What is Philip Rivers doing differently in Indianapolis?
Plus a tale of smoked turkeys and our can't-miss picks for Week 11
And will the Colts be able to rewrite his playoff history?
I didn’t think the Philip Rivers experiment in Indianapolis would work. The Colts needed stability at quarterback after an injured Jacoby Brissett fell apart over the back half of the 2019 season. Rivers was an eight-time Pro Bowler with a strong regular season track record, but he was anything but stable.
The 17-year veteran was coming off arguably his worst season as a pro. His snakebitten Chargers found ways to lose that were out of his control, but his efforts to will his offense back into contention led to unhinged throws and little success. He threw 20 interceptions for the third time in his career. His 23 touchdown passes were the least he’d had since 2007 — his second year as a full-time starter.
These were all troubling trends from a quarterback waist-deep in his late-30s. The Colts threw a one-year, $25 million contract on his plate anyway. It worked!
Through 10 weeks, Indianapolis leads the AFC South at 6-3. Concerns about a soft early schedule were assuaged in last week’s 34-17 stomping of the Tennessee Titans:
Rivers has upped his completion rate, dropped his interception rate, and currently boasts a QBR a full 14 points higher than the one with which he finished 2019.
What’s he doing differently? Is it sustainable? Are the Colts gonna make their first playoff appearance since Andrew Luck rode off into the sunset?
Rivers has been more willing to accept shorter throws rather than force bad situations
Doing too much is a proud Rivers ethos. The family. The mobile film lab. The man is a lot.
Frank Reich understood this and took some pressure from his overtaxed shoulders. He devised a gameplan that allowed his newfound quarterback to dial back big throws when they weren’t there and instead fall back to a more conservative approach that deals in the team’s offensive depth.
Rivers’ average throw depth has fallen from 8.5 yards in his last season as a Charger to 6.8 this fall. That has led to easier completions, a boost in completion rate, and less strain on an aging passer prone to give in to his most Favre-ian of bad instincts. He’d attempted 4.5 passes of 20+ yards per game last season, but only 2.9 this fall, instead opting to check down to closer options. For example, his tight ends — Hunter Henry and Virgil Green — averaged 5.5 targets per game last season. Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox, Rivers’ tight end trio in Indy, have averaged 7.4 targets each week.
These shorter routes typically have less air under them — and fewer opportunities for defenders to create havoc. That has Rivers playing more efficiently despite a bad throw rate that’s steadily risen the past two years (from 12.9 percent to 15.4 to 16.6 through nine games). That’s worrying, but it certainly doesn’t suggest he can’t slice the ball through a rapidly closing window like the good ol’ days.
Rivers’ improved efficiency, factored with a defense that has had him playing from behind significantly less often than he had as a Charger, has seen him cut his interception rate from 3.6 percent to 2.4. This happened despite a relative downgrade in overall receiving targets (more on that later).
This is good, but early returns may not be sustainable as the schedule gets tougher. If Rivers continues to struggle with accuracy on his longer throws, he’s going to need someone who can track down off-target passes effectively. Fortunately, that player may already be on the roster.
Michael Pittman’s emergence should help him keep this pace
Rivers built himself a career on the border of good and great thanks to a heady list of playmakers who made his life easier. Part of the reason I didn’t like the Colts’ move was because Rivers appeared to be trading down from a stacked receiving group — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler — to a less proven one headlined by an aging T.Y. Hilton, who was coming off an injury-marred age 30 season.
Hilton’s speed-based game hasn’t rebounded at 31, taking him from Pro Bowl caliber to roughly replacement level when healthy. Injuries to Parris Campbell and Marlon Mack further sapped the team’s playmaking cache. Rivers adjusted by spreading the ball out across a deep, but not star-heavy offense — nine different players have at least 15 targets so far this season for Indy, while a team like the Chiefs only has six such players that fit that bill. Still, someone needed to step up and break out in order to give opponents something to worry about other than the Colts’ defense.
Then came Week 10. Wide receiver Michael Pittman missed a good chunk of his debut season due to compartment syndrome in his leg, but worked through that injury to claim his spot in the starting lineup. After a slow reintroduction to the offense, he broke through in primetime in a key divisional showdown with the Titans: seven catches on eight targets, 101 receiving yards, and another 21 on the ground. Pittman filled pretty much every role offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni had for him, from downfield threat to out pattern quick-hitter to even earning end-around handoffs:
The rookie may not have blazing straight-line speed (he ran a 4.52s 40 in pre-draft workouts), but he slides through routes effectively thanks to top-level agility and is capable of winning one-on-one battles in coverage. At 6’4 and 225 pounds, he’s a red zone threat and a load for most cornerbacks to climb over to swat passes. He’s also got great hands and concentration skills:
If Pittman can realize his potential, he’ll give Rivers license to make the kind of high-risk, high-reward throws he used to make to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams; the same kind of throws he thought he’d be making to a rejuvenated Hilton. That’s a boon for the Colts, and it’s a boon for a quarterback who, in his heart of hearts, just wants to make big plays and then awkwardly roast opponents about it.
