Let's talk about our Week 1 picks
Wherein we welcome the Eagles and Colts to prove us wrong and put too much faith in the Bengals.
Last year, the three of us were pretty adept at making our weekly picks, if we do say so ourselves. Out of 269 games, regular season and postseason included, Christian finished with a 188-81 record, while Sarah (184-85) and RVB (173-96) were close behind.
Can we replicate that success in 2021? Hopefully!
Below, each of us presents our Week 1 picks and offers a bit of insight on the games that most caught our attention.
Sarah’s picks (and how confident she’s feeling about them)
Homefield advantage in the NFL has slowly dissipated over the years, and in 2020 it was negligible. Not counting three neutral site games, home teams ended the regular season barely above .500 with a 127-125-1 record.
That trend is not enough to influence my Week 1 picks. I’m leaning heavily toward the home teams, as you can see (my picks are in bold):
Cowboys at Bucs
Eagles at Falcons
Steelers at Bills
Vikings at Bengals
49ers at Lions
Cardinals at Titans
Seahawks at Colts
Chargers at Washington
Jets at Panthers
Jaguars at Texans
Browns at Chiefs
Dolphins at Patriots
Packers at Saints
Broncos at Giants
Bears at Rams
Ravens at Raiders
My reasoning is twofold: Fans will be back in the stadium for the first time since 2019 — hopefully vaccinated and masked as needed — and I think the home teams will feed off that energy. Also, these specific matchups favor the hosts more than not.
Still, I struggled deciding on a few of these games, and when advanced stats and point spreads didn’t provide me with an answer, I took the most scientific path of them all: I went with the ol’ gut.
I’m feeling most confident in these picks
The Bucs are the defending champs, 100 percent vaccinated, and playing at home against a Cowboys team that I’m not sure what to make of just yet. Dak Prescott could be a little rusty after coming off a major injury and sitting out the preseason slate with a shoulder issue.
The 49ers will face the Lions (enough said), and the Rams’ defensive line should feast against Andy Dalton and the Bears while “Justin Fields” trends on Twitter.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks
Although I think the Texans might be a tad better than expected, it’s still a fairly safe bet to pick against them each week. Urban Meyer and the Jaguars showed some growing pains during the preseason, and this young team is not a sure thing even against the presumed worst team in the league. Tyrod Taylor is a more skilled quarterback than he’s often given credit for, and this new version of the Houston defense has placed a big emphasis on forcing turnovers, which could rattle Trevor Lawrence a bit in his first start. The Texans absolutely have a chance … but I just can’t put any faith in them.
I was tempted to take the Browns, considering how close they came to upsetting the Chiefs in the playoffs and the improvements to Cleveland’s roster this offseason. But, a raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd, a healthy Patrick Mahomes, and the first game of the season … yeah, I won’t bet against the Chiefs, even if I think the Browns could win this same matchup if they meet again in January.
Cardinals-Titans is another game that could go either way. But I stuck with the favorites because I don’t trust the Cardinals defense to slow down the Titans’ high-octane offense. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans defense has its hands full with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense.
Why I made these upsets picks
I’m concerned with how Joe Burrow (and his offensive line) will look in his first real action since his ACL tear, but I’m more uncertain with how the Vikings will perform after an offseason that seemed intent on trying to make Mike Zimmer’s head explode. I do not expect a cohesive team just yet, so maybe an improving (?) Bengals squad can pull off the slight upset.
For the first time since their move to Vegas, the Raiders will be playing a regular season game in front of fans at Allegiant Stadium. This primetime clash is the exact kind Jon Gruden will have his team up for, just like last year when they shocked the Saints in an early-season Monday Night Football contest. It helps the Raiders’ cause that the Ravens offense is riddled with injuries. Two running backs, starter J.K. Dobbins and backup Justice Hill, are out for the season. No. 1 receiver Hollywood Brown just recently returned to practice after missing a month due to a hamstring injury, and first-round rookie receiver Rashod Bateman will start the season on IR.
So for the third straight season, I predict the Raiders will begin 1-0 … and then, just like in 2019 and 2020, they’ll eventually miss the playoffs.
Christian’s picks
Like Sarah, I think homefield is going to hit differently in 2021 … although I was at Camp Randall Stadium last weekend and a rabid crowd there didn’t seem to spur Graham Mertz to create anything but regret. Even so, thanks to a pretty underwhelming Week 1 slate I’m only rolling with the local team in nine of my 16 picks. This includes taking the Bengals over human bowl of ranch dressing Kirk Cousins (I may regret this, as Minnesota is the least interesting completely unpredictable team in the league) but also forsaking the Colts and Patriots in winnable matchups.
