The hard-to-decide Super Bowl 58 pick

I've gone back and forth on the 49ers and Chiefs for almost two weeks.

At some point during the regular season, I considered the possibility of a Chiefs-49ers rematch in the Super Bowl, and I knew which team I would pick if it came to that: the 49ers. 

Then the postseason came along and the Chiefs flipped a switch and became the Chiefs again. So when this matchup became official two weeks ago, I changed my mind and decided I would pick Kansas City. 

I have since gone back and forth about a dozen times. Kyle Shanahan is due! But Super Bowl rematches between head coaches always favor the previous winner!

Vegas likes the 49ers! But Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is a monster!

The 49ers did beat the Kirk Cousins curse, which no team had ever done before. But the Chiefs are wearing red and traveling west!

The only way I was going to make up my mind once and for all is if I just sat down and wrote out all my thoughts. If you’ll indulge me, I went on a long ramble below so I could form my conclusion. If you’d like to just skip to my pick, I can’t blame you. Scroll down a long way, and you’ll find it at the end. (You can also check out Christian’s pick at FTW.)

Otherwise, strap in and let’s talk about how each team can win Super Bowl 58.

Why the 49ers will win

The Niners have a lot going for them in this matchup. Here are a few reasons why they could win their first Super Bowl in three decades.

They have a playmaker advantage on offense

I don’t want to say that the 49ers have a talent edge over the Chiefs on the offensive side of the ball. After all, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, two future Hall of Famers — one at the most important position on the field, and the other being his favorite target.

If you look at all the pieces surrounding the quarterback, though, the Niners have the more electric group. Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing this season. Not just in total yards, but also in 10+ yard runs, yards before contact, and yards after contact. On the other hand, KC’s defense gave up 3.4 yards after contact on a per carry basis, which was third-worst in the league.  

I mentioned the other week how frustrated I was that the Ravens didn’t run the ball more against the Chiefs, which was their defense’s biggest weakness this season. When Kansas City had six or fewer men in the box, the Ravens handed the ball off to a running back one single dang time. I doubt that will happen with the 49ers, who averaged 7.2 yards per carry when facing that same defensive alignment.

Kelce is on a tear this postseason and grabs most of the headlines, but he, perhaps modestly, referred to George Kittle as the best tight end in the NFL. This season, Kittle was certainly the most productive, leading all tight ends with 1,020 receiving yards — albeit, in one more game than Kelce. Kittle also ranked first at the position in yards per reception (15.7) second in tight end touchdowns (6). Half of those touchdowns came against man coverage, which the Chiefs deploy fairly often. 

Kelce did top Kittle this season in one major category: number of catches (93 vs. 65). That’s largely because for most of the year, Kelce was Mahomes’ only reliable receiver. That’s not the case in San Francisco, where Brock Purdy can get the ball to any number of trustworthy options.  

His No. 1 receiver this season was Brandon Aiyuk, who totaled a career-high 1,342 yards on 75 receptions. He also, famously, made a heads-up play in the NFC title game when he snatched a ball that was deflected off of Kindle Vildor’s facemask. That 51-yard completion was arguably the turning point of the evening. However, San Francisco’s leading receiver in that pivotal showdown was Deebo Samuel, with eight catches for 89 yards. When the Niners were down double digits at halftime, Samuel relayed one message: “get me the damn ball.” They did, and they won. That’s often been the result when Samuel’s in the lineup. Earlier this season, he left a matchup against the Browns with an injury and then missed the next two weeks. The 49ers lost all three games.

Purdy can also rely on McCaffrey and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — the latter of whom made a tightrope catch along the sideline against the Lions — to haul in his passes. As good as the Chiefs have been defensively this season, those are a lot of weapons for them to keep track of, especially when Kyle Shanahan’s offense is not the same as it was the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl. Now, it’s a “good luck guessing what we’re going to do on this play” kind of offense.

