NFL picks for a cursed Divisional Round
I'm not saying curses are real, but they can certainly feel real.
Last week, The Curse wrapped up its first (and only?) season with a divisive and completely bonkers finale. I will keep it vague, but I don’t think I’m spoiling anything by revealing that the show always left it up to the audience to decide whether they believed the curse was real or not.
I occasionally refer to curses in the NFL, though I’m being a little facetious when I do. I don’t actually think an unseen entity has damned any team, even if I have no logical explanation for why franchises like the Chargers and Falcons invent new and painful ways to lose, year after year, decade after decade.
But NFL “curses” can feel real, and it’s one of the reasons I thought the Lions would get their hearts ripped out by Matthew Stafford last week. However, I was wrong — just like I was with most of my Wild Card Round picks.
In theory, the Divisional Round should be easier to pick. Three of the four games this weekend are rematches from earlier in the season, and only one of those is projected to be close. For the most part, I sided with the favorites. My picks are in bold below, listed with the odds:
Texans at Ravens (-9.5)
Packers at 49ers (-9.5)
Buccaneers at Lions (-6.5)
Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)
On the other hand, every one of those teams is looking to break its own curse of sorts. For some, that means trying not to fall into a trap similar to the one the Cowboys did last week, where they keep reliving the same nightmare every postseason (and probably will again next year).
It’ll work out for four of them this week, but not for the other four. Will I actually have a good record this round? Well, that’s TBD. But feel free to get a second opinion from Christian, who is better at picking playoff games than I am.
Ravens over Texans
The Ravens’ curse: They have never made it to the AFC Championship Game with Lamar Jackson.
Since Jackson’s rookie year, the Ravens are just 1-4 in the postseason. Jackson was the starter for all but one of those losses (last year’s close defeat to the Bengals). With Jackson under center, Baltimore has lost in the Wild Card Round, in the Divisional Round as the No. 1 seed, and in the Divisional Round as the No. 5 seed.
Jackson’s playoff stats haven’t been great. In those four contests, he’s thrown just three touchdowns to five interceptions, completed 55.9 percent of his passes, has a passer rating of 68.3, and has been sacked 19 times (almost five times per game) — all much worse than his regular season numbers, though he ran for more yards (91.8) and more yards per carry (6.8) on average.
That’s not to say that Jackson is solely to blame for the Ravens’ playoff shortcomings. But in the last few seasons, arguably no player is more important to his team. And if the Ravens are going to avoid another flop, then they’ll need Jackson to continue his MVP campaign into the postseason.
The Texans’ curse: They have never made it to the AFC Championship Game.
As the NFL’s youngest franchise, the Texans’ playoff success has been minimal. They have a 5-6 postseason record and are 0-4 in the Divisional Round. (They still have more playoff wins since 2002, their first year of existence, than a lot of teams, including the Cowboys and Dolphins.)
As such, they have never made it to Conference Championship Weekend and are one of 12 franchises without a Super Bowl title.
Recent history: These two squared off all the way back in Week 1. In his first ever start, C.J. Stroud looked very much like a rookie — which is what Baltimore’s defense does to most quarterbacks, rookie or not. After that, Stroud has looked very much not like a rookie.
In his first NFL action since early December 2022, Lamar Jackson was a little rusty, totaling two turnovers and zero touchdowns in what was still a fairly easy win for the Ravens. After that, Jackson put together an All-Pro season, one that should win him his second MVP award.
What I think will happen: The Texans dominated the Browns in all three phases last week in what was an impressive all-around team effort. Yet the Ravens have been the most complete team all season. An extra week off — two, if we’re counting when they rested their starters in Week 18 — shouldn’t mess with their rhythm, either. In fact, all it did was give their excellent coaching staff even more time to prepare, which is a scary prospect for their opponent.
Plus, Baltimore has been here before and hasn’t forgotten about its past failures. Jackson, in particular, has stayed focused on the ultimate goal — a Super Bowl — and should be able to get over the first hump this weekend. I think the Texans can be more competitive (and even score a touchdown or two this time) than they were in Week 1, but the Ravens have a clear talent advantage that should push them into their first AFC title game with Jackson.
49ers over Packers
The 49ers’ and Packers’ curse: The Kirk Cousins curse.
This particular curse doesn’t affect either team this weekend, but it will follow the winner into next weekend. As the prophecy foretells, any team that loses to Kirk Cousins will not make the Super Bowl that same season.
OK, OK. It’s not a prophecy, but it is a trend that has never been wrong so far in 11 seasons worth of data.
Unfortunately for San Francisco and Green Bay, both fell to Cousins and the Vikings earlier this season, before Cousins’ year ended early due an Achilles injury. So if this rule stays true, then whichever team wins on Saturday night will be doomed to lose in the NFC title game.
Recent history: Although the 49ers and Packers didn’t play each other during the regular season, they are a familiar pairing during the postseason. This weekend will be their 10th playoff matchup, which will also be an NFL record. The Niners hold a slight lead in the postseason series, with a 5-4 record. Two of those wins have come when Kyle Shanahan has bested his good buddy Matt LaFleur, first in January 2020 and then again in January 2022.
