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We break down the slam dunks, the toughest games to predict, and the upsets (or lack thereof) to watch in Week 2. Plus, a preview of the Emmy Awards.
It’s always a little tricky making Week 1 picks. Even with a preseason this year, you never know what a team will look like once it hits the football field for the first time that truly matters. That partly explains why nine of last week’s 16 games were considered upsets, at least according to Vegas.
While we’ve seen all 16 teams in action now, Week 2 presents its own challenges. The heightened emotions from the season opener are in the rearview mirror, and with a small sample size, you have to fight the urge to weigh one performance too heavily.
Last week, the three of us each had a respectable showing — and we were 100 percent right about the upsets we chose to highlight — but we’re hoping for a little better results in Week 2.
Now let’s talk about this weekend’s matchups in a little more detail.
Sarah’s picks
Though I acknowledged homefield advantage doesn’t really exist in the NFL anymore, I still gave the hosts an edge when making my picks last week. That ended up being a bit of a mistake. The visiting team won exactly half of the Week 1 matchups.
This week, I didn’t even consider the location when deciding the winner. As it turns out, I like the road team in nine of the 16 matchups, including my almost-but-not-correct pick of the Giants over Washington on Thursday night. Here are the rest of them (my picks in bold):
Bengals at Bears
Texans at Browns
Rams at Colts
Bills at Dolphins
Patriots at Jets
49ers at Eagles
Raiders at Steelers
Saints at Panthers
Broncos at Jaguars
Vikings at Cardinals
Falcons at Bucs
Cowboys at Chargers
Titans at Seahawks
Chiefs at Ravens
Lions at Packers
I’m feeling most confident in these picks (Last week: 3-0)
I promise not to include the defending champs in this section each week; they’re not going 17-0 and they looked a little vulnerable against the Cowboys. But the Bucs probably aren’t going to turn the ball over four times every game (Bruce Arians will become the Joker if that happens). And, well, this week they’re hosting the Falcons, who played much worse than I could’ve imagined … and worse than every other team in the league, except (or including?) the Jaguars. The offense, which was at least expected to keep them in games this year, couldn’t be bothered to show up against the Eagles. And that offensive line? Phew, good luck against Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, JPP, Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.
The Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs to secure their 17th straight non-win in a season opener, but I don’t think they’ll fall to 0-2 for the first time since their 0-16 campaign, even against a less-disastrous-than-expected Texans team.
I don’t care how Amateur Hour the Packers seemed last week, or how much fight the Lions showed as they tried to rally against the 49ers. It’s Aaron Rodgers vs. the Lions in a primetime game. I’ve seen this movie before — more than once — and I know how it ends.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks (Last week: 1-2)
The Bears’ double-digit loss to the Rams last week was both closer than the final score would suggest and not as bad as it could’ve been. Meanwhile, the Bengals showed rare perseverance (and even rarer good fortune) when they beat the Vikings in overtime. Most fans, even those outside of Chicago, would like to see the Bears turn to Justin Fields, who flashed his playmaking ability in his brief time on the field Sunday night. But Andy Dalton wasn’t terrible against the Rams, and I think he’ll be ready to go against his former team this week.
Last year, Dalton faced the Bengals as a member of the Cowboys and put together one of his best games of the year (two touchdowns, 0 INTs, 122.6 passer rating in a blowout win). I think he can produce a similar statline this week against a Bengals secondary currently ranked (yes, after just Week 1) 29th in the NFL. Of course, Joe Burrow could also go off against the Bears, who apparently forgot to get Cooper Kupp a birthday present in June and made it up to him by gift-wrapping him the easiest touchdown of his career:
The Eagles were surprisingly dominant in Week 1 and next head home for a meeting with the 49ers, who sleepwalked through the second half against the Lions. The 49ers’ injuries woes have already begun, and Kyle Shanahan is playing mind games with a couple of his young guys, for reasons no one can really figure out.
Although the 49ers still have the talent advantage, what looked like a gimme win just a couple weeks ago is now more of a toss-up.
I had been planning on including Chiefs-Ravens in this section, but the Ravens’ injury list continues to multiply by the day as if they were doing an imitation of the 49ers that no one wanted.
Why I made these upset picks (Last week: 2-0)
Well, I’m heading into Sunday 0-1 with my upset picks. Earlier in the week, I explained why I went with the Giants over Washington. I was almost right. In fact, I should have been. But in the end, one of these teams is coached by Joe Judge, and quite frankly, I should’ve known better.
I don’t really know why I like the Cowboys over the Chargers, especially considering all the blows the Dallas roster has been dealt this past week:
I guess I’m giving the nod to the Cowboys because they’ve had a couple extra days off, and despite a come-from-behind win last week, I need more than one game’s worth of evidence to trust the Chargers in a close contest. No matter who wins, though, I expect big games from Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.
Christian’s picks
Welp, there’s not much variance between my picks and Sarah’s once again. There are some interesting matchups this week, though not a lot of games that have me buying into the upset factor following Week 1.
