Who ya got? Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert
Breaking down the two-man race for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Plus, a midseason awards checkin, Week 9 picks, and an investigation of a very 90s album.
Who will be 2020’s offensive rookie of the year?
The 2020 draft dropped a banner crop of playmakers into the NFL. Only one can be named this inextinguishable tire fire of a season’s top rookie.
Last year, Kyler Murray was dubbed the league’s top offensive newcomer despite some underwhelming numbers and a legitimate challenge from Raider running back Josh Jacobs. This winter, it will almost certainly be another quarterback who earns that honor, no matter how strongly Justin Jefferson or Chase Claypool finish the year. The only question is … who?
Right now, two candidates stand above the fray.
1. Joe Burrow, Bengals
Burrow has been tasked with throwing the hell out of the ball for a Cincinnati team that spends most of its time trailing. That’s been just fine with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, who went from attempting 35 passes per game at LSU last year to a league-high 41.25 this fall.
As a result, Burrow has averaged 284 passing yards per game — the most of any rookie full-time starter this millennium. He’s been efficient along the way, too. His 91.4 passer rating is nearly 15 points higher than first-year Andrew Luck and seven points higher than a debuting Lamar Jackson. He’s posted a 11:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio following a rocky Week 1 showing against the Chargers — a game in which he’d positioned the Bengals for overtime before being derailed by a missed 31-yard field goal attempt.
His guidance has led Cincinnati to as many wins as it had all of last season, including Week 8’s upset over the then 5-1 Titans. He’s thrown for eight-plus yards per attempt in three of his first eight games, projecting the kind of high-yield passing that looms in his future. He’s added three rushing touchdowns and more than five yards per scramble to showcase his drive finishing/extending talent as well.
Most importantly, he’s been this good despite playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Football Outsiders rates the Bengals as the second-worst pass blocking unit in the NFL through eight games, and it’s difficult to see how that group can improve over the latter half of the year. Burrow was gifted a solid group of pass catchers, but this start has come despite a season-ending injury to top tight end C.J. Uzomah and a significant drop-off from WR1 A.J. Green (who is currently boasting career lows in catch rate, yards per reception, and yards per target by a WIDE margin). Burrow is the brightest spot in a typically dire Cincinnati season, and for that he’s a popular frontrunner for OROY honors. He’s still got work to do, however, thanks to …
2. Justin Herbert, Chargers
Herbert has been a perfect Chargers quarterback. He’s a prolific passer with the ability to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. He casts off an air of invincibility when running, opting to truck linebackers for a few extra yards. And, most importantly, he’s a wunderkind when it comes to losing heartbreaking games.
Chargers as f***.
Like Burrow, Herbert has provided some much-needed optimism for a perpetually cursed franchise coming off the loss of a long-tenured and possibly beloved quarterback. Here’s what Philip Rivers put together last season before decamping for Indianapolis:
66% completion rate, 288 yards/game, 3.9% TD rate, 3.3% INT rate, 7.1 adjusted yards/attempt, 88.5 passer rating
Here’s where Herbert stands after six starts.
67.3% comp, 303 yards/game, 6.6% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate, 8.3 aY/A, 104.5 passer rating
Los Angeles turned the reins over to the third quarterback drafted this spring and has been better off as a result. Herbert’s downfield accuracy has been outstanding early in his career, as he’s connected on 33 of his 69 pass attempts of 10+ yards. He’s been difficult for opponents to figure out since he doles out targets across the entirety of the Chargers’ depth chart. These are the guys who have caught touchdown passes from Herbert in his six games as a pro:
Keenan Allen: 3
Jalen Guyton (!): 3
Mike Williams: 2
Donald Parham (!!): 2
Tyron Johnson: 1
Hunter Henry: 1
Virgil Green: 1
GABE NABERS, A REAL NFL FULLBACK AND NOT A LESSER MUPPET (!!!): 1
He’s got a long ways to go to prove this is sustainable, and his 1-5 record will work against him if Burrow can exceed expectations and get the Bengals to four wins. Still, Herbert looks like the real deal as long as he can fend off defenses that learn his tendencies as he builds his NFL resume. — CD
A quick rundown of the other major midseason awards
MVP: Russell Wilson, Seahawks
See our MVP post for the full argument, though if you’ve seen Wilson play at all this year, it should be obvious he’s the favorite.