And while I would never suggest Purdy is on Mahomes’ level, the “Lee Harvey Oswald lookalike” did, technically, put up better stats than the two-time MVP did. That’s less of a story of the two quarterbacks and more about their surrounding cast, though. Four players on Purdy’s offense were named first-team All-Pros in 2023: McCaffrey, Kittle, Juszczyk, and left tackle Trent Williams. Only one member of Mahomes’ offense earned the honor: left guard Joe Thuney, who likely won’t be able to play in the Super Bowl.

They have a star advantage on defense

The Chiefs have a couple of household names on offense, but the Niners have the better overall offense. The opposite might be true on defense, where Kansas City ranks several spots higher in weighted DVOA (a stat that gives heavier importance to recent games). 

Leading the way for San Francisco’s defense is the superstar duo of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, who were both major contributors in their first Super Bowl appearance. Bosa sacked Mahomes once and also forced him to fumble. Mahomes got the ball back, but one play later, he was picked off by Warner. The 49ers scored a touchdown on their ensuing possession. 

Today, Bosa is still the Niners’ best disruptor, while Warner and fellow linebacker Dre Greenlaw continue to patrol the middle of the field, an area where this unit ranks No. 1 against the pass. Bosa has been responsible for all of the defense’s sacks this postseason, as well as nine of its 11 QB hits. Warner has led the way in tackles and TFL, and Greenlaw has hauled in two interceptions. 

The 49ers will either need those guys to take over the game, or for a couple of their less heralded defenders to step up. 

Either is possible. Warner and Greenlaw can help keep Kelce in relative check like they did four years ago. Then, Kelce had six catches for 43 yards, among his least productive outings that season (and this time, Mahomes won’t have Tyreek Hill to pick up the slack). This season, the linebacking pair has seven pass breakups and six interceptions combined.

More often than not, Bosa will be lined up against the oft-penalized Jawaan Taylor. The right tackle, who will be making his Super Bowl debut, has allowed a pressure rate of 6.8 percent. Bosa has been bringing the pressure at a higher clip than ever this season, with a pass-rush win rate of 22.3 percent. 

But most likely, Andy Reid will try to pull out all the stops to neutralize Bosa. That means his teammates, whether that’s one or all of the underperforming Javon Hargrave, Chase Young, and Randy Gregory, will need to bring their A game. They have done that, intermittently in the regular season but not this postseason; Young in particular was ripped for a low-effort play against the Lions (though he did play better in the second half). It’s also possible that moment served as a wake-up call for the, uh, young Young. He knows he has to show up in the Super Bowl, the biggest game of his life — especially when he’s a free agent looking for a hefty payday. 

In short, the 49ers have enough defensive players who are capable of slowing down Kansas City’s offense, which isn’t as high-powered as it once was. That is, if they can rise to the occasion. 

They have proven they can rally this postseason

During the regular season, one knock on Purdy was that he hadn’t led the 49ers to a comeback win. Granted, the Niners usually enjoyed a comfortable lead in the second half, but in three of their losses, Purdy had a chance to engineer a fourth-quarter drive to tie or win the game. He came up short each time. 

Luckily for San Francisco, that has not been true in the postseason. In fact, both Purdy and the team as a whole have shined in the second half. Purdy had the best QBR in the NFL this season at 72.7, but that number has dropped to 59 in the first half of his playoff matchups. In the second half, his QBR has skyrocketed to 91. And in both of the 49ers’ postseason victories, Purdy has been credited with a game-winning drive.

The defense has also taken it up a notch in the fourth quarter. In the Divisional Round, the Packers scored 15 points in the third quarter to regain the lead. Then in the fourth quarter, SF’s defense shut them out, helping pave way for the comeback win. In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions couldn’t be stopped in the first half. After halftime, the Niners held them out of the end zone until their final possession. By that time, the rally was complete. 

Both times, the 49ers defied history. Their win over the Packers was the first time under Shanahan that they had overcome a 5+point deficit in the fourth quarter. Their win over the Lions was the largest second-half comeback ever in the Conference Championship Round.

On the other sideline, the Chiefs have had more opportunities to mount comebacks this season — and often couldn’t. In four of their five one-score losses, they had a chance to tie or regain the lead and failed each time. Mahomes did record two game-winning drives in the regular season — against the Jets and Bengals — though in each one, the drive in question 1) came early in the fourth quarter and 2) ended in a field goal. 

