NFL Week 6: You take the good, you take the bad
You take them both and there you have this NFL season.
We are one-third of the way through this NFL season, and I’m at a loss to explain what is happening around the league at any given moment. Chaos isn’t the right word; unpredictable is closer but suggests the product on the field is better than it is.
Maybe it’s just as simple as this: the NFL is weird right now!
This Sunday started off in surprising fashion, with a few outcomes that we almost never see.
It ended with a logjam of mediocrity:
In fact, three divisions — the AFC North, NFC South, and NFC West — have zero teams above .500.
I can’t make sense of the NFL in its current state, but I can take inventory of where things stand after Sunday. A quick note first: I’m focusing just on teams that played on Sunday, so the Thursday and Monday night games aren’t factored into my breakdown. Same for the four teams that were on their bye in Week 6.
Let’s get to the other 24 then.
Teams that I know are good
Bills, Chiefs, Eagles
Given the stakes involved, a regular season matchup can’t really compare to a postseason one. That’s especially true when you’re talking about a legendary playoff game like the Bills and Chiefs put on last January. Their rematch on Sunday didn’t live up to that all-timer, but it was still a great battle between, arguably, the two best teams in the NFL.
Just like last time, the Bills and Chiefs were tied after the first quarter, second quarter, and third quarter. This time, however, there would be no overtime. Josh Allen engineered a 12-play, 76-yard touchdown drive — complete with an “oh woooow” hurdle — to put Buffalo ahead with just over a minute to go. In January, that would have been enough time for both offenses to score a couple times. On Sunday, though, defense was more than just a concept. The Bills picked off Patrick Mahomes two plays later and sorta avenged their loss in the Divisional Round.
Later that evening, the Eagles took down the Cowboys to stay unbeaten, Philly’s first 6-0 start since 2004 (when they went to the Super Bowl). On a night when the Eagles’ normally potent offense totaled a season-low 268 yards, the defense was more than willing to take over. Philadelphia’s defense forced three turnovers, improving their NFL-best (by a lot!) point differential to +12.
Teams that I think are good despite a couple setbacks
Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens
This group of teams isn’t at the same level as the one above them, but I think they can all be playoff contenders, with a little bit better luck — and a bit better play.
As admirable a job as Cooper Rush has done filling in for Dak Prescott, it was clear this weekend just how much the Cowboys need their QB1 back (which he should be soon). Facing a stout defense for the first time this season, Rush threw his first interception of 2022. Then his second. Then his third.
Dallas’ defense is in great shape. The Cowboys’ running game and special teams are getting it done, too. The passing game, both at quarterback and wide receiver, is their biggest shortcoming at the moment. If they can get those on track, then the ‘Boys will be back in town … uh, I mean, the postseason.
Last season’s AFC champs have had a rocky start to the season. They won on Sunday to improve to 3-3, which is good enough to be tied atop their division. But they also needed late-game heroics from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, in New Orleans of course, against the shorthanded Saints:
If that play and that victory help unlock the Bengals’ one-time electric offense, then they will probably be fine going forward. Their three losses have been decided by a combined eight points, and with a more consistent offense, they can prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.
The Ravens, meanwhile, simply need to stop shooting themselves in the foot, particularly in the fourth quarter. They’ve led by double digits in all six of their games, and then brainfarted things away in half of them. Stop doing that and you’re golden.
Teams that will probably turn things around and be good again … but, uh, what is happening?
Bucs, Packers, Rams
These three familiar playoff fixtures, at least in the last few years, were all expected to contend again in 2022. Yet each is sitting at 3-3, looking like none of them want to actually play football.
Tom Brady, who unretired and potentially broke up his marriage only to lose to Mitchell Trubisky, took out his frustrations on his OL this week:
Brady has the worst QBR of his career through six games, as does Aaron Rodgers. But Rodgers is taking the opposite approach as Brady, to the extreme:
Maybe lay off the ayahuasca, dude.
Unlike the other two in this section, the defending Super Bowl champs earned a win on Sunday. They also trailed the Panthers in the third quarter, despite backup QB PJ Walker not throwing farther than one yard down the field.
History suggests these teams will bounce back. Perhaps a key player returns from injury, they make a trade before the deadline to bolster a weak position, or they merely find their groove again. It’s much too early to count them out.
But it’s not too early to point out that these three squads have all been playing like butt lately.
Teams that are probably good but are too injured to judge properly
Dolphins, 49ers
The Dolphins’ starting quarterback hasn’t made it through a game in each of the last three weeks, which coincidentally or not have all been losses.
