Who *really* had the best rushing offense in the NFL?
And can they keep it up in 2021?
Welcome to part II of our unofficial running backs week. It’s so unofficial that part III arrives, uh, next Monday?
The NFL’s shift to high-output passing offenses has reduced the effect of the ground game in the past two decades. No position outside of special teams makes less money, on average, than the league’s running backs.
This doesn’t mean handoffs are an afterthought. The Ravens and Titans have each surged to division titles in the past two seasons thanks to dominant rushing attacks. Six of the league’s top nine rushing offenses were playoff teams in 2020. While a dynamic quarterback remains the most important part of a contender’s toolbox, a solid run game is the cantilever that allows a vertical offense to rise above the fray.
While it’s easy to single out the league’s top individual runners -- fantasy sports have broken the way we consume football -- it’s tougher to figure out who fields the most potent and efficient ground game over the course of a season. Fortunately, a tide of advanced statistics has swelled in tune with the game’s popularity amongst would-be general managers. It's easier than ever to figure out which offensive lines clear the biggest holes, which tailbacks do more with less, and which teams outperformed expectations at an unsustainable rate.
In order to better understand whose running game was great beyond just racking up a bunch of yards on a bunch of carries, I compiled these relevant stats in one big chart designed to gauge how much of a team’s output was line related, how much was the result of great runs, and whether or not we can expect similar results in 2021. Teams near the top of the league’s pecking order are in green, while those at the bottom fade from white into deeper red. Click the image to embiggen.
Yards before contact and yards after contact measure how far a runner gets before and after the first defender gets to him. Numbers in the red for both yards after contact and percent of yards after contact meant blocking likely wasn’t the issue; a weak tailback rotation was. A number in the red for YBC but neutral or green for YAC suggest a team’s runners outperformed expectations (helloooo Buccaneers).
Attempts per broken tackle is the rate at which a team’s runners escape a reasonable tackle try. The “Inside 5 TD rate” column measures how often a handoff inside the five yard line -- excluding quarterback sneaks and any runs for wideouts or tight ends -- ended in a touchdown.
What do the numbers tell us? A strong blocking game is paramount to overall success; only four teams in the league had more yards after contact than yards before, suggesting the line is more important than an individual runner. A potent goal line rushing attack is a nice feature, but wasn’t a reliable indicator of a team’s ability to win games.
The Ravens’ run game remains the king thanks to Lamar Jackson’s scrambling ability, but a devastating offensive line does a better job clearing out defenders than anyone else in the league. That group also helped its running backs score from near the goal line a tidy 55 percent of the time. The Chiefs are solid until they get to the goal line, where a lack of bulk may really hurt them out of the backfield.
Detroit’s tailback position remains cursed, even after bringing D’Andre Swift into the fold last year. The Steelers’ run game was as bad as you remember, but the issue may not have been entirely on the shoulders of the team’s running backs. Buffalo could be a few sprung blocks away from making Devin Singletary and Zach Moss one of 2021’s top platoons.
With this data in place, we can look forward to the upcoming season. Did the teams with last year’s most efficient rushing attacks keep their run games intact for another run at the top of the mountain? Did last year’s most underwhelming ground games make the additions needed this offseason to climb back toward the middle of the pack?
Today, we’ll look at five teams who posted solid overall rushing numbers and take a deeper look into whether or not their 2020 success is sustainable. Let’s pull the league’s top rushing offenses into the mix -- Baltimore and Tennessee -- and add a few curious overachievers to the list as well. Next Monday, we’ll swing to the other side of the spectrum and examine the league’s worst run games and how they may (or may not) stand to improve in 2021.
Baltimore Ravens
Notable stat: 1st in the NFL in yards per carry (5.6) and yards before contact (3.4)
What’s changed for 2021? Right tackle Orlando Brown was traded to the Chiefs for a first round pick. He’ll be replaced by former Steeler Alejandro Villanueva. Former Brown/Giant Kevin Zeitler arrived in free agency as well. Mark Ingram was released.
Can they keep this up? Yep! Losing Brown hurts, but the dropoff to Villanueva shouldn't be too painful. Zeitler is only 31 years old and capable of clearing extra space on the right side next to him. Ingram’s 4.2 yards per carry last season were his lowest since 2012. His carries will be absorbed by JK Dobbins and the recently-extended Gus Edwards, who can improve on the template he left behind.
Also, Lamar Jackson. He makes things easier for everyone else in the lineup and will now have Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins to throw to this fall, hopefully reducing the number of stacked boxes Dobbins and Edwards will see. Having a quarterback who can escape pressure and rack up yards on the ground is a run game cheat code. The Ravens have the equivalent of starting Contra with 30 extra lives.
Tennessee Titans
Notable stat: 1st in the NFL in yards after contact (2.5)
What’s changed for 2021? The receiving game took a hit when Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith left in free agency, then rebounded strongly when Julio Jones came to Nashville via trade. Two new tackles arrived via former Brown Kendall Lamm and second round pick Dillon Radunz. Offensive coordinator Arthur Brown was hired as Falcons’ head coach. Former tight ends coach Todd Downing was promoted into his former role.
Can they keep this up? As long as Henry’s workload hasn’t drained him, yes. Tennessee has a perilously thin backfield rotation; the guys vying for carries behind the All-Pro back are Jeremy McNichols, Darrynton Evans, and Brian Hill. The bulk of an above-average run blocking line returns, however, and Henry has piled up a league-high 681 carries the last two years without looking any worse for the wear. If Jones’ presence can prevent opponents from loading the box against him, he’ll be cleared for another prolific season.
