Predicting the debut dates of every 2021 rookie quarterback
And Cole Beasley's important lesson on masks
We know where this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks will play in 2021. We also know who they’ll play after last week’s schedule drop. What we don’t know is *when* they’ll play.
Some first-year passers are game-ready when they’re drafted. Others need a little more prep work. While the days of players like Aaron Rodgers waiting several years to emerge as a starter appear to be gone everywhere but Wisconsin, it’s not uncommon for first-round picks to wait a few weeks or even months before taking the reins to an NFL offense. The key is finding the right stretch to ensure a soft transition from the practice field to Sundays.
For Jeff Fisher in 2016, that meant keeping Jared Goff on the shelf until Week 11 when the Dolphins and their 29th-ranked defense came to Los Angeles. Baker Mayfield’s debut waited until a Week 4 showdown with the Raiders and their NFL-worst scoring defense. Josh Allen sat for the first 35 minutes of his pro career before the Bills decided, good lord, nothing could be worse than continuing to play Nathan Peterman (they lost that season opener 47-3).
But the best-laid plans can be derailed thanks to injury. Lamar Jackson became a revelation when rusting statue Joe Flacco got hurt in 2018. Justin Herbert got thrown into the fire against plan in Week 2 when the Chargers’ training staff nearly murdered Tyrod Taylor.
Let’s assume everyone stays healthy and every coaching staff gets a season that plays out exactly like they expect. We know some guys are destined to start from Week 1 en route to rookie of the year candidacies. What about everyone else? Let’s take a look at this year’s five first-round picks.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Week 1 vs. Houston
If Lawrence were less than the most complete QB prospect since Andrew Luck, the Jaguars could take their time breaking him in. Gardner Minshew has proven he can be a useful caretaker behind center, and 2021 is only the next step in a long rebuild for Jacksonville.
But Lawrence is a monster in all the best ways; a prototypical franchise QB with a rocket arm, great decision-making, the athleticism to extend plays outside of the pocket, and the intelligence to avoid stupid Trubisky-ian risks. Factor in a receiving corps led by D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Collin Johnson, and you’ve got the makings of a 4,000-yard season for the Jags.
Plus, it’s not like this version of the Texans (30th in defensive DVOA last year) is exactly a challenge.
Zach Wilson, Jets: Week 1 vs. Carolina
Is Wilson ready to make the jump from BYU to New York? Doesn’t matter! The other quarterbacks currently on the Jets’ roster are James Morgan and Mike White. Fortunately for him he gets a warm-up against the Panthers in Week 1 before getting ground into a powder against Bill Belichick seven days later.
Trey Lance, 49ers: Week 11 vs. Jacksonville
Lance has the biggest jump to make of any first-round quarterback. The former North Dakota State star carved up the best teams the FCS had to offer, but that’s a far cry from the NFL defenses he’ll see after the Niners drafted him third overall in April.
Fortunately, San Francisco has plenty of runway to get their young QB airborne due to the presence of Jimmy Garoppolo. Handsome James may not be the future of the franchise — general manager John Lynch reportedly kept him on the trade block throughout the pre-draft process, though no one bit — but he’s proven good enough to get his team to the Super Bowl … even if his second half play can be the difference between victory and defeat.
Garoppolo’s limited ability to throw downfield is what precipitated the 49ers’ trade-up to get Lance, and the rookie will be thrown into the lineup as soon as head coach Kyle Shanahan deems him ready. As USA Today’s Steven Ruiz pointed out, Lance’s ability to scramble brings an added dimension to the SF offense that will unlock new potential from an already playmaker-heavy group. Lance’s big arm and athleticism provides a higher ceiling but a lower floor for a team that should be in playoff contention should it avoid last year’s injury woes.
But that ready-made roster could make things tougher for Lance to crack the starting lineup. If San Francisco gets out to a hot start, swapping out passers could be dangerous. Garoppolo’s history suggests Shanahan may not have a choice; he’s played a full 16-game slate only once in his career. That 2019 season was also the only time he played in more than six games in a season as a pro.
