NFL Week 6 picks for winners only
This Sunday, there are *multiple* games between teams with winning records.
There’s good news and bad news as we enter Week 6. We have more than one matchup between teams with winning records this week! But the byes also begin, so that means a little less football from now through Week 14, when the last remaining teams will get that Sunday off.
More good news: The worst game on this week’s slate is already over! The Commanders’ 12-7 win over the Bears on Thursday night was pretty much as dreadful as we imagined it’d be. And for those of us who want nothing but the best for Justin Fields, it was just agonizing to watch. Fields made a few mistakes, but once again, his team failed him in numerous ways, perhaps none more so than his OC, as Richard Sherman convincingly argued on the postgame show.
No wonder Fields has to meditate in the middle of games:
But unlike Fields, the rest of us who suffered through TNF at least got to listen to a couple of Al Michaels gems. First he brought a dry wit; then he got serious when discussing the latest damning report about Dan Snyder, saying what most of us already believe: the league would love nothing more than for him to sell the Commanders.
We might have to wait a while for that to happen, if it ever does. Then again, I never thought Snyder would allow the team’s name to be changed, but the NFL is a powerful force.
Powerful enough to deliver more compelling football than we witnessed last week? I think so.
There are a few intriguing games this weekend, though not a lot of obvious upsets I see (which means Sunday is probably destined to go off the rails). These are the odds for the 13 other contests in Week 6, as listed at DraftKings (the favored team is in bold):
Jets at Packers (-7.5)
Ravens at Giants (+5.5)
Buccaneers at Steelers (+9.5)
49ers at Falcons (+4.5)
Vikings at Dolphins (+3)
Bengals at Saints (+3)
Patriots at Browns (-2.5)
Jaguars at Colts (-2.5)
Panthers at Rams (-10)
Cardinals at Seahawks (+2.5)
Bills at Chiefs (+3)
Cowboys at Eagles (-6.5)
Broncos at Chargers (-4.5)
Last week, my mom helped me out and picked every game. She took a few chances — some of which paid off and some of which didn’t — but still wound up with a winning record. This week, I’m going back to my normal routine of highlighting select matchups. As always, though, you can check out Christian’s picks for the entire week at FTW.
The winners who stay winning
To celebrate a better schedule (on paper anyway) this week, I decided to focus on the contests between teams that are both sitting above .500. Here’s who I think can keep their hot streak alive, listed in order of how confident I am in the pick.
There’s no place like home: Packers (3-2) over Jets (3-2)
There are valid reasons to believe the Jets could pull off an upset in Green Bay. The Jets are 2-0 with Zach Wilson as their starter, and they’re coming off a double-digit win over the Dolphins (who, granted, had to turn to their third-string quarterback after the first offensive drive).
Meanwhile, the Packers just traveled back from London, where they blew a lead against the Giants to drop to 3-2 for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era. Speaking of LaFleur, there are a couple familiar faces, ones who know his tendencies, on the opposite sideline: his good buddy, Jets coach Robert Saleh, and brother Mike, the OC.
But, the Packers haven’t lost at Lambeau Field this year, Wilson has thrown just one touchdown pass, and the Jets’ last two wins came against the Dolphins and Steelers, who were quarterbacked for the majority of the game by a rookie in his debut.
Aaron Rodgers is definitely not a newbie. Unless the Packers have an extremely long case of jet lag, I think they handle their business at home on Sunday.
The party isn’t over yet for this 4-win team: Vikings (4-1) over Dolphins (3-2)
I keep waiting for the Vikings to revert to their inconsistent ways. So far, though, they haven’t lost any games they were supposed to win, thanks in part to clutch play down the stretch. Their last three victories were all decided by late scores.
Is it the magic of a new coaching staff? Or merely bad opponents (the Lions, Saints, and Bears were the most recent)?
Either way, I don’t expect the Vikings to turn back into a pumpkin this week. Their offense is solid, and Miami’s defense has struggled this season. More importantly, however, Skylar Thompson is expected to get his first start while Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater remain in concussion protocol. That should handicap the Dolphins’ usually potent offense, as it did last week.
I’m still not sure how good the Vikings are — my sense is that they’re better than they were the past two seasons, but not quite as good as their record would suggest. But I guess we can figure that out at a later date.
But the party is over for this 4-win team: Ravens (3-2) over Giants (4-1)
The Ravens have collapsed in the second half of both of their losses this season. It would’ve been 3-for-3 if Lamar Jackson and Justin Tucker hadn’t bailed them out last Sunday night.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Giants have rallied from second-half deficits in three of their four wins this season (the only time they didn’t was against the Bears, when NY led most of the way). The early returns on Brian Daboll are positive; he currently has the second-best odds to take home Coach of the Year honors, after Nick Sirianni. The Giants have another possible advantage too: DC Wink Martindale was a longtime member of the Ravens’ coaching staff and has firsthand knowledge of trying to scheme against Jackson.
Scheming against Jackson and stopping him are two entirely different challenges, though. While the Giants’ strong start is admirable, I’m not sure how long it’ll last. Same for the Ravens’ propensity for late-game swoons. I’ll give the nod to the Ravens, who have the edge at quarterback and pretty much everywhere else, too.
Perfect stays perfect: Eagles (5-0) over Cowboys (4-1)
The Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team in the league. They are also probably due for a loss, as indicated by their close call against the Cardinals last week. The Cowboys are their biggest hurdle in the next month, too. Philly’s upcoming opponents are the Steelers, Commanders, Texans, and Colts.
Dallas fields the relentless defense needed to stymie Jalen Hurts, and even the best offensive line in the league — which the Eagles arguably have — will have a hard time containing Micah Parsons. The Cowboys have also had the Eagles’ number recently, winning seven of their last nine matchups.
But Philadelphia’s defense is no joke, either, and has shut down opposing WRs this season. I have my doubts that the same Cowboys game plan of “let the defense take over, run the ball, and don’t ask Cooper Rush to do too much” will work this time. The Eagles are too well-rounded, and Dallas is still too banged on offense, for me to go against the home team. But the Cowboys can return the favor in their rematch on Christmas Eve and avenge Santa Claus in the process.
Payback time: Bills (4-1) over Chiefs (4-1)
If I put together my own NFL power rankings, it would look something like this:
1. Bills
2. Chiefs
[big gap]
3. Eagles
So this matchup, between two comparably excellent teams, is a tricky one to assess. It always feels foolish to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially at home. He has more experience, and has had more success, than Josh Allen, even if Allen is nipping at his heels:
And yet, I’m taking Buffalo, which has been the more complete team — No. 1 in overall DVOA — thus far in 2022. The Bills have had nine months to stew over their epic, yet gutting playoff showdown against the Chiefs, and they added pieces (Von Miller in particular) this offseason to win these kinds of games.
It won’t make up for that overtime loss in January, but it could eventually propel the Bills to the No. 1 seed in the AFC — and the chance, maybe, to play host to the Chiefs this postseason.