Can the Colts keep this up?
Indianapolis is insulated should Rivers regress. The Colts’ defense is led by do-it-all linebacker Darius Leonard and a pass rush that generates tons of pressure (24 percent) despite blitzing less than all but two other teams in the NFL. That unit is ranked fourth-best in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Their 35 missed tackles are the least in the league by a large margin. The Colts aren’t going to beat themselves with bad mistakes, and that means their offense is going to get a shot to win games nearly every week (though some days they’ll open a game by allowing the Browns to score on their first four drives. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )
The good news is this team has won games where Rivers has been a gunslinger and others where he’s been a game manager. The Colts outshined the Titans on a day where their veteran quarterback threw 39 times for 308 yards. They handled the Vikings and Bears in games where he didn’t top 30 attempts in either win. Having a top-five defense will do that for you.
But! A downturn for Rivers where he devolves into his least efficient self sends ripples through the rest of the roster. Indianapolis is 1-3 in games where he records a passer rating under 90.0 (he was 1-8 in similar games for LA last year). His overall passer rating last fall was … 88.5.
The bad news is the schedule gets much tougher than it was over the first 10 weeks. The Colts only played one team currently in line for one of the NFL’s 14 playoff spots, and that was a 24-10 loss to the Ravens (the Titans, once 5-0, are currently the AFC’s ninth seed. Wild). They’ll finish off the regular season with showdowns against the Packers, Raiders, and Steelers and have a Week 12 rematch with Tennessee that may decide the AFC South.
The AFC, with nine teams at 6-3 or better, is set for a furious finish. The Colts may need to hit double-digit wins to feel safe about their postseason hopes (and even that wouldn’t guarantee them a place). Wins the next two weeks over Green Bay and Tennessee — both games will be at home — would be the perfect balm to soothe any burns from lingering Rivers brain farts. If he and Pittman play like they did in Week 10, they’ll be welcoming a wild card team to Indianapolis this January. If not they’ll be battling with the Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders for one of the conference’s final playoff spots. — CD
Seahawks vs. Cardinals, in five words or fewer
Week 11 picks
Seahawks-Cardinals, 2 Fast 2 Furious was the dogfight we expected it to be on Thursday night. It was also an appropriate way to kick off Week 11, when we welcome a dog as our guest picker. As he explained earlier this week, RVB recruited his pup, Ewok, to help us out and in turn, she was rewarded with some treats.
It’s no surprise that Ewok sided with the Browns, home of the Dawg Pound. However, it’s a bit of an upset that she went with the Falcons over the Saints, who have Gumbo as one of their two mascots. (Gumbo is the St. Bernard, while Sir Saint is the one with the testicle face.)
Ewok isn’t afraid of taking chances with her picks, which brings a little variety to our panel. She was the only one who thought the Cardinals would win, and she’s a lone wolf when it comes to the Falcons, Broncos, Cowboys, and Raiders. In fact, there were only three winners we all agreed on: the Browns, Steelers, and Bucs. That suggests there are more dogfights to come in the NFL this weekend. — SH
The “I’m not predicting an upset” game: Falcons vs. Saints
I completely understand if you think the Saints are ripe for an upset this week. The Falcons are 3-1 under Raheem Morris (and 2-0 since I vowed to stop picking them to win games; you’re welcome, Atlanta). After a bye week, they’re relatively healthy, certainly more than the Saints. Drew Brees is injured, which means two things: Sean Payton will use Taysom Hill way too much, and Jameis Winston should be back in the starting lineup for the first time since he did this against the Falcons:
Speaking of last year, a similar Falcons team — one that started to play competent football in the second half of the season, a bit too late to do anything but hurt their draft position — won in the Superdome. This is one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries, and we know anything can happen when these two meet.
So why am I taking the Saints? They’re the most efficient team in the NFL, per Football Outsiders, and incredibly balanced. Brees hasn’t really been beating opponents by himself, either, which makes it easier for the rest of the team to step up in his absence — just like they did last year. New Orleans is built to withstand a Brees injury; it’s one of the reasons it went out and signed Winston in the offseason. Winston isn’t as game manager-like as Teddy Bridgewater, but he’s got a stronger arm if Payton is willing to take chances. If not, then we saw a glimpse of Winston with his training wheels on last week when the Saints beat the 49ers. Even though it wasn’t terribly exciting, it at least worked. — SH
The “Big Ten vs. MAC” game: Steelers vs. Jaguars
This week, Mike Tomlin riled up his own quarterback, a Miami (OH) product, when the Steelers coach said this:
It wasn’t an entirely fair comparison — Western Michigan could very possibly beat Michigan and Michigan State on the football field right now. But he’s right that Steelers vs. Jaguars isn’t exactly an Ohio State vs. Akron-level mismatch.
