The 5 best rookie receivers
Also, we picked the winners for Thursday night's garbage NFC East showdown, which might actually be the best thing on TV that night.
It only cost the Cardinals a past-his-prime David Johnson and a second-round pick to bring DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, but there was a silver lining in the deal for Houston. Though the Texans failed to extract meaningful value for a perennial All-Pro, they would have a great shot to replace him via one of the deepest wideout classes in NFL Draft history.
When the Cardinals' former pick — 40th overall — came up, the bulk of that class remained available for selection. Next-level prospects like Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault, and Denzel Mims were waiting to hear their names called, perhaps to play alongside an upper-crust young quarterback like Deshaun Watson. The Texans' offense wasn't in a good place, but one correct decision could shave months or even years from an arduous rebuild.
Instead, Houston selected defensive lineman Ross Blacklock, who has yet to play in more than a third of his team's defensive snaps this fall. The Texans could have theoretically taken a shot at a wideout with their own second-round pick, but then-head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien wasn't interested. He'd traded that selection weeks earlier to acquire Brandin Cooks, who was coming off his worst season as a pro.
The purpose of this introduction isn't just to lay another wreath at the altar of O'Brien's bad decisions (though it should be noted only two of the 28 wideouts selected in the first 201 picks have yet to play in 2020. One is the only wideout Houston drafted, Isaiah Coulter). It's to talk about the receiving talent that threatens to push the NFL even harder toward pass-first offenses. This fall has been a banner year for breakthrough debuts, with players like Claypool, Shenault, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson each earning turns in the spotlight.
While it's not especially helpful to rank these budding stars in their current state, this six-week audition provides a foundation for their futures. Let’s talk about that. 2020 is going to produce a long list of starting receivers through the next decade. These are the guys whose careers I’m highest on after a small sample size.
5. Darnell Mooney, Bears
Mooney has been hindered by the uneven passing game behind him, but the slot receiver from Tulane has proven valuable for a 5-1 Bears team that stands atop the NFC North. The fifth-round pick has pushed his way past Anthony Miller to become the team’s No. 2 wideout, besting the erstwhile breakout candidate in targets, catches, and snaps played this fall. Though his stats are modest — 18 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown — it’s easy to see how he can become a trusted asset for a perpetually uneven aerial attack.
Mooney's biggest strength is his ability to react to questionably thrown passes. He cuts back to the ball with strong hands that hold up through contact. He adjusts routes to place himself in the line of classic Trubisky or Foles throws. He's explosive enough to make a defender-shedding cut or leap in order to turn probable incompletions into receptions. On the off chance he's hit in stride, he's elusive and capable of creating bonus yards after the catch.
The rookie is catching 60 percent of his passes, which seems low until you realize Allen Robinson — doing the lord's work with a bad quarterback for the eighth straight year — is only hauling in 60.6 percent of his targets. Mooney's passes have generally had a higher degree of difficulty as well; while Robinson's average target comes 10 yards downfield, the former Green Wave standout clocks in at 14 yards. That's the most of any Bear with at least seven passes thrown his way this fall.
This all suggests he’ll work his way into more deep targets as his career progresses. He averaged 17.7 yards per catch his final three seasons at Tulane, so he’s entirely capable of being the field-stretching threat Chicago hoped Ted Ginn could provide in 2020. Mooney lacks the pedigree and raw prospect numbers of his peers in this rookie class, but he’s already shined through a steep learning curve with the Bears.
4. Laviska Shenault, Jaguars
Shenault was thrown into a tough situation in his pro debut, but the Jags’ tanking intentions have meant plenty of opportunity for him to show his value as a multi-tool on a roster desperate for playmakers. The former Colorado Buffalo has lined up everywhere in the Jacksonville offense but the offensive line, averaging 7.5 targets + touches per game in 2020 (35 passes, 10 carries).
That versatility has been invaluable for a team searching for its identity. Shenault’s jittery speed and lateral movement has made him a common short-range weapon. Though his average target has come only five yards downfield his elusiveness has carried him to nearly 11 yards per catch.
Shenault has converted 22 of his 36 touches into either first downs or touchdowns, providing a much-needed cantilever to D.J. Chark’s longer-range receiving game. While his top-line speed — a 4.58s 40 at this year’s combine — left him to slide to the second round of the draft, there’s no denying his playmaking ability or the fact that at 6’1 and 230 pounds, he’s a load for defensive backs to bring down.
Though he’s coming off his worst game as a pro — only three catches for 10 yards against the Lions’ oft-shoddy defense — he remains a foundational piece of the Jaguars rebuild. With Chark and Shenault in place, Jacksonville can feel pretty good about its receiving corps moving forward. The rest of the lineup? Uhhhhhhh.
3. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Lamb sits among the rookie leaders in receptions and receiving yards, in part, because the Cowboys defense has been so bad that the team’s offense has had no choice but to throw its way back into games. He leads all first-year players in receptions by a wide margin because he leads all first-year players in targets by a wide margin.
That doesn’t mean his value is limited to fantasy teams, however. Lamb has been a vital component of the Dallas passing game, ranking among the league’s top 10 players in both receptions (ninth) and receiving yards (seventh). He leads the team’s wideouts in total yards despite playing in 58 fewer snaps than Amari Cooper and 83 fewer than Michael Gallup. His two 100-yard performances happen to be his team’s only two wins of the season.
He can do more, too. There’s an extra gear to Lamb’s game the Cowboys haven’t unlocked — and may not unlock now that Andy Dalton is starting for an injured Dak Prescott at quarterback.
