2020 NFL Predictions
(We'll probably be extremely wrong.)
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Holy crapola, the NFL returns this week. To ring in the new season, we’ll be sending out a few missives to help you get ready.
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The NFL is unpredictable in a normal year. Just think back to a year ago, if you can remember those halcyon days. Last September, Andrew Luck had just retired, Lamar Jackson was about to start his record-setting MVP season, Ryan Tannehill was an afterthought on the Titans’ bench, mild-mannered Myles Garrett was a couple months away from smacking Mason Rudolph with a helmet, and the Dolphins appeared to have zero competition for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
But this year? Yeah, we have no idea what’s even going to happen 15 minutes from now. That constant state of anxiety and uncertainty pretty much sucks, as you’re well aware of at this point. Still, we have to get our fun in however we can, and making football predictions is fun, even if (or especially because) we end up being very, very wrong.
Below, Christian D’Andrea, Ryan Van Bibber, and I made a few predictions ahead of the 2020 season. We’ll check back later throughout the season to see how those are unfolding. Here’s one more prediction: probably not well! — Sarah Hardy
AFC champions
Kansas City Chiefs
I could be talked into a couple of different options here. The Ravens were the best regular season team last year and aced the offseason. Geoff Schwartz and Alex Kirshner, two friends of the Post Route, each made a convincing case for the Steelers to win it all. If their quarterback situation is solid this season, the Patriots, Colts, and Titans shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Chiefs took an ever-so-slight step back during the 2019 regular season, thanks in no small part to Patrick Mahomes’ injury. It didn’t matter when the playoffs started. Kansas City found that extra gear just in time to win its first Super Bowl in 50 years. Now that the Chiefs know what it takes to get this far, they should remain the favorite to make the trip to Tampa in 2021 (2021! It sounds so close, yet so far away). — SH
Baltimore Ravens
Everything about the Ravens’ divisional loss to the Titans last season screams fluke—a first possession that ends with a turnover over on a tipped ball, a most un-Baltimore-like defensive effort, etc. It just wasn’t characteristic of John Harbaugh’s team. Come January, we’ll have completely forgotten about it when the Ravens get their ticket punched for a trip to the Super Bowl.
This isn’t exactly going out on a limb. The Ravens and Chiefs are the two most popular picks to win it all this year—for good reason. What might be the most exciting story here is that we’re on the verge of a long-running rivalry between two dynasties led by two incredible quarterbacks who also happen to be the most entertaining players in the game. —RVB
NFC champions
Seattle Seahawks
The NFC is trickier to project than the AFC. The 49ers would be the defending champs if NFL games lasted 3.5 quarters. The Saints and Cowboys are still loaded. The Bucs have spent most of 2020 playing a “build-a-Super-Bowl-roster” game of their own.
Why am I giving the Seahawks the edge? Well, like the Chiefs, they’re stable where it matters (most notably, at quarterback and head coach). Russell Wilson is as steady and trustworthy as any QB in the NFL, and every year he makes up for the sins of his flimsy offensive line and random collection of running backs. Linebacker Bobby Wagner serves as the quarterback of the defense, and despite the pass rush remaining a concern, new addition Jamal Adams can help with that from the safety position.
Last year, the Seahawks were inches away from claiming the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would have altered the entire postseason and makes for an interesting “what if” thought exercise. But even in their playoff loss to the Packers, they showed why it’s never a good idea to count out the Seahawks. Just when you think you have them beat, they’ll pop up again like Michael Myers, ready to strike. They will never stop fighting. — SH
New Orleans Saints
If this does happen, get ready for two months of nothing but Drew Brees swan song stories. Annoying, but not undeserved given his incredible career on the field—his MAGA leanings and MLM side hustles will be there to remind us that even the greatest sports heroes can still be painfully noxious human beings.
But to me the real story here is New Orleans’ defense. It feels as if it might be the most criminally underrated unit in the NFL heading into the season, but that’s hard to understand with just one look at the lineup. The unit is littered with playmakers at every level, most notably pass rushers Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan. Being a legit Super Bowl contender requires balance on both sides of the ball, and that’s where the Saints stack up better than the rest of the NFC. —RVB
The Super Bowl 55 winner
Kansas City Chiefs
In today’s NFL, it’s incredibly difficult to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Even the Patriots only did it once. They were also the last team to do it — 15 years ago.
