The amazing race for the AFC’s final playoff spots
Four teams with a lot of weird subplots and fun players are battling for two postseason bids. And Thursday night's game is actually important because of this!
For all intents and purposes, we know who five of the seven AFC playoff teams will be. The Steelers, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Titans are all barrelling toward the postseason with few expected detours.
The last two teams? That’s where things get interesting.
The battle for the American Football Conference’s final wild card spots features a handful of former bottom feeders all looking to snap long playoff droughts, as well as a pair of postseason regulars who could fight their way into the fray. The Browns, Raiders, and Dolphins could each record their first postseason wins in more than a decade with a furious finish. The Colts could regain their status as a playoff power broker by getting Philip Rivers to the second season.
What does each team bring to the table? Let’s break down the AFC’s contenders in rough order of their postseason odds.
The four teams battling for two spots
Indianapolis (5-3)
The Colts could have planted their flag as a inked-in playoff team by beating the Ravens in Week 9. Instead, Philip Rivers looked like the late-stage gunslinger the Chargers were happy to replace and flailed to a 24-10 loss. The soon-to-be 39-year-old needed 43 passes to gain only 227 yards, found the end zone zero times, and had his worst game of the season.
It didn’t help that he also did this:
That puts a stain on his comeback season, but from Weeks 2-8 he’d been exactly the kind of useful veteran signing for which Indianapolis had hoped. The Colts went 5-1 in that span as Rivers upped his touchdown rate, sliced his turnover rate, and posted a 99.3 passer rating that stood as a double-digit improvement over his 2019 campaign in Los Angeles.
Indianapolis would get a major boost if he can be that quarterback full time, but there’s reason to believe this is a playoff team even if Rivers gives in to his most Favre-ian instincts. Per Football Outsiders, the Colts field the league’s third-ranked defense that’s equally effective against both the run and the pass. In Week 9, that group held the typically explosive Ravens to an inefficient 4.2 yards per play (the Steelers could only hold them to 6.1 the week earlier).
The good news is All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard isn’t satisfied with falling short of “great.”
That’s a scary group to welcome to town for a wild card game. The Colts are content to drag you into the muck with them. That’s a great way to turn postseason opportunities into playoff wins.
Las Vegas (5-3)
The Raiders escaped Week 9 with a win by the skin of their teeth thanks to a very Chargers finish:
While it may have been tight, that still counts as a W in the standings and has moved Derek Carr another step closer to the first playoff start of his seven-year career. The young veteran has been the centerpiece of Vegas’ revival, recording personal bests in touchdown rate (6.2 percent, 10th among qualified QBs), adjusted yards per pass (8.7, sixth), and passer rating (110.0, fifth) despite a little-hyped receiving corps led by players like Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Nelson Agholor.
The Raiders will need him to keep that pace to stay afloat in the playoff race. Vegas’ secondary, ranked 27th in the league against the pass by Football Outsiders, is upholding a rich tradition by remaining an absolute sieve; it’s given up 300+ passing yards in half its games this fall. The Raiders have given up 30 points or more in five of eight games, which is a decidedly un-championship pace.
Still, there are silver linings that suggest a mostly anonymous group can punch above its weight class. Las Vegas blitzes less than any team but the Chargers, but its 11.8 percent hurry rate is fifth-best in the NFL through Week 9. The Raiders have done more with less throughout the 2020 season. That can either set the tone for the back end of their schedule or set the stage for a disappointing regression back to the mean.
If Vegas makes it to the postseason, it can be trouble. The Raiders’ Week 5 win in Kansas City proved that. Getting there won’t be easy, but it could lead to the team’s first playoff win since January 2003.
Cleveland (5-3)
The Browns’ 5-1 start has had several pounds of compost shoveled upon it in recent weeks. An easy early schedule gave way to a handful of opportunities for the Browns to prove their legitimacy. They turned that into a 1-3 record against teams with winning records and the concerning stigma of giving up 64 total points in two games against the Bengals. Not only did Cleveland get rolled by the Steelers in a 38-6 loss (eesh) and managed only six points against a limited Raiders defense, the team also lost top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a torn ACL.
