So about those predictions we made ...
Some of our preseason guesses are holding up! Plus, Week 7 picks and the Vikings' rebuild
Preseason predictions we’ve been most wrong about so far
When we wrote up our preseason predictions in early September, we made two promises: 1) that we’d check back periodically on them and 2) that we’d be very, very wrong.
Now that every team has played at least five games, it’s a good time to revisit our projections to see how they’re panning out.
Some of them look promising. Our AFC and NFC champion picks (including the Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, and Saints) are all on the right track.
For others, it’s too soon to tell. The Chargers are indeed 1-4 — and are talented enough to still make the postseason, if they can manage to get out of their own way. The Cardinals are 4-2, but they’re also a bit hard to figure out. Maybe they’re playoff-bound, or maybe, as we thought, they’re a year off from breaking through. The Jaguars are averaging 20.8 points per game, more than the 17.5 we guessed. However, that number’s a bit inflated by their offensive competency in the first two weeks of the season. In the last four weeks, their scoring average drops to 17 points per game. (Either way, still way better than the Jets!)
The rest of the predictions have proven to be, just as we warned, way off the mark. Let’s take a closer look at those and laugh at ourselves in the process.
The team that will live up to last year’s hype (our pick: Dallas Cowboys)
I don’t know what has taken me this long, but that’s it. I’m done. Don’t let me ever buy into the Cowboys’ preseason hype ever again. Even before Dak Prescott was lost for the season, the Cowboys were once again the league’s biggest disappointment. Then came their debacle against the Cardinals at home on Monday Night Football, a game they lost 38-10 despite Kyler Murray completing just nine passes.
As it turns out, a coaching change didn’t fix the Cowboys:
But their problems are bigger, and deeper, than Mike McCarthy and the rest of the coaches.
The week Mitchell Trubisky gets benched (our pick: Week 8)
We gave Trubisky entirely too much credit. Despite a perfect record as a starting QB this year, he ended up getting sidelined halfway through a Week 3 game against the Falcons. Nick Foles came off the bench to lead the Bears to a comeback win and has remained the starter since.
Stats-wise, Foles hasn’t played all that better than Trubisky did, but Foles has the edge in areas that aren’t always noticeable to fans: seeing the entire field, reading a defense, leading in the huddle, etc. Trubisky’s in his fourth year in the league and should have shown more improvement in these facets of the game. He hasn’t, and that’s why he’s the backup in Chicago now.
The NFL’s sack leader (Our pick: Chandler Jones)
There’s no predicting injuries in the NFL. Prior to the season, Jones hadn’t suffered a major injury since a hip ailment caused him to sit out six games with the Patriots in 2014. In his first four seasons with the Cardinals, he had yet to miss a game.
Then he tore his bicep in Week 5 (against the Jets, to add insult to injury) and is out for the rest of the season. Still, our forecast wasn’t looking so hot before that. Jones ended the season with only one sack, which came all the way back in Week 1 against the 49ers.
Aaron Donald failed to notch a sack against the 49ers last week, but the Rams’ all-world defender is the NFL’s current sack leader, with 7.5. If he maintains that pace, he’ll end up with 20 sacks this season, just a half-sack off his career high.
The most 9-7 team (Our pick: Tennessee Titans)
The Titans are one of three remaining unbeaten teams. Unless the last two-thirds of the season goes horribly off the rails, the Titans will have finally broken their 9-7 cycle. See, sometimes change is possible. — SH
The Vikings are punting on 2020 (and it’s the right decision)
Minnesota acquired defensive end Yannick Ngakoue on August 31. His tenure as a Viking didn’t last until Halloween.
The former Jaguar is now a Baltimore Raven, adding another intimidating piece to a defense tasked with stopping explosive offenses out of Nashville and Kansas City in hopes of delivering Lamar Jackson’s first playoff win. His legacy in purple is impressive, given the timespan. In six weeks and five starts, Ngakoue recorded five sacks, five more tackles for loss, and seven quarterback hits. He ranks among the top 10 defensive linemen in the NFL in both quarterback hurries and total pressures.
So why is Minnesota writing off his contract as a bad investment? Hoooo buddy, so many reasons.
Trading Ngakoue now is a mild balm in a torched season.
