NFL Week 7 picks for teams most in need of a win
It's still early in the season, but not too early for some teams to be in must-win mode.
If Week 6 was about finding out which winning teams would stay winning, Week 7 is about which teams can earn a much-needed victory. In that sense, it’s not a coincidence that the four teams on their bye include the only undefeated squad (Eagles), two who are 5-1 (Bills, Vikings), and the defending Super Bowl champs (Rams).
Both the Saints and Cardinals were limping into their Thursday night matchup at 2-4. Not only would a win boost them mentally, but it’d also let them stay within striking distance of the divisional lead (no team is above .500 in either the NFC South or NFC West).
Days after a paltry nine-point showing against the Seahawks, Arizona’s offense showed a pulse in a 42-34 win — and also got a major assist (two!) from its defense:
The Cardinals are the only 1-0 team so far in Week 7, at least in literal terms, but two others are winners in the figurative sense: the 49ers, who traded for Christian McCaffrey in the middle of their rival’s primetime game, and the Panthers, who snagged a pretty good draft haul in the exchange.
That might be the only win the 49ers and Panthers get this week, at least if Vegas is correct. Here’s a look at the Week 7 odds, from DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Giants at Jaguars (-3)
Packers at Commanders (+4.5)
Buccaneers at Panthers (+13)
Lions at Cowboys (-6.5)
Falcons at Bengals (-6.5)
Browns at Ravens (-6.5)
Colts at Titans (-2.5)
Texans at Raiders (-7)
Jets at Broncos (-1)
Chiefs at 49ers (+2)
Seahawks at Chargers (-5)
Steelers at Dolphins (-7.5)
Bears at Patriots (-8)
This week, I’ve decided to turn my attention to the teams that are most desperate for a win — for confidence-building purposes and/or to prove that they’re still a threat. As a reminder, if you want picks for every game, be sure to check out Christian’s article at FTW.
Post Route country, let’s ride.
Who needs a win and will get it
It’s only Week 7, so it’s quite subjective as to who really needs a win. I left off the Packers and Bucs, two teams that have played below expectations to this point. I’m still convinced that they’ll rebound before it’s too late — and they have two easy opponents this Sunday. If they lose again this weekend, however, then I might change my tune.
The schedule doesn’t get easier: Bengals over Falcons
Last year, the Bengals started off hot, cooled a bit in the middle of the season, and then hit their stride late, riding it all the way to the Super Bowl. To follow a similar path this year, they’ll need to take advantage of the easiest remaining part of their schedule.
Joe Burrow agrees, without saying the word “easy”:
And to be fair to the Falcons, they’re a tough out for anyone. They’ve won three of their last four games and all three of their losses have been decided by one score. Marcus Mariota is coming off his best game of the season, and he can be dangerous as a runner against a Cincy defense that is a bit vulnerable against the run.
Overall, though, the Bengals have played well on defense — particularly in the second half — while the offense has maybe, hopefully started to settle into things again. Not so coincidentally, Burrow has taken fewer sacks the last three weeks than he did in the first game of the season. And wouldn’t you know, the Falcons have totaled fewer sacks than every team but the Lions and Raiders, both of whom have already had their bye week.
I think the Falcons can make it interesting, as they are wont to do, but the Bengals should be able to bring out the offensive firepower in front of their home crowd.
Any hope for a turnaround starts now: Raiders over Texans
The Raiders and Texans are fresh off bye weeks that were similar in one sense. Both teams used the time off for a bit of self-reflection to figure out why they only have one win, despite being competitive each week. And both teams also had to deal with a little drama, though for the Raiders it was bad (Davante Adams facing a misdemeanor for pushing a cameraman) and for the Texans it was good (don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Jack Easterby).
The similarities end there, however. The Raiders have more talent and should be, and arguably are, better than their 1-4 record. If they have any chance of reversing their fortunes, it has to begin in Vegas on Sunday. I’m not sure I expect a complete turnaround this season, but I do expect the home team to win, even if I’d like to see the Texans get a bounce for finally dumping that charlatan Easterby.
It just feels like they’re due: Broncos over Jets
Based on what we’ve seen the last few weeks, the Jets should probably be favored in Denver this week. They’ve won three in a row since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup, and they’re perfect on the road so far this season, including last week’s double-digit win in Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost two straight overtime games, scoring exactly one touchdown in that time. That’s in part because Russell Wilson has played like his body has been inhabited by 2021 Ben Roethlisberger. Now, an injury might sideline him.
Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams against a washed/injured Russell Wilson or Brett Rypien? Doesn’t seem good for the Broncos!
But Zach Wilson hasn’t been lighting it up either (one passing touchdown, two interceptions), and the top-tier Denver defense has been more than carrying its weight. Bradley Chubb and Baron Browning (so happy to see him be used properly!) could pressure Wilson into mistakes.
Mostly, though, this is one of those gut feelings. It simply seems like the Broncos are due for a little good luck, and the Jets are due for a loss.
Who needs a win and won’t get it
Unless Week 7 gets extremely weird, other teams are destined to join the Saints and lose this weekend. For some, it’d be disappointing but not necessarily a huge setback. For others, well, let’s take a look.
The division lead is on the line for both: Titans over Colts
Last week, the Colts avenged their earlier loss to the Jaguars. This week, they can do the same to the Titans — and take the lead in the AFC South in the process.
The problem with that is the Colts have dropped four straight to the Titans, who will be rested after their bye week. Although Indy’s offense could get Jonathan Taylor back this week, I think its defense — still without Shaquille Leonard and Kwity Paye — could be the deciding factor, specifically in the red zone.
That’s where Tennessee’s offense thrives:
Indianapolis’ defense, on the other hand, has given up touchdowns on 64.7 percent of opponents’ trips to the red zone, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. That’s why I think the Colts will have to wait another year to get their revenge on the Titans.
The losing streak continues: Ravens over Browns
The Ravens and Browns could both use a win right now; Baltimore because of its inability to hold a lead, Cleveland because of its inability to be normal. However, the Browns are in worse shape, despite being just a game back of the division-leading Ravens.
Cleveland is on a three-game losing streak and was most recently on the wrong end of a New England beatdown. The defense is in rooooough shape, with injuries only partially to blame for its incompetence.
Both teams can run the ball well; both defenses aren’t particularly good at stopping the run. The Ravens are better at the latter, though, and have a bigger threat at quarterback. Lamar Jackson could also be getting No. 1 receiver Rashod Bateman back, while Cleveland’s CB1, Denzel Ward, remains out with a concussion.
I don’t know that the Ravens have done enough to earn our trust this year, but the Browns are much more dysfunctional. I think their slide will continue.
Seeing ghosts part 2: Patriots over Bears
The Bears don’t really *need* a win. They’re a rebuilding team that plays like one (if we’re being generous). What they need, after falling on their faces twice in primetime this year, is to at least look like they’re making progress.
The surest sign that won’t happen on Monday night? Bill Belichick heaping praise on them:
Exactly three years ago, the Patriots faced a young quarterback on a bad team who was struggling to see the field. That was Sam Darnold in his infamous “I’m seeing ghosts” Monday Night Football game.
Justin Fields seems to be in a similar position when he’s throwing the ball right now (when he runs, though, his vision is excellent). That’s not entirely on Fields, who has by far the worst supporting cast in the NFL. But I’m scared for what Belichick will do to him this week.
Spooky season indeed.