NFL picks for a potentially upset-filled Divisional Round
There's a good chance we're in for a surprise or two this weekend.
I think the concept of time is too complex for humans to ever completely understand it. Is it even linear? Are we living every moment simultaneously? Why does time seem like it moves so slowly and also much too quickly?
For example, it feels like this regular season started and ended in a blink of an eye. At the same time, it feels like we’ve been waiting ages for the new generation of quarterbacks to take over from the old guard.
That time has finally arrived:
Tom Brady was eliminated last week. Aaron Rodgers didn’t even make the playoffs. Neither did reigning champ Matthew Stafford, who was injured for half the season. Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and the Manning brothers have long since retired.
Barring injury, the starting QB for the eventual Super Bowl winner will be under 30 for just the third time since 2015 (after Patrick Mahomes and Nick Foles).
Thank god, because the older generation was kinda boring.
Speaking of the mysteries of time, it’s funny how much, and how little, can change in just one year. Just take a look at the eight teams in this year’s Divisional Round. One year ago, four of them were still alive in the playoffs (Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, 49ers); two were ousted in the Wild Card Round (Cowboys, Eagles); and the other two were in the midst of upheaval after firing their coach (Giants, Jaguars).
Of the four franchises that moved on to last season’s Conference Championship Round, only the Bengals hadn’t made it that far in recent years. Will we see another new face (or faces) advance this weekend?
According to Vegas … no. All four favorites have played in their conference title games at least once in the past five years. Here’s a look at the latest odds from DraftKings, with the favored team in bold:
Jaguars at Chiefs (-9)
Giants at Eagles (-7.5)
Bengals at Bills (-5.5)
Cowboys at 49ers (-4)
But Vegas isn’t always right, as the Jags and Giants can attest. Judging by recent history, there’s a good chance that this round will feature at least one upset: Only twice in the past decade (2015, 2018 seasons) have we had a completely chalk Conference Championship Weekend with both No. 1 seeds and both No. 2 seeds.
I think, despite the relatively large lines, that an underdog (or two!) emerges from this group. So who has the best chance of doing it? I’ll try to figure that out below — but first, a word of warning: I’m about a career .500 picker in the postseason. Last week, all the games I was on the fence about, I chose incorrectly. Christian had a better record, so be sure to check out his picks for the Divisional Round.
Still, I’ll try to make a case for why each game this week could result in a surprising outcome. And maybe I’ll take a couple swings with my predictions.
The teacher vs. student: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
The Chiefs are rested after their bye — and after a season in which they weren’t tested all that often. They only lost three games all year, by a total of 10 points. Since Week 7, Kansas City has only tasted defeated once, against its new nemesis the Bengals. One of those wins was over the Jaguars in November. In that contest, the Chiefs built a 20-0 lead, which the Jags cut into during the second half, as they are wont to do. KC was never in any real danger of losing, however, and came away with a 27-17 victory.
The Chiefs have been here before. Patrick Mahomes, on the verge of winning his second NFL MVP Award, has brought this team to the Divisional Round in each of his five seasons as a starter. In fact, Mahomes has never not made it to the AFC title game.
Why the Jaguars can pull the upset: Doug Pederson
Pederson has never beaten his mentor Andy Reid — not many of Reid’s former assistants do — but he’s only faced him twice, including once when Pederson was with the Eagles and the matchup earlier this season. No team has gone through as a dramatic of a turnaround this year than Jacksonville, though, which is why Reid is caping for his protege to win Coach of the Year honors:
While his relatively young team is low on experience, Pederson isn’t. He went 4-2 in the postseason as Philly’s head coach, winning a Super Bowl just five years ago.
Pederson’s wisdom paid off in the Wild Card Round. Last Saturday night, the Jags found themselves down 27-0 to the Chargers. Yet Pederson’s advice to just keep chipping away at the deficit worked out. He made adjustments as needed, and he showed that he still knows when to get creative, as evidenced by the most pivotal play call of the game:
His players fed off his confidence and likely won’t be intimidated by a fiercer than usual Arrowhead crowd. But Jacksonville has to cut down on the mistakes. Getting destroyed in the turnover battle may not matter against the Chargers, but it will against the Chiefs.
My pick: Chiefs
Familiarity breeds contempt: Eagles vs. Giants
This season, the Eagles were the last remaining undefeated team and the first to punch their playoff ticket. The latter might be a good sign for their Super Bowl hopes, but to make it that far, first they have to get through a familiar foe … for the third time in just over a month.
The Eagles and Giants faced off for the first time this year in Week 14 and then again in Week 18. Philly swept the series, though the two matchups didn’t have much in common besides the outcome.
In Week 14, the Eagles visited New York and left with a 26-point win, their largest margin of victory of the season. Although they had Jalen Hurts under center — he would later miss two games due to a shoulder injury — the Eagles were without a couple of other big names who will be ready to go this round, including tight end Dallas Goedert and cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Four weeks later, Philadelphia edged its rivals by six points at home, but the Giants sat most of their starters and the Eagles were merely trying to win in the most effortless way possible. Hurts made his return to the starting lineup in the regular season finale and looked a little rusty, even against New York’s backups.
After another week of rest, Hurts says his shoulder is fine — and Brian Daboll, who was Hurts’ one-time offensive coordinator at Alabama, knows the quarterback will likely run more this Saturday than he did two weeks ago.
