And the MVP is ...
This week, which is a totally normal one, we're checking in on the most valuable player race. Oh, and Thursday Night Football picks!
Who is the MVP of this completely normal half season?
Hello! I hope everyone had a very good National Sandwich Day.
In my quest to distract myself from … sandwiches and the lingering sense of dread that comes with living in Wisconsin, I decided to take a look at this year’s MVP candidates. The 2020 season, turbulent as it has been, is just about at its halfway mark (pending any additional Week 18 or 19 games attached to COVID-19 postponements, which … yeah). Some hot starts have faded. Others persist. So who has been the league’s most valuable player after eight weeks?
The No. 1 choice is obvious, but Russell Wilson isn’t alone at the top.
1. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Wilson has been a perennial top guy since entering the league and wresting the Seahawks’ starting job away from Matt Flynn. Even so, the NFL’s all-or-nothing voting protocol left him without a single MVP vote in his first eight seasons as a pro. That will change in year nine.
Wilson has found the end zone on 26 of his 256 attempts this fall, good for a league-high 10.2 percent touchdown rate. After years of being efficient, he’s settling in as prolific in his age-32 season. His 307 passing yards per game would be a career best by more than 44 yards, but he’s not sacrificing accuracy for these big gains; his 71.5 percent completion rate is also a personal record. He’s turning the ball over slightly more than usual, but he’s also leading the NFC’s top team while recording a 4-1 record in one-possession games.
At the same time, he’s also running for 7.4 yards per carry. This is all absurd.
What’s spurred this leap from “great” to “elite?” Well, let’s just say his receivers, ah, completely rule ass. D.K. Metcalf remains a video game cheat code, a ridiculous blend of speed and size who can turn a 15-yard completion into a 60-yard touchdown with relative ease:
The Seahawks gain an average of 11.5 yards every time Wilson decides to throw the ball to the souped-up minivan he’s got masquerading as an NFL wideout, which trails only Chase Claypool and Julio Jones among players with at least 30 targets. Wilson also has a 135.1 rating when targeting veteran Tyler Lockett, despite the fact Lockett has dropped seven passes so far this season.
All this has made Seattle a Super Bowl contender — their NFC title odds trail only the Buccaneers at the moment — even with a defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed. Wilson has been great for a long time now, but 2020 looks like the year MVP voters finally have no choice but to write him in.
2. Josh Allen, Bills
Haha, no. Remember when he got off to a hot start and everyone posted their “Josh Allen apology cards” on Twitter? Here’s what he’s done the past four weeks.
Five total touchdowns (four passing, one rushing)
Five total turnovers (four interceptions, one fumble)
211 passing yards per game
A 79.2 passer rating
A 2-2 record with losses to the Titans/Chiefs (12-3 combined record) and wins over the Patriots/Jets (2-13)
He remains the most Josh Allen quarterback in the NFL.
2, but for real this time: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mahomes is still otherworldly in his third year as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. While he’s not quite the same high octane passer he was when he won 2018’s MVP award, he’s emerged as a more efficient QB for the defending NFL champions.
The $500 million man has a sterling 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and just one turnover through half the season. He’s shown restraint when it comes to forcing passes into bad situations downfield, instead shuffling through his route tree for shorter completions that a dynamic receiving corps can turn into big gains downfield. His average target has dropped from 9.1 yards in ‘18 to 7.7 this year, but his 12.2 yards per completion is still a top five mark among qualified starting quarterbacks.
None of that encapsulates the looming dread that comes with stopping him on third down, however. Mahomes remains a gifted scrambler who creates extra time by escaping the pocket and firing a back-foot rocket 50+ yards downfield with pinpoint accuracy:
Even if he can’t find an open target, the reigning Super Bowl MVP is still averaging 6.6 yards per scramble, per Pro Football Reference. That’s actually low for him (he’d averaged 9.3 YPS last season) but still a valuable indicator of how dangerous he’s been under duress. Lamar Jackson, for comparison, only clocks in at 6.9 YPS.
Mahomes is 8-4 in non-Week 17 games in which he’s thrown an interception. He’s 23-4 when he doesn’t. This year’s version of the still-growing quarterback is one who doesn’t turn the ball over. Expect big things from the Chiefs again.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Rodgers tops a handful of veteran quarterbacks for the last spot on this list — apologies to Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger and, huh, Derek Carr? — but his placement is tenuous. Like Allen, he’s cooled off following a 4-0 start. Though the bulk of Green Bay’s problems are on the defensive side of the ball, Rodgers’ recent lack of consistency thanks to a depleted corps of skill players is a concern.