Here’s how the Ngakoue deals worked out for the Vikings:
Minnesota out (to Jaguars): 2021 second-round pick, 2022 conditional fifth-round pick (these conditions will not be met)
Minnesota in (from Ravens): 2021 third-round pick, 2022 conditional fifth-round pick
It cost the team roughly 50 spots on Day 2 of the 2021 draft (and possibly more, depending on how bad the Vikings are and how good the Ravens wind up) to rent Ngakoue for a six-game trial. And this was the right decision!
Ngakoue agreed to a restructured one-year contract after being traded to the NFC, putting Minnesota on the hook for $12 million this year, but nothing next spring. Re-signing the bulldozing defensive lineman, especially after the pace he’d set early in the season, would require an investment in line with the game’s top pass rushers. That means an expenditure of something like five years and $125 million (the same extension Myles Garrett recently signed in Cleveland) or five and $135m (Joey Bosa’s deal in Los Angeles).
This would have been extremely difficult for a franchise projected to be an estimated $5 million over the salary cap in 2021. Re-signing Ngakoue would have only been possible through major cuts elsewhere, and productive veterans like Riley Reiff (whose release would trim $11.7 million off the team’s cap number), Harrison Smith ($10.2m), or Adam Thielen ($8.1m) may have wound up against the chopping block.
The Vikings know that’s a horrible place to be, because they were there THIS PAST OFFSEASON. The team’s latest venture into salary cap hell saw players like Xavier Rhodes, Linval Joseph, Trae Waynes, and Everson Griffen depart in the offseason. This contributed to the team’s need for Ngakoue, its 31st-ranked scoring defense (down from sixth in 2019), and most importantly, its 1-5 start.
Let’s talk about that tied-for-last-in-the-NFC record. Even with a seven-team playoff field, there’s little hope of a postseason berth in the Twin Cities. Kirk Cousins has evolved into buttermilk Blake Bortles, the defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 110.4 passer rating against it, and the rushing offense managed only 32 yards in its first game without Dalvin Cook (currently nursing a groin injury). There was not going to be a happy ending in Minnesota.
Trading Ngakoue for a third-round pick isn’t great value for a player setting a Pro Bowl (and possible All-Pro) pace, but it’s better than watching him leave next season with nothing but a 2022 compensatory draft selection in exchange. By dealing with Baltimore, the Vikings will get a slightly better draft pick than the compensatory formula would have given them, and they get it a full year earlier than they would have had Ngakoue played out the full season.
The deal makes Minnesota undoubtedly worse for the rest of 2020, but that was kind of the point. The Vikings are playing for draft position now, and a spot near (or even at) the top of the 2021 draft could open up a pipeline to a new franchise quarterback — especially if Cousins continues to, you know, suuuuuuck.
Minnesota will have to roster Cousins in 2021 since parting with him would leave $35 million of dead space on next year’s salary cap, but the team could move on from the Pizza Ranch spokesman in 2022 while eating a more palatable $10 million hit. That could be just enough time for Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, or, fates willing, Trevor Lawrence to take the reins in Minneapolis after a year learning the trade from the sideline (or starting lineup). It’s not an ideal situation by any means, but there’s at least a plan in place for the Vikings.
Oh, and the Ravens got scarier, too
Baltimore flailed helplessly at Patrick Mahomes for four quarters of their Week 3 defeat, allowing the Chiefs to rack up a season-best 385 passing yards in a game that was effectively over by halftime. Then the Ravens watched as the Raiders upset Kansas City on the road by rattling Mahomes with a series of blitzes that maximized the impact of their oft-undermanned pass rush and sacked the KC QB a season-high three times.
This clearly made an impact on general manager Eric DeCosta, who jumped on an opportunity to add his second former Jaguar Pro Bowler of 2020 to the Baltimore depth chart. Ngakoue will join Calais Campbell along an imposing front seven that also includes Matt Judon, Parnell McPhee, and Tyus Bowser. While the Ravens have gotten tremendous mileage from their secondary in blitz packages — Marlon Humphrey, DeShon Elliott, and Chuck Clark all have multiple sacks this season — bringing Ngakoue into the fold means more pressure on four-man rushes and fewer cover-1 or cover-0 risks downfield against AFC quarterbacks.
This is vitally important for a team that:
Is currently a half-game behind the Steelers and their fourth-ranked scoring offense in the AFC North, and
Gave up 17.8 points per game in the regular season the past two years, then 25.5 in the postseason (0-2)
Jackson has never even led in a playoff game in his NFL career. Adding another dynamic standout to the defensive line will be a massive help in case he stumbles again. Plus, with an estimated $37 million in cap space next offseason, Ngakoue may be more than just the rental he was set to be in Minnesota.