The explosive wideout averaged more than 21 yards per catch in his final season at Oklahoma, planting his flag as one of the most dynamic deep threats to stand out in head coach Lincoln Riley’s big-play offense. Despite that history, Dallas hasn’t typically run him that far downfield. Instead, that role has gone to Michael Gallup, whose 16.8 air yards per target are significantly more than Lamb’s. The Cowboys are relying on Lamb’s speed to lead to some massive yards after catch. While he’s been fine in that regard, it’s probably not the best way to maximize his potential.
Lamb is a few key adjustments from transforming “lighting up the box score because Dallas has to throw so damn much” into “lighting up the box score because he keeps ruining safeties downfield.” Can head coach Mike McCarthy make those changes? History says probably not, but his 2020 experience says … also probably not.
2. Chase Claypool, Steelers
Claypool has all the physical attributes of a superstar. He's massive (6'4, 240 pounds), fast as hell (a 4.42s 40 time at the 2020 combine), and versatile enough to line up anywhere in the offense, including out of the backfield.
Though it took him a few weeks to earn a starring role in offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner’s offense, Claypool has made the most of his early opportunities in the NFL. In five games he’s put up a 1,000+ receiving yard, 13-touchdown full season pace; 12 of his 17 catches have gone for first downs. Four have resulted in touchdowns. That’s all EXTREMELY good, and it doesn’t tell the whole story of his breakthrough.
No wideout in the league is averaging more yards after catch than Claypool’s 8.5. Ben Roethlisberger’s passer rating when targeting him is a tidy 152.8. For comparison, Roethlisberger’s rating when throwing to JuJu Smith-Schuster in his breakout 2018 was only 97.6.
Smith-Schuster’s presence will help keep defensive focus off Claypool. It also stands as a tentpole for Pittsburgh’s powerful development track at wideout. The Steelers’ homegrown success stories from non-first-round picks include a long list of Pro Bowlers, including:
Smith-Schuster
Antonio Brown
Mike Wallace
Emmanuel Sanders
Martavis Bryant
and current wild cards Diontae Johnson and James Washington
(it also includes Sammie Coates. We try not to think about Sammie Coates.)
This all points to a sustainable and fruitful career for the big Canadian. Claypool didn’t break out until his senior year at Notre Dame, which led him to be the 11th receiver selected in this year’s NFL Draft. If he can play at even 80 percent of the level he’s thrown out to the world the last two weeks, he could wind up being 2020’s biggest steal.
1. Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Bill O'Brien turned the draft pick he received for DeAndre Hopkins into a rotational defensive tackle. Vikings general manager Rick Spielman turned the draft pick for which he traded Stefon Diggs into a rookie wideout who currently ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards despite not even starting his first two games.
Jefferson has proven an ideal big-play replacement for Diggs, even if the passing game around him has been less so. Minnesota’s mounting losses and continued need to erase late-game deficits has elevated the team’s deep-ball passing attack. This has been a boon for the former LSU star, who had 10 catches go for 35+ yards last season and has averaged 19.2 yards per reception as a bright spot in an otherwise trying year.
While Jefferson lacks Claypool’s size, he’s still capable of bullying cornerbacks and creating his own space in the red zone, as proven by his 18 receiving touchdowns last fall and the three he’s got so far in 2020. His physicality creates room at the line of scrimmage, and his crisp lateral movement turns that leverage into big opportunities downfield. Early returns show he’s capable of consistently winning one-on-one matchups against NFL cornerbacks, subtly creating space without drawing pass interference penalties and making catches through contact.
There’s a valid concern about how he fares against tougher secondaries. His three 100-yard games this fall have come against the 20th-, 24th-, and 30th-ranked passing defenses, per Football Outsiders. The 29th-ranked Seahawk secondary held him to only three catches and 23 yards. Still, his combination of strong hands and ability to create leverage up and down the field should make his breakout sustainable. Jefferson’s been so good that Cousins has a 106.9 passing rating when targeting him despite throwing four interceptions while looking his rookie’s way. Imagine how good he’d be if his quarterback just played up to his career regular season standard.
Also considered: Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, and Gabriel Davis.
These guys are all pretty good! Don’t be offended if I left your wideout off the list; the slots from No. 3 to No. 10 are all pretty damn close, and there’s a reasonable chance these rankings at the end of the season feature a lot more Ruggs, Jeudy, and Higgins than they do after Week 6. — Christian D’Andrea
Thursday night pick parade
Which is going to be the bigger dumpster fire, the presidential debate or a primetime NFC East showdown? This might be the one time where we can feel good about actually choosing to watch two teams from this hellish division go head to head.
This week, it’s the terrible New York Giants against the slightly less terrible, of late, Philadelphia Eagles. Here’s who our pickin’ panel likes to win:
Yes, we used a quarter, a dingy 2004 version I found while looking for the dog’s leash under the seat of the car. Hey, money is money. And who’s a laid off sports journalist to complain about where it comes from (at least I didn’t have to write a bunch of social aggregation shit to “earn” these 25 cents).
Looks like we’re all firmly on the side of the Eagles here. Philly has at least found a way to score points lately, posting 28 last week after the Ravens defense went into sleep mode, and 29 the week before that against the Steelers. The Giants are kinda riding a hot streak though, getting their first win of the season last week against the Washington Football team. LOOK OUT BABY, HERE COMES DANIEL JONES! Which is apparently what my quarter thinks.
The Eagles are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under is set at 45, roughly the same as the over/under split for how many times the big ugly orange 45 on the other channels that night will trip over his Toobin. — RVB
Speaking of dollars and cents, if you like what we’re slingin’ here at the Post Route, slip us a shiny new quarter or two—you know, to make picks with— via our Ko-Fi page. We are eternally grateful for your support.