NFL Wild Card Round: True identity
Six teams are moving on to the Divisional Round because this weekend, they remembered who they are.
I had my doubts that our first batch of playoff games would put the “super” in Super Wild Card Weekend. But it kinda did! In the past three days, we saw four one-score games, an epic comeback, a few record breakers, a lot of questionable officiating, and maybe the last of Tom Brady?
Nah, we’re probably not that lucky. Still, the first round of the 2022-23 NFL playoffs gave us plenty to discuss, and because I tend to be a bit of an empath, I’m going to mostly skip over the stuff that bummed me out. I feel so bad for Brett Maher, Tyler Huntley, the hard-luck Vikings fanbase, and anyone who has any connection whatsoever to the Chargers franchise that I’d rather just acknowledge their pain and move on.
So let’s focus on the winners instead, how they each embraced a key part of their identity to advance to the Divisional Round, and what could await them next.
The 49ers lean on their defense and playmakers
The Seahawks weren’t just hanging with the 49ers on Saturday; they were leading at the half (by one point, but still). Although the Niners got the lead back on their first drive of the second half, it wasn’t until late in the third quarter when they finally took control of the game.
That’s when Charles Omenihu strip-sacked Geno Smith at San Francisco’s 19-yard line and Nick Bosa recovered the fumble:
Seattle went from being on the verge of scoring to quickly falling behind by two scores. The defense gave up a seven-play, 70-yard drive that ended in an Elijah Mitchell TD immediately after the turnover. On the 49ers’ following possession, Brock Purdy hit Deebo Samuel for a 74-yard touchdown pass (almost all the yards came after the catch, fwiw) on a pleasantly aggressive call from Kyle Shanahan.
The defense came up big once more, when Deommodore Lenoir intercepted Smith on the Seahawks’ next play from scrimmage. So in a span of about 5:30 of game time, the Niners forced two turnovers and blew the game wide open by getting the ball to their playmakers.
Their recipe for success is as simple as that: ride your defense and your plethora of extremely fast players who can find the end zone in a blink of an eye.
As impressive as Brock Purdy has been since being thrust into the starting role, the 49ers are at their best when they don’t put too much on his shoulders. In the first half, Purdy wasn’t particularly sharp (he completed less than 50 percent of his passes and missed a few of his targets), and the offense settled for too many field goals. In the second half, he got the ball to his weapons in space and let them rack up the YAC.
The defense wasn’t in a rhythm either, letting Smith and Co. rally from a 10-0 deficit to take a halftime lead. Seattle consistently found itself in second- or third-and-short as it averaged 5.8 yards per first down in the early part of the game.
That too changed in the second half, when the defense surrendered only six points (which came on a touchdown with two minutes to go after the game had long since been decided).
Since the 49ers are relatively healthy again (knock on wood), the biggest worry is that Purdy will turn back into a pumpkin at some point. So far, he keeps rising to the challenge — and Shanahan is gameplanning to make sure Purdy doesn’t have to win all by himself. But a limited QB is the main reason for the Niners’ two most recent playoff losses, and if they come up short again, that could be culprit once more.
The Jaguars never give up
If, after Trevor Lawrence’s fourth interception in the first half alone Saturday night, you said, “Will he be able to bounce back from this next year?”’ or “Sheesh, this could ruin him forever,” then I would have understood. But those thoughts never crossed my mind. Because I’ve seen what happened when fans started to doubt Lawrence, and in many ways it’s the story of the Jaguars’ season.
Heading into their Week 11 bye, the Jaguars were just 3-7, sitting at third place in the AFC South and 3.5 games back of first place. Lawrence hadn’t found much consistency either. His stats weren’t terrible, but they weren’t “savior of the franchise” good either, and that led to questions about how good of a QB he truly was.
His stats greatly improved after the bye, along with the Jags as a team (they went 6-1 to close out the season):
Lawrence in the first 10 games: 65.2 completion %, 233.4 passing yards/game, 13 TDs, 6 INT, 89.7 passer rating, 6.7 yards/throw, 5 lost fumbles
Lawrence in the final 7 games: 67.8 completion %, 254.1 passing yards/game, 12 TDs, 2 INT, 103.4 passer rating, 7.5 yards/throw, 4 lost fumbles
In two of its wins in that span — against the Ravens and Cowboys — Jacksonville stormed back after trailing by 17+ points, something that had only been done once before in franchise history.
