What if Tom Brady and Drew Brees had taken different paths in 2020?
Would the Saints be champs?
Recently, I saw the movie Source Code for the first time, something I’ve been meaning to do ever since it was released 10 years ago. I have no idea why it took me so long to sit down for 93 minutes and watch a movie that 1) received favorable reviews, 2) has a stellar cast, and 3) falls into my favorite sci-fi subgenre: time travel.
(If I had to guess, my procrastination stems from this weird idea that I should deny myself an enjoyable experience until I feel like I’ve earned it somehow, like after I’ve accomplished all the tasks on my never-ending to-do list. At the start of the pandemic, I tried to get out of the habit and allow myself time to just relax and do something merely because I want to. Sometimes I succeed, but sometimes I still fail.)
Source Code might not have lived up to the decade-long buildup in my mind, but it was a pretty good movie and a perfectly pleasant way to spend an hour and a half one evening. Not to get too spoilery here: I thought I was getting a fairly straightforward “go back in time and prevent tragedy from happening” thriller, but that’s not quite what Source Code ended up being. Which was fine with me, because it also touched on the concept of alternate timelines — and whenever that storyline appears in pop culture (Back to the Future, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Fringe, Community etc.), I’m a sucker for it.
That brings me to the theme of today’s newsletter. As it turns out, my decision to finally watch Source Code reminded me of an almost-throwaway Adam Schefter quote from February:
At the time, I thought “hey, that’s a great topic to write about during the offseason,” and then I promptly forgot about it until now. And well, it’s the offseason. So below, I recruited Christian and RVB to take a trip with me to an alternate timeline of the 2020 NFL season, one in which Drew Brees had retired a year earlier than he did in our reality. — SH
If Drew Brees retired a year earlier, do you think Tom Brady would have signed with the Saints?
Sarah Hardy: I’m not questioning Schefter’s reporting skills and deep well of sources, but I have a hard time believing Brady ends up anywhere but Tampa. Considering what a meticulous planner he is, I think Brady probably had the Bucs picked out much earlier than any of us realized. His new team checked all the boxes: Florida doesn’t have income tax; he could play for Bruce Arians, a good coach who’s the anti-Belichick in a lot of ways (affable, laid-back, smiles like a human); he’d inherit a solid roster that he could help build; and he could move into Derek Jeter’s mansion.
The Saints would’ve been an attractive option, and Brady would know he could win with a team that had gone 13-3 the two previous seasons. Yet with the Saints’ always-dicey cap situation, Brady wouldn’t have had as much input in which other free agents could join him in New Orleans.
Plus, you can’t overlook how much ego factors into the equation. Brady could replace a fellow future Hall of Famer and perhaps even take the Saints further than Brees did in his last 10 years in the league. But in many ways, it’d still feel like Brees’ team. With Tampa, Brady could put his stamp on the roster much more than he could if he succeeded Brees.
Christian D’Andrea: It’d be a soft landing spot, but I still don’t think Brady would have opted for New Orleans. His theoretical receiving corps would have been a downgrade from what he ended up with in Tampa, and the Saints’ perilous salary cap would have made it fairly difficult to bring Rob Gronkowski and his $8 million contract aboard. Let’s compare top five targets across the two teams last season, assuming Antonio Brown would have signed wherever Brady landed.
Saints: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith, Brown
Buccaneers: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Scott Miller, Brown
That’s a clear advantage for Tampa, even before factoring in Bruce Arians’ reputation as a quarterback’s best friend. The 2019 Bucs averaged 10.4 air yards per pass in the final year of the Jameis Winston era, clearing the path for Brady to launch deep balls to competent targets in a way he hadn’t been able to since the Randy Moss days. Drew Brees averaged 6.4 air yards per pass in ‘19 and Taysom Hill only averaged seven yards per attempt last year. The Saints had a useful offense, but the Buccaneers were able to offer Brady exactly what he needed to prove he wasn’t washed yet.
Ryan Van Bibber: Wealthy New Englanders and New Yorkers, and Brady is kind of both, move to Florida to live out their last days. So it was kind of destiny. The Bucs were a much better match, for all the reasons you both have laid out here. For me, it’s really that he got more of a fresh start in Tampa, and on his terms, than he would have with the Saints.
If Brady had been the Saints’ quarterback last season, how far would they have gone in the playoffs?
SH: The question to me is which is more powerful: the magic of Tom Brady, or the near-annual playoff heartbreak that has afflicted the Saints the past decade?
