NFL Wild Card Weekend: Defining moments

No single play decided any games in the first round of the playoffs, but a single play did represent what happened to each team.

When the NFL announced that the wild card matchup between the Bills and Steelers would be moved from Sunday to Monday, I was relieved. Mostly for the players and the fans who had planned to attend in the snowy and frigid conditions. But also because I liked the idea of having three straight doubleheaders to open the first weekend of the playoffs. 

However, I ended up being a little disappointed with the results — and I’m not talking about who won or lost. The games themselves were not particularly competitive. The average margin of victory was 17.3, fifth-highest in playoff history. And because the six contests were so spaced out, I struggled to find a coherent message to tie the Super Wild Card Weekend together. 

Whenever I sat down to write this newsletter, all I could come up with was a bunch of half-formed ideas. I wrote almost 900 words and scrapped them all. Then I hoped that once Monday’s games were over, maybe an overarching theme would magically appear to me. It never did.

So I thought I’d just take the honest approach here and admit that I don’t have much to say at the moment about the big picture. I think in some respects, I’m still trying to digest most of what happened, like what went so wrong for the Cowboys (this time), where the Eagles go from here, and how the Dolphins, now the owners of the longest playoff win drought, can get over the hump.

But I also don’t like to simply recap the action or compile winners and losers. You can find articles like that all over the internet, and I don’t have to write this newsletter with Google in mind. 

The idea I settled on was looking at one play each team made (or didn’t make) this weekend that defined their Wild Card Round. Again, I decided on this topic at the last minute, and for that reason, this newsletter is arriving in your inbox later than usual. I’m hoping you still enjoy it, though. 

Texans: C.J. Stroud hangs in the pocket just long enough to find Nico Collins

Time: 7:09 left in the 1st quarter

Early on, it looked like the Texans might have trouble again against the Browns’ highly rated defense. They punted on their first offensive drive and were in danger of going three-and-out on their second. Then on third-and-6, C.J. Stroud hung in the pocket, and his offensive line gave him just enough time to get the ball out — but not before he took a hard hit, which meant that his throw lacked Stroud’s usual precision. 

It didn’t matter, though, because Nico Collins was down there and came back to the ball to haul it in for the 38-yard gain. While the Texans had to settle for a field goal on the drive, Stroud’s toughness and connection with Collins were established early, as was the offensive line’s ability to not let Stroud get sacked. 

Stroud went on to throw a touchdown on three of the next four drives, and he also finished with an almost perfect passer rating (157.2) and a career-best 98.4 QBR. Collins came up with six catches for a game-high 96 yards and a score. With the blowout victory, Stroud became the youngest starting quarterback to ever win a postseason game. 

Browns: Joe Flacco tosses his second pick-six

Time: 4:06 left in the 3rd quarter

Eventually, the Browns’ turnover issues were going to catch up to them. As commendable as Joe Flacco had been as Cleveland’s out-of-nowhere starter, he had been picked off eight times in his five appearances during the regular season. Flacco’s 3.9 interception rate would have been the worst in the NFL this season if he had enough qualified starts (as it were, that dishonor belonged to Mac Jones in 2023). 

Flacco threw two interceptions in his first meeting with the Texans, but they weren’t very costly and he otherwise feasted on the secondary. This time around, Houston’s defense made adjustments — and made Flacco pay. Midway through the third quarter, Steven Nelson picked off Flacco and took the ball 82 yards for the score. After that, the Browns were trailing 31-14; they still had a chance to get back in the game, but they needed to get points in a hurry. 

So on the next drive, the Browns went for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 33-yard line. That itself wasn’t a bad decision, but Flacco’s throw, which Christian Harris read the entire way, was. And just like that, Flacco became the fifth QB in the Super Bowl era to toss two pick-sixes in the same playoff game — and the rout was on.

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shatters

Time: 9:25 left in the 3rd quarter

On Saturday night, Arrowhead Stadium hosted one of the coldest games in NFL history. The freezing temperature was one of the reasons that Patrick Mahomes lost a chunk of his helmet (not ideal for a helmet to do that!). But it wouldn’t have happened if Mahomes hadn’t tried to fight for extra yards near the goal line.

Although Mahomes didn’t get into the end zone on that play, it embodied his approach to playoff football: whatever it takes. Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs were physical all night, and they played with more urgency than they often had in the regular season because they know what kind of effort is needed to win in the postseason.  

At the time, the Chiefs still had just a 16-7 lead and knew they couldn’t let up. KC ended up adding a field goal after Mahomes’ run and put the game away for good soon after with a seven-minute touchdown drive.

Dolphins: Tyreek Hill gets jammed to Cancun

Time: 2:00 left in the 2nd quarter

Speaking of the Chiefs getting physical, they were not going to let Tyreek Hill beat them again after he broke free for a 53-yard touchdown at the start of the second quarter. Right before halftime, the Dolphins trailed 13-7 and faced a critical third down. Knowing that Tua Tagovailoa would most likely try to target Hill, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed “jammed” his former teammate into the turf and made sure he couldn’t get open. 