It’s a good deal for both sides. It’s a way better deal for the Ravens. — CD
Eagles vs. Giants, in five words or fewer
The most Giants ending possible
Week 7 picks
On Thursday night, two rivals — one from New York, one from Pennsylvania — faced off in an agonizing race that everyone is exhausted by and just wishes were over. We spent the evening wondering why this was even on our TV, and yet we couldn’t look away.
Am I talking about Eagles-Giants or the final presidential debate? You decide!
The Eagles, who have shown a propensity to come alive late in games (sometimes too late), scored with 40 seconds left to earn a one-point win and take a slight, but insurmountable, lead in the NFC East. Although it made Daniel Jones’ 80-yard run all for naught (except for the lolz), it did give all three of us human “experts” a 1-0 start to Week 7. Suck it, coin!
We were most divided on three games this week. One, to no surprise, was the Titans-Steelers matchup that pits two undefeated teams against each other. I went with the Steelers on the road, as did the 2004 quarter that RVB found in his car. The others were 49ers-Patriots and Rams-Bears, four teams that no one can quite figure out. Christian and I are giving the Patriots and Rams the benefit of the doubt, while RVB and his coin like the 49ers (who have yet to lose an away game this season) and the Bears. — SH
The “This is going to end stupidly, isn’t it?” game: Lions vs. Falcons
This game was a tough one to pick. Both of these teams are riding their longest win streaks of the season (one game), and both find devastating, ridiculous ways to lose, which often includes blowing double-digit leads.
That’s been especially true lately when the Falcons and Lions are on the field together. Let’s take a quick look at the last two times they’ve played. In 2014, the Lions rallied from a 21-0 deficit for a 22-21 win, but the comeback almost fell short. Matt Prater missed a 43-yard field goal with seconds left — and then got a second chance because of a delay-of-game penalty. Prater nailed the second kick for a Detroit victory.
In 2017, the two teams met again for an even wilder ending. The Falcons took an early 17-3 lead, but the Lions refused to go away. Down 30-26, the Lions reached the goal line with eight seconds left in the game and would’ve taken the lead, if the touchdown hadn’t been reversed after a replay. Then the game ended on a 10-second runoff.
This week finally brings the rubber match. I’m taking the Lions, but I’m not super confident in that decision. What I am confident in, though, is that the ending will be loco and will probably involve a weird penalty rule a lot of fans didn’t know about. — SH
The “I liked the Raiders until their whole offensive line had to quarantine” pick: Buccaneers vs. Raiders
Vegas has already defended its home turf once against an NFC South team with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The Raiders dispatched the Saints back in Week 2 in a 34-24 statement game that highlighted the improvements the franchise has made since re-hiring Jon Gruden. A Week 5 upset win in Kansas City solidified the team’s standing as a playoff contender.
That’s why I was leaning toward another Las Vegas victory this weekend. That was before I learned the entire Raider offensive line had been placed on the club’s COVID-19 reserve list and may miss Sunday’s game — which has been shifted from Sunday night to an afternoon slot in advance of a potential cancellation. Even if the game takes place, there’s no telling what condition the team’s blocking will be in after missing multiple practice days to quarantine.
This is all very bad for a team staring down a touch matchup to begin with. Derek Carr’s revival has been tied to a low sack rate that rivals the 2015-17 stretch in which he made three straight Pro Bowls. The Vegas offense has thrived behind a vastly improved deep ball passing game that smoked the Chiefs and ultimately came up short against the Bills a week earlier.
On Sunday, they’ll (theoretically) face a gelling young secondary that baffled Aaron Rodgers in Week 6 behind what could be a practice squad-caliber offensive line. Factor in a pass rush that ranks second in the league in sack rate (9.3 percent), and you’ve got the recipe for the ugliest thing to happen in Las Vegas since … well, I don’t know exactly, but it probably wasn’t more than a week ago.
If this game gets postponed a week, I’ll flip my pick back over to Carr and company even though it doesn’t seem especially wise. But backing any team that could be without 100 percent of its offensive line is downright stupid. Sorry, Raiders. — CD
The “Changing the narrative” game: 49ers vs. Patriots
The Patriots aren’t good. Sure, they’re not bad, per se, like Jets or Giants bad. But this is not the fearsome team that was an easy guess on the weekly picks chart. They’re below .500 for the first time since Woodrow Wilson was president, approximately, and, dang it, I love to see it. It’s like the kid in school everyone’s afraid of who shows up to PE one day with a little poop stain on his gym shorts, and suddenly the tide has turned--you don’t have to be afraid of them anymore. Then you inevitably find out there’s some bad shit going on in their home life, so you extend your hand in friendship to offer them a little support. But not the Patriots. We don’t have to give a shit about what’s going on in their home life; we can delight in their misery and there’s nothing immoral or unsavory about it. It’s a free pass for our conscience.