Cowboys at Bucs
Eagles at Falcons
Steelers at Bills
Vikings at Bengals
49ers at Lions
Cardinals at Titans
Seahawks at Colts
Chargers at Washington
Jets at Panthers
Jaguars at Texans
Browns at Chiefs
Dolphins at Patriots
Packers at Saints
Broncos at Giants
Bears at Rams
Ravens at Raiders
Pick I like the most
There will be two, possibly three, games this season in which the Jaguars, fresh off a 1-15 campaign, are tabbed for victory by more than 90 percent of sports media. This is one. The other will be in Week 15 when Jacksonville hosts the Texans. Houston is going through the motions this season thanks to Bill O’Brien’s roster malpractice and Deshaun Watson’s murky future. Poor David Culley inherited a four-win team that promptly got worse this offseason:
Trevor Lawrence, it’s time to set expectations unreasonably high in Florida.
Toughest game to pick
The Cardinals and Titans are my two disappointment choices for 2021. Arizona has yet to prove it can adapt as the season wears on under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans have serious questions left to be answered on defense and a suddenly concerning lack of skill player depth behind Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones (hoooo buddy, what a big three though). I would have put either team on upset watch to start the year … but here they are playing each other, and since I lack the spine to predict a tie, someone’s gotta win.
Ultimately, I flip-flopped and overthought this one, so it’s probably wrong. Still, the Cardinals have created some September magic with Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, going 8-5-1 over their first seven games of the year each of the last two seasons. Those wins haven’t exactly been overwhelming -- and that record includes a 0-1-1 record against Matt Patricia’s Lions -- but Arizona has made some important upgrades in 2021. A solid free agent and draft haul should give the defense the chops to keep this one close before DeAndre Hopkins strings together some heroics to secure a 1-0 start.
Upset game I like the most
I’m with Sarah. Ravens-Raiders in Las Vegas feels a lot like Saints-Raiders in Las Vegas from last season. Fans in Nevada have had to wait patiently to finally watch their borrowed NFL team in person, and the vibe in Allegiant Stadium is gonna be … well, there are tables with bottle service AND an Al Davis eternal flame, so … weird. It’s gonna be weird. And no team is better suited for weirdness than one led by Jon Gruden.
Derek Carr just came off his best season as a pro, and let’s ignore the fact his top three wideouts are Henry Ruggs III, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow. His running back/tight end rotation is strong (even if the blocking is questionable). The defense will be better thanks to the stabilizing presence of veterans like Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Hayward. From a pure talent standpoint, the Ravens are better -- but there’s gonna be a certain level of chaos looming in Las Vegas. That benefits the Raiders.
RVB’s picks
To me, the first week of the season is always the hardest to pick. Teams have at least had a more normal offseason to prepare. Even with six weeks of camp and the preseason, there are always units that haven’t really gelled yet or even a player or two who’s just not feeling it out of the gate. We can look at the list of teams and have a pretty good idea about which ones will be where come January, but some of those teams just won’t be hitting on all cylinders the way they will as the season goes along.
But forces of nature demand our picks, readiness be damned.
Cowboys at Bucs
Eagles at Falcons
Steelers at Bills
Vikings at Bengals
49ers at Lions
Cardinals at Titans
Seahawks at Colts
Chargers at Washington
Jets at Panthers
Jaguars at Texans
Browns at Chiefs
Dolphins at Patriots
Packers at Saints
Broncos at Giants
Bears at Rams
Ravens at Raiders
I’m feeling most confident in these picks
Everyone here feels pretty strongly about picking the Bucs this week. The Niners over the Lions is an easy one too; the Lions have a good shot at 0-17, the chance to beat their own record! If the Bears were starting Justin Fields, that would be a harder game to pick. Maybe they’re just using Andy Dalton as a sacrificial lamb, feeding him to Aaron Donald this week to win favor with the football gods. Not a bad strategy, and it makes the Rams an easy pick to win this one.
To some, the Browns at Chiefs game might be a tough one to pick. The Browns are actually good! And I don’t think last year was a fluke at all. I firmly believe Baker Mayfield reaches new heights this season, buuuuuuut against the Chiefs who are opening the season at home … nope.
The Seahawks opened with an early Sunday game in the Eastern time zone last season too, and they won that one, beating Atlanta. Early games back East aren’t a big deal for the Seahawks anyway. Since 2016, they’re 11-1 in those games.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks
Washington hosting the Chargers is a tough one, and it’s only got a one-point spread in the home team’s favor. I’m hewing to a belief in Washington’s defense standing tall at home, as opposed to buying into my own hype about the Football Team. But this one could go either way.
I guess I’m picking the Titans to beat the Cardinals based on … um, experience? Playing at home? There’s not a lot of defense to be found among either of these teams, and with an over/under of 52.5 point, the second-highest of the week, this one has chaos written all over it.
Upset pick
The Steelers are 6.5-point underdogs to the Bills this week. That feels like someone’s underrating Pittsburgh here, or just trying to lure some of the handle away from Buffalo. I’ll probably get burned on this, but if Ben Roethlisberger has just like 10 percent more arm strength than he did last year, this team’s passing attack is going to be hard to stop. I could very well be overestimating the strength of their offensive line too -- they’ve got four rookies starting this week. As much as it pains me to say it, I think this team is going to be a lot better this season.