In the postseason, Kansas City also had a go-ahead drive at the start of the fourth quarterback against Buffalo. But unlike the 49ers, the Chiefs haven’t needed to score in the final few minutes to pull out the victory. I don’t have any doubts that Mahomes and Co. could, considering that’s how they won their two recent Super Bowls. 

However, the 49ers have proven, to themselves most of all, that they’re up to the task as well.

Why the Chiefs will win

No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls in almost 20 years, but the Chiefs can end that streak.

Mahomes and Kelce are dialed in — and their improved play might be contagious

Overall, Mahomes and Kelce each had his worst statistical season since the former took over as KC’s starting quarterback in 2018. There are exceptions. Mahomes registered the highest completion percentage of his career this year, somewhat miraculously considering he led all quarterbacks in dropped pass percentage. Kelce also logged his highest catch percentage in the Mahomes era. 

Still, both saw their numbers dip in a season when the offense sometimes lacked cohesion. As mentioned, 6.9 percent of Mahomes’s passes were dropped in the regular season. Relatedly, he recorded a career high in interceptions (14) and interception rate (2.3), as well as a career low in passing success rate (48.2), adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.9), and passer rating (92.6). None of those are downright bad — except for the dropped passes — but they aren’t Mahomes-esque, either. 

Meanwhile, Kelce struggled with injuries and, as a result, consistency. This season, when he was by far the top option, Kelce managed only five games with 70 or more receiving yards. That was the fewest in his time with Mahomes — most other years, he’s had 10 such games. 

Throughout the postseason, however, the two have looked like their usual selves with their unbeatable chemistry. That’s hardly a surprise, given their past dominance in January and February. When the stakes are raised, these two know how to dig deep. 

Kelce has put up 70+ receiving yards in each week of the playoffs, including an 11-catch, 116-yard performance against the Ravens’ top-rated defense. He has also brought in three touchdowns, just two fewer than he had during the regular season. 

Mahomes’ stats have been better across the board in the postseason. Most notably, he hasn’t thrown any interceptions — or been charged with any turnover-worthy plays. (Purdy, on the other hand, has five such plays.) Despite them winning two Super Bowls together, both guys have made it clear they want more.

The Mahomes-Kelce connection has been the rising tide that lifts all boats of this offense. The Chiefs’ receivers have fed off their leadership and have only dropped two passes once the regular season ended. They’ve also come up clutch when, in those same situations earlier this season, they would have mishandled the football or turned it over. (The Chiefs haven’t lost the turnover battle at all in the playoffs. During the season, their turnover differential was -11, fourth-worst in the NFL. In the postseason, it’s been +2.) 

Two receivers in particular have come through lately: rookie Rashee Rice, who has 20 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown in his first taste of the postseason, and veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS’ stat line doesn’t pop off the page — five receptions for 108 yards in these last three matchups — but his catches have come at critical times, like when he gained chunks of yards in a tight game against the Bills or sealed the win over the Ravens.

If Mahomes can’t get the ball to Kelce, then he now knows he can put trust in other members of his receiving corps. Or, his running backs. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Isiah Pacheco. While he has grown into a capable receiver, he’s expected to do his damage on the ground. 

Pacheco is one of the hardest backs in the league to take down, with his “determined” running style. He’s scored in all three playoff games, including the go-ahead touchdown against the Bills, and has averaged 84.7 yards per outing, or about 20 more than he did during the regular season. He should be a valuable tool against a 49ers defense that has had difficulties stopping the run all year. Recently, the Lions averaged 6.3 yards per carry, and the Packers averaged 4.9.

This Kansas City offense isn’t as scary as it’s been in years past, but right now, the unit is working together and firing on all cylinders, with Mahomes and Kelce leading the way.

They have the better defense AND special teams

While the Chiefs have finally found their rhythm on offense again, the defense has also been lights out— and has been all season. This is a young defense, but it’s also the best defense that Mahomes has had yet in Kansas City. 