Last week, the Jaguars had the Packers on upset watch for most of their game. A week before that, the Steelers escaped Dallas with a five-point win over the Garrett Gilbert-led Cowboys. The Jaguars have a history of being a thorn in the Steelers’ side, too, though that’s usually in the postseason.
Still, the Steelers got their scare two weeks ago and should be ready to go in Jacksonville. The Jags will probably try really hard, but they just don’t have the players who can go toe-to-toe with the Steelers, especially their defense, for all four quarters. In some ways, that does sound like a Big Ten vs. MAC matchup. — SH
The “Yes, things can and will get worse” game: Jets vs. Chargers
You can point to any number of things to convince me that the Chargers should roll right over the Jets in this one. The Jets are terrible, they’re coached by Adam Gase (who is also a big reason why they are terrible), they lack talent, etc., etc. The Chargers, on the other hand, aren’t exactly contenders, but they can score points, which should be more than enough to have this thing wrapped up 45 minutes into it. Ah, but my friends, we’re forgetting that these are the Chargers.
While the Jets may be committed to shittiness. The Chargers are deeply rooted in tragedy. From two WTF playoff losses from the Marty Ball era, including that one in 2005 to the Jets, or the haphazard and ugly relocation fight, and right up to this season’s string of collapses and thwarted comebacks, the Chargers always find a way to lose when they shouldn’t. Beyond that, it’s hard to get to 0-16 in the modern NFL, and a Jets win will only complicate the draft picture. Yeah, the Chargers should have this one in the bag, but don’t be surprised when it all goes to hell sometime in the fourth quarter. --RVB
Smoked Turkeys Up in Smoke
Like most families, we have a few holiday traditions that we look forward to. Most of them stuffing ourselves silly with mashed potatoes, biscuits and gravy, pies of all sorts, and a long list of other foods we don’t bother with during the rest of the year. Another plus with our tradition of gaining one point in waist size in two months, is that it’s relatively COVID-proof, which means for all the other bullshit to deal with right now, at least our winter feast is relatively safe from an explosive pandemic.
Ah, but in this terrible year (as you may have heard) nothing you love is immune to getting blown up. Literally blown up in this case.
Every year since my wife and I have been married--and it’ll be 16 years next month--her dad sent us a Greenberg smoked turkey. It arrives in a sturdy cardboard box, the kind with a locking lid. Tucked within and wrapped in heavy plastic is the most delicious dead bird I’ve ever tasted. As soon as you take it out of the packaging, the whole house fills with that smoky aroma. Some would call it a strong smell, and I wouldn’t argue with them. It’s powerful because it needs to be. It’s an aromatic beacon advising you that you are about to embark on a multi-day journey into flavor country.
My hot take on turkey is that it really kind of sucks. I know there’s an extremely onine contingent that likes it fried. And there are the traditionalists who brine and baste the shit out of it in the mostly vain hope that it will be slightly less dry and flavorless after several hours in the oven. But there is only one way a turkey can be made to taste good, and that is to be factory smoked in Tyler, Texas, halfway between Dallas and Shreveport.
But not this year.
Factory explosions are just part of life in that weird nexus of the world where Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas intermingle and government regulations go to die. Usually it’s a fireworks maker or a gas refinery. But this time it was a beautiful, small family business that sends out some 80,000 smoked turkeys for the enlightened folks who know there is no other way to enjoy this large, loud fowl.
We don’t know what caused the factory to blow up. (I mean, it’s East Texas, so I wouldn’t rule out spontaneous combustion). And fortunately, nobody was hurt … nobody except those of us awaiting a plate full of stinky smoked turkey on Thanksgiving, followed by days of sandwiches, and capped off with a homemade turkey stock so strong it might actually have a role in ozone depletion.
https://www.facebook.com/GreenbergSmokedTurkeys/photos/a.697897506896342/3795626707123391/?type=3
Like all of us, the Greenbergs have vowed to come roaring back next year, when the cosmic tides realign to send goodness back into the Earth’s core so that it might radiate out and touch all life, blessing us once again with the ability to stand next to gap toothed strangers in the grocery store and to gather for just a few hours with the stranger parts of our extended families to bask in the bouquet of a smoked turkey. --RVB