I think Brady — who eliminated the Saints in our actual timeline — would have at least led them to the NFC title game. Brees nearly did the same, and he likely would have if he hadn’t turned into Nathan Peterman in his swan song game (134 passing yards, three picks, 38.1 passer rating vs. the Bucs). Brady would just need to play slightly better than “absolutely dog crap” and he’d have the Saints visiting Green Bay the following week. (Unsurprisingly, Brady has never had a playoff performance as poor as Brees’ final one.)
I feel less optimistic about their chances against the Packers in that scenario, though, which is where the Saints’ postseason curse rears its ugly head.
CD: This all boils down to two words: Slant Boy.
Davis posted that after holding Michael Thomas without a catch in the Saints’ season-ending loss on four targets. But Thomas was a function of Brees’ lagging arm strength; his average target was a whopping 4.3 yards downfield. As impressive as Davis’ coverage was that day, the degree of difficulty was turned down by a quarterback who lacked the confidence and functionality to wing shots downfield.
Brady’s average throw that same day traveled 9.6 yards downfield. That kind of output could have revived the player who’d averaged 7.2 catches and 99 receiving yards per postseason game before 2020. I think that pairing gets this theoretical NO team to the NFC title game, where Brady would abuse the Green Bay secondary for two quarters once again and then allow the league’s second-ranked defense to hold on for the win.
I don’t think Brady’s Saints would beat Patrick Mahomes, but I also didn’t think Brady’s Bucs would beat Mahomes. What the hell do I know?
RVB: We really didn’t talk enough about just how bad Brees was in his final season. (“We” as in the national conversation.) He looked like Sam Bradford dumping it off to the flat after his umpteen different injuries. The only thing that gave him an advantage was the cagey veteran thing.
I feel like, in the real timeline, the Packers and Saints were fairly evenly matched last season, except for the QB play. Green Bay did beat them 37-30 last year, but that was Week 3. It was also the most points New Orleans’ defense gave up all year. Swap out the QB, and I feel pretty confident that the Saints would beat the Packers in the NFC Championship, especially if the now infamous field goal attempt that so angered Aaron Rodgers was still part of the story. I honestly think the Packers might be more cursed in the postseason than the Saints.
With Brady in New Orleans in this hypothetical, who would have played quarterback for the Buccaneers last season?
SH: Coming into 2020, the last time an Arians-coached team had made it to the postseason, Cam Newton put a hurting on them. In the NFC Championship Game against the Cardinals, Newton passed for 335 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 47 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground, in a 49-15 bloodbath that sent the Panthers to the Super Bowl.
In a world where Brady passes over the Bucs, I can see Arians — who has always respected both Newton’s game and swag — snapping up the former MVP rather than letting him languish in free agency until he finally landed with the Patriots.
CD: Let’s say Tampa misses on Cam Newton and decides Teddy Bridgewater and Philip Rivers’ low-impact deep ball games aren’t a fit. They could retain Ryan Fitzpatrick for a bridge year, but they’d need someone to develop behind him.
And, in their search, they inadvertently solve a bunch of the Packers’ problems.
The Buccaneers quest for a franchise passer would lead them to Jordan Love with the 13th pick. Love would go to Tampa, the Packers would settle for Michael Pittman in the first round instead, and Aaron Rodgers’ ongoing breakdown with Green Bay would be limited solely to contract concerns instead of the fact his front office refuses to upgrade the talent around him.
RVB: I don’t remember the ins and outs of the free agency world in 2020, so I don’t know Brady’s path to Tampa Bay. But I wonder if they might not have held onto Jameis Winston once it was clear in early March that Brady wasn’t a realistic option. Again, I didn’t really follow the various insider rumors and reports last spring; it seems like there was something else going on at the time.
Back to Winston. He actually had a decent season in his last year with the Bucs, leading the league in passing yards, attempts and completions, along with a career high in touchdowns. He also led the league in picks and total turnovers, so there was that too. But when the season was over it was revealed just how banged up he was: knee injury, broken thumb and LASIK. Was Arians just fed up with Winston, or did he realize he had a good chance at landing Brady? Or both? The devil they knew might have been the best option without Brady, except for maybe Cam Newton or Ryan Fitzpatrick.
How would the 2020 season have gone for the Brady-less Bucs?
SH: The Bucs were 7-9 the previous season and could’ve easily been 9-7 without Jameis Winston’s record-setting turnover clip. The roster would still be loaded with talent on both offense (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin) and defense (Devin White, Shaq Barrett), as well as on the coaching staff. With a decent quarterback, I think they could 9-7 and still get a wild card bid. Even 8-8 might’ve qualified them, depending on their outcome against the Bears and if whoever was QB brain-farted that game away like Brady really did.