Offensive Player of the Year: Alvin Kamara, Saints
The Saints are in good position to potentially win the NFC South for the fourth year in a row, and it wouldn’t be possible without Kamara’s efforts. The versatile weapon is both the Saints’ leading receiver and rusher, averaging a league-high 147.3 yards per game. While Michael Thomas has missed most of the season so far due to injury and Emmanuel Sanders landed on the COVID-19 list for a couple weeks, it’s been Kamara who’s acted as Drew Brees’ safety blanket. Whenever the Saints have needed a clutch play — and they’ve needed a lot recently in four straight close wins — Kamara has come through. Perhaps that’s why Bucs coach Bruce Arians called Kamara “scarier” than Marshall Faulk.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Steelers
For now, I’ll give Watt the edge over Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald because Watt has been the best player on the best team, lining up for if not the best defense, then certainly the fiercest. Watt has the highest disruption rate in the NFL and leads the league in tackles for loss and QB hits. He also has 6.5 sacks, three passes defended, and an interception, proving the edge defender can deliver in a number of ways for an old-school Steel Curtain defense.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Antoine Winfield Jr., Bucs
NFL fans who didn’t follow the Minnesota Golden Gophers last year are finding out that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree with Winfield Jr. Just like his father, Winfield Jr. is a hard-hitting playmaker in a relatively small package. The rookie safety has 44 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception for a rising Tampa defense. He also made the play of the game in Week 8 when he successfully defended a two-point attempt, securing the Bucs’ win over the Giants. Right now, Winfield has to be the DROY frontrunner, but don’t count out Chase Young if he stays healthy. The Washington pass rusher has totaled 2.5 sacks, more than any other rookie — and that’s in just six games.
Coach of the Year:Mike Tomlin, Steelers
This season, Tomlin already became the winningest Black coach in NFL history; now it looks like he’s headed for his first AP Coach of the Year award too. The Steelers are the only undefeated team remaining, with three straight impressive wins (Browns, Titans, Ravens), and will return to the playoffs after barely missing out the past two years. And for once, they’ve managed to stay drama-free (so far)! Credit to Tomlin for that. — SH
Packers vs. 49ers, in five words or fewer
Week 9 picks
NFL rosters, like the rest of the country, are being hit hard by coronavirus cases lately. On Thursday night, the 49ers and Packers were each missing key players who were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, an unfortunate trend that one-third of the league is dealing with this week. The big names added include Matthew Stafford, Chris Jones, and Trent Brown, who is on the list for the second time in a few weeks (and is one of the reasons the Raiders are racking up fines).
But the NFL marches on, as it always does. As such, so do our game picks, even though we’re not always certain who will be available by the time Sunday arrives.
Maybe that’s why there weren’t many unanimous decisions with the Week 9 slate:
RVB even thinks the Jets will win a game!
The slam-dunk pick this week was Steelers-Cowboys. Dallas is going to start its fourth quarterback of the season when it throws either Garrett Gilbert or Connor Rush to the wolves (aka Pittsburgh’s defense). Once Sunday evening rolls around, the Steelers should be 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.