There’s a soft landing spot in Weeks 1 and 2 if Shanahan wants to get bold with his rookie passer, as the Lions (32nd in pass defense DVOA in 2020) and Eagles (24th) will host the Niners to open the year. It’s tough to find room after that thanks to games against the Colts, Bears, and Rams, but a midseason lull with games against the Jags and Vikings could create the space for Lance to make his debut.
Let’s call that Week 11 showdown the over/under for Lance’s debut. He’s got his small-school background and the Niners’ playoff-ready roster working against him, but vaunted physical tools and Garoppolo’s injury history in his corner. Lance is too good to take a redshirt year under Garoppolo, but the fact he’s played one competitive football game since 2019 probably means we don’t be seeing him until the weather turns cold this season.
Justin Fields, Bears: Week 4 vs. Detroit
Yes, tweeting out “QB1” under a picture of Andy Dalton was instantly memeable. Still, Dalton brings value as an NFL quarterback; in Weeks 10-16 he had a 13:4 touchdown:interception ratio and a 101.9 passer rating for a Cowboy team that went 4-2 to keep its spot in the eye of the shit hurricane that was the 2020 NFC East playoff race.
Fields, however, has the potential to be much better than Dalton was even at his peak, a moment in time now years in the rear view. The Bears’ past four decades of quarterbacks have peaked at “slightly above average” (Jim McMahon, fleeting glimpses of Jay Cutler, … Erik Kramer and Jim Harbaugh if you squint hard enough?). That puts tons of pressure on head coach Matt Nagy to develop Fields quickly, especially with his job on the line after three years on the job and zero postseason wins.
Unless Dalton’s hurt, however, it likely doesn’t benefit Fields to start in Week 1 with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey waiting to force him onto ESPN’s Not Top 10. Week 2 feels unlikely as well, with Dalton earning a chance to notch a win over the Bengal team that cut him loose before the 2020 season. Hell, might as well sit out Week 3 against the Browns with Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, and a revamped young secondary as well.
Week 4 against the Lions? That’s a great spot for a rookie quarterback to make his mark. As previously mentioned, Detroit’s passing defense was hot garbage in 2020. While that group will be better in 2021 — in part because Dan Campbell and a revamped roster are better than Matt Patricia’s group of try-naughts and in part because things couldn’t get worse than the Patricia era — it will still be pretty rough. After that comes the perpetually shitty secondary of Jon Gruden’s Raiders. This is a great opportunity for Fields to start 2-0!
And then comes the deluge. The Packers, who’ve upgraded their secondary at the expense of Aaron Rodgers’ sanity, come next. Then over the next four games come the dominant defenses of the Buccaneers, Steelers, 49ers, and Ravens. That’s a brutal stretch, but Chicago will get more out of seeing what Fields can do against that murderer’s row than watching Dalton get shellacked over the course of a month.
Mac Jones, Patriots: Week 15 vs. Indianapolis
Jones has a moderate obstacle in his way next fall. Can Cam Newton be the revitalized force he was in the first two weeks of 2020 with the Patriots? Or will he be the underwhelming force that languished after recovering from COVID-19 as New England posted its first losing record in nearly two decades?
Switching from Newton to Jones will present some problems given Newton’s run-heavy offensive attack and Jones’, uh, opposite of that (for his college career: 54 carries in three years, 42 net yards). A play-action heavy scheme would work for either passer, utilizing the team’s deep reserve of tailbacks and creating trapdoors for the team’s newly acquired (and handsomely paid) tight ends to escape up the seam. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have to work overtime to create a transition plan from his veteran signal caller to the brand new one, but that’s what Bill Belichick is paying him for.
New England’s fall to the bottom half of the AFC East created a softer schedule than usual. There will be several opportunities for McDaniels to sneak Jones into the lineup, including a stretch from Week 5 to Week 9 where the Pats face the decidedly un-awesome defenses of Houston, Dallas, the Jets, the Chargers, and Carolina. But Jones may not get the call if Newton is playing even average football, as the veteran deserves a shot to run with New England’s new playmaker-loaded offense rather than last year’s version that was led by Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, and a bunch of old Boston Store mannequins with “TIGHT END” written on some masking tape across their chests.
