Make the NFL trade deadline great again
The NFL trade deadline might not be too exciting this year because of the pandemic, but there are still a few teams that desperately need to be buying and selling. Also, TNF picks!
Still desperate for signs of normalcy in this garbage year of lord, 2020? Well, the NFL trade deadline is once again looking like it will be nothing but a huge disappointment. Sure, a few bit players past their primes are going to get shuffled off to a new team looking to add to its depth chart for a postseason run, but if you’re holding out for marquee names on the move, you’re best bet for gratification is trying to rip off your brother-in-law in your fantasy league.
It wasn’t always this way. In fact, for a few years the NFL trade deadline was actually getting kind of exciting. Waaaaay back in 2017, the Eagles got a piece of their Super Bowl puzzle in nabbing Jay Ajayi from the Dolphins. The Seahawks got an actually good offensive lineman, Duane Brown. Hell, a future franchise quarterback even got moved that year when the Patriots sent Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers (wonder if they regret that now?). Deadline day in 2018 saw more big names get swapped, including Dante Fowler, Eli Apple, and Amari Cooper. Last year saw a smattering of premium cornerbacks switching teams, moves mostly orchestrated so the Rams could land Jalen Ramsey.
This year, despite the rumors, we’re all on pins and needles waiting for the Bengals to deal… Carlos Dunlap. Not that the 11-year veteran is a bad player or anything, it’s just not the kind of move that’s going to tear us away from another 30 minutes of doomscrolling.
So what happened? Simple, it’s the salary cap, stupid. The main reason the deadline got so busy in recent years is because the league’s salary cap was skyrocketing its way toward $200 million. When the cap goes up by $10 million or more every year, teams have a lot more flexibility to eat the dead money from players they don’t need anymore. Lost revenues because of the global pandemic are going to force the league to roll back the cap—which stayed flat this year—over the next three years. It could be as low as $175 million next year; whereas, we might be talking about a $210 million cap in 2021 if the coronavirus never happened, or if, you know, if it had gone away back in March when we were told it was just going to disappear.
A shrinking cap doesn’t give teams the space to make moves, like say a rebuilding Falcons team granting Julio Jones or Matt Ryan their sweet release from football purgatory, because they can’t afford tens of millions in dead cap money next year.
The NFL trade deadline is less than a week away—Tuesday, Nov. 3, another day that happens to be kind of a big deal. It might not be a total letdown. Some of the moves teams will make to boost their depth charts could end up paying big dividends in January. But if you’re anxious to get back to the kind of trade deadline where you had to spend the day refreshing your browser, it’s gonna be awhile until we ‘round that corner. —RVB
Who should be buying and selling before the NFL’s trade deadline?
The 2020 NFL trade deadline was always going to be more exciting than the low-energy cutoff dates of years passed. A 14-team playoff field means more contenders and thus more teams looking for the missing piece to spark a championship run. An ever-rising appreciation of draft capital and the rebuilding success of teams like the Rams, Eagles, and Cardinals is extra emphasis for franchises that sit under .500 to delay their hopes until next year.
And then a global pandemic happened. Pro Bowlers and Super Bowl heroes opted out of the season before it even began. A shortened preseason without any exhibition games helped create a wave of injuries that sapped more star power from the gridiron. Positive COVID-19 tests and the quarantines that come with them have shuffled lineups even further.
As a result, teams that once felt like surefire playoff bets are trending toward a spot at the top of the 2021 NFL Draft. Others that came into the season with limited expectations could wind up a hot streak away from a conference title game.
We already know the teams atop their divisions through Week 7 — yes, even the NFC East — are unlikely to trade away talent. We also know that the league’s one- and zero-win teams won’t ship off draft picks to acquire veteran help unless Dave Gettleman mistakes his Ambien for his Ibuprofen again and finds a Leonard Williams-type player to add to a hopeless roster.
What about the teams in the middle? Let’s take a closer look and see what their immediate future, at least in terms of roster management, should hold.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-2
Buyers or sellers?: Buyers.
It’s not especially noteworthy that a 5-2 team would be adding talent rather than selling it off, but it is when it’s the Browns. Cleveland hasn’t been 5-2 at all since being rebooted in 1999. The franchise has only won more than five games seven times since 1995.
The Browns need to seize any source of optimism and grasp it like Chris Farley making a sale in Tommy Boy. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has done a good job of keeping Baker Mayfield from falling into a rut, but it’s clear he needs help after thrashing bad teams (a 125.4 passer rating vs. opponents with losing records) and struggling mightily against good ones (a 64.8 rating vs. opponents with winning records). Replacing Odell Beckham Jr., lost for the season due to an ACL tear, would help. Punching up a defense that has given up 20+ points every week in 2020 — and 38 points to both the Steelers and Ravens in blowout losses — is an even bigger priority.