Still, the man has a 20:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in a season where his top receivers/tight ends, by target, are:
Davante Adams (duh)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (an 11.8 percent drop rate)
Robert Tonyan (14 catches in two seasons before 2020)
and Allen Lazard (has missed four games due to injury)
Rodgers is 37 years old, but he has maintained the arm strength he flashed in his 20s. He remains the kind of player who can escape pressure, then flick a casual downfield bomb through a rapidly closing window.
That’s helped buoy an offense whose major additions this offseason were Rick Wagner (only three starts so far in 2020 due to injury), Devin Funchess (COVID opt-out), Jordan Love (third-string QB through eight weeks), and A.J. Dillon (49 snaps in seven games, currently on the COVID reserve list). The Packers should not be Football Outsiders’ second-ranked offense in a year where both Adams and Aaron Jones have missed extended time due to injury, but Rodgers has them there anyway.
Rodgers ranks second in the league in QBR, third in passer rating, third in adjusted yards per pass, second in touchdown rate, and second in interception rate. In a season where no skill players have made the leap to challenge for MVP votes, he’s pushed his way into third place for a team that failed to surround him with talent at the draft, in free agency, or at the trade deadline. That’s impressive, even given his recent downturn. — CD
Trade deadline recap extravaganza!
The Patriots traded a seventh-round pick for a wide receiver with 41 career receptions. The Dolphins acquired a running back with three carries in all of 2020.
That’s it. That’s all that happened.
The NFL trade deadline sucks again.
Thursday Night Football picks
What was supposed to be a highly anticipated NFC Championship game rematch now sounds like, well, your standard Thursday Night Football affair. Both the Packers and 49ers are limping into their Week 9 matchup, literally and — because each is coming off a loss to a divisional rival — figuratively.
Due to Covid and injuries, the Packers could be down to just two running backs: Tyler Ervin (?) and Dexter Williams (???), who have 78 career rushing yards between them. The 49ers will be without Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle for a while, the latest names on a Pro Bowl roster-like injury list. The reigning NFC champs have their own running back shortage and will head into Thursday with just JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon.
Luckily for the Packers, the 49ers won’t have the running back who tormented them in the playoffs, Raheem Mostert. Unluckily for the Packers, their defense still has major problems against the run and didn’t do anything before the trade deadline to fix them!
Still, our panel is leaning toward the Packers for this game:
That includes this week’s guest picker, Alex Kirshner. Alex was a blogmaster at SB Nation/Banner Society, where he specialized in college football but could write a killer takedown of Kyle Shanahan in, like, 10 minutes if called upon by an editor or, more often, the football gods.
Nowadays, Alex is keeping busy in both the CFB and NFL worlds. He makes NFL picks each week with our Week 2 guest, Richard Johnson, at OddsChecker. If you’re into college football, you should check out their podcast, Split Zone Duo. Alex is also part of the all-star Moon Crew team, if you’re looking to sign up for another fun (and free!) newsletter. And if you’d like to get a head start on holiday shopping, The Sinful Seven ebook that Alex helped co-write can be purchased for as little as 99 cents right now.
Alex is a Maryland grad, and although I didn’t ask him, I can only assume he’s turned into a conference homer who picked the Packers solely because they reside in a Big Ten state. Or, like many of us, maybe he just feels some affinity for the state of Wisconsin right now.
Or it’s, y’know, it’s because of all those 49ers injuries. — SH
Why I picked the 49ers
I better justify my pick, or try to anyway, since it’s such an obvious outlier. Green Bay is favored by 5.5 points, which is a very reasonable prediction given what we know about both teams. Remembering that the Niners had lost George Kittle, I almost went back and changed my pick, but I didn’t. But they lost their starting QB!! Yeah, that’s true, but was he really adding that much to the equation? And it’s not like they’re replacing him with Andy Dalton. Nick Mullens is that rare backup who doesn’t make the team worse.
Being the home team doesn’t carry much advantage for the 49ers; they’re 1-3 there this season. Even last season, two of their three losses came at home. But 2020 is definitely not 2019, not for any of us (ha, I remember having a job in 2019, WILD TIMES!), and especially the Niners. So why pick them?
Maybe this is hopelessly out of touch with reality, but I feel like Kyle Shanahan is capable of designing a good enough run game to tie the Packers in knots. And, lol, nobody’s ever gone wrong giving Kyle Shanahan the benefit of the doubt. Conversely, I have the same level of district for the Packers, so it sort of cancels out. More than anything, I’m going with my gut here, which has grown enough under lockdown to be near-sentient. — RVB