The Chiefs have a good chance to break that streak. They largely kept the team in place, and that kind of continuity is more important this year than ever. Even with modified training camps and no preseason, they don’t have to worry as much about a learning curve or chemistry issues. Oh yeah, and they still have Mr. Mahomes. He’s pretty good, we hear. — SH
Baltimore Ravens
A Ravens-Saints Super Bowl would be an incredible way to spend three hours, assuming everyone stays healthy. I’m picking the Ravens mostly because I want to see Lamar Jackson adding a Lombardi Trophy to his awards pile, recognizing his awesomeness. That’s it. I don’t really have any kind of informed statistical measure to back this up, so it’s at least as good as any other prediction out there. —RVB
The team that will live up to last year’s hype
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys finished a disappointing 8-8 and came up just short of winning an NFC East title that no one seemed to want. It should have never come down to a Week 16 game against the Eagles to decide the division, though. Six of the Cowboys’ losses were by eight points or fewer, and with talent like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Byron Jones all over the roster, missing the playoffs was unacceptable. A lot of the blame fell, rightfully, on former coach Jason Garrett. In his place comes Mike McCarthy, who isn’t the sexiest hire but at least he has experience moving past the NFC Divisional Round.
Most of the team returns, with the big exceptions of Jones and center Travis Frederick. Dallas also got some reinforcements, including rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, rookie corner Trevon Diggs, and veteran defensive ends Everson Griffen and Aldon Smith (even if Smith’s return to the NFL was a ... surprise).
All eyes will still be on Prescott. The fifth-year starter thrived under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who was retained, and no longer has Garrett’s baffling decisions and robotic stare holding him back. He’ll also be playing under the franchise tag this year and will be looking to cash in after Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson both received record-setting extensions.
All together, that should be enough to get the Cowboys into the playoffs and maybe even to their first NFC Championship Game in 25 years. — SH
The team that will start 1-4 and make the playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers
Losing Derwin James for the season before he can even play a game hurts, but this remains a stellar defense with a pass rush capable of erasing coverage lapses downfield. The offense is versatile enough to adjust to Philip Rivers’ departure in stride thanks to a potent group of skill players. Tyrod Taylor is a solid, high-floor, low-ceiling replacement who can lead this team to wins before allowing a talented rookie to take the reins. Justin Herbert’s moment in the sun might come sooner than expected if LA wins just one of its first five games, but he’s got a top-heavy group of targets who can boost his profile in the NFL.
Will the Chargers compete for the AFC West title? Probably not. Can they sneak into the AFC’s seventh playoff spot? Absolutely. — CD
The team that won’t meet expectations
Arizona Cardinals
For the third year in a row, this could easily be the Browns. But fool me thrice, shame on all of us — especially the Browns.
Instead, I’m going with the Cardinals. There’s little doubt they’ll be better than they were a year ago. I’m bullish on Kyler Murray, who should build off his promising rookie season, especially now that he has DeAndre Hopkins as his No. 1 target. The defense still has one of the league’s best pass rushers (Chandler Jones) and a three-time All-Pro cornerback looking to rebound from his only non-Pro Bowl season (Patrick Peterson). Rookie Isaiah Simmons is an intriguing weapon as a linebacker/safety/defensive chess piece.
However, the offensive line, which allowed 50 sacks in 2019, remains a work in progress. The defense made a few improvements, but still gave up more yards than any other last season. They also play in the toughest division in the NFL and have to visit the Patriots and Cowboys in the middle of the season.
When it comes down to it, I just don’t think they’re ready — not quite yet anyway. Let’s check back on them in a year, though. — SH
The breakthrough player no one saw coming
Corey Davis, Titans
Davis was supposed to transform the Tennessee offense after playing himself up from unheralded Western Michigan recruit to the sixth overall pick of the 2017 draft. Instead, injuries and inconsistency have forced him out of the Titans’ top wideout spot and convinced the franchise not to exercise the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. Davis is now playing for his next paycheck, and with few other proven options for Ryan Tannehill besides 2019 rookie sensation A.J. Brown and slot target Adam Humphries, he’ll have the chance to live up to his potential — and earn a big payday in 2021. — CD
The most disappointing veteran quarterback
Philip Rivers, Colts
Rivers was lured from the West Coast to replace Jacoby Brissett atop the Indianapolis depth chart. The thing is, he may not be much better than the guy he’s set to usurp.