The Patriots have a win-now roster, and Newton’s higher floor -- especially given Jones’ status as a one-year NCAA wonder -- could keep him in the lineup for the entirety of 2021. While the other teams on this list have cycled through young QBs in the past decade, Belichick hasn’t had to do the same until last season and even then only deferred to second-year passer Jarret Stidham when it was absolutely necessary. Jones is a better prospect than the former fourth-round pick (who is still on the roster), but a healthy Newton surrounded by actual targets instead of a AAA infield will have a tremendous opportunity to hold him off.
What would it take to dust off Jones? What if New England, fresh off Week 12-13 losses to the Titans and Bills, suddenly saw its postseason hopes tank? The Patriots’ Week 14 bye would give McDaniels two full weeks to engineer a gameplan for his young ward’s debut. While having to pull that off against the Colts and their top-10 defense wouldn’t be ideal, it would also add another layer of intrigue to the New England-Indianapolis rivalry and give the former Alabama star the chance to immediately endear himself to his new fanbase.
Kyle Trask, Buccaneers: never
lol, Tom Brady’s gonna play until the sun explodes. — CD
Mask off (not you, Cole Beasley)
In January, Cole Beasley called quitting social media “the best thing I’ve ever done.” Maybe he should try giving it up again.
On Thursday, hours before the CDC’s new guidelines said fully vaccinated people no longer have to wear masks inside or outside (with exceptions), the Bills’ white rapper receiver tweeted this — proudly:
The backlash was quick because 1) it’s Twitter and 2) he was being disingenuous and ignorant. And then he cried foul when people called him on it:
I understand why some are hesitant about the vaccine, and I’m not here to be the nag police, aka the kind of people who are incredibly grating even when I agree with them. Hopefully, I’m merely preaching to the choir and we’re all either vaccinated or will be soon because we’re rational adults who enjoy being able to wander around a grocery store again. I’m not a doctor, and neither is Beasley (as he correctly pointed out):
But Beasley is a rich athlete who has easy access to medical professionals, and he could educate himself about the vaccine by taking any questions he has about it to them. Wanting information about the vaccine is reasonable, but it’s critical that the source of that information is trustworthy. So look to the experts — and, as of a few weeks ago, over 90 percent of doctors have gotten at least one dose. They will tell him everything he needs to know, if he chooses (and it won’t be what he wants to hear because it’ll contradict his very unscientific feelings).
Instead of doing that, Beasley came back to Twitter the next day to bemoan our country’s admittedly exhausting divisiveness:
(Kinda funny how many of the same people who support strict anti-abortion laws and who foamed at the mouth when Colin Kaepernick knelt during the national anthem are all choice now, huh?)
On the surface, Beasley’s right about one thing. We’re polarized more than ever, thanks mostly to the grifters who turn everything into political fodder and culture war BS. On the other hand, Beasley shouldn’t get a pass for his willful ignorance. He brought this on himself by being intentionally glib about Dr. Fauci’s quote and then acting surprised when he discovers Twitter isn’t the right platform to have a polite discussion about a topic people have intense feelings about.
More importantly, taking measures — i.e. getting vaccinated and wearing a mask as needed — to protect yourself and others from a virus that has killed more than a half-million Americans isn’t a “trend” or “belief.” It’s a public health matter, and you’re not a lemming or some government apparatchik for caring about people and being on the side of medicine.
Soon after Beasley’s final tweetstorm, the NFL provided another incentive to those in the league who have yet to get the vaccine (Beasley is far from the only one). It informed all its teams that fully vaccinated players and personnel aren’t required to wear masks at club facilities. Anyone who is not fully vaccinated will have to keep wearing a mask at the facilities, both inside and outdoors.
So there’s your choice, Bease: Get the vaccine or wear a mask while you’re at work. It’s not illegal if you don’t, but it will violate the NFL’s protocol. — SH