There’s a lot to be worried about with a team that’s scored 32+ points five times and seven or fewer three. The biggest concern lies with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has struggled to regain the late-2018 form that once made him one of the league’s most promising young passers (and opened him up to a litany of endorsements that mean you see Baker roughly 20 times during a standard broadcast Sunday). Mayfield’s career has been a cycle of hype-letdown-doubt-explosion-hype-letdown, etc, and it’s been particularly vicious this year. After dusting the Bengals for five touchdowns, he returned to the field a week later and managed only 122 passing yards in the aforementioned Week 9 loss to Las Vegas.
Mayfield is nowhere near the circle of trust, but Cleveland’s offense can better mitigate his bad days with a healthy Nick Chubb — who hasn’t played since Week 4 with an MCL sprain but should return for the latter half of the season — churning out yards from the backfield. The Browns will need every inch of offense they can get to offset a defense that continually looks better in theory than it ever does in practice.
A woeful linebacker corps and limited depth around Denzel Ward in the secondary means Cleveland is inconsistent against the run and the pass. In four games, division rivals have recorded a 115.3 passer rating and 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against them. The team has Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, and Shelton Richardson up front yet ranks tied for 30th in quarterback hits and 26th in pressure rate. Opponents have converted nearly 50 percent of their third down attempts against the Browns.
This is all very bad, but the schedule will break their way over the final eight games. Contests against the Jaguars, Jets, Giants, and Texans (five wins between them) should help Cleveland finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007. They may need wins over the Steelers, Ravens, or Titans to push them into their first postseason since 2002.
Miami (5-3)
The Dolphins are way ahead of schedule in what had been a complete teardown of a mediocre roster. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 2-0 as a starter. While he didn’t have to do much in a blowout win over the Rams, his Week 9 victory over the Cardinals showcased the potential that once made him a top candidate to be the top pick in this year’s draft.
Tagovailoa wasn’t intimidated by the top 10 defense on the other sideline, playing well both in the scripted playcalling of the game’s first half and the improvisational gameplan that followed as the contest wore on. He completed eight of his 10 pass attempts in the final 16 minutes (at an 8.1 yard-per-attempt clip) and ran for 24 important yards to turn a 31-24 deficit into a 34-31 win.
What’s more encouraging is that Arizona more or less knew what was coming, but still failed to stop it. Tagovailoa went 17-of-21 on throws to his top four targets (DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki), so this wasn’t a Chargers-esque, we-got-burned-by-Gabe-f****ing-Nabers deal. The rookie probably won’t be able to do that every week — especially as opponents harvest more of his game film — but beating the Cardinals the way he did is a powerful statement for Miami’s playoff chances.
If you’d like some more Dolphins analysis, we’ve got that covered for you in Monday’s Post Route.
But don’t count out …
New England (3-5)
The Patriots are struggling through their worst start since Crazy Town was a thing, but their sub-.500 run through the first half of the season was dictated by razor-thin defeats. Three of their five losses were decided by six points or fewer, and a 26-10 outcome in Kansas City can be explained by Cam Newton’s absence after a positive COVID-19 test (the 33-6 loss to San Francisco remains … troubling).
New England probably doesn’t have the personnel to extend its postseason streak without a massive improvement from Newton and the passing game, but the team can’t be ruled out just yet. You don’t bury Bill Belichick without securing a body first, as he’s proven time and time again the past two decades.
Houston (2-6)
I know, I know. The Texans are not only bad, but playing under a 73-year-old interim head coach who went 2-14 in his last full-time gig. They’re also a solid three games out of the playoff race with eight games to play.
But! Those last eight games aren’t especially difficult. Dates against the Bears, Patriots, Browns, and Bengals loom for a team that’s gone 2-2 — with an overtime loss to the Titans in that stretch — since firing Bill O’Brien and elevating Romeo Crennel to its top spot. There’s a very dim light at the end of Houston’s tunnel, but it’s a light nonetheless. — CD
The playoff outlook for the NFC’s worst teams
While the AFC is home to five teams with two or fewer wins, the NFC only has two — and yes, both play in the NFC East. As a result, every NFC squad is reasonably alive in its respective division. Let’s take a quick look at the last-place teams and how they could still make it to the postseason, even if it’s a bit of a long shot.