Tua was then sacked for a 7-yard loss and the Dolphins were forced to punt, which feels like the most apt representation for how this offense disappears against top competition. The Chiefs then tacked on a field goal before halftime to make it a two-score game, and Miami never scored (and hardly threatened to) again. Hill finished the night with only five catches for 62 yards, almost all of which came on that long touchdown.  

Packers: Jordan Love makes his most improbable completion 

Time: 3:23 left in the 2nd quarter

The Packers pounced on the Cowboys right away, which likely sank the hearts of Dallas fans who have grown accustomed to, and weary of, quick playoff exits. Still, I wouldn’t blame you if you thought Green Bay’s hot start was a bit of a fluke. The Pack scored on their first drive with the help of a couple penalties. Their second touchdown came after Jaire Alexander snatched a slant pass meant for Brandin Cooks deep in Dallas territory. 

Near the end of the first half, though, Jordan Love left no doubt about what kind of rhythm he was in on Sunday. On third-and-7, Love backpedaled ever so slightly and slung the ball to Dontayvion Wicks for a 20-yard touchdown to extend the Packers’ lead to 20-0. NFL Next Gen Stats calculated the throw as having a 30.8 percent completion probability, making it Love’s most improbable completion of the day.

Love, like Stroud, had a historically good playoff debut and was close to having a perfect passer rating. In fact, Love and Stroud’s stat lines were nearly identical. However, Love was the only quarterback the entire weekend to win on the road.

Cowboys: Luke Musgrave is the most wide open anyone has ever been

Time: 1:27 left in the 3rd quarter

It was kinda difficult to only pick one play to define the Cowboys’ latest playoff meltdown. I was tempted to choose Dak Prescott’s pick-six, which came when he was trying to force the ball to CeeDee Lamb in the first half when the two were strangely not on the same page at all. But I also feel like Prescott gets more blame than he probably deserves (though he deserves some) for Dallas’ shortcomings. 

And, as Bill Barnwell noted, the defense was the bigger issue on Sunday. I’m not surprised that Aaron Jones had a huge performance; he always does when he faces the Cowboys, whose run defense was their Achilles’ heel this season. Yet the entire defense fell flat on their faces against the Packers, perhaps no better symbolized than rookie tight end Luke Musgrave scoring the touchdown that truly sealed Dallas’ fate. 

Near the end of the third quarter, the Cowboys were still alive despite being badly outplayed and outcoached. Prescott had led three straight scoring drives to cut their deficit down to 34-16. If the defense could get a stop, then who knows what might have happened. 

Spoiler: The defense did not get a stop. On a day when Dan Quinn failed to make any tweaks to his game plan, Musgrave had 17.2 yards of separation — sixth-most on a TD since 2016 and most this season — after safety-turned-linebacker Markquese Bell and Donovan Wilson followed Love and left Musgrave on his own private island. At the same time, Micah Parsons tried to get pressure on Love but was too late and couldn’t take him down. Love was not sacked one time. 

Lions: Dan Campbell trusts Jared Goff to win the game

Time: 2:00 left in the 4th quarter

The best (by far) game of the weekend was the one that had about two dozen different storylines attached to it. The Lions were hosting their first playoff matchup in 30 years and seeking their first playoff win in 32 years, and they needed to beat their former quarterback, who never earned a postseason victory with Detroit and then immediately won a Super Bowl when he was traded to LA. 

There was also Detroit’s current quarterback, Jared Goff, who was honest (but not bitter) about how he felt discarded by the Rams. At the time of the trade, Goff was supposed to be a bridge quarterback for the rebuilding Lions, but he’s revived his career in Detroit, which seems kinda like a metaphor for the team and the city itself. 

Dan Campbell understood the Lions fanbase practically on a molecular level, and similarly, he knew that Goff was living out his own redemption story. For most of the night, Goff and Matthew Stafford went toe-to-toe, both frequently connecting with their favorite target and avoiding mistakes. Then, with the Lions holding a narrow one-point lead, they had the chance to ice the game around the two-minute warning. On second-and-9, Campbell put the ball in Goff’s hands and let him throw. He hit Amon-Ra St. Brown on a 10-yard curl, and from there, the Lions were able to run out the clock for the long-awaited playoff W. 

Afterward, Campbell awarded a game ball to Goff and told him, “you’re good enough for Detroit.”

Rams: Sean McVay punts to lose

Time: 4:15 left in the 4th quarter

Sean McVay has built his coaching career on thinking outside the box. That helped him become the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl two years ago, and it also helped him lead an overlooked Rams team into the playoffs this year. 