The Bengals eventually fended off the Vikings, but now have to face a Bears team fighting for its coach’s job on the road. The Colts are better than an 0-2 start would suggest, but they’ve got to deal with a blazing Rams offense after having little success stopping the Seahawks’ passing game. The Ravens won’t be woozy from the fumes of Las Vegas’s chaos engine this week for their home opener … but they’ve got to deal with the Chiefs, who proved last Sunday they’re still THE CHIEFS.
So hey, let’s get chalky.
Bengals at Bears
Texans at Browns
Rams at Colts
Bills at Dolphins
Patriots at Jets
49ers at Eagles
Raiders at Steelers
Saints at Panthers
Broncos at Jaguars
Vikings at Cardinals
Falcons at Bucs
Cowboys at Chargers
Titans at Seahawks
Chiefs at Ravens
Lions at Packers
Pick I like the most
Good news everyone! This feature is already 0-1 because the Texans are better than I thought and the Jaguars/Urban Meyer experience is destined to last 13 weeks.
Let’s bounce back and correct a wrong from last week. As a bonafide Rhode Island Scumbag (™) It hurt my heart to pick against the Patriots. My reasoning was Mac Jones would struggle against a budding head coach whose mentor thrived when it came to dismantling rookie passers. While the outcome was correct, Jones wasn’t the problem in Week 1. Now he’ll get the chance to face a Jets’ defense that was happy to enable Sam Darnold’s revenge fantasy last week.
Toughest game to pick
I went back and forth on Cowboys-Chargers after both teams exceeded expectations in Week 1. Dak Prescott has thrown for 400+ yards in each of the last four regular season games he’s finished and the LA passing defense is the same group that allowed Taylor Heinicke to post a 119.2 passer rating last Sunday. The Dallas defense didn’t inspire any confidence either, allowing 30+ points for the 10th time in its last 17 games. The Chargers will play their home opener for the first time at an open-for-business SoFi Stadium. This would normally be a factor, but this is the Chargers so, at best, it’s gonna be a 50/50 fan split because Los Angeles does not now, nor has ever in the past, given a shit about this team.
Ultimately I rolled with Justin Herbert having a statement game over Prescott. Both quarterbacks looked stellar in leading fourth quarter come-from-behind drives last week. This is more gut feeling than confirmed thesis, so by all means feel free to flip a coin if you’re in the same boat I am.
Upset pick I like the most
Well this is embarrassing. As of Thursday, my entire slate is all chalk; nothing but betting favorites. That’s concerning, but I’m not of the mindset of predicting an upset just to pick one.
There are two games where I’m on the narrow end of the picking media, and that’s Bengals-Bears and Cowboys-Chargers (update: this has changed and the Chargers are getting about 59% of the pick love). Let’s talk about Chicago, which at -145 is the slightest favorite of this week’s slate. The Bears got boat-raced by the Rams, but that was on the road in a game where LA:
Boasted one of the league’s best defenses
Unveiled the hyped quarterback for whom it traded two first-round picks
Played in its new $5 billion stadium in front of a full house for the first time
The Bears never stood a chance, but they do on Sunday. They get a Bengals team that ranked 27th in defensive DVOA last season and who allowed unseasoned breadstick Kirk Cousins to eventually throw for 351 yards against them. While this matchup could be bad news for David Montgomery after Dalvin Cook had only 61 yards on 20 carries last weekend, it should create space for Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and the rest of a passing offense where no player had more than 45 receiving yards in Week 1 a chance to shine.
Then there’s the Bears defense, which has the chops to do very bad things to Joe Burrow. Burrow was sacked five times and hit seven more in 32 dropbacks last week. This isn’t the Chicago pass rush of 2018, but it should still find plenty of traction against the Bengal offensive line. That should leave Joe Mixon to handle some heavy lifting, but the Bears ranked fourth in rushing DVOA after limiting LA to only 3.2 yards per carry.
The Bengals are playing with house money. The Bears need a win or else the vibration from “fire Matt Nagy” grumblings will begin to crack their foundation. And we haven’t even gotten to the Justin Fields factor, which is very much in play now that Chicago isn’t facing a team that could give him nightmares with two of the best defensive players in the league.
Emmy picks (as in the Emmy Awards, not someone named Emmy making NFL picks)
Last year’s Emmy Awards were a bit of a disappointment. Several of the winners were either retreads, predictable, or in the case of Schitt’s Creek sweeping the comedy side, overkill.
Thankfully, we have some new blood this year, but I also wouldn’t expect a ton of variety when the awards are announced Sunday night.
The virtual locks: The Crown and Ted Lasso will win big
The Crown is coming off its buzziest season yet, thanks to an all-star cast and the focus on the doomed marriage between Prince Charles and Princess Diana. It will almost assuredly win Outstanding Drama Series, and I would think Emma Corrin and Josh O’Connor are the favorites in the lead acting categories as the unhappy royal couple. If there’s a spoiler in the lead actor group, it’s Billy Porter, a previous winner whose character battled AIDS in the final season of Pose (Porter himself revealed that he’s been living with HIV for 14 years). Another Pose nominee, Mj Rodriguez, could follow in Zendaya’s footsteps as a surprise winner for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series.
