Super Bowl 58, a play in three acts

The Chiefs' win over the 49ers played out like a story (but not one that the NFL scripted).

It’s not often that I go into an NFL Sunday with an idea of what I’m going to write about in this newsletter. Usually, I just let the action unfold and see what emerges. 

This Super Bowl was a little different. I had a vague concept that I thought would work, but it hit a snag before the game even kicked off. Back in August, the NFL embraced the tongue-in-cheek (at least for those of us who have an ounce of media literacy) conspiracy theory that its seasons were scripted with a series of funny ads. I had maybe wanted to riff on that joke with a look at how the Super Bowl was similar to a movie for whichever team won. 

Then, I came across articles that had already played around with that notion, and I didn’t want to be redundant. 

Not a big deal, since I could just wait for the game itself to reveal a different approach I could take. Toward the end of the third quarter, I thought I had my new theme. At that point, the Chiefs had grabbed their first lead of the night, and I was fairly confident — even more so than when I made my pick — that they were going to win. It was as if this Super Bowl matchup encapsulated their 2023: They overcame sloppy mistakes and eventually got their act together at the right time. The 2023 Chiefs in a nutshell. 

Well, there ended up being two problems with that plan. First, Patrick Mahomes called this game “a microcosm of their whole season” during the Lombardi Trophy presentation, and it kinda felt like the “I worked on this story and he just tweeted it out” meme. It also reminded me of when Josh Allen did something similar to me, but I forged ahead with the topic anyway. That happened with my Week 18 recap, which was also about how one game had summed up the regular season for a handful of teams. That was barely a month ago and I had already forgotten! 

So, it was time to switch gears again. I will spare you all the rest of the minute details about my writing process, but the number “three” kept jumping out to me. It was the Chiefs’ third Super Bowl win in the Mahomes era, and he had trailed by double digits in all three. It was Kyle Shanahan’s third Super Bowl loss, and his team had led by double digits in all three. 

That led me to, appropriately, my third idea for this newsletter: how Super Bowl 58 followed the traditional three-act structure of a story.  

Act I: A slow start ends on a muffed punt

You know how sometimes a book or TV show doesn’t grab your attention right away, but a friend will tell you to “stick with it because it gets better”? Well, that was kind of the tale of this Super Bowl. 

The slow period was a good chunk of the game: the first half and most of the third quarter. To be clear, I didn’t find the contest to be boring, not in the way that the Rams vs. Patriots slugfest five years ago was, or even all the blowouts from the late-80s/early-90s were. 

But if you were looking for points, the first 42 minutes of this matchup were lacking in that department. There were two reasons for that. First, the 49ers and Chiefs each had their share of miscues early on. In the first half, both teams fumbled once and combined for nine penalties (eight accepted).  

Second, per the “exposition” part of the three-act structure, the Super Bowl 58 “world” had to be established in Act 1. And it was with one apparent trend: These defenses had come to play. That much was obvious on the opening drive, when the Niners were marching right down the field until one of the unsung heroes on Kansas City’s defense — second-year linebacker Leo Chenal — caused the normally sure-handed Christian McCaffrey to cough up the ball. San Francisco’s defense responded by forcing a quick three-and-out. 

That was the first of 10 punts in those first 42 minutes, ending drives that all lasted a mere three or four plays. Only one touchdown was scored in that time, and it was thrown by a wide receiver. With a little over four minutes to go before halftime, Shanahan dug into his bag of tricks and called on Jauan Jennings, who was once a highly rated QB recruit. With Nick Bolton bearing down on him, Jennings threw across the field to McCaffrey, who turned on the jets for a 21-yard touchdown. 

The Chiefs avoided a fourth straight quarter without scoring when they put together a 13-play field goal drive before the end of the first half. However, it’s possible they might not have managed those three points if Dre Greenlaw hadn’t been injured minutes earlier. The 49ers linebacker suffered a devastating non-contact Achilles tear, and in his absence, Mahomes started attacking the middle of the field. 