What I think will happen: Both teams have a different starting quarterback than they did in their last two meetings. Brock Purdy has taken to Shanahan’s offense nicely and has been one of the most efficient QBs all season. Jordan Love has been on a tear since Week 11, with 21 touchdowns to just one interception (including his nearly perfect game against the Cowboys last week).
Aaron Jones has also been heating up lately. The veteran running back has rushed for more than 100 yards in four straight outings, playoffs included, and scored three TDs in Dallas. That’s not great news for San Francisco’s defense, which is average against the run.
But I don’t trust Green Bay’s defense. Not that long ago, LaFleur seemed to be on the verge of firing DC Joe Barry (and he still could once the season is over). While the unit has stepped up during the Packers’ current four-game winning streak, the defense also gave the Cowboys a glimmer of hope when they allowed Dak Prescott to lead five scoring drives in six possessions. For long stretches, tight end Jake Ferguson was about the only Cowboys weapon who could do anything against the Packers. Now they’ll be facing one of the best tight ends in the league, George Kittle. If he can’t get open, then Purdy could just turn to Deebo Samuel. Or Brandon Aiyuk. Or Christian McCaffrey.
In other words, the Niners’ offense simply has too many playmakers for the Packers to keep up.
Lions over Buccaneers
The Lions’ curse: They’ve only appeared in the NFC Championship Game once … 32 years ago.
The Lions exorcized one demon last week when they won their first playoff game in 32 years. Now they have the opportunity to do it again. For the first time in the Super Bowl era, Detroit will host a Divisional Round game. If the Lions take down the Bucs, then they’ll be heading to the NFC title game for only the second time ever — and the first in, again, 32 years. And if they were to win again next week, then the Lions would make their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Bucs’ curse: The Creamsicle curse could follow them to Detroit.
Speaking of exorcizing demons, Tampa has a chance to sorta do that this weekend. Even though the Bucs will not be wearing their unlucky (but admittedly cool) Creamsicle jerseys, they lost 20-6 to the Lions the last time they wore the throwbacks. What if the Bucs need to beat the Lions in order to reverse the curse?
Recent history: As mentioned, the Creamsicle-clad Bucs dropped their matchup against the Lions earlier this season in Tampa. While neither side could get its running game going, Jared Goff’s connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown proved to be the difference-maker, just as it did last week. Goff threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns in that Week 6 clash, and St. Brown hauled in 12 catches for 124 yards and a score.
What I think will happen: The first part of the Bucs’ revenge tour was a success when they routed the Eagles in the Wild Card Round. Baker Mayfield was dialed in, despite dealing with ankle and rib injuries, and now has a new chip on his shoulder after a perceived slight from Lions safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
That could be trouble for the Lions, who should expect a much tougher challenge from the Bucs in Round 2. But the Lions will also have a raucous home crowd cheering them on, and a healthier group of players who missed their first go around with Tampa, including Gardner-Johnson and dynamic back Jahmyr Gibbs. David Montgomery, who started against the Bucs and left early with an injury, is also back in the lineup.
Detroit will have to convert on its red zone opportunities, but behind a confident Goff and a healthy starting offensive line and running back corps, I think the Lions’ offense will propel them to their second ever NFC Championship Game appearance.
Chiefs over Bills
The Chiefs’ curse: They have never won a playoff road game with Patrick Mahomes.
Admittedly, I’m cheating here a little because, well, Mahomes has never played on the road in the postseason. I should note that does not count his three Super Bowl trips, which were all technically neutral sites, even if his one loss came against the Bucs in Tampa.
So we have never seen Mahomes’ Chiefs in a true road playoff game, let alone in one of the most unwelcoming stadiums in the NFL. Before Mahomes arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs struggled away from Arrowhead Stadium. Since 2000, they have just one win as the visiting team in the postseason (against Brian Hoyer and the Texans eight years ago).
The Bills’ curse: They have never beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes has turned into a much-watch QB rivalry. In his time with the Bills, Allen is 3-1 against the Chiefs during the regular season … and 0-2 in the postseason. And that last playoff loss in Kansas City, which came two years ago in overtime, was one of the greatest playoff contests ever.
Recent history: The Bills’ current six-game winning streak began in Kansas City in Week 14, when an offside penalty on Kadarius Toney wiped out what would’ve been the Chiefs’ go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Afterward, Mahomes was uncharacteristically furious and even ranted about the call to Allen’s face (Allen was a good sport about it, and Mahomes later apologized). That was KC’s third straight regular season loss to Buffalo.
What I think will happen: Last weekend, both the Chiefs and Bills played well, though neither looked unbeatable. Mahomes and Allen were playing with an extra fire in their belly; the former shattered his helmet on a run, and the latter bulldozed his way to a 52-yard touchdown.
I expect both QBs to bring it again on Sunday. Will the rest of their teammates follow suit? Well, that’s the biggest question. Mahomes’ receivers have had a chronic case of the dropsies this year, though he has developed nice chemistry with rookie Rashee Rice. Meanwhile, the injuries keep piling up for Allen’s defense.
As hot and cold (and turnover-prove) as Allen can be, he’s been lights out in the playoffs throughout his career. I believe that can continue, even against the Chiefs’ stout defense. In the end, though, I can’t bet against Mahomes, especially facing a banged-up Buffalo defense. After all, Mahomes has never lost in the Divisional Round before.