And the Jags did it again in the playoffs against the Chargers, except this time, they had to crawl out of a 27-0 hole. In some ways, it felt inevitable — these Jags never quit, and the Chargers are forever cursed.
Still, the third-largest playoff comeback doesn’t happen if Lawrence isn’t able to shake off an historically awful first half:
Lawrence didn’t stop fighting, and neither did his team. They kept their cool. They made adjustments. They followed their coach’s lead and stayed confident.
So pretty much the opposite of what was unfolding on the opposite sideline. The Chargers couldn’t do any of the little things right, including (but not limited to): poor coaching, costly penalties, off-target throws, a wide kick, and a missed opportunity to seal the game.
On the other hand, the Jaguars didn’t panic, perhaps because they’ve been in similar situations before. And, after a game-winning kick as time expired, they’re moving on to the next round.
At this point, the Jags are playing with house money. Not many expected them to make the playoffs this year, especially two months ago when their postseason odds were 3 percent. And there is a good chance their season will end next week in Kansas City. But if they live on for another week again, don’t be surprised: That’s just the nature of “cockroaches.”
The Bills go as Josh Allen goes
By the time kickoff came around, the Bills were 14-point favorites over the Dolphins, the largest spread in wild card history. They looked the part of juggernaut early, going up 17-0 near the start of the second quarter. At that point, Josh Allen had already thrown five passes that went at least 14 yards, as well as one touchdown.
But Josh Allen giveth, and Josh Allen taketh away. Allen had fumbled once, albeit out of bounds. Before the half was over, though, he was picked off twice, directly leading to 11 points for Miami.
In Buffalo’s three losses in the regular season, Allen was responsible for 12 turnover-worthy plays. His lack of ball security could’ve cost them again in the playoffs.
At halftime, the underdog Dolphins, who were starting seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson, trailed by just three points. Soon after the break, they were ahead thanks to a strip-sack fumble recovery, Allen’s third turnover of the afternoon:
A few possessions later, the Bills retook the lead following an ill-advised throw from Thompson with Allen’s second touchdown pass. After that, he seemed to settle down a bit. On Buffalo’s ensuing drive, Allen went 3 of 4 for 64 yards, including a 23-yard touchdown that ended up being the difference in an eventual three-point win.
The final part of the game was, like Allen’s play, helter-skelter. The Dolphins scored another touchdown, and Allen fumbled again on his seventh sack of the day, though this one was recovered by a teammate. Miami threatened one more time but then turned it over on downs, in part due to some shoddy game management.
The Bills were a little lucky to escape. If they hadn’t been playing against a third-stringer, or if the Dolphins receivers hadn’t had so many drops, then maybe Buffalo’s mistakes would have come back to haunt them. But Allen made just enough positive plays to overcome the negative ones, and perhaps this scare can be the wake-up call the Bills need to clean up their game in the next round.
The Giants get big contributions from their young stars
In the first half of the season, the Giants were in top form late in games. Heading into their Week 9 bye, they were 6-2, with all six wins coming in one-score contests. In all but one of those, they trailed in the second half before rallying.
They couldn’t maintain that same level in the second half of their season. The Giants went 3-5-1 to finish the regular season and were just 2-3-1 in games decided by one possession. One of those losses came against the Vikings, who were 11-0 in such matchups.
Then the postseason came, and the Giants rediscovered their magic — just as the Vikings, predictably, lost theirs.
A few weeks earlier, the Giants came back to tie the Vikings late before giving up a couple of big gains to Justin Jefferson that set up Minnesota’s game-winning field goal. This time, the Giants were never behind in the second half, but they did need to answer when the Vikings tied things up in the fourth quarter.
NY immediately went back to work with the same plan that had served it well so far that day: a heavy dose of Daniel Jones (who played the game of his life) and Saquon Barkley. The 12-play, 75-yard drive, which included a conversion on fourth-and-1, ended with Barkley’s second touchdown — and the final score for either team.
Because this time, New York’s defense came through. On the Vikings’ next two drives, the biggest gain the Giants gave up was this controversial roughing the passer call:
That was the closest Minnesota’s offensive line came to slowing down Dexter Lawrence, whose pressure a few plays later forced Kirk Cousins to throw the ball short of the sticks on fourth down.