The transition to Downing is a bit concerning, but there’s no easier playcalling autopilot than “give the ball to the tractor-sized man capable of dragging four defenders into the end zone.” As long as Downing can keep Ryan Tannehill’s career resurgence moving forward the Titans should be fine. If not, well, no one in the league has seen more stacked boxes the past two seasons than Henry, and he’s been able to create magic anyway.
Philadelphia Eagles
Notable stat: Third in the NFL in yards per carry (5.0) and second in yards before contact (3.1) despite a passing game that could have been better executed by Muppets.
What’s changed for 2021? Head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Carson Wentz failed to see eye-to-eye and now both are gone. Jalen Hurts is the full-time starting quarterback, for now. Jason Peters, who moved back to tackle last season with varying results thanks to injuries up front, may retire. Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are no longer on the roster. Zach Ertz may join them as “former Eagles” before the preseason starts.
The rest of a haggard offensive line that saw 10 different players make starts should be healthy once more. The team spent its first two draft picks on DeVonta Smith and Landon Dickerson, a duo who should move defenders out of the box either via vertical and gadget play threat (Smith) or interior lineman brute strength (Dickerson).
Can they keep this up? It’s wild the Eagles’ run game was as good as it was last year. Only three teams in the league created more space for its runners than Philly, and the Eagles accomplished this despite:
Having one of the league’s least intimidating passing games, and
Dealing with a myriad of injuries to their blockers up front.
This creates hope even though most defenses won’t be too bothered by Hurts’ passing game, at least to start the season. Miles Sanders isn’t great at breaking tackles -- his 18.2 attempts/break was roughly on par with Benny Snell last season -- but has great recognition of running lanes and the acceleration to crash through them before they slam shut. Boston Scott is a useful change-of-pace guy behind him and Hurts’ dual-threat capabilities are more than enough to maintain the Eagles’ status as one of the league’s more efficient running offenses.
Of course, that probably only matters from a fantasy standpoint. Philly will eat more than $49 million in dead cap space this season. It’s gonna be a rough year, even if the run game is above average.
Seattle Seahawks
Notable stat: Third in the NFL in yards before contact (3.1) but bottom six in yards after contact (1.7) and attempts per broken tackle (20.6)
What’s changed for 2021? Russell Wilson wanted to leave, and then didn’t. A bunch of underwhelming offensive linemen re-signed. Seattle only had three picks in the draft and its earliest selection to reach for a Western Michigan wideout most had pegged as a Day 3 selection.
Can they keep this up? It will depend on the team’s blocking. Seattle’s strong yards before contact number was a function of Wilson’s scrambling -- the team’s tailbacks averaged a less impressive 2.4 YBC when you take away the QB’s carries. His propensity to end those runs with a slide also heavily affected the team’s yards after contact number, leaving Chris Carson to simultaneously look a little better and a little worse than his raw numbers suggest.
Carson was good last year, but he was also a top 10 running back when it came to yards before contact and a top 20 guy when it came to yards after -- his 2.2 YAC was the lowest of his NFL career. This factored into the relatively low cost two-year, $10.5 million contract he signed with Seattle this offseason. It’s a good thing the Seahawks got him back; the rotation behind him is decidedly unimpressive behind Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and Deejay Dallas.
If Carson can’t find holes or is lost for any significant time due to injury, the team’s rushing ranks will tank considerably. If he's healthy for 16 games and playing at his 2018 or 2019 level, Seattle will be just fine. He’ll only be 27 this season, so I’ll lean toward the latter.
Arizona Cardinals
Notable stat: Above average in most rushing categories despite the presence of Kenyan Drake
What’s changed for 2021? Drake departed for Las Vegas, despite the fact the Raiders had bigger holes to fill, have Josh Jacobs as their RB1, and needed to pay him $11 million to do so. His spot in the rotation will go to James Conner, whose terrible Pittsburgh rush offense will earn a deeper dive on Friday. AJ Green and Rondale Moore have arrived to contribute to Kliff Kingsbury’s field-stretching passing offense. Rodney Hudson and Brian Winters will help an underrated offensive line continue to punch above its weight class.
Can they keep this up? Losing Drake and promoting Chase Edmonds into the RB1 role should help; Edmonds averaged more YAC and fewer carries per broken tackle than the higher-profile veteran with whom he shared the backfield. Drake’s biggest contribution in Arizona was at the goal line, where he turned 21 carries inside the five-yard line into nine touchdowns (42.9 percent scoring rate). Edmonds was decidedly not the guy in those situations -- one carry, -1 yard -- but Conner should be. He turned his nine goal line carries into five TDs (55.6 percent) for Pittsburgh and its significantly less effective offensive line last fall.
Conner was, by most accounts, more efficient than Drake when it came to hitting holes and making linebackers miss. He’s also roughly one-third the salary of the man he’s replacing, which is another plus. He’ll thrive if the Arizona offensive line can continue to improve. That unit was decidedly the worst in football in 2018, then ranked 22nd in PFF’s rankings in 2019 before jumping to 12th last season. But that group actually saw its tailbacks’ YBC drop from 2.7 to 2.4 last year, which suggests this improvement may not be sustainable.
In short, moving from Drake to Conner may be an inexpensive upgrade. But the team’s offensive line may not be good enough to make it count on a regular basis.