Ted Lasso won’t pull a Schitt’s Creek, but that’s only because it can’t. The show does not have any nominees up for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy (I feel good about Jean Smart winning for Hacks). That said, the biggest Emmy slam dunks are the show itself for Outstanding Comedy Series and Jason Sudeikis for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series.
The age of appointment TV, when we as a society would all sit down and watch a show at the same time and then talk about it the next day, is mostly in the past. But Ted Lasso is one of the few series that has become part of our national consciousness. One reason it has resonated with viewers is how kind it is and how much we have missed that warmness in our lives. It’s a show that makes you feel good without necessarily being a “feel-good” show. Among the rapid-fire jokes and the storylines intent on lifting the characters up, there’s an underlying sadness to both the series Ted Lasso and the character. Sudeikis finds the right balance; Ted is never a caricature and that grounds the show and keeps it from being a parody of itself.
I also think one of the supporting actors — Brett Goldstein as Roy Kent, an already legendary TV character, is my guess — will take home the trophy. Same for one of the supporting actresses (likely Hannah Waddingham, who has delivered a layered performance as AFC Richmond owner Rebecca). But I could also see votes getting split in these two categories, which could open the door for an SNL cast member.
The hardest to predict: Any of the limited series categories
I’ve seen all of the limited series nominees, and all are ambitious in their own ways. I May Destroy You comes from Michaela Coel’s personal experience and offers no easy answers about consent. The Underground Railroad is beautiful, brutal, and haunting — one of the most difficult works of fiction I’ve ever consumed. WandaVision is both a love letter to TV and an exploration of grief.
However, I think most of these categories will come down to The Queen’s Gambit vs. Mare of Easttown. In both, the main characters screw up and use their skills (as a math/chess genius and as a detective, respectively) to push their trauma away until they can finally reach a place where the healing begins.
Based on how the Creative Emmys shook out — a lot of wins for The Queen’s Gambit — I think it might have the edge, and the same for Anya Taylor-Joy as Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series. I would never count out Kate Winslet, though, especially with her eerily accurate Pennsylvania accent and lack of self-consciousness as a stoic yet grieving mother trying to solve a murder.
Evan Peters in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series category might be Mare of Easttown’s best bet for a trophy. Paul Bettany (Lead Actor) and Kathryn Hahn (Supporting Actress) can get WandaVision on the board, though Bettany faces tough competition from Hugh Grant, who used his charm in a non-Hugh Grant way in The Undoing — indecipherable with a hint (maybe?) of sinisterness.
Really, though, Ethan Hawke should have won for his delightfully deranged portrayal of John Brown in The Good Lord Bird. I still don’t understand how he wasn’t even nominated.
The winner I’m most hoping for that I think will happen: Michael K. Williams in Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
I’m not certain, but I would guess Emmy voters had already cast their ballots before Williams’ untimely death a couple weeks ago. It shouldn’t matter, though. Williams gave one of the most visceral and moving performances of last year as Montrose Freeman in Lovecraft Country, and that Emmy should be his.
It’s impossible to ignore the similarities that Montrose shared with Williams’ other iconic TV characters — a gay (or queer) Black man like Omar Little, a man dealing with family issues in a period piece like Chalky White. Even so, Montrose was very different from both. Whereas Omar and Chalky were calm and cool under pressure, and so self-assured, Montrose was not. Montrose was easily rattled, haunted by a painful past that he was forced to directly confront. There was a meanness and anger to him, too, but he would also do anything to protect his son, even if his motives weren’t always clear.
Williams, as he always did, commanded the screen whenever he appeared in Lovecraft Country. I think there’s so much appreciation for Williams’ past performances and a desire to make amends for previous snubs (amazingly, he was never nominated for The Wire or Boardwalk Empire) that he was the favorite all along. But make no mistake: if his name is called Sunday night, it won’t be because Omar is one of the greatest characters TV has ever seen, or because we lost Williams much too soon. It will be because he put his soul into this complicated character and showed us what real trauma looks like.
The winner I’m most hoping for that I don’t think will happen: Pen15 for Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
Ted Lasso will most likely score the Emmy for Outstanding Writing for Comedy Series — it’s nominated twice, and I’d be perfectly happy to see it win for “Make Rebecca Great Again,” the first real time we see cracks in Ted’s eternally optimistic facade.
Considering how many smart and complex comedy series are currently airing/streaming, I’d love to see the Emmys spread the wealth a little. Last year, I desperately wanted to see What We Do in the Shadows win in this category for the instant-classic Jackie Daytona episode. It did not (guess what, it was Schitt’s Creek).
So I don’t have high hopes that Pen15 can break through, but I’ll still cheer if it happens. The show transports you back in time, reminding you of what it’s like to be 13 again — how everything that happens feels like A Big Deal — all while knowing, as an adult, what is actually a Big Deal, what isn’t, and how both of those can shape who you become. — SH
This week was really great writing. Please, someone pick up Post Route and publish it. Pay these people what they deserve!