared to play.
No matter what you think of his glasses, Joe Burrow has that “It” factor that could carry the Bengals to more wins this postseason … but they can’t stall out in the red zone like they did three out of five times last week. That could be tough: Tennessee’s red zone defense ranked No. 7 in the league this season.
In the end, I think that with their revamped defense, their playoff experience, and the extra week off, the Titans will be primed to reach their second AFC title game in three years.
Rams over Bucs
Picking against Tom Brady in the playoffs? What could go wrong?
Perhaps against my better judgment, that’s what I’m doing. The Rams, despite a three-game slide in November, have finally been clicking again after their strong start to the season — a start that included a 10-point win over the Bucs in Week 3.
The Tampa defense is healthier than it was then, but the offense is either missing a couple playmakers from that first matchup or they’re dealing with injuries (including but not limited to Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Ronald Jones). Most critical for Brady, though, is his offensive line is banged up; center Ryan Jensen is on track to play but right tackle Tristan Wirfs faces an uphill climb.
That’s not great news when a 44-year-old quarterback has to stare down three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller, who was not on the Rams roster last time these two teams met.
Then, Miller was still playing for the Broncos, just as he was six years ago when he lined up opposite Brady in the postseason. We know how that went:
In his last five games, Miller has totaled six sacks. Another midseason addition, Odell Beckham, has six touchdown catches, and a touchdown pass, in his last eight games in LA. If anything, this Rams team is better than the one that already vanquished the Bucs.
Of course, if anyone can get the ball out quickly to avoid a hard-charging pass rush, and take advantage of the Rams’ secondary issues, it’s Brady. But maybe this time, Brady won’t be enough. Maybe?
Bills over Chiefs
Like with my previous pick, I might be foolish for going against recent history — so far, the only proven way to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is to have Tom Brady as your quarterback.
Or I’m being savvy by taking what I believe to be the better team. The Bills went through a bumpy midseason ride, but since an overtime loss to the Bucs in mid-December, they’ve won every game by double digits. Not only do they boast defense in the league this season, but they are also the most complete team, per DVOA, left in the playoffs.
The Chiefs went through their own slump earlier this season, including an 18-point loss at home to these Bills. However, since the start of December, they’ve found their offensive rhythm again and look like the juggernaut that’s won the last two AFC titles. In the championship game last year, they cruised past Buffalo with mostly the same players who will take the field on Sunday.
The Bills used that loss as a motivation all offseason and improved their pass rush specifically to win a huge game like this. It worked in October when these teams faced off; the Buffalo defense was able to bring pressure and force Mahomes into making mistakes without blitzing. On offense, Josh Allen took care of the ball and had one of his best games, as a passer and thrower, of the year.
Then again, that was a regular season game, and Kansas City probably won’t cough the ball up four times like it did that day. The Chiefs are just too talented and battle-tested to beat themselves with so much on the line. The same Bills who laid waste to the Patriots a week ago will need to make the trip to Arrowhead Stadium, and not the ones who shrunk under the spotlight there a year ago. As great as they’ve been playing lately, it’s still unclear which one will show up this weekend.
Christian’s Picks
Welp, a promising start to the postseason was derailed on my stupid decision to back teams led by Mike McCarthy and Kliff Kingsbury. Remember y’all: coaching matters. There’s really only one head coach I’d avoid in the NFL’s Elite Eight, and that’s Zac Taylor.
Taylor has earned a long leash in Cincinnati by doing something Marvin Lewis never could and winning a playoff game, but I am skeptical about his strategy. This is a guy who was 6-25-1 coming into 2021 and decided his best offense against the secondary-deficient 49ers would be a run-first approach (the Bengals lost that game).
That makes the Divisional Round a tough weekend to pick. Let’s look at the two games I struggled with the most.
Pick I overthought, so consider fading it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-145) over the Los Angeles Rams
I gave plenty of thought to the 49ers’ running game vs. the Packers’ sieve-like defense, but based my decision on the QB battle in Green Bay. Figuring out the other NFC winner was tougher.
