What if Josh Allen had won the OT coin toss against the Chiefs?
Would the Bills have overcome their own cursed history and won their first-ever Super Bowl?
Every day feels like a constant barrage of one horrific news story after another. We live in a very dark time in this country’s history, and while I would never suggest you ignore what’s happening, I would also implore you not to wallow in despair. Neither is healthy, and neither is productive.
Find ways to help, then act. Do not give up. And take care of yourself too. You do not need to carry the weight of the entire world on your shoulders, because that’s no way to live either.
I would normally recommend turning to sports as a mental break, but the NFL is certainly no reprieve from the onslaught of bad news. In this past week alone, another young player’s life came to a tragic end, more of Dan Snyder’s misdeeds became public, and Deshaun Watson’s league hearing is now set.
And this is supposed to be the “boring” part of the NFL news cycle!
In my old SB Nation days, I would use the summer “break” as a reason to publish a little more lighthearted content, often in the form of theme weeks. One of my favorite themes was playing the “what if?” game, which we also did a couple of times last summer in this very newsletter.
I can think of no better time to take another trip into alternate history land than now. It’s June, the world is in shambles, and lately I have found a bit of comfort in reruns of an older TV show whose premise involved changing the past for the better.
On Fridays this summer, SyFy has been airing an all-day marathon of Quantum Leap. The episodes premiered 30 years ago, and often took place decades before that, and yet, Sam Beckett, as played by the inherently likable Scott Bakula*, is a hero for any time. In just the last two weeks, I’ve seen him beat the crap out of a young woman’s rapist, defend a fellow naval cadet who is gay, and take on the KKK. Based on what we know about his background, Sam’s goodness was there all along, even before he first leaped, but the character spent the entire series literally walking in other people’s shoes, and I’m sure that made him even more empathetic. Imagining what the world is like for people who are different from and less privileged than you is not a new concept, though it’s clearly a lesson that many still need to learn in 2022.
Recently, Josh Allen discussed how the infamous coin toss in his instant classic playoff game — a coin toss which the Chiefs won, then beat the Bills in OT without Allen getting a chance to touch the ball — still eats at him. So let’s make like Sam Beckett, along with a little help from Ziggy the computer, and see what would’ve happened if Allen had correctly guessed “heads” on the overtime coin toss.
1. Yes, the Bills most likely would’ve beaten the Chiefs
Ziggy probability: 82 percent
It’s not a foregone conclusion that, had the Bills received the ball when overtime began, they would’ve won. But the momentum of the game, in which both offenses were on fire and both defenses were gassed — remember, 25 points in the last two minutes! — suggests that whoever had the ball last was going to move on to the AFC title game.
Let’s not forget just how awesome Allen was in January, either. In two postseason contests, he completed 77.4 percent of his passes for 637 yards, nine TDs, and zero interceptions; posted a close-to-perfect 149 passer rating; and rushed 17 times for 134 yards. He also cemented himself in the record books:
Based on the way he was playing, I do not think he would’ve brainfarted the game away, which means that Buffalo would have hosted the similarly red-hot Bengals the following week.
2. The Bills probably would’ve beaten the Bengals too, but it’s less certain
Ziggy probability: 64 percent
It’s easy to say the Bengals would’ve lost to the Bills in Buffalo, but most of us thought they’d lose to the Chiefs in Kansas City. Instead, Joe Burrow and Co. rallied back from a double-digit deficit, then did what the Bills couldn’t do: stop Patrick Mahomes in overtime.
I can see how Burrow could have toppled the Bills, especially considering the roll he was on in the playoffs. Sure, Buffalo boasted the top-ranked overall defense in terms of DVOA last season, but it was also the least consistent, per Football Outsiders’ variance metric. The unit, which didn’t face many high-flying offenses in 2021, was also at its most vulnerable after Mahomes dunked all over it.
But the Bills’ pass rush was one of the best at bringing pressure — without blitzing, to boot. The Chiefs sacked Burrow just once and recorded four QB hits. No way that Cincinnati’s flimsy OL holds up that well against the Bills.
And unless Allen was completely spent after the previous week’s barnburner, I have a hard time believing he’d lay an egg at home against the Bengals. With a high of 23 degrees in Buffalo that day — 18 degrees cooler than the Bengals-Chiefs kickoff in KC — Allen probably would have been asked to run the ball a little more and he could’ve easily gained more yards than the Chiefs’ leading rusher (Jerick McKinnon, who had 65 yards) did against Cincy.
I think it would’ve taken a superhuman effort from Burrow (possible) and a cursed performance from Allen (also possible, since he plays for the Bills) for the Bengals to have still made the Super Bowl in this timeline. I wouldn’t have bet on it, though.
3. The Bills’ chances of beating the Rams in the Super Bowl would’ve basically been a coin flip
Ziggy probability: 51 percent
We’ll sorta get a glimpse at how this Super Bowl could’ve unfolded when the Rams and Bills kick off the 2022 season on Sept. 8. Still, neither team will look exactly the same as it did last season.
On paper, they were pretty evenly matched, with both ranking near the top of overall DVOA in 2021. The Rams were more battle-tested; they faced a tougher slate of opponents than the Bills, who came in at No. 32 on Football Outsiders’ strength of schedule rankings. They had the fearsome tag team of Aaron Donald and Von Miller. They also had a coach who had made it to the Super Bowl before (and one who probably would’ve opted to squib kick it against the Chiefs).
Yet the Bengals led the Rams for most of the second half, even though Burrow was sacked an inexcusable seven times. A late rally secured Sean McVay his first Super Bowl title, but such a comeback would’ve been much more difficult against a team with a more competent OL and a more mobile quarterback like Allen.
I would have agonized about this pick, and I wouldn’t have been surprised with either outcome. Ultimately, however, I would have taken the Bills and felt reasonably confident with that. Imagine that: the Buffalo Bills as Super Bowl champions.
*I think most of the country has a general feeling of goodwill toward Scott Bakula, but for someone who has been on TV, off and on, for more than three decades, he’s super underappreciated. I wish I could retroactively give him an Emmy for Quantum Leap — he was in almost every scene of every episode and brought so much grace, humanity, humor, and versatility to the show. He was nominated four times, but that was before the Emmys had a separate category for guest actors. So one year, he lost to Christopher Lloyd (a natural treasure for sure), who appeared in one episode of the Canadian drama Road to Avalon. Seems unfair!
I was a big fan of Quantum Leap. Scott Bakula was a really underrated actor. I bet a lot of struggling players would leap into another situation to change their script. Well written article.