NFL picks for a wide-open Wild Card Round
Let the playoffs begin!
If last year was the “Andy Reid coaching tree playoffs,” then this year’s postseason belongs to the Shanahans. This season, five coaches who led their team into the playoffs have worked under Mike and/or Kyle Shanahan: Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, Sean McVay, DeMeco Ryans, and, of course, Kyle Shanahan.
One of those men — Ryans, who is in his first season with the Texans — will be making his postseason head coaching debut. The others have been here before, with varying degrees of success. Only McVay and the younger Shanahan have coached in the Super Bowl, and only McVay has a championship on his resume.
That could change this year; Shanahan’s 49ers are the current Super Bowl favorites. But we’ll talk about them (and the Ravens) before next week’s Divisional Round. While those two No. 1 seeds have the week off, I’ll focus on the other 12 teams that will kick off the playoffs in the Super Wild Card Round.
First, though, I thought I’d share a few other tidbits I gathered:
This year’s field includes six teams that did not appear in last year’s postseason, as well as four franchises — Bills, Browns, Lions, and Texans — that have never won a Super Bowl.
Three of the teams in this year’s playoffs had a win total of 6.5 before the season began, second-lowest after the Cardinals: the Buccaneers, Rams, and Texans.
Three teams also had the most contributions, per snap count, from young players this year: 1. Packers, 2. Rams, and 3. Bucs.
The three teams surrounding Lake Erie — the Lions, Browns, and Bills — all made the playoffs in the same season for the first time ever.
This will be the first postseason since 2008 without Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll. While Belichick and the Patriots split as expected, Carroll is unexpectedly moving to an adviser role with the Seahawks.
This will be the first postseason since 1998 without Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Well, unless you tune in to the ManningCast for Monday night’s Eagles-Bucs clash.
This is the most wide-open Wild Card Round I can remember in some time. Every year, there is at least one upset, but this year, I honestly believe any of the underdogs can win. That’s not what I’m predicting will happen, but I’ve been wrong with my playoff picks plenty of times in the past.
Here are my picks for this weekend, in bold:
Browns at Texans
Dolphins at Chiefs
Steelers at Bills
Packers at Cowboys
Rams at Lions
Eagles at Buccaneers
Forewarning: I got pretty long-winded with my playoff preview below, but if you want a much more concise breakdown, check out Christian’s Wild Card Round picks at FTW.
No. 5 Browns at No. 4 Texans
The Browns easily won the first meeting on Christmas Eve, but the Texans will have C.J. Stroud under center for the rematch.
Current odds: Browns -2
Why the Browns can win: I don’t want to discount the enormous boost that Cleveland’s offense has gotten from veteran QB Joe Flacco. But if the Browns make any noise in the playoffs, it’ll be with the same unit that has carried them all year: that nasty defense. A few weeks ago, Houston’s offense didn’t score until the fourth quarter, well after Cleveland had the game in hand. The Browns rank No. 2 defensive DVOA — right between the Ravens and Jets, who both shut down Stroud.
Why the Browns can lose: The Browns turn the ball over a lot. In fact, they’ve coughed up the ball an NFL-high 37 times this season. They’ve managed to mitigate damage because the Cleveland defense also forces a good number of turnovers (28 takeaways, tied for fifth-most in the league). But this weekend, the Browns just so happen to be facing the team that’s the most careful with the ball. The Texans have turned the ball over 14 times this season, fewest in the NFL.
Why the Texans can win: One of the reasons that Houston has such a low turnover rate is because of Stroud, who finished the regular season as the NFL’s leader in TD: INT ratio — the youngest player to ever do so. Stroud is fresh off his best performance yet, and it came in the biggest game of his young career, with a playoff berth at stake. As we’ve seen all season, he can sling the ball around with pinpoint accuracy. That should be easier for him to do on Saturday if Cleveland’s secondary is without top cornerback Denzel Ward.
Why the Texans can lose: Houston’s defense has made strides this season, but the secondary has been a work in progress. Though cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has come on strong now that he’s finally healthy, he was their only bright spot in the previous loss to the Browns. The secondary allowed a whopping 265 yards to Amari Cooper alone (Stingley was only responsible for 43 of those yards), and safety Jalen Pitre was benched (but has since rebounded). It’s unlikely that Cooper will replicate his record-breaking outing, but the Browns have other weapons that could compensate for a less dominant version of Cooper. David Njoku, in particular, is one player to watch, considering Houston has had its struggles covering tight ends.