Yet when the time came to make a crucial decision, McVay turned weirdly conservative. The Rams had almost picked up the first down with Stafford targeting Puka Nacua for the 10th time, but the refs declined to flag the Lions for a possible defensive hold or pass interference (not that Rams fans should be complaining about a no-call PI). Rather than try again on fourth down, McVay elected to punt with four minutes and only one timeout remaining, meaning LA was not guaranteed to get the ball back. 

Well, the Rams did not get the ball back and soon after, McVay admitted he “regretted” his decision.

Bills: Josh Allen channels Beast Mode

Time: 7:01 left in the 2nd quarter

Josh Allen took a page from Marshawn Lynch’s playbook, 13 years after the former Bills running back scored his signature “Beast Quake” touchdown in the playoffs. The circumstances weren’t the same: Lynch’s run sealed the win for the Seahawks late in the game, while Allen’s 52-yard touchdown put the Bills up 21-0 on the Steelers in the first half. However, the sheer power and fierce determination behind the TD run were similar in nature. Allen may be a quarterback, but no, he was not going to slide in that situation.

Allen’s highlight play also established that his “good” version — and not the one who committed 22 turnovers in the regular season — had shown up in the Wild Card Round. On a bitterly cold day in Buffalo when the “toughest” team would win, Allen made it clear that no one on the field was tougher than he was.

Steelers: The Pittsburgh defense forgets how to tackle the guy with the ball

Time: 6:27 left in the 4th quarter

Even though the Bills had led most of Monday afternoon, the Steelers hung around and made it a one-score game early in the fourth quarter when Mason Rudolph hooked up with Calvin Austin III for a touchdown pass. The defense just needed to force a punt on the Bills’ next possession. 

Alas, Pittsburgh’s defense sorely missed T.J. Watt all game, perhaps none more so than on that drive. Allen’s playmaking, coupled with a couple of flags on Myles Jack (who was activated from the practice squad), pushed the Bills into Steelers territory. Then on second-and-9, Allen dumped it off to Khalil Shakir for what should have been a gain of a few yards. Instead, Minkah Fitzpatrick (who had just returned from injury) didn’t wrap Shakir up. The second-year receiver then sprinted for the end zone, eluding several more tackle attempts along the way. 

One Bills receiver was tackled on the play, however: Jack took down Stefon Diggs, for some reason, right before Shakir scored.

Buccaneers: The defense stops the Tush Push

Time: 3:06 left in the 2nd quarter

I don’t want to take away anything from Baker Mayfield, who played a fantastic game (337 passing yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) even while dealing with rib and ankle injuries. Then again, going up against Philly’s defense wasn’t much of a challenge for any quarterback lately. 

That said, I want to give special attention to Tampa’s defense, which seems appropriate since it was Todd Bowles’ first playoff win as a head coach. Bowles, unlike some of the losing coaches this past weekend, actually made adjustments. He was determined not to let the run beat them this time, like what happened in Week 3 when the Bucs lost in Philadelphia. 

Never was that more apparent than on the Eagles’ two-point try. Tampa had been in control most of the first half, but Jalen Hurts led Philly into the end zone toward the end of the second quarter to make it a one-score game. A penalty on the Bucs on the extra point attempt put the ball at the 1-yard line, and at that point, Nick Sirianni decided to go for the two-point conversion. Enter the near-unstoppable “Tush Push,” which had a 92.5 percent success rate for the Eagles this season. 

Well, the Bucs stopped it (with a little help from an uncalled facemask), and Philly never sniffed the end zone again. In fact, the Bucs’ defense held strong on short-yardage situations all game. The Eagles entered the playoffs with the NFL’s No. 1 offense on third- and fourth-and-short (82.1 percent conversion). They ended up 0-for-11 on third and fourth downs against Tampa.

What an unfortunate way for Jason Kelce to end his Hall of Fame-worthy career. 

Eagles: The secondary gets roasted by David Moore (and Joe Buck)

Time: 5:47 left in the 1st quarter

As it had for most of the season, especially in the past six weeks, Philly’s defense was a disaster on Monday night. That was most evident on Tampa’s first touchdown, which came halfway through the first quarter (and ended up being the game-deciding score). 

No one in the secondary appeared to be in the right spot when journeyman receiver David Moore was open for a first-down pass from Mayfield. With his nearest defender on the turf, Moore — who had five catches for 94 yards in the regular season — then raced down the field while four or five more Eagles defenders didn’t even come close to taking him down. Monday Night Football announcers Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were disgusted were the lack of effort, which really summed up the Eagles’ total collapse to this season.

I thought the Eagles had enough left in the tank to at least be able to beat the Bucs (and no one else) in the playoffs, but I was wrong. Expect major changes in Philadelphia this offseason after their Super Bowl-contending team turned in arguably the ugliest loss of Super Wild Card Weekend — and that’s saying something.