CD: That defense was still pretty good and Fitzpatrick remains good enough to lead an average team. Factor in an easy schedule and I can still see a nine-win season and a playoff berth.
RVB: Put a healthier Winston or Fitzpatrick in there, and I think 9 wins is realistic. Probably not good enough to get past the Divisional round, but that was still a pretty good team even with a lesser quarterback.
How much different would the 2021 outlook be for the Saints and Bucs in this scenario?
SH: Well, the Saints would be a Super Bowl favorite instead of dealing with a rather uninspiring quarterback battle.
In my scenario, Newton would play well enough to re-up with the Bucs, but if they hadn’t drafted a quarterback in 2020, they would in 2021 … which means Newton might’ve been stuck with Mac and Cheese in all timelines:
Sorry, Cam.
CD: The Bucs would probably be happy with a return to the playoffs in 2020, but their future with Fitz and Love in my hypothetical situation is … eesh. Maybe they would have been in on the Sam Darnold trade market or gone for the lower-risk play of Teddy Bridgewater, but they’d certainly be much worse off.
The Saints, on the other hand, wouldn’t have to slap together the grotesque theater of signing Taysom Hill to a four-year, $140 million contract extension. They’d have to shed a ton of contracts to keep a fairly compensated Brady around — they may have had to trade Marshon Lattimore this past offseason instead of somehow extending him — but whatever cost New Orleans would have to pay would be worth the price of moving Hill back to special teams and gadget plays.
In short, neither team looks great for 2024. But that’s more than worth the price of a Lombardi Trophy.
RVB: I think they would have had to have drafted a quarterback this year, depending on what kind of deal they re-signed Winston to in my scenario. That might have meant one of the day-two guys. Heck, I wonder if they still might’ve wound up with Kyle Trask in the second round? Or would there have been more urgency to trade up into the top half of the first round? The former seems most likely to me.
I wonder what they might have done in free agency with less money dedicated to the quarterback spot. They smartly re-signed their own guys anyway (Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Chris Godwin, etc.), but could they have added another, younger defensive lineman? Focusing on quality depth is always a smart move for contenders.
The Saints meanwhile would be Super Bowl favorites, like Sarah said. And because they’re the Saints, they’d be on the precipice of salary cap hell.
Bonus what if: How would Brees’ career have unfolded if he had signed with the Dolphins instead of the Saints in 2006?
SH: Barring injury, I think Brees would more or less be the same prolific quarterback in Miami as he was in New Orleans. I’m not sure Brees wins a Super Bowl if he doesn’t go to the Saints, but I think he’d be headed for the Hall of Fame either way.
What I’m more interested, though, is how Brees’ decision to snub the Dolphins changed the college football landscape:
I think Nick Saban stays with the Dolphins longer with Brees as his quarterback; they’d even make the playoffs. However, while Saban is a legendary college coach, I just can’t picture him winning the Super Bowl. After a few one-and-done playoff exits, he’d probably find his way back to college football. Maybe not at Alabama either. What if *gasp* he replaced Tommy Tuberville (currently trying to ruin our country) at Auburn?
(Please don’t tell Bama or Auburn fans that I mentioned such blasphemy.)
CD: A decade plus of Brees-Brady showdowns would have been fun. Factor in Peyton Manning and you’ve got three of the most prolific passers in the game all sharing one conference. It probably means a little less postseason success for all three quarterbacks, as they’d wind up cannibalizing each others’ records come January.
The biggest problem for a Brees Dolphins team would be a defense that cracked the league’s top 14 in yards allowed just once since Nick Saban was coach. Winning shootouts would be difficult thanks to the team’s lack of wideout talent from ‘06 onward. Miami’s leading receivers in that stretch include:
Ted Ginn (790 yards in 2008)
Davone Bess (754 in 2009)
Brian Hartline (twice, somehow)
Mike Wallace (862 in 2014)
and Danny Amendola (575 in 2018)
Those factors suggest Brees would have been the perfect follow-up to Dan Marino; a game-changing, respected-by-everyone quarterback who lit up the scoreboard and eventually retired without a Super Bowl ring.
RVB: Stephen Ross didn’t invest in the Dolphins until 2008, so I wonder if Brees had been there and they’d been a better team, if Ross would have spent his money elsewhere? Probably not since I seem to recall that Wayne Huizenga needed out of it anyway (I could be wrong on that too). But without Ross, I dare say the Phins might have been a better team. Either that or some other real estate speculator would have bought it, and it’d be the same old Dolphins team we’ve come to know and love, just another feather in the cap of some other South Florida grifter.