Still, SF’s defense came out of the locker room with the same intensity as it had in the first half. On KC’s first possession, Ji'Ayir Brown picked off Mahomes for the quarterback’s first turnover of this postseason. The Niners couldn’t capitalize off of Mahomes’ rare mistake, though, and we were back to punt city. 

Funnily enough, it was one of those punts — the 10th and final one — that changed the momentum of the game. Until that point, the 49ers’ special teams unit, their biggest weakness, had brought their A game. Rookie kicker Jake Moody nailed a 55-yard field goal in the second quarter (which was a Super Bowl record for only 20 minutes of game time because Harrison Butker broke it with a 57-yarder in the third quarter). On four occasions, punter Mitch Wishnowsky and the coverage team didn’t allow Mahomes and Co. to start past the 20-yard line, and once they pinned the Chiefs at the 2-yard line. 

But it was the other punt team — the punt return team — that messed up. After another Chiefs three-and-out, Tommy Townsend punted a good but innocent-seeming ball … which inadvertently hit the 49ers’ Darrell Luter. As a result, return man Ray-Ray McCloud had to try to recover the ball, but he couldn’t pick it up cleanly and the Chiefs pounced on it.

That turning point led right into the second act. 

Act 2: A back-and-forth battle ensues 

The second act is all about the rising action, or to put it simply, the conflict that builds up to the climax. 

After the muffed punt, the Chiefs needed only one play to take their first lead in Las Vegas. Mahomes connected with Marquez Valdes-Scantling — who was clutch in the playoffs after a tough regular season — to end KC’s touchdown drought. And just like that, their win probability went from 27 percent to 55 percent. 

The Niners still had plenty of fight left in them, though. They were moving the ball again and had reached the red zone, but then they found themselves in a fourth-and-3 situation. Rather than kick a field goal to knot the score at 13-all, Shanahan opted to go for it. His decision was risky; not only had the 49ers been pretty bad on third downs (they finished 3-of-12), but also for the discourse surrounding Shanahan’s game management.

Fortunately for Shanahan, the Niners converted when George Kittle, on his first catch of the evening, stretched out for the first down. Two plays later, Jennings hauled in Brock Purdy’s lone touchdown pass and became just the second player to ever catch and throw for a touchdown in the same Super Bowl. That was also the 49ers’ first score since the second quarter.

Unfortunately for Shanahan, his special teams problems reared their ugly head again. Moody missed his extra point attempt and what should have been a four-point lead stayed at three points. 

On that note, the Chiefs and 49ers continued to trade scores after that, but all three final drives of regulation ended in a field goal. Both teams benefited from their offensive stars making plays and the defense making key stops, but the efforts were more pronounced for Kansas City. 

Notably, Mahomes started targeting Travis Kelce on a regular basis, no doubt taking advantage of Greenlaw being out. In the first half, Kelce recorded one target, one catch, one yard, and one viral moment when he ran into Andy Reid and screamed at him. After halftime, he came up with eight catches for 92 yards; his 93-yard outing made him the leading receiver of this Super Bowl.  

The defense also started ramping up the pressure on Purdy. In the first half, they pressured him on 35 percent of his dropbacks, according to a graphic I saw on ESPN. After halftime, that number jumped to 50 percent.

Purdy played a mostly solid game but 1) he’s not near Mahomes’ level and 2) he couldn’t quite deliver a huge play when the Niners needed it most. Take, for instance, on third down with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. A first down could have more or less won the game. Instead, Purdy had a bunch of Chiefs defenders in his face and quickly threw a bad ball that had no hope of being completed. The 49ers settled for the field goal and then had to give the ball back, with 1:53 remaining, to Mahomes. 