Brissett got the Colts out to a 5-2 start last season behind an efficient passing game that saw him post a 99.3 passer rating and a 14:3 TD:INT ratio. Then he suffered a knee injury, was briefly replaced by Brian Hoyer, and played at roughly 70 percent the rest of the season, dropping those efficiency numbers to 75.0 and 4:3 in a 2-5 finish.
General manager Chris Ballard wasn’t convinced Brissett’s injury-free first half was sustainable. Enter Rivers, a relatively low-risk gamble since his $25 million salary is only set for 2020. But you can argue Indianapolis’ prized acquisition was a detriment to the Chargers’ offense as the season wore on. Los Angeles frequently played games in desperation mode, leading Rivers to look like late-stage Brett Favre in a 1-6 finish. Over that stretch, he threw more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (11). Take away a big showing against a moribund Jaguars team — his only win — and he’s got a 73.6 rating in that span.
Rivers fell apart with arguably a better supporting cast of skill players in LA. Unless the Colts’ stellar blocking can calm him down, Indianapolis’ plan of an instant upgrade may fail to pan out. — CD
The week Mitchell Trubisky gets benched
Week 8
The Bears face a few capable defenses to start the season — the Colts and Buccaneers most notable among them — but their early schedule will provide several opportunities for Trubisky to prove himself against bottom 10 defenses (the Giants, Lions, and Panthers all among them). Then come the Rams in Week 7, which means young Mitchell will suddenly have to step up his game while behind harassed by Aaron Donald and having top target Allen Robinson shadowed by Jalen Ramsey.
The probability of a meltdown is high. If Nick Foles can throw a few garbage time touchdowns, he could be tabbed for a start the following Sunday … in Week 8 against the Saints and their top 10 defense. — CD
The NFL’s sack leader
Chandler Jones, Cardinals
Jones took a look at Michael Strahan’s 22.5-sack single season record this offseason and claimed “I don’t think that’s hard to get.” With 49 sacks the last three years — including 19 in 2019 — he might have a valid point. — CD
How many points will the Jaguars average per game?
17.5
The Jaguars appear to be in Tank for Trevor/Fail for Fields mode. They’ve torn down the roster that came close to a Super Bowl just 2.5 years ago and are now fielding the youngest team in the NFL as they rebuild and deny they’re rebuilding.
The offense was pretty awful last season and the Jags didn’t do much to change that this offseason. Gardner Minshew II is back at quarterback after starting 12 games as a rookie. Maybe he’ll prove he can be their future at quarterback. Or more likely, he’ll prove that he was the QB equivalent of the Baby Yoda sipping soup meme: capturing the nation’s attention for a brief moment in 2019 and largely been forgotten since.
New faces on offense include:
UDFA running back James Robinson, who will start following Leonard Fournette’s release and Ryquell Armstead’s return to the reserve/COVID-19 list
33-year-old fullback Bruce Miller, who last played in 2015
tight end Tyler Eifert, who has been occasionally healthy in his career
and OC Jay Gruden, who has only known dysfunctional teams this past decade (Bengals, Washington).
Last year, Jacksonville averaged 18.8 points, which was still better than six other teams. I expect that number to go down a bit this year, particularly since the offense won’t get as much help from the defense without Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, and Ronnie Harrison there to create turnovers.
Let’s say the Jaguars put up 17.5 points per game in 2020. That might not end up being the worst scoring offense in the league (Washington only averaged 16.6 ppg in 2019), but it could be just bad enough to land them what they really want: the No. 1 pick. — SH
The most 9-7 team
Tennessee Titans
2016 record? 9-7
2017? 9-7
2018? 9-7
2019? 9-7
On the plus side, nine wins has been enough to finish in the AFC’s top seven every year since
2005. 9-7 even won the South twice the past five seasons. This is great news for the Titans and potentially awful news for Mike Vrabel’s penis. — CD