The Rams already handled the defending champions this year, but that was:
a) a regular season game in Week 3
b) before Matthew Stafford hit a late-season slump that made us all wonder how much of the Lions’ DNA had seeped into his blood
c) in Los Angeles
Now Stafford has to lead his team to a road win over Tom Brady, who is 14-2 in the Divisional Round all-time and 21-4 at home in the postseason. He’ll also have to deal with a revived Tampa defense that will have rising corner Jamel Dean in the lineup after he’d missed 88 percent of the Buccaneers’ defensive snaps in that Week 3 loss.
Cooper Kupp’s ability to improvise on the fly and Stafford’s ability to recognize it has been the engine behind the team’s biggest performances. Having Dean back in the lineup instead of Ross Cockrell will go a long way in limiting that. If Kupp is merely good instead of prolific, this becomes a battle between Stafford and Brady, which historically leans heavily toward the guy with 35 postseason wins instead of the guy with one.
Both teams will be able to rely on a punched-up running game to supplement that passing attack. The Rams get Cam Akers back, somehow, six months after his torn Achilles. The Bucs get Playoff Lenny back in the lineup after missing the last four games.
Fournette, coming off his most complete season as a pro and with a resume that includes eight touchdowns in seven postseason games, helps swing the offensive battle in Tampa Bay’s favor. The Rams have the better defense and their cornerback depth won’t be a glaring issue against a Bucs’ receiving corps missing two primary actors this postseason (Chris Godwin for a good reason, Antonio Brown for something else). Is that enough of an advantage to overcome everything else that points to a Buccaneer win?
Ultimately, I don’t trust Stafford after the inconsistency that cooled off his hot start and a handful of unfinished drives that wound up not mattering against the Cardinals last week. I will not be counting out Touchdown Tom this week. If you want my full breakdown, good news! I re-watched all of that Week 3 battle and laid out what that means Sunday here.
Upset pick I like the most
Buffalo Bills +100 over the Kansas City Chiefs
Hoooo buddy, this is not a bold call but I still had trouble with it. Wagering against Patrick Mahomes feels like betting against the cold embrace of death coming for us all. Rooting for anyone else in the playoffs vs the Chiefs means three full hours of anxiety and dread, no matter the score. The Bills could come out blazing like they did against New England last week and we’d all just somberly remember the 2020 comeback against the Texans and sigh “oh, right” while stress-eating our way into halftime.
Even so, I know Buffalo has the tools to pull this off. Kansas City’s defense is not the weak point we’d expected in a 3-4 start. But even if the Chiefs are streaking, Josh Allen is coming off a game in which he thoroughly dusted the Patriots’ No. 2 ranked unit en route to the first NFL game ever in which a team didn’t punt, kick a field goal, or turn the ball over on downs.
As dangerous as Mahomes is, he’s now got to face the league’s No. 1 defense after dissecting a Steelers unit that was less than the sum of its parts. At Super Bowl 55 the Buccaneers proved the best way to limit the former MVP is by chasing him around the pocket. The Bills will hit him with a pass rush that generated a 30.8 percent pressure rate — by far the highest mark in the league. More importantly, they did this despite only blitzing 26 percent of the time, 13th-highest in the league. Not only can Buffalo bring pressure, but it hasn’t had to sacrifice extra defenders in coverage to do so.
The Chiefs’ defense has been good lately, but most of their big triumphs came against overwhelmed teams. We saw them give up 17 second-half points against the Bengals to waste multiple early 14-point leads in a loss that ultimately cost them homefield advantage through the playoffs. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last six games and, with eight total touchdowns over that span, has been enough of a force that Kansas City can’t invest all its skill points in just stopping Allen’s passing game.
The Bills have the better defense and the more complete offense. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, homefield advantage, and the lingering sense of inevitability. Give me the former, even if I regret it.