Like the Jags a day before, the moment didn’t prove to be too big for the inexperienced Giants. They were bolstered by clutch performances from several of their young first-round picks — Barkley (2018), Jones (2019), Lawrence (2019), Andrew Thomas (2020), and Kayvon Thibodeaux (2022) — in their playoff debuts. They’ve made it farther than most expected them to this year, and if they find themselves in a close game late next week, then watch out.
The Bengals let their defense shine
No one in the AFC has been hotter than the Bengals, who reeled off eight straight wins to cap off the regular season. When all three phases are clicking, they’re one of the most complete teams in the league. But, as they showed at times during their win streak and once again in the playoffs, if one of those units isn’t in sync, the others will step up.
While Joe Burrow and his many weapons are built to win shootouts, their three matchups against the Ravens were anything but. In fact, Burrow and the offense put up some of their worst stats of the season when facing Baltimore’s defense.
Luckily for Cincinnati, its own defense was there to save the day. This season, the Bengals have been better on defense than they were last year when they finished as Super Bowl runners-up (11th in defensive DVOA in 2022 vs. 19th in 2021). They also have a “bend, don’t break” quality to them, coming in as the No. 6 scoring defense in the league but No. 16 in yards allowed.
Never was that more apparent than in the turning point of their wild card showdown with the Ravens. Backup Tyler Huntley had marched the Ravens down the field after a Bengals three-and-out and they looked to be on the precipice of taking the lead. That was until Logan Wilson knocked the ball out of Huntley’s hands and Sam Hubbard ran it 98 yards the other way for the longest fumble return TD in playoff history:
It was also the final score of the evening, thus sending the Bengals on to the Divisional Round. (So if any Chargers or Vikings fans are trying to grasp onto any kernel of hope, look to the Bengals: They’ve now won four straight AFC playoff games that they never would’ve won prior to last year.)
The good news for Cincinnati is that it won’t face another defense like Baltimore’s this postseason. The bad news is that, once again, the offensive line is a huge concern, this time due to injuries. If Jonah Williams and/or Alex Cappa can’t return to the lineup, then the defense might need to carry the Bengals for a little longer.
The Cowboys get back to basics
The Cowboys’ first two offensive series on Monday night looked to be a continuation of their disastrous performance against the Commanders in Week 18. They went three-and-out both times and combined for -5 yards; Dak Prescott went 0 for 3 and was sacked once behind a patchwork OL.
It seemed like an ominous start to their playoff game in Tampa, the same opponent they lost to in Week 1. Instead, the Bucs never sacked Prescott again — and he didn’t have many more incompletions after that either.
From that point on, Prescott was on fire. He finished 25 of 33 for 305 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 24 yards and another score on the ground. As the matchup progressed, Prescott looked more comfortable and more dialed in:
For the most part, Prescott has been his usually solid self this year, except when it comes to turnovers. He was sidelined for six weeks with a thumb injury, and once he returned to the lineup, he started throwing interceptions at a higher rate (3.8 percent) than ever. In fact, he was tied with Davis Mills for the most picks (15) this season, even though Prescott appeared in three fewer games than Mills.
On Monday in his most productive game of the season, Prescott didn’t turn the ball over for the first time since a 40-3 blowout win over the Vikings in Week 11.
Not coincidentally, the Dallas offense was also humming like it hasn’t done consistently this year (it ranked just 15th in DVOA during the regular season, one spot ahead of the Bucs’ flailing unit).
At the same time, the Dallas defense found its mojo after losing some steam at the end of the season. The Cowboys had allowed just 4.8 yards per play for most of the season until the final five-week stretch when that number jumped all the way up to 5.7.
And what do you know, Tom Brady and the Bucs averaged 4.8 yards per play against Dallas, with most of those yards coming late, after the Cowboys were already up by more than three scores.
The Cowboys exorcised a couple demons in their wild card win. They beat Brady for the first time ever, and they got their first playoff road victory since 1992. And they did it by relying on their biggest strengths: a steady quarterback and a ferocious defense.
Next up, Dallas has its sights set on ending another streak — it hasn’t appeared in the NFC Championship Game since 1995. This version of the Cowboys can make it happen, but the competition gets much tougher from here.