My pick: I was very tempted to take the Texans and would not be surprised if they pulled off the upset. In the end, though, I couldn’t bet against Cleveland’s defense.
No. 6 Dolphins at No. 3 Chiefs
In Week 9, the Chiefs jumped out to a 21-0 lead over the Dolphins and then held on for a 21-14 win in Germany. This time, the matchup will be in Kansas City — and the forecast on Saturday night is brutal.
Current odds: Chiefs -5
Why the Chiefs can win: No offense to Patrick Mahomes, but it’s Kansas City’s defense that has been the real star of the team this season. When KC’s offense has been out of sorts, the defense has been there to pick up the slack. During the regular season, the unit ranked second in the league in points allowed and yards allowed, and fourth in expected points contributed by all defense. The Chiefs already stymied the Dolphins’ high-flying offense once this season — and even scored courtesy of a fumble return touchdown. Now they’ll be playing in the frigid cold, which favors the tough Kansas City defense.
Why the Chiefs can lose: The offense has lacked rhythm for most of the season. The Chiefs finished second in the league in offensive penalties and tied for seventh in turnovers with 28. Mahomes is coming off the worst statistical regular season of his career, and it’s only partially his fault. His receivers have dropped 39 of his passes for an NFL-high 6.9 drop percentage. So if they can’t even hold on to the ball in good weather, what will happen when Saturday night comes and the temperature drops to freezing?
Why the Dolphins can win: You have to be able to run the football in cold weather, and the Dolphins can do that better than most teams, including the Chiefs. In 2023, Miami led the league in rushing yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns, while KC ranked 13th and 26th in those respective categories. Raheem Mostert totaled 12 carries for 85 yards (7.1 yards per carry) and a touchdown against the Chiefs last time around. McDaniel is optimistic that Mostert will be back in the lineup after the RB missed the last two games with knee and ankle injuries. They’ll also have De'Von Achane — who was on IR for the first Chiefs-Dolphins matchup — whose shiftiness could give the KC defense some problems.
Why the Dolphins can lose: By the time you’re reading this, Miami probably lost another player for the season due to injury. Last week, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel were the latest two defensive starters to see their season cut short. Although they signed a couple of veterans, including former Chiefs All-Pro Justin Houston, to shore up the pass rush, the Dolphins might not be able to overcome all their losses — on both the defensive side and offensive side of the ball.
My pick: Even if I didn’t think the weather was a concern for the Dolphins (it is), they are only 1-5 against playoff teams this season with a point differential of -91. Those two factors alone don’t bode well for Miami; neither does its terrible injury luck.
No. 7 Steelers at No. 2 Bills
Both of these teams looked DOA not that long ago, but they enter the playoffs with the two longest winning streaks in the AFC: the Bills at five, and the Steelers at three.
Current odds: Bills -9
Why the Bills can win: Not only are the Bills the hottest team in the postseason, but they also have the best record against playoff teams this season: 5-1. During their current winning streak, they’ve taken down the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins, all in must-win games. They haven’t done anything wildly different in that span, either. The Bills always had the talent to be a contender, and their offense was already one of the most efficient in the NFL. But recently, more clutch play from both Josh Allen and the defense has put Buffalo back in “Super Bowl or bust” mode.
Why the Bills can lose: The Bills have themselves to blame for being in so many down-to-the-wire games in the first place. They’ve turned the ball over 28 times, with Allen responsible for 22 of those (four fumbles lost and 18 interceptions, his most ever). They’ve also racked up 106 penalties on the season, seventh-most in the NFL. Which version will show up on Sunday? Maybe, like last week, it’ll be both. Historically, however, the disappointing version of the Bills tends to appear come playoff time.
Why the Steelers can win: At long last, Pittsburgh’s offense is starting to jell. Since Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback, the Steelers have gone 3-0, scored 30+ points twice (for the first time this season), averaged nearly 385 yards of offense, and turned the ball over only two times (both of which came during a downpour in Baltimore). In that same span, Najee Harris rushed for over 100 yards in back-to-back weeks for the first time this season. George Pickens also recorded two straight 100+ yard receiving games, and when the Ravens sold out to shut him down, Diontae Johnson came through with one of his most productive games of the year (89 receiving yards and the go-ahead touchdown). You might associate Steelers with physical defense, but it’s their physical offense that can carry them in Buffalo.