NFC East: Cowboys (2-7); Giants (2-7)
Why they could still make the playoffs: They play in the NFC East, the Schrödinger's cat division where every team is simultaneously in the postseason race and completely out of it.
NFC North: Vikings (3-5); Lions (3-5)
Why they could still make the playoffs: Just a few weeks ago, we were ready to write the Vikings off and it looked like they were too. But now, the Vikings might finally be hitting their stride after two straight division wins. If they can keep that consistency, and Dalvin Cook stays healthy, then they’re a dangerous opponent.
The Lions have a fairly easy schedule for the rest of November. If they can avoid Lions-ing it up this month and they channel the version of themselves that beat the Cardinals earlier this season, then perhaps they can carry that momentum into December.
NFC South: Falcons (3-6); Panthers (3-6)
Why they could still make the playoffs: Last year, the Falcons started 1-7 and then went 6-2 the rest of the way, with wins over the playoff-bound Saints and 49ers. This year, they started 0-5 and are 3-1 since firing Dan Quinn. Their remaining schedule is a gauntlet, but they seem to enjoy playing for Raheem Morris and are at least capable of beating good teams, if they can manage to get out of their own way.
Although the Panthers have lost four in a row, they’ve all been by eight points or fewer. And they just gave the Chiefs a scare in Week 9. Matt Rhule’s team was supposed to be in the running for the No. 1 pick in the draft, but they’ve been better than expected this season. It helps that Rhule and OC Joe Brady have used Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson properly (finally!), and Teddy Bridgewater has been putting up some of the best numbers of his career. Plus, Christian McCaffrey is back.
NFC West: 49ers (4-5)
Why they could still make the playoffs: Despite all their injuries, the 49ers have the 12th-ranked defense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. And they’ll be welcoming back Richard Sherman. On offense, Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel could be in the lineup again soon, and a potential Jimmy Garoppolo return hasn’t been ruled out. No team has been bit by the injury bug more than the 49ers this season. If they can get healthier, then we can’t count them out. — SH
Thursday Night Football picks
Two weeks in a row with a meaningful Thursday Night Football game? Truly the gods have smiled on us this week, a slight reprieve from the 2020 nightmare.
Let’s start with the playoff implications. Tennessee currently leads the AFC South —something that we can say now without it being a punchline. But a Colts win would give them both a 6-3 record, though the Titans would still lead by virtue of their 2-1 record in the division. (Indianapolis’ Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, lol, is definitely going to come back to haunt them.) So while it’s not a must-win in the elimination sense of things, essentially, the Colts needs this one more than the Titans do. But they have a rematch coming up in just two weeks.
Tennessee is a slight favorite here, two points, and a little over 60 percent of bettors agree. That’s certainly where our panel is leaning with three of four picks for the Titans. So why listen to an idiot who went 6-8 last week for picking the Colts to win this one? While I will never sleep on the possibility of old Philip Rivers tearing defeat from the jaws of victory with a few WTF throws in the fourth quarter, the Colts defense provides him with a big, beautiful safety net, especially that defensive line.
They struggled a little bit last week against the run because of Lamar Jackson. Understandable. And while the Titans have one helluva run game with Derrick Henry, Indy’s front seven should be able to bottle that up pretty effectively, and force the Titans to throw the ball a little more than they’d like to.
Then again, I could be totally wrong. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time, but when in doubt, always root for chaos. A Colts win keeps the playoff race interesting. — RVB
Our guest picker this week is a NCAA and XFL veteran who just picked up a gig lending his analysis of Vanderbilt football to 247Sports. Bruno Reagan was one of the SEC’s top interior linemen as a Commodore and later a star for the St. Louis Battlehawks, but his quiet excellence has yet to land him an NFL contract.
He’s hoping The Rock’s spring football reboot can provide another chance to kick some ass, but until then he’s happy returning to his combat sport roots. Reagan, a lifelong judoka who owns and operates Reagan Martial Arts in his hometown of Clarksville, Tennessee, recently swept through the International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation’s prestigious Pan Championships at the blue belt level.
So he knows a little about football AND tossing fully grown men around. Which is good!
He, like two-thirds of the Post Route, is also pulling for his local team, the Tennessee Titans. They’ll have to hope Derrick Henry can crack one of the league’s top rushing defenses to stay atop the AFC South through Week 10. —CD