The Raiders are the perfect AFC West team
And our picks for Thursday night.
Through one week, two NFL divisions boast nothing but 1-0 teams. One is the NFC West, which we’ve been propping up as the league’s toughest locale all summer. The other is the AFC West, which did everything its cross-league counterpart did, but wackier.
The Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders all beat 2020 playoff teams in stirring fourth-quarter comeback victories (the Broncos did not, but only because they were playing Daniel Jones and the hapless Giants, who led for only eight early minutes of their opening day affair).
The Chiefs did what the Chiefs do — score points in demoralizing clusters — while the Browns did what the Browns do — flail incompetently in the face of success — to propel Kansas City from a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to a three-point win. The Chargers kept Justin Herbert’s star trajectory on course while overcoming the Washington defense and another surprising effort from fill-in extraordinaire Taylor Heinicke.
And the Raiders … oh god, let’s talk about the Raiders.
The Raiders are simply a random event generator in silver uniforms
Las Vegas thrives on chaos. I am referring to the city itself but also a franchise that arrived in Nevada when a man with the dead eyes and haircut of a restless toddler’s least-loved doll somehow grifted Sheldon Adelman to trade a shit-filled aging Oakland Coliseum for a $2 billion shrine in the desert. A franchise that saw Jon Gruden’s overexcited analysis from the Monday Night Football booth and decided “yes, this man who spends his days annoying college quarterbacks and hasn’t coached in a decade deserves $100 million.” A franchise whose draft strategy seems predicated in flustering Mel Kiper every spring.
Most seasons, the Raiders have climbed from the primordial ooze of Gruden and Mike Mayock’s roster building to scrape the face of god. In 2018 this meant winning games that, 75 percent of the time, got the opposing head coach fired (Hue Jackson, Steve Wilks, Vance Joseph). Last year, it came via upsets over the 12-win Saints and 14-win Chiefs — the latter on the road in one of the game’s toughest environments. In Week 1, it meant upending the Ravens on a night when their win probability crept into the 90 percent range late in the fourth quarter:
Las Vegas sent Baltimore to 0-1 behind an improved defense and some magic from Derek Carr, who remains one of the game’s most underrated players despite Peyton Manning’s shade. The Raiders quarterback, his back against the wall thanks to blocking that allowed him to be hit or sacked 10 times and limited his running backs to 45 yards on 16 carries, was Gruden’s rocket fuel Monday night. He led three straight scoring drives to tie the game at the end of regulation, then was the difference as the Raiders contained their own overtime meltdown to turn a potential Chernobyl into a mere Three Mile Island.
Carr had two modes when it came to his decision making Monday night. He was either throwing to Darren Waller (19 targets) or someone the Ravens *weren’t* double-covering (everyone else: 33 targets). Carr also had two modes to how he threw his passes late Monday night. He either whipped wound-up lasers down the field or lofted softly falling feathers into the hands of rapidly adjusting wideouts. The former worked when launching a must-have rifle shot downfield with less than 20 seconds left on the clock in a 27-24 ballgame:
It was less useful when Carr’s third-and-goal cannon shot in overtime slipped through Willie Snead’s hands, off a Raven defender’s helmet, and into Anthony Averitt’s hands for an interception that left the quarterback on the turf to nurse possibly the purest expression of betrayal in NFL history:
Those passes were overshadowed by the feathery touch he put on the ball in huge situations. Carr’s offensive line allowed him to get hit constantly while simultaneously getting flagged five different times (six, if you count fullback Alec Ingold). Somehow, in the biggest moments of Week 1, this worked to Vegas’ advantage. He here is delivering what was very nearly the game winner on third down as he runs for his life in a direction that’s usually anathema to downfield passing:
Here’s the actual game winner, which proved to be the perfect counter to Baltimore’s aggression:
And just like that, the Raiders are 1-0 with a win over a team led by the 2019 MVP that hasn’t missed the postseason since 2017. Will this last? No, of course not. Hell, the chaos nearly consumed Vegas before it could cash the check Carr was hastily scribbling from a crowded backfield.
Gruden, having seen enough of what could go wrong with his offense, attempted to trot his field goal unit out for a not-automatic 44-yard attempt one play prior. This earned a delay of game penalty when it turned out his call was so surprising not even his special teams unit was ready for it. That brought Carr back out onto the field, and instead of a fumble-six or a walk-off 69-yard safety or the earth opening up and swallowing both teams whole, the Raiders simply won by calling a pass play the Ravens weren’t expecting.
Gruden’s Raiders teams are poorly planned rocket launches. In the event he gets off the launchpad any given week without bursting into flames, you quickly realize there’s no reentry plan. The harsh atmosphere of the AFC West waits to flash fry his team. Or sometimes he expressly tells the world he’s skydiving without a parachute, as last year’s near-loss to the Jets and 37-POINT LOSS TO THE FOUR-WIN FALCONS proved. If the Raiders are in fact the brutish Mad Max types the fans in the Black Hole strive to be, consistency is the gasoline they so badly covet and so rarely obtain.
All the Raiders have to show for their head-scratching victories and even more frustrating defeats is a 20-29 record in three-plus years and zero playoff wins since 2003. Yet, no one can pencil Las Vegas — the team with the often-abhorrent secondary, suddenly glitchy blocking, and dice roll of a pass rush — as a win when it pops up on the schedule. You can only hope to survive the Raiders, and then your best bet may be a quiet prayer to the football gods.
Because you know Jon Gruden is gonna step back and let them take over, predictability be damned. — CD
Thursday Night Football picks: Giants vs. Washington
The first true Thursday Night Football game is upon us, both in name and in spirit. (Last week’s kickoff game, despite falling on Thursday, was technically a Sunday Night Football broadcast.) The Washington Football Team will host the Giants in the first NFC East clash of the season, so naturally we will all be subjected to it in primetime.
Don’t expect a high-scoring affair. Both teams are 0-1 and failed to get much going on offense last week. WTF is a slight favorite, though it will be starting Taylor Heinicke at quarterback following Ryan Fitzpatrick’s hip injury.
Here at the Post Route, we’re divided. Christian and RVB picked Washington, but Sarah’s holding out hope for the Giants.
Why I picked the Giants: Let me preface this by noting that my subpar history of TNF picks should not inspire confidence in the Giants. This also feels like a game that no matter who I pick to win, the other team will end up with the victory.
I vacillated between the Giants and Washington before ultimately going with the former because of Daniel Jones’ weird dominance over the latter. In his young career, the third-year quarterback is 4-0 against Washington (and 2-5 against the rest of the NFC East), meaning half of his wins as a starter have come in this matchup. He’s thrown for 901 yards and eight touchdowns in those four games, with a 100 passer rating (15.7 higher than his career average). Even stranger still, Jones — as deft as Michelangelo with a paintbrush when it comes to the art of fumbling the ball — has never lost a fumble against WFT.
Granted, the pitiful state of his offensive line doesn’t make me optimistic that Jones can continue that uncharacteristic streak against the fiercest defensive line in the NFL. But until Washington can prove it can beat him, then I’ll give Jones’ team the edge in this rivalry. — SH
Why I picked the Football Team: They’re playing the Giants. -- CD
Be sure to check back Friday for the rest of our Week 2 picks.
If you pick the Giants, why does NFLPICKWATCH show that you picked Washington?