That will no doubt please Alex Kirshner, our Week 9 guest picker. Alex is a big, thankfully not obnoxious Steelers fan, as well as a former coworker of ours. His busy post-SB Nation ventures include:
Split Zone Duo, a college football podcast he hosts with Richard Johnson
Moon Crew, a free college football newsletter that’s definitely worth your time
OddsCheckerUS, where he makes weekly NFL picks
The Sinful Seven, a CFB-themed sci-fi Western ebook that you can buy for 99 cents (or more!) this month and next
his Twitter account, where he will try to troll you about your favorite team (but don’t take it too seriously; he’s much too nice of a person to really mean most of it)
Alex is already 1-0 for the week, just like Christian and me. Week 9’s best record could come down to the one game that divided us right down the middle: Falcons-Broncos. Well, as long as it doesn’t end in a tie, which really wouldn’t surprise us either. — SH
The “division rival split” games: Giants vs. Washington AND Saints vs. Bucs
Whenever two division rivals are evenly matched, I’m inclined to pick them to split their season series. We saw it happen numerous times last year: Seahawks-49ers, Falcons-Bucs, Eagles-Cowboys, Titans-Texans-Colts, etc. Of course, it doesn’t always play out like that, though it did just one week ago when the Falcons won their rematch with the Panthers.
I don’t regret not taking the Falcons, because as I said then, it’s not worth putting any emotional energy in hoping they won’t blow a lead. This week, however, I feel better about the Bucs’ and Washington’s chances to avenge earlier losses. Just three weeks ago, Washington was a two-point conversion shy of beating the Giants. Now, they’re all rested up after a bye, while the Giants are coming off a short week.
The Saints are riding a four-game winning streak, but they had to eke out each one (average margin of victory: 3.75 points). Even though the Bucs barely managed to hold on against the Giants on Monday night, they’re still one of the hottest teams in the league and will, grossly, welcome Antonio Brown to the lineup Sunday night against an inconsistent New Orleans secondary. No matter what, the NFC South should come down to these two teams. The Saints beat the Bucs in Week 1, but the Bucs can make themselves the division’s frontrunner with a win in round two. — SH
The “I’ve had enough” game: Raiders vs. Chargers
I, a non-Chargers fan, get both infuriated and a little depressed whenever they collapse like our economy circa 2008 (I know, too soon). So for the same reason I had to stop picking the Falcons to win games, I must renounce any prediction allegiance to the Chargers. I simply can’t take it anymore. — SH
The “Only one of these things looks right” game: Patriots vs. Jets
What on Earth compels someone to pick the Jets? The Jets are terrible, maybe even a bigger pile of flaming garbage than we’re used to seeing from New Jersey’s dirtiest Superfund project, thanks to Adam Gase who will somehow get at least two more years in the job to continue pissing off his own players and blaming them for his own incompetence. But we’re not used to seeing the Patriots playing like, well, like the Jets. And let me tell ya, I love to see it. The main thing working in favor of the Jets this week is that it’s damn near impossible to go 0-16 in the NFL. It might be harder than going 16-0. This is as close to even as these two teams have ever been and probably ever will be. I think the Jets, even without Gase’s incompetence to drag them down, will get up for this game. — RVB
Is Cake’s Fashion Nugget a good album? An investigation.
Somewhere around 1 a.m. Wednesday morning, approximately 3.5 imperial stouts into my election evening, a thought finally came into my brain that wasn’t softly muttered swear words birthed into an indifferent world (don’t worry, I feel better now). It was, in fact, the Cake song Daria.
I have no idea why it popped into my head, but listening to it made me feel better. And so I threw the whole album from which it came onto Twitter and was immediately countered with an important question. Is Fashion Nugget actually good?
In my 30+ years on this planet, I’d never stopped to consider this. Sure, I love Cake. They’re a mainstay in my Pandora and Spotify playlists. But the band exploded when I was in junior high, and I have not-entirely-fond memories of a friend blasting Stickshifts and Safetybelts while pressuring me to call a girl who had absolutely no interest in me (this would become a trend). Much like my love of Eddie Money and Saving Silverman, it’s entirely possible this infatuation was a product of my own overbearing sense of nostalgia rather than any independent merit. I think Fashion Nugget is great. Should anyone else?