What do they need?: One of the Browns’ biggest deficiencies has been a steady veteran presence capable of pushing its young stars together to be more than just potential. Olivier Vernon could have been that guy, but he was a disappointment in 2019 and has been nearly anonymous in 2020 with only five pressures in 111 pass rushes so far. A deal for Washington edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan could provide the impact Cleveland had been hoping to get from Vernon.
The team addressed its issues up front in order to protect Mayfield in the offseason, and Nick Chubb’s return from injury will take even more pressure off his shoulders. Still, the Browns need playmakers with OBJ out, and veteran receivers like Alshon Jeffery or Golden Tate could be low-cost additions to help prop an embattled quarterback up.
New England Patriots
Record: 2-4
Buyers or sellers?: Sellers.
In a similar vein, it’s not news when a 2-4 team begins trading away veterans, but it is when it’s the winningest team of the millennium. The Patriots haven’t started a season this poorly since Bill Belichick’s first year on the job back in 2000, a 5-11 crapshoot in which Drew Bledsoe composed a 17:13 TD:INT ratio and his running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
This year’s group isn’t quite as bad, but it certainly isn’t good. The Patriots boast the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense after managing only 28 total points in the three games since Cam Newton’s positive coronavirus test. They rank dead last in touchdown passes (three) and interceptions thrown (11). A formerly great defense has been middling thanks to rough offensive play, the free agent departures of players like Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins, and the preseason opt-outs of Donta Hightower and Patrick Chung.
Football Outsiders pegs their postseason chances at a mere 15.9 percent, down from 60.2 after Week 3. If the Patriots can’t beat the Bills in Week 8, their AFC East title streak — 11 years and counting — will almost certainly be snapped. With Newton looking nothing like his early-season self and losses mounting in a way we haven’t seen in nearly two decades, it may be time to make some changes.
Who can they trade?: Joe Thuney is one of the best interior linemen in the league. While he left last week’s game with an ankle sprain, it appears unlikely to cost him much field time. New England franchise tagged him before the season and has been unable to reach a contract extension with its homegrown bulldozer in the months since. Rather than allow him to leave in free agency for nothing but a 2022 compensatory pick, Belichick may opt to cash him in for a 2021 third-rounder in hopes this season’s downturn is only temporary.
Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, whose contract would pay him just $7.5 million in 2021 and is headed toward a pricy extension, has reportedly come up in trade talks as well.
Las Vegas Raiders
Record: 3-3
Buyers or sellers?: Buyers.
Let’s jump to the team New England beat in that Week 3 matchup. The Raiders have played through a banger of an early schedule, squaring off with two of the NFC’s top teams (the Saints and Buccaneers), the defending NFL champions (Kansas City), and the AFC East’s likely champion (Buffalo). Despite this, they’re 3-3 and hanging on at the periphery of the playoff race thanks to a revival from quarterback Derek Carr and a patchwork defense that’s punched above its weight class in some big games (see Week 5’s 40-32 win over the Chiefs).
The Raiders haven’t been to the postseason since 2016, a game in which they had to start Connor Cook in place of an injured Carr. They haven’t played a meaningful playoff game since losing Super Bowl XXXVII. Kicking off a new era of black and silver football in their new desert home is a priority. It would help validate the 10-year, $100 million deal the club handed Jon Gruden to return to the sideline. Las Vegas has been a buyer after bottoming out in 2018, and that won’t change this fall.
What do they need?: The Raiders have needed high-impact secondary help since Charles Woodson left town … the second time. Vegas has poured first- and second-round picks into prospects like Karl Joseph, Obi Melifonwu, Gareon Conley, Jonathan Abram, Trayvon Mullen, and Damon Arnette since 2015 and gotten little to show for these efforts. Football Outsiders pegs its pass defense as fourth-worst in the league which, at the very least, is better than its 31st-ranked unit from a season ago or the 32nd-rated group from 2018.
Adding veterans hasn’t helped much either, but adding a former DPOY two-plus years after trading Khalil Mack could be a major boon. Gilmore could be just the presence needed to deter the AFC’s high-powered passing attacks and set the tone for a team loaded with young, impressionable talent in the secondary.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 2-5
Buyers or sellers?: Sellers.
The Cowboys are only a half game out of first place in the NFC East and could possibly host a playoff game this winter despite what will almost certainly be a losing record. It doesn’t matter.
Dallas is irreparably broken after losing Dak Prescott to an ankle injury and may stay that way for the foreseeable future. A cap sheet clogged with big, uncuttable salaries means the only way out of this hole is through young, affordable talent. Jerry Jones should be listening to offers on all of his players in order to amass a Dolphins-esque war chest for the 2021 and 2022 drafts.
What can they sell?: Veteran defensive lineman Everson Griffen is already on the move, and though the stink of the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense could’ve limited what Dallas received in return for him, at least it got something:
DeMarcus Lawrence, who signed a $105 million extension in 2019, could be an even bigger target for needy teams with plenty of spending cash. He’s having an unimpressive year — he’s got half the quarterback hurries Griffen does — and is due $21 million next year, but could be a difference maker for a team looking for a missing piece in the pass rush. Jones doesn’t want to lose a playmaker like his star pass rusher, but in the face of salary cap hell it may be his only path forward.
