NFL Week 7: Expect the unexpected ... and the expected too
The surprises keep coming, but there were a few predictable results this week too.
It was clear to me early this season that there weren’t going to be many trustworthy teams in the NFL in 2022. Last week, I could only confidently label three of them as “good,” with a few others on the periphery. I stand by that assessment this week, though there’s plenty of time to add (or subtract) from the top tier.
That’s about the extent of my certainty about the league right now. Still, in any given week in the NFL, even in a season this incomprehensible, there are always some surprises and some predictable outcomes.
Week 7 was no exception. Let’s talk about several expected and unexpected storylines that popped up again on Sunday and whether these are long-term trends or not.
Well, well, well. Look what we have here
Is it time to recalibrate our expectations for a couple of overperformers and underperformers?
The Bucs and Packers can’t stop the bleeding against bad competition
A few days ago, I said it wasn’t time to be worried about the 3-3 Packers and 3-3 Buccaneers, unless maybe they lost on Sunday to two subpar opponents.
Welllll, that’s what happened. Green Bay at least had a chance late in a two-point loss to Washington. The Bucs, however, never led against the Panthers, who seemed to be in full-on “tank for C.J. Stroud” territory after trading their best player, Christian McCaffrey, earlier in the week.
Yikes. But congrats to former XFL stars Taylor Heinicke and PJ Walker on their wins over future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. They now join the illustrious company of Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett as the most recent QBs to beat Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady head to head.
Just like last week against the Jets, the Packers had no rhythm on offense. They went a combined 0-for-7 on third and fourth down, and rushed for a mere 38 yards against a Washington defense susceptible to the run. Rodgers seems as confused as the rest of us about what exactly the Green Bay offense *is* right now:
But Rodgers also says he’s not panicking. After all, he was in a similar position six years ago, when the 4-6 Pack turned their season around and made it all the way to the NFC title game. This time, they need to jump-start their offense in a hurry due to the gauntlet they face: Four of their next five opponents are playoff contenders, starting with — uh oh — the Bills next Sunday night. How Green Bay handles this next month could decide the rest of its season.
The Bucs have looked much more discombobulated than the Packers, who won their matchup in Tampa in Week 3. Yet Brady and Co. have the advantage of playing in the NFC South, a division that they remain atop of — and that’s home to four teams with losing records. I’m not confident that anyone in the NFC South can unseat the Buccaneers, even if their upcoming schedule — against the Ravens, Rams, and Seahawks — is no cakewalk.
It’s normally prudent to give Brady the benefit of the doubt, anyway. I mean, it’s been 20 years since his team has had a losing record this late into the season. The Tampa defense has, for the most part, been doing its job, but the offense has been so anemic that I’m starting to believe that a vampire (Brady?!) drained it of all its life force. That’s the main reason to be concerned about the Bucs right now, even if I’m not anywhere close to declaring them DOA.
The Seahawks are all alone in first place in the NFC West
The Seahawks entered the season in rebuild mode. Geno Smith, who had been a backup since he was sucker punched by a Jets teammate in 2015, was named the starter at quarterback. They were projected to win five games.
It’s October, and Seattle is only one victory away from matching that total. At 4-3, the Seahawks are currently the only winning team in a usually competitive NFC West.
Their win over the Chargers on Sunday was a summation of their season so far. Smith, in the midst of a career-best year, was efficient and threw some absolute dimes. The running game was on point, most notably first-year back Kenneth Walker, who exploded for 168 yards and two touchdowns:
The defense has had its struggles outside its dynamic rookie cornerback duo, but it came to play for the second week in a row, a good sign that the unit is making progress.
I’m not sold on the Seahawks staying in first place in the division, particularly if DK Metcalf has to miss significant time. But it’s clear that 1) They’re much better than most of us expected them to be this year, 2) Their 2022 draft class is a hit, and 3) They are not a team to be taken lightly.