Why the Steelers can lose: The loss of T.J. Watt can’t be overstated. The Defensive Player of the Year candidate led the NFL in sacks for the third time in his career with 19, but he will miss this weekend’s game due to knee injury. The Pittsburgh defense can try a few things to make up for Watt’s absence, but it’s a tall task to slow down Josh Allen, the Dodge Ram of quarterbacks, without their own bulldozer, especially in harsh elements.
My pick: The Steelers have the better coach, but the Bills have the better team — and more recent playoff success. I’m riding with the hotter hand.
No. 7 Packers at No. 2 Cowboys
It’s been seven years since the Packers and Cowboys last squared off in the playoffs. A lot has changed since then — most notably, Mike McCarthy now coaches in Dallas, not Green Bay — but one thing hasn’t: neither team has made it back to the Super Bowl.
Current odds: Cowboys -7
Why the Cowboys can win: It might be a little simplistic to say “because they’re playing at home,” but the Cowboys have been unbeatable at home this season — literally. They finished 2023 with an 8-0 record in Dallas, and dating back to last season, their home winning streak is now at 16 games. The Cowboys have the NFC’s best point differential (+194) in large part because of their dominance at home. They have scored an average of 37.4 points at home and surrendered 15.9 points (those averages on the road: 23.3 points scored, 20.9 points surrendered). In the safe confines of AT&T Stadium, Dallas’ offense has thrown for more yards, rushed for more yards, and scored more touchdowns than when the team has been on the road, despite playing one more away game this season.
Why the Cowboys can lose: Well, it’s not the 1990s anymore. Since their last Super Bowl win 28 years ago, the Cowboys haven’t even made it to the NFC title game. They’re 5-12 in the postseason in that time and have come up short as the No. 1 seed, as an NFC East champion, and as a wild card team. It isn’t hard to find reasons to doubt this is the year they live up to expectations, either. Their only wins over playoff teams in the second half of the season came over the free-falling Eagles and over the Lions on a controversial officiating call.
Why the Packers can win: Jordan Love and the offense are on a roll at the perfect time. During the second half of the season, Love threw 18 touchdowns to just one interception as the Packers went 6-2 and secured a playoff spot in the final week. At the same time, Green Bay’s young receivers — including second-year players Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, as well as rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks — have broken out. Aaron Jones also returned to the lineup last month and has since put together three straight 100-yard rushing games, just in time for him to face the Cowboys, a team he has feasted against in the past.
Why the Packers can lose: As Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb put it, “Experience is everything.” The Cowboys have been here before. The Packers, by and large, haven’t. They have the youngest roster in the NFL, and they’re about to enter the most difficult venue for a visiting team, at least in the past two seasons. As admirable a job as Love and his receiving corps have done this season, they’re not on par with Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks, and Lamb.
My pick: I can’t put too much faith in McCarthy or the Cowboys in the month of January, but I believe Prescott will ball out. I also think getting the chance to play host will provide Dallas with the mental edge it has often lacked in the postseason.
No. 6 Rams at No. 3 Lions
With their playoff spots already clinched, the 49ers and Rams rested their starters in Week 18. That in turn led to Carson Wentz, of all players, running in a touchdown and passing for the two-point conversion to get the Rams past the Niners. It also gave LA the No. 6 seed, thus sending Matthew Stafford back to Detroit for the playoffs.
Current odds: Lions -3
Why the Lions can win: There’s a reason that Lions OC Ben Johnson has received several interview requests for head coach openings. Detroit’s offense is explosive, creative, and loaded with weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta (who is hopeful that he can play). This season, the unit ranked in the top five in most major categories, such as points scored, yards per play, expected points contributed by all offense, and DVOA. Jared Goff just wrapped up his most effective season since 2019, when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl. With payback on his mind, Goff will be protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL against a defense that finished the regular season at No. 22 in DVOA.