Before that, they were riding high at 3-0. If Tua Tagovailoa is healthy enough to make his return next week, as expected, it should give Miami a much-needed boost. And we can probably again start to assess where the Dolphins stand in a competitive AFC East.
The 49ers entered Week 6 with the top-ranked defense in most metrics, including points allowed, yards allowed, and DVOA. This weekend, facing a surprisingly competent Falcons offense, they were down, like, 75 percent of their defensive starters (OK, six, but that’s still a lot!). And the injuries, as they often do with the Niners, just kept coming.
They should get a couple reinforcements next Sunday … against the Chiefs. So maybe it’s best to check in on the 49ers again in a couple weeks.
Teams that probably aren’t as good as their record but I’m happy for them
Vikings, Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons
The Vikings and Giants, who are both 5-1 under first-time head coaches, have defied expectations so far, thanks in large part to their ability to close out games. Minnesota has won four straight one-score games, while the Giants have come from behind in all of their wins.
Is that a sustainable strategy for either team? Probably not. Will it be enough to end their respective playoff droughts? Maybe so.
The Jets are 3-0 since Zach Wilson returned to the starting lineup, and to be honest, I’m not sure how they keep winning. Wilson’s stats this season are on par with his rookie year struggles: 56 percent completion rate, 572 passing yards, one passing TD, two interceptions, 73.9 passer rating, and a 47.8 QBR.
Other than their excellent special teams unit, the Jets don’t do anything particularly well (or poorly for that matter). They just find ways to make clutch plays down the stretch — and on the road. And they seem to be enjoying themselves, as they should:
The Falcons and Seahawks have fun offenses, shockingly, and pretty lousy defenses, unshockingly. Still, that’s been enough to get them to 3-3 and tied for first place in their divisions. I doubt they’ll be able to continue that pace, but at least when you tune in to their games, you never quite know what to expect.
Teams that probably are better than their record and I’m disappointed in them
Cardinals, Browns
The Cardinals and Browns are 2-4 and have major injuries (or absences) of their own. Still, they shouldn’t be in such a big hole this early on. For Arizona, blame its offensive troubles, which won’t be magically fixed by the return of DeAndre Hopkins.
And point the finger at Cleveland’s defense, which won’t be magically fixed by the eventual return of Deshaun Watson. That unit has been so atrocious that the Browns may have to make some changes, quickly, before the season spirals out of control.
Teams that are average but can still be dangerous
Jaguars, Colts, Steelers, Patriots, Saints
The Jaguars have two impressive wins and four one-score losses. They were almost 3-3 after Sunday, when Trevor Lawrence led a go-ahead touchdown drive with a couple minutes remaining. But the Colts, who were missing their top two running backs, rallied as time was winding down:
The Colts have had their share of ups and downs, but as their earlier win over the Chiefs proved, you have to take them seriously.
The same goes for the Steelers under Mike Tomlin. They managed to stun the Bucs, one week after Buffalo clobbered Pittsburgh. Rookie Kenny Pickett helped give the Steelers an early lead, and then when he was knocked out of the game, formerly benched Mitchell Trubisky closed it out.
When the Patriots drafted Bailey Zappe earlier this year, I half-jokingly said that he would do to Mac Jones what Tom Brady did to Drew Bledsoe.
And, uh, that faux prediction is starting to get more serious:
Whether it’s Zappe or just better playcalling, New England’s offense has looked much more potent with the rookie under center than it was with Jones, prior to his injury. The Patriots, who are at the bottom of the AFC East standings, might have a challenging road to get back to the postseason. But as long as the defense keeps playing lights out and special teams keep stepping up, then they’ll be a tricky opponent for anyone — no doubt making Bill Belichick proud, not that anyone could tell.
I debated whether to put the Saints in this category or the “too injured to judge” one up above. Even as their injuries pile up, they continue to be competitive … but they still make too many critical mistakes for me to deem them better than average right now.
Teams that are a dumpster fire
Panthers
Days after firing their coach, the Panthers had to turn to third-stringer PJ Walker to start at quarterback due Baker Mayfield’s and Sam Darnold’s injuries/suckiness. Then Walker was injured/sucked, so fourth-stringer Jacob Eason was called into duty. His one drive ended in an interception.
Oh, and while this was happening, receiver Robbie Anderson got into heated arguments with his WR coach:
That led interim coach Steve Wilks to kick Anderson out of the game.
The good news for both parties is that it took less than 24 hours for Anderson to get traded.