The Giants continue to be the most clutch team in the NFL
The Giants have won six games, tied for the most in the league. All six of those wins have been decided by one score, and five of them have come in the fourth quarter:
I keep thinking they’ll turn back into a pumpkin, but they keep proving me wrong. A healthier Saquon Barkley has been a huge reason for their success. So has Daniel Jones’ timely playmaking, a creative, offensive-minded coach who knows how to use his personnel, and an opportunistic defense that steps up when it matters most.
While I have to give them a ton of credit for getting to this point, I’m not convinced that they can maintain this same pace, or even that they’re all that *good.” That being said, with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, I’m starting to buy into the Giants as a playoff team.
That’s so obvious
And in the “no duh” category …
The Ravens and Browns make things interesting, don’t they?
With just under four minutes left in the game, and the Ravens leading the Browns by three points, Justice Hill fumbled and Cleveland recovered the ball at its own 16-yard line. Either the Ravens were once again going to blow a double-digit lead, or the Browns were going to lose in an “only the Browns!” kind of way.
Unsurprisingly, the latter won … er, lost out. Jacoby Brissett was moving the ball down the field and threw a nice pass to Amari Cooper that was almost the go-ahead touchdown, except Cooper was called for OPI and the score was nullified. Brissett scrambled on the replayed third down but came up a few yards short, setting up Cade York for a potential game-tying field goal.
Then the Browns were called for a super-confusing false start:
And York’s 55-yard attempt turned into a 60-yard attempt, which was, of course, blocked.
It was Cleveland’s fourth straight loss, and it was an extra excruciating loss because the Browns, especially their defense, had played better Sunday than they had in recent weeks. But if we’re being honest, even if York had made that long field goal try, the Ravens likely would have driven down the field for a Justin Tucker winning kick as time expired.
The Chiefs and Bengals are still capable of putting up points in a hurry
Last year, the Bengals had one of the most explosive offenses in the league, thanks in large part to the chemistry between Joe Burrow and deep threat Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow and the offense had gotten off to a much more subdued start to this season, though their win over the Saints last week suggested that they were finally back on track.
If there were any doubts about that, Burrow put those to rest this week:
His first touchdown throw came in the first two minutes of the game: a 60-yard pass to Tyler Boyd. Two others to Chase — a 32-yarder and a 41-yarder — put Cincy up 28-7 before the first half was even over.
The Bengals might not be able to erupt for three 30+ yard touchdowns each week against teams that aren’t the Falcons, but it’s nice to know that their big-play offense is still alive and well, ready to break out at a moment’s notice.
The Chiefs haven’t had trouble scoring this year, except in their two losses, most recently a 24-20 defeat to the Bills. Buffalo’s top-ranked defense mostly kept Patrick Mahomes from pulling off his Houdini act. The question on Sunday was whether another highly rated defense, the 49ers’, could do the same.
That’s how it looked in the first half. Then the second half rolled around and Mahomes led four touchdown drives, the longest of which took four minutes.
In seemingly a blink of the eye, a five-point lead turned into a 44-23 blowout. Perhaps more encouraging for the Chiefs, and terrifying for their opponents, is that the offseason additions are fitting right in:
The Jets’ defense comes through … and the Broncos’ offense still can’t do anything
The Jets are 5-2 and have won four straight with Zach Wilson in the lineup, despite their young quarterback not completing a pass that traveled more than 8 yards on Sunday.
Once again, they have their defense to thank for the win, with an assist from the Broncos’ putrid offense. From late in the third quarter through the fourth quarter, the Jets came up with an interception and turned Denver over on downs twice.
The Broncos have now dropped four games in a row and have scored just two touchdowns in the last three weeks. The blame can’t all be pinned on Russell Wilson’s regression, either, considering he was sidelined this week … and his backup did this:
The Jets will need more production from their offense going forward, which could be a challenge with Breece Hall’s injury. At least they know they can count on their defense to keep them in games.
That’s better than what the Broncos are dealing with: a defense that can keep them in games, and an offense that takes them right out of them. And there doesn’t appear to be an easy fix at the moment.