Why the Lions can lose: Because sometimes sports can be cruel, especially to teams like the Lions. Wouldn’t it just figure that Detroit, hosting its first playoff game in 30 years, would have to battle against its longtime franchise quarterback, who won a Super Bowl immediately after being traded? All because Carson Freakin’ Wentz converted an improbable two-point try in an otherwise meaningless game! Well, that and the refs screwing them over in Dallas. These are bad omens!
Why the Rams can win: The Rams’ offense isn’t quite as highly rated as the Lions’, but it’s been on fire lately. After a shaky start in the first half of season, Stafford has doubled his number of touchdowns, cut his interceptions in almost half, and has measurably increased his passer rating (from 82 to 104.5) and adjusted yards per throw (from 6.89 to 8.37). While Cooper Kupp is still his safety blanket, particularly in the red zone, fifth-round pick Puka Nacua has garnered all the headlines with his record-breaking rookie campaign. But don’t overlook running back Kyren Williams, who has totaled 100 or more scrimmage yards in all but three games this season. They all present a big challenge to a Detroit secondary that is susceptible to giving up yards.
Why the Rams can lose: Remember last postseason when Cowboys kicker Brett Maher missed five extra points? Well, that’s Rams kicker Brett Maher now. And again. He started this season for the Rams, then missed a few kicks and was cut, and then his replacement, Lucas Havrisik, wasn’t much better. So the Rams re-signed Maher before the playoffs. Did I mention yet that the Rams have the worst special teams unit in the NFL? Surely that won’t hurt them at an inopportune time or anything.
My pick: My head says that Dan Campbell’s Lions have proven time and again that they’re not the hard-luck Lions of years past. The nagging voice in the back of my mind, though, is whispering that Detroit was doomed as soon as Stafford and the Rams were slotted into that No. 6 seed. I hope I’m wrong because redemption, not more heartbreak, makes for a better story.
No. 5 Eagles at No. 4 Buccaneers
The Eagles didn’t have much trouble with the Buccaneers in Week 3, and after the game, Bucs linebacker Devin White said, “We’ll see them again.” He was right.
Current odds: Eagles -3
Why the Eagles can win: There are many issues that have plagued the Eagles during their 1-5 skid, but one part that has mostly been working is their running game. In their only win in that span, Philly fans implored the team to run the ball — and the Eagles did, with success. While Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a finger injury and No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown could be out, Hurts can still tush-push his way to yards on the ground behind his rock-steady offensive line. D’Andre Swift will return to the lineup after missing Week 18, which should be a relief for Eagles faithful. Swift ran for 130 yards on 16 carries, his best yards/per carry (8.1) of the season, last time against Tampa, whose defense ranks just No. 22 in run stop win rate.
Why the Eagles can lose: Dear god, that defense has been atrocious lately. The return of Darius Slay is the only good news this unit has had in the past month and change. Slay will at least help stop the bleeding in the secondary, though he can’t do much about a defensive line that can’t get pressure and a black hole at linebacker. The defense needs a major overhaul in the offseason, but in the meantime, there’s not much the Eagles can do about their personnel problem.
Why the Bucs can win: The Bucs’ stars have stepped up in the last six weeks, during which the team went 5-1 (the exact inverse of the Eagles’ record). That run put Tampa in the playoffs for the fourth straight season, the only NFC team to accomplish that feat. Baker Mayfield, at least before the rib injury he suffered in Week 17, has played at a high level in that stretch, with 11 touchdowns to only three interceptions and a passer rating over 100. Mike Evans completed his record 10th straight 1,000-yard season and casually led the NFL in touchdown receptions (13) this year. Antoine Winfield Jr., snubbed by the Pro Bowl, was correctly named an All-Pro after his monster season; the safety can, quite literally, change the outcome of a game with his playmaking skills.
Why the Bucs can lose: Tampa’s offense has been all over the place this season, and Mayfield’s injury could limit what the Bucs can do when they have the ball, as it did last week when they managed just nine points against the lowly Panthers. That might not be such a complication if they had a competent running game. However, TB came in dead last in rushing yards and yards per carry this season, with a season-low 41 yards on the ground in the Bucs’ first meeting with the Eagles.
My pick: I’ve given up on hoping the “real” version of the Eagles shows up again this season, and if they had been matched up with any other opponent this postseason, I would have picked against them. But the Bucs are the one team that the Eagles, even in their current slump, can beat.