Detroit Lions
Record: 3-3
Buyers or sellers?: Buyers.
Detroit would probably be selling veteran pieces in a normal year, but with head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn both on the hot seat they’re much more likely to add talent than jettison it. This is bad news for teams hopeful of freeing Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones from Michigan, but great news for GMs interested in picking up solid draft assets after Patricia stumbles to his inevitable 6-10 finish.
The Lions’ currently have a 23.3 percent shot at making the NFC’s seven-team playoff field. That isn’t high, but it shows the opportunity they have with the Vikings imploding and the Bears — a team that trailed Detroit 23-6 in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 matchup — facing their standard instability at quarterback. Quinn and Patricia could convince themselves they’re only one or two pieces away from a second-place finish in the North, a wild card spot, and another year at the helm of a perpetually cursed franchise. Griffen was a solid start, but the Lions may not be done adding pieces yet.
What do they need?: There’s no one category that specifically needs to be addressed in Detroit; the team’s mostly mediocre everywhere. A middling pass rush needed help up front, and a veteran defensive end like Griffen not only adds extra pressure — pressure with which the Lions are intimately familiar — but can allow Trey Flowers to rotate through positions and attack opposing quarterbacks from several different angles like he did at his best in New England. Otherwise, the secondary has exceeded expectations thus far, but could use extra bodies as well. Patricia loves adding former Patriots to his fold; maybe that’s the logical next step in his quest to disappoint the state of Michigan.
San Francisco 49ers
Record: 4-3
Buyers or sellers?: Buyers.
What are these 49ers? Are they the team that toppled the Rams in primetime despite missing several key players, or are they the Super Bowl hangover lightweights who lost to the Eagles and then got boat raced by the rebuilding Dolphins a week later?
Two straight wins has them trending toward the former. Though they play in the NFL’s toughest division, there’s still hope of a second straight playoff appearance. Yes, the loss to Miami is troubling, but the 49ers were a fourth-down conversion away from beating the Cardinals in Week 1 and a Jimmy Garoppolo injury away from handling their business against Philadelphia. The core of a Super Bowl team remains in Santa Clara, and though injuries have ravaged its lineup — Nick Bosa is out for the season, Richard Sherman and Dee Ford are both on injured reserve, and just about every skill player you can name has missed at least one game so far this year — a return to even 90 percent full strength should be enough to compete for a wild card spot.
What do they need?: Another half-season rental in the vein of Emmanuel Sanders would work nicely. Sanders revived his career after arriving on the West Coast, adding the extra punch the Niners’ offense needed to win a conference title. That extra aerial firepower has been missing in 2020, especially with Deebo Samuel on and off the injury report, Kendrick Bourne struggling to turn extra snaps into big plays in his fourth season, and Mohamed Sanu looking very much like the player the receiver-needy Patriots cut this preseason.
Running back help wouldn’t hurt either, as injuries to Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson have left Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty as the only healthy bodies at the position. A replacement for Bosa could also prop up a pass rush that ranked third in the NFL in sack rate in 2019, but 23rd this fall. — CD
Thursday Night Football picks
Thursday night might be the highlight of the NFL’s primetime lineup in Week 8. That’s not to say that Falcons vs. Panthers is a particularly enticing bout. It’s just that the other two primetime games include 75 percent of the NFC East, so a battle between the bottom two teams in the NFC South wins by default. And because the Falcons are involved, there’s a pretty good chance we’re in for a tragicomic ending.
It’s been only three weeks since the Panthers beat the Falcons in their first meeting, but we could be getting a different matchup this time around. The Falcons, while still cursed with their inherent Falcons-ness, have moved on from Dan Quinn. Julio Jones, who missed Week 5 against the Panthers with a hamstring injury, will play on Thursday against a young, banged-up secondary. Christian McCaffrey might be active too, after the Panthers designated him to return from IR.
This week, our guest picker is our old friend and coworker Adam Stites. Adam started working on the SB Nation newsdesk while in college and eventually became a part of the NFL team (RIP). Years ago, he adopted the Jaguars as his NFL team, but don’t feel too sorry for him. Adam grew up in Southern California and is also a Lakers and Dodgers fan (we’re just happy he has something to celebrate this year).
Perhaps his affinity for the Jaguars led Adam to side with another one-win team in Week 8’s debut game. And I understand the reasoning behind taking the Falcons. Maybe, after coming off their latest worst loss, they have extra motivation, a chance to prove to their doubters and themselves that they can finish games.
But I just can’t do it anymore. The last time I predicted victory for the Falcons was the game they ended up losing to the Panthers. After that, I said no more. I don’t want to have even the teensiest bit of investment in the Falcons winning. If they do win, I don’t really care. If they lose in horrendous choke job fashion after I picked them to win? Then I’ll get mad. I don’t need that in my life. — SH