NFL picks and superlatives for Super Wild Card Weekend
The playoffs are here. What should we expect from the opening round?
Welcome to the NFL’s second annual Super Wild Card Weekend, which sort of did but mostly didn’t live up to its nickname last year.
Will this year prove that the “super” label is warranted? That’s to be determined, but here’s what we do know about this weekend’s postseason slate:
-7 teams that weren’t in the playoffs last year are in
-6 rematches of games played earlier this season
-5 first-year head coaches
-4 Andy Reid acolytes in the AFC alone
-3 days of games
-2 rookie seventh-rounders starting at QB
-and the largest spread in a wild card contest
Speaking of point spreads, Vegas only likes half of this round’s games to be close, which sounds about right to me. Before I make my predictions for all six matchups, you can check out the latest odds from DraftKings and Christian’s picks at FTW.
OK, now that you’ve done that, let’s preview the Wild Card Round with my own picks — and some superlatives as well.
Most likely to be a defensive showcase: Seahawks at 49ers
The 49ers swept the regular season series against the Seahawks, with their most recent win coming a month ago in Brock Purdy’s second ever start. San Francisco’s tenacious defense kept Geno Smith and Co. out of the end zone until late in the game, but the 49ers were able to run out the clock — quite literally, since Purdy did not attempt a throw on the final drive — for the 21-13 win.
As great of a comeback story as Geno Smith has been this year, I’d expect Seattle’s offense to similarly struggle on Saturday, particularly against an opportunistic defense that has forced eight turnovers in the last three weeks alone.
But San Francisco’s offense could have its own issues, even against a much less fearsome defense that ranks just 21st in DVOA. That’s because the weather forecast is predicting rain and heavy winds in Santa Clara this weekend. The last time the 49ers played in sloppy conditions, this happened:
This isn’t quite the same offense that suffered that Week 1 loss to, record-wise, the worst team in the NFL this season. Purdy has, against all odds, thrived since entering the lineup. Christian McCaffrey, who hadn’t rushed for 100 yards in his first six games after getting traded to San Francisco, has hit that mark in three of the last five weeks. George Kittle, who was injured for the early part of the season, has now scored seven of his 11 touchdowns in just the past month — including two against the Seahawks.
In all likelihood, both offenses will try to ride their ground game. The Niners are loaded at running back, especially after welcoming back Elijah Mitchell last week. The Seahawks have Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Kenneth Walker, who has averaged 118 rushing yards in the last three weeks.
Only one of them will be facing Nick Bosa and the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL, however.
My pick: 49ers
Most likely to be unpredictable: Chargers at Jaguars
When these two met in Week 3, the Jaguars never trailed, though the Chargers kept it close until the third quarter. Jacksonville went on to win in a 38-10 rout in which it relied heavily on James Robinson … who is no longer on the team and spent most of his Jets tenure as a DNP-coach’s decision. Trevor Lawrence also won’t have Cam Robinson to protect his blind side in the rematch; the left tackle is out for the season with a knee injury.
The Chargers will be healthier this time around (still not what I would call “healthy,” since this is the Chargers, but in better shape than earlier this season). Justin Herbert is no longer hampered by a rib injury. Center Corey Linsley and No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen have long since returned to the lineup. Joey Bosa is back. (Mike Williams, on the other hand, is out).
So a repeat of what we saw in September is probably not in the cards. That’s about as much of a prediction as I feel comfortable making for this game, which seems like the biggest toss-up of Wild Card Weekend.
In the past month, both the Jags and Chargers have been among the hottest teams in the NFL. The former has won five straight, while the latter had its four-game winning streak snapped last week. In two of its most significant wins in that span, Jacksonville’s defense saved the day. First, Rayshawn Jenkins intercepted Dak Prescott in overtime and brought it in for the winning score to complete a huge rally. Last week, Jenkins stripped Titans third-stringer Joshua Dobbs and Josh Allen (not the QB) picked up the fumble and ran it back for the Jaguars’ decisive score.
The Chargers haven’t had as much excitement lately — they also had a close call against the Titans, fwiw — but overall this season, they’ve been living on the edge. Seven of their 10 wins, as well as five of their seven losses, were one-possession games.
I think this matchup, unlike their first, will be a one-score affair, and I wouldn’t be surprised by whoever comes out on top. I’ve gone back and forth on who I think that will be, but in the end, I’m siding with the (slightly) more experienced team.
My pick: Chargers
Most likely to be a blowout: Dolphins at Bills
The Dolphins and Bills were pretty evenly matched both times they faced off this season. On a scorching day in September, the Dolphins held off the Bills by two points (it would’ve been four, if not for a butt punt safety). On a frigid night in December, Buffalo returned the favor and hit a game-winning field goal as time expired for the three-point victory.
Miami had Tua Tagovailoa under center for both contests, but he will not play in the rubber match (and maybe beyond). Since Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a dislocated pinkie, rookie Skylar Thompson will be the starter. To make matters worse for the Dolphins, Raheem Mostert, who put up a season-high 136 rushing yards against Buffalo last month, is also out. As such, the Bills are the biggest favorites in Wild Card Round history.