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been stymying NFL offenses for years and has three Super Bowl rings to his name. The first came with the Giants during the 2007 season, when he helped shock the then-undefeated Patriots. The next two came with the Chiefs, though Mahomes was the obvious star on both occasions. 

That doesn’t have to be the case on Sunday. This postseason, KC’s defense has surrendered just 10 second-half points to three of the highest-scoring offenses in 2023. If Spags’ unit had been flying under the radar before then, it certainly wasn’t by the time the AFC title game was over. 

The longtime DC earned glowing praise for his defense’s performance in shutting down MVP Lamar Jackson, and deservedly so. He opted to bring more pressure than usual and had faith in his secondary to be able to cover Jackson’s weapons one-on-one. That worked, especially because the Ravens strangely got away from their running game. And even when, for example, L'Jarius Sneed was beat for a big gain, he then made up for it soon after with a game-changing forced fumble. 

I don’t know what Spagnuolo’s game plan will be for the Super Bowl. It won’t be the same as his masterclass in Baltimore. The 49ers have better receiving options than the Ravens did, and Purdy has feasted against the blitz all year. It won’t be the same as what he did against the 49ers in Super Bowl 54, either. With Derrick Nnadi out due to an injury, Chris Jones is the only member of the defense who played in that Super Bowl. 

But I think that Spags will probably disguise his blitzes to try to confuse Purdy and throw him off his game. If that can force Purdy into making mistakes, then the Chiefs will be sitting pretty. The same, too, if they can force field goal tries rather than giving up touchdowns.

The last time they met in the Super Bowl, the special teams battle was a push. This time, KC has the obvious advantage, especially at kicker. 

Niners kicker Jake Moody has been hit or miss as a rookie. He made 84 percent of his field goals, which ranked 20th in the NFL this season. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker ranked fourth at 94.3 percent. Butker has also been in this kind of high-pressure situation before, and he delivered. In last year’s Super Bowl, he made the game-winning field goal.

Overall, the Chiefs had the sixth-best special teams unit this season, per DVOA. The 49ers came in at No. 25. 

They’ve been here before

You can’t really quantify experience, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Chiefs suddenly started to play their best football in the postseason. They did so because they know they need to reach that extra gear to win a Super Bowl. 

After he shattered his helmet against the Dolphins, Mahomes shrugged it off because “it’s playoff time.” Mahomes also said that as the games get bigger, Kelce plays better, and that mindset has rubbed off on the entire locker room. 

The Niners are motivated to “right the wrongs” from their last Super Bowl appearance, but they don’t know firsthand what it takes to actually win the game. The Chiefs do — and they also know what it feels like to lose. That loss to the Bucs a few years ago still sticks with Mahomes, who admitted he wants to avoid that feeling of failure more than he wants to win.

There’s a certain calmness that the Chiefs have exuded in the lead-up to the Super Bowl; again, nothing that I can quantify, so this is all vibes based. Yet I can’t help but notice how the 49ers seem to have complained more in Vegas, about the practice field and about mysterious fire alarms. They have every right to be unhappy with both situations, but are they letting those bumps in the road distract them from the task at hand?

I don’t know. But I do know I haven’t questioned the Chefs’ focus once.

My Super Bowl pick

A few weeks ago, before the Chiefs faced the Bills in the Divisional Round, I had a dream that Kansas City won the Super Bowl again, a feeling in my sleep state that simply left me resigned.

I do not think my dreams can tell the future — another recent one involved a scenario that I can best describe as a mix between Station Eleven and The Langoliers, though I will leave it at that. However, I think my subconscious was reminding me to not count the Chiefs out. 

Everything they’ve done since that dream has confirmed my suspicions that they’re in the zone. The 49ers were the better team for most of the season, but the Chiefs have been much stronger lately. The Niners have been up-and-down this postseason, and Purdy has been shaky. And if this comes down to quarterback play, I know I have to side with Mahomes. And if this comes down to coaching, I have to take Reid over Shanahan, at least until the latter proves he can win in the Super Bowl.

I think this will be a close game, and I’m finally getting excited to see what happens on the field. Even if it ends like it did four years ago. 

My pick: Chiefs 30, 49ers 27