With a mix of scrambles and short passes, Mahomes guided Kansas City into scoring territory. Fred Warner had Kelce covered for the Chiefs’ one last shot at the end zone, forcing Reid to turn to Butker for the game-tying field goal with three seconds left. Since the muffed punt, this was the fifth time that the lead had changed or the score was tied.

And for only the second time in NFL history, the Super Bowl was headed to overtime. The first time, of course, came when Shanahan was an offensive coordinator, facing one dynasty (the Patriots) and a generational quarterback who had mounted a comeback (Tom Brady). The question now was if the Chiefs could officially declare themselves a dynasty and put Mahomes into the GOAT conversation, or if Shanahan could finally win the big game.

Act 3: A legacy is cemented

There was one major change to the postseason overtime rules since the Falcons’ 28-3 collapse against the Patriots. This time, both teams were guaranteed at least one possession (and possibly more, if the game was still tied afterward). 

The 49ers won the coin toss and elected to receive the ball, which was a little confusing to college football fans who are used to seeing teams choosing to take the ball second. I didn’t think much of Shanahan’s decision at the time, though, because I figured he wanted to give his defense a rest and hopefully get Mahomes out of a rhythm. 

In hindsight, I should have joined the chorus of those who were booing Shanahan’s choice. Not even because it didn’t work out, but because of his explanation. Shanahan could’ve said he wanted to give his defense a break and I would’ve understood. Yet his reasoning flew in the face of game theory and the actual situation at hand (that you are going up against Mahomes, who is deadly in these scenarios). 

And it looked even worse afterward for Shanahan when his players didn’t seem to understand the overtime strategy while Reid’s players said they had discussed it in training camp and prepared for it for two weeks. 

In one sense, that was how this overtime played out: Kansas City’s coaches had the right game plan and the players who they knew could execute it. They were ready for this moment because they had been coached to be ready. 

The Chiefs’ biggest play on defense came halfway through the extra period. McCaffrey had been cooking on the drive until the KC defense stopped him for no gain on second-and-4 inside the 10-yard line. On third down, the 49ers opted to throw it, but oops, no one on the OL blocked Chris Jones, who quietly saved a second touchdown of the night.  

The 49ers kicked the field goal and just needed, per Shanahan’s theory, to keep Mahomes out of the end zone. Did anyone, other than I guess Shanahan, believe that could happen?

For the most part, the San Francisco defense had done a decent job in the Super Bowl against the run, better than in the team’s previous playoff games. The Niners held Isiah Pacheco to 59 yards on 18 carries (3.3 ypc) and also forced him to fumble once. On third-and-1 on the Chiefs’ first OT series, they stuffed him to set up a fourth down at KC’s own 34-yard line. 

Here’s where I note that SF’s defense did not do a great job when Mahomes took off scrambling. He ended up as the Chiefs’ leading rusher with nine carries for 66 yards (7.3 ypc), including the fourth-down conversion and a 19-yard scramble on third-and-1 minutes later. 

The final part of the three-act structure brings us the climax and resolution, whether we know what’s coming or we don’t. I was pretty sure that Mahomes would throw the game-winning touchdown, but I didn’t expect it to be to Mecole Hardman¹ — or that Reid would go back to the “Corn Dog” play that won the Chiefs the Super Bowl last year. 

So the story ends with a thrilling, if inevitable conclusion. The Chiefs’ journey to this title wasn’t the same as the first two, however. Their path to the Super Bowl was the most difficult in NFL history, per DVOA, and their defense was a beast the entire year and especially in the postseason. 

And though it might feel like Shanahan will always come up just short of a championship, it’s important to remember that not that long ago, Reid was in the same shoes. People questioned if he would ever have the juice and game management skills to win a Super Bowl. 

No one has to question that anymore. Reid and Mahomes were already two of the greats before Sunday night, and they cemented their legacy with a third Super Bowl victory in five years.

1. Maybe Hardman knew it was coming, just like he had a psychic vision in the preseason of beating the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Of course, he was with the Jets at the time.