In order to get as much of an impartial view on this as possible, I attempted to clear my musical palate by listening to Jermaine Dupri’s Welcome to Atlanta 20 straight times. This was a failure — that’s entirely too much Jermaine Dupri — but I feel like it did the trick nonetheless. Refreshed, I dug back into Fashion Nugget in hopes of figuring out whether it was in fact the alt rock masterpiece I was convinced it was, or merely a curiosity of the 90s that couldn’t have existed any other time.
I was originally going to run down every track on the album, but there are 14 of them and these newsletters have a word limit. Instead, let’s talk about the notable tracks, starting with ...
1. Frank Sinatra
This song is your gateway to Cake. You may only be here because you heard The Distance on your local alternative rock station, but you’re gonna get the full Cake experience before you can get to the lead single at track #2.
Frank Sinatra is everything the band does well and some of the things they don’t, yet try enthusiastically enough that it becomes endearing. That includes John McCrea’s low-tone, half-spoken singing. A driving drumbeat. Esoteric lyrics. Trumpet riffs that sound like they’re slipping down the drain of an unstopped bathtub.
This is the perfect introduction to what comes next. It’s weird and wonderful and still sounds new and unique 24 years later. And it was good enough to make it onto episodes of Daria AND The Sopranos.
It’s also the ideal bridge to …
2. The Distance
We all know what it is. It’s been everywhere and is the song you’re most likely to associate with Cake. It’s overplayed, certainly, but it’s overplayed for a reason. It’s iconic.
3. Friend is a Four Letter Word
A slow ballad that squanders the energy of the opening two tracks. It’s fine on its own, I guess, but it sticks out in a bad way here. It takes all the Cake indulgences of the first two songs and drives them into the ground with a droning beat. It’s a lot to drop seven minutes into the album.
5. Daria
Like I mentioned before, it’s strangely comforting with a chorus that transforms into a chain of thought exercise before snapping back into place. It does a lot of heavy lifting to lighten the mood and get the album back on track. I appreciate it.
7. I Will Survive
A love-it or hate-it disco cover. No, I don’t know why it’s over five minutes long. No, I don’t know why McCrea is a parking enforcement officer in the music video.
It’s a lot. But Cake is a lot. Whether or not you’re into this is probably gonna decide whether or not you like the album. I get it.
8. Stickshifts and Safetybelts
An up-tempo country song about snuggling in the front seat of a Chevrolet, smack dab in the middle of the album and immediately following a Gloria Gaynor cover. That’s ambition. It’s catchy as hell, too.
10. It’s Coming Down
Another prototypical Cake song. The drums and trumpet kick in immediately, followed by a guitar that somehow sounds sarcastic. The middle gives way to a chorus that’s much more accessible than bridges that, ironically, act like walls. Someone says “hey!” and “hyah!” in the background. It feels like the band is parodying itself, 10 tracks into their breakthrough album.
I … kinda dig it?
13. Italian Leather Sofa
It’s tough to make a song that slaps when its chorus hinges on the pronunciation of “healthy breasts” and “It-AL-ian leather so-FAH,” but it’s a memorable song about a healthy relationship between shitty people, which is … unique, at least. Weirdly enough, it sounds a lot better sped up as the instrumental theme song for Mission Hill. That was a great cartoon!
The verdict: There are dull moments, and being able to listen to the full 48:36 may come down to your tolerance of I Will Survive, but ultimately Fashion Nugget is trippy and weird and unique enough that it holds up. There’s a reason it winds up on so many of my online playlists, and I don’t think it’s just nostalgia. Cake is an underappreciated band pigeonholed by its own merits — ever-present driving snare drums, a lead singer that sounds like music school Kyle Kinane, a trumpet ambush halfway through seemingly *every* song — but that doesn’t mean they aren’t great at what they do.
Fashion Nugget is, in fact, good. — CD