The Niners are getting a bad rap, I think, because of that ugly loss to Miami a couple weeks ago. But they looked pretty convincing against the Rams last week. Are they ready to challenge Seattle for the NFC West title? We’ll see about that, but I think they’re a better team than the Patriots, and I will delight in seeing them send New England one game further into the toilet. — RVB
We should be talking about this more, pop culture edition
It can feel overwhelming to try to keep up with the latest in pop culture these days. We already suffer from information overload, and there’s a constant stream of movies and shows released each week that makes it easy for things to get lost in the shuffle.
So I want to shine a light on a few pop culture odds and ends that I’m hoping don’t get overlooked.
1. Jeremy Strong’s fart machine
The Trial of the Chicago 7, which recently made its Netflix debut, is getting major awards buzz. That’s no surprise, given its themes, timeliness, and pedigree. But you can find serious dissections about it elsewhere.
Instead, I wanna talk about Jeremy Strong using a fart machine to rile up Frank Langella.
Strong plays activist Jerry Rubin, a much different character than his Emmy-winning role of the tightly wound Kendall Roy on Succession. Strong’s Rubin, complete with a Spicoli-like stoner drawl, is the closest the movie has to comic relief, though Strong never makes him one-dimensional.
Langella, acting legend and Whoopi Goldberg’s ex, plays Judge Julius Hoffman (no relation to Abbie). He is both the corporeal villain of the movie and the embodiment of the villain (a vengeful government). Judge Hoffman is blatantly biased, punitive, narrow-minded, and not fit for the job — oh hey, there’s some of that relevancy to today.
As in real life, Rubin would try to use hijinks to provoke the judge, and Strong decided to go method with it:
“So I planted a fart machine in the judge’s dais where he couldn’t find it. I would set it off sometimes before a close-up, and it would really piss him off. His face turned red. Those are the takes we used in the film. It was great — there was real, palpable tension in the room when that happened. I got in trouble sometimes with Aaron and the producers, but I kind of felt like … if I’m Jerry Rubin, and I’m not in contempt of some court, then I’m not doing my job.”
Is that a little puerile? Maybe. It’s also objectively funny. Kendall Roy could never.
2. Ethan Hawke’s balls-to-the-wall performance as John Brown
The Good Lord Bird isn’t like anything else on TV right now, and Ethan Hawke is giving a performance like no one else. His portrayal of John Brown — a fervent abolitionist who’s perhaps a bit off his rocker and has suffered a lot of heartbreak in his life — is almost feral.
He’s also really hilarious in this role.
While the excellent 15-year-old Joshua Caleb Johnson grounds the miniseries as Onion — with his “I don’t know how I got here but I’m just trying to survive” energy — Hawke is its lifeblood. I’m already ready to make my Emmy prediction for next year.
3. Ted Lasso is the salve for our aching souls
When Ted Lasso premiered on Apple TV+, some were surprised by how good and kind-hearted it was. Not me. I mean, it’s based on a character created to promote the Premier League on NBC, so I get why there was skepticism. But the hallmark of a Bill Lawrence show (Scrubs, Cougar Town) is fast-moving one-liners interspersed with pathos. Then add in Jason Sudeikis, who has an inherent decency about him. As an actor, he comes across as someone who would make himself the butt of the joke to save you from being laughed at.
I enjoyed the show right away and only grew to love it more. It took an absurd premise — an American football coach becoming the manager of an EPL team, for a Major League-esque reason — and made it feel real. It’s also the source of what is probably my favorite stupidest joke on TV this year:
Jamie, the star player, as he’s leaving: Cheers.
Ted Lasso: Night Court!
Ted Lasso could easily have been filled with one-note characters, but it’s smarter than that. It could have shameless tried to manipulate your emotions, but its poignancy always feels earned.
But it never really hit me until later by how much we all needed a show like that right now, devoid of cynicism and centered around compassionate characters who are gracious enough to forgive themselves and each other. It makes you feel, dare I say, hopeful in the year 2020. — SH