Why the Giants can pull the upset: The legs of Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley
For most of his career, Daniel Jones has been a sneaky-good runner. But I’m not sure the NFL fanbase as a whole properly appreciated his dual-threat abilities until last week, when he picked up 78 yards and seven first downs with his legs and made a little NFL history with his NVP-winning performance:
Saquon Barkley also came up big against the Vikings, with two touchdowns on the ground, including the game-winner. While the Eagles have a much stronger defense than the Vikings do, Minnesota’s run defense is better than Philly’s, per DVOA. The Giants’ best bet offensively is to attack that weakness with their top two playmakers.
Neither could gain much traction in their first go-round with the Eagles — though the Giants were playing from behind almost immediately — and both sat out the rematch. Even without Jones and Barkley, the Giants still rushed for 6.1 yards per carry against the Eagles in Week 18.
Daboll might have to get a little creative, however, to make sure Jones gets a chance to cook. Philadelphia ranked No. 1 in adjusted sack rate this season and sacked Jones four times in Week 14 (plus the pass rush got to backup Tyrod Taylor three more times). Round 3 between the Giants and Eagles could be decided by how each side’s defensive front holds up against a mobile quarterback.
Either way, I would not expect a blowout like the first time these two met.
My pick: Eagles
Watch out for the shootout: Bills vs. Bengals
We’ll never know how the Bills-Bengals Week 17 showdown on Monday Night Football would have unfolded. Before Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest and the game was subsequently canceled, the Bengals looked dialed in early. If I had to guess, I think they would have gone on to win.
Now it’s three weeks later, and these two recent AFC powerhouses will clash in Buffalo — not at a neutral site, for some reason. Emotions will be high for many reasons, but mostly because Hamlin and his recovery will be on everyone’s minds, fans included.
Both the Bills and Bengals will also be looking to prove that their shaky performances in the Wild Card Round were an aberration, and honestly, I believe they were. These two teams rank in the top five in overall DVOA this season, and we know how explosive each offense can be when it’s in a groove.
I think it’s too much to expect this game to be as much of a fever dream as last year’s Divisional Round matchup between the Bills and Chiefs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Joe Burrow and Josh Allen turned it into another shootout.
Why the Bengals can pull the upset: They have more trustworthy playmakers
Burrow and Allen are both top-tier quarterbacks. Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs are two of the best receivers in the game. That’s a pretty evenly matched QB-WR1 duo.
But after that, Burrow has the more reliable supporting cast: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon are more consistent threats than Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary. Burrow and Co. are also better at protecting the ball. Cincinnati turned the ball over 18 times during the regular season, fourth-fewest in the NFL. Buffalo coughed it up 27 times, third-most in the league.
Forget about last week, when the Bengals struggled to get into a rhythm offensively. That happened each time they battled the Ravens this season, and Buffalo’s defense, while very good, won’t be able to replicate what Baltimore did.
The biggest worry with the Bengals is that they won’t be able to protect Burrow (again) due to the (even more) offensive line injuries. But they’ve been in this situation before, and the Bills rank in the bottom half of the league in adjusted sack rate. If Burrow can get the ball out quickly to his targets, then Cincinnati’s offense will be just fine.
There’s one other, less tangible factor at play: The Bengals thrive off of being disrespected, and they’ve found another reason to feel that way. Uh oh.
My pick: Bengals
A renewed rivalry: 49ers vs. Cowboys
The 49ers are riding the NFL’s longest winning streak, which has stretched to 11 games including the playoffs. Brock Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 draft, is a perfect 6-0 as a starter, thanks to his efficient play, a bevy of weapons, Kyle Shanahan’s smart playcalling, and a dominant defense.
The Cowboys already got two monkeys off their back last week: Their first ever victory against Tom Brady, and their first road playoff win in 30 years (their last was, coincidentally, in San Francisco). To make it to their first NFC title game in 27 years, they’ll have to get through the scariest pass rush in the league … with a short-handed offensive line.
The Cowboys and Niners squared off for three straight postseasons in the early 90s, then didn’t meet again in the playoffs until last year. San Francisco’s defense led the way in that one too, getting to Dak Prescott five times in a six-point win. Both teams look a little different this year, but their philosophies haven’t changed much.
Why the Cowboys can pull the upset: They have the better quarterback
There is no question that Purdy has exceeded expectations, and perhaps over a longer timeline, he’ll turn out to be a full-time starter in the league despite his low draft position, as Tom Brady (sixth round), Tony Romo (UDFA), and even Prescott (fourth round) have done before him.
BUT COME ON:
Purdy doesn’t have the edge over Prescott in any of those categories. Prescott can win games practically on his own, as he did against the Bucs. Purdy has been bailed out at times from his receivers (and is lucky that he didn’t get them hurt).
In part because the Niners have so much more talent than their opponents, no one has forced Purdy to beat them. Dallas’ defense, which created an NFL-high 33 takeaways in the regular season, has the dudes who can get after Purdy. DC Dan Quinn, familiar with Shanahan’s offense from their time together with the Falcons, potentially knows how to poke holes in Shanahan’s scheme. And his similarly disruptive pass rush can take advantage of San Francisco’s weak spot along the interior OL.
Both defenses could shine on Sunday night, but in the end, if this comes down to quarterback play, only one of them is a proven commodity.
My pick: Cowboys