Thompson is not the only reason for that 13.5-point spread, of course. The Bills will also be playing for Damar Hamlin, who is back at home as of Wednesday for the first time since he terrifyingly went into cardiac arrest almost two weeks ago. Last week, Hamlin’s progress galvanized the Bills in their win over the Patriots, and his return to Buffalo will likely give his teammates another mental boost.
(I think it’s unfair to expect Hamlin to make an in-person appearance on Sunday, but if he does, that stadium will break all kinds of noise records.)
Still, we shouldn’t completely write off the Dolphins. After all, this is the “any given Sunday” NFL. Let’s say Mike McDaniel gets creative with a couple trick plays, the running game carries the load so Thompson doesn’t have to, and the defense forces a few turnovers. In that scenario, Miami could pull off the upset.
Possible? Yes. It just doesn’t seem very probable.
My pick: Bills
Most likely to go down to the wire: Giants at Vikings
It took until the final week of the season, but the Vikings finally did it: They beat an opponent by double digits. Granted, that opponent was the Bears, who were starting Nathan Peterman, but I’m just proud of Minnesota for figuring out how to win in a non-stressful way.
That was not the case in Week 16, when the Giants visited U.S. Bank Stadium, just as they will again on Sunday. Right before the two-minute warning, the Giants came back from down eight to tie things up. After that, Greg Joseph nailed a franchise-record 61-yard field goal for the Vikings’ league-record 11th one-score victory.
The Giants came up short that day, but they’ve been following a similar script this season. Eight of their nine wins have come by eight points or fewer, and they didn’t get a double-digit victory until Week 17. Their -6 point differential is only slightly worse than the Vikings’ -3 point differential.
These two teams live on drama, and I don’t expect Round 2 will change that. This will be a popular upset pick, because the Giants came so close to topping the Vikings last time and it seems inevitable that the Vikings’ string of good luck will come to an end in the postseason, as it has for the franchise’s entire existence.
To me, this comes down to the best player of the field: Offensive Player of the Year favorite Justin Jefferson. The Vikings’ star receiver has been quiet the last two weeks after his 12-catch, 133-yard performance against the Giants on Christmas Eve:
NY’s secondary is healthier now, but I think a hungry Jefferson will feast again.
My pick: Vikings
Most likely to bring the intensity: Ravens at Bengals
Ravens vs. Bengals is, arguably, the fiercest of all of this weekend’s rivalry games, even if it’s the second time they’ll battle in as many weeks. Neither side was at its best last Sunday in a chippy showdown.
The Bengals, on the field for the first time since Hamlin collapsed in front of them, were inconsistent, especially on offense. The Ravens rested quite a few starters and looked like it, with four turnovers on the day. Cincinnati won by 11 points, but it wasn’t a necessarily an easy victory — or a satisfying one, other than securing home field for the Wild Card Round and getting to take out some frustration on Roger Goodell:
But the Bengals weren’t going to complain about beating the Ravens, not after what happened in their first meeting. Rewind to a few months ago when these two AFC North foes clashed on Sunday Night Football, just as they will this weekend. The Bengals took their first lead of the game right after the two-minute warning, only to turn around and lose on a last-second Justin Tucker field goal.
Granted the Ravens had Lamar Jackson for that game-defining final drive, and he accounted for almost every yard. Jackson remains out with a knee injury, meaning Baltimore will have to start either Tyler Huntley (a game-time decision) or undrafted rookie Anthony Brown again. The offense has sputtered in Jackson’s absence, but the defense has stepped up and now ranks No. 7 in DVOA and No. 5 in weighted DVOA (which accounts for more recent performances).
Joe Burrow has had two of his least productive games this season against the Ravens and, gulp, is now down two starting offensive linemen after Alex Cappa’s injury. Baltimore’s defense will be coming for him:
The Bengals will be fired up too, and as they demonstrated last year, this moment isn’t too big for them. Just don’t be surprised if a fight breaks out at some point.
My pick: Bengals
Most likely to be beat expectations: Cowboys at Buccaneers
It feels like ages ago when the Cowboys and Bucs kicked off the 2022 Sunday Night Football schedule. Maybe that’s because it wasn’t a very memorable season premiere. Both offenses got off to a slow start in a 19-3 slog in which Dak Prescott injured his hand.
Since then, it’s been a weird year for both teams. Tampa’s offense has rarely been in sync, though the unit did have its best game of the season a couple weeks ago in the NFC South-deciding win over the Panthers. The Bucs still finished just 8-9, the first losing season of Tom Brady’s career (dating back to high school!).
The Cowboys have been the better team overall this season, but they’ve had worrisome lapses, like last week’s 26-6 lifeless loss to the Commanders. Their once-hot defense had two of its worst outings only last month (a loss against the Jags and a win over the Gardner Minshew-led Eagles).
None of that sounds like we’re in for an exciting rematch, but I think it’ll be more entertaining than expected. The Bucs will be looking to prove they’re not as bad as they’ve often played this year, and the Cowboys will be trying to break their eight-game road losing streak in the postseason.
Dallas has another ignominious streak to end: Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys, his best record against any opponent.
In the end, despite what we’ve seen from Tampa this season, it’s hard to bet against Brady — or for Mike McCarthy — in the playoffs. I’m calling for a deep touchdown pass to Mike Evans in the fourth quarter that seals the game.
My pick: Bucs