Week 6 picks: A Jaguars win and a Steeler revival?
All our straight-up picks for the NFL's Week 6 games.
Welcome to Week 6, which is in some ways just like any other Week 6 and in other ways a little different. Right on schedule, we have our first interim head coach situation this season. Until a few days ago, not many would’ve predicted the Raiders would be the first team looking for a new person in charge, but that’s the NFL for ya. It always keeps us on our toes, for better and worse.
Due to the new 17-game schedule, teams are only starting their byes now, when previously they would’ve begun earlier. Four teams are off this week, which elementary school taught me means there are only 14 games on the schedule.
And — not to completely wow you with my first grade math skills here — because we already have one game in the books, that leaves 13 more on the docket:
Now let’s go over a few of the most interesting matchups this weekend.
Sarah’s picks
I mostly stuck with the favorites last week and bounced back with a 12-4 record. I’m taking a similar approach this week but not strategically. It just so happens that situationally, I didn’t like many upsets … though I could be wrong (my picks in bold):
Dolphins at Jaguars
Packers at Bears
Bengals at Lions
Texans at Colts
Rams at Giants
Chiefs at Washington
Vikings at Panthers
Chargers at Ravens
Cardinals at Browns
Raiders at Broncos
Cowboys at Patriots
Seahawks at Steelers
Bills at Titans
I’m feeling most confident in these picks (Last week: 2-1)
Last week, for the first time this season, I whiffed on a game in this section. To be fair, I had no idea at the time what the Raiders would be dealing with over the weekend, but I also should’ve known better than to underestimate Justin Fields. He’s rebounded nicely from his disastrous starting debut. The Bears aren’t asking him to do too much, and he’s not trying to do too much either. That doesn’t mean I’m picking him to take down the Packers on Sunday, but I also won’t be overconfident in a Bears loss this time.
I learned a lesson, too: Don’t include three games in this section if there aren’t three games I’m feeling great about. I feigned more faith in the Raiders than I really had, but there’s no rule that I need to write about the same number of matchups each week. And if there were a rule like that, well, this is one-third my newsletter and I can break any rules I want!
On that note, I only chose to highlight two games in this section for Week 6, though it would’ve been three if the Bucs and Eagles hadn’t already played Thursday night.
First up is the Rams’ second trip to the East Coast, where they will meet the NFL’s version of Job, Daniel Jones (assuming he’s cleared as expected). After taking a nasty hit to the head last week in Dallas, Jones’ reward is … uh, facing off against Aaron Donald. Without his starting running back and, as always, a couple of receivers. Poor guy.
The early kickoff time for the Rams shouldn’t be a detriment. Under Sean McVay, they’re 7-2 in 10 a.m. PT games, including a win over the Colts this season.
Speaking of the Colts, they’ll host another 1-4 team coming off a loss that should’ve been a win. Both the Colts and Texans held a double-digit lead in the second half of their Week 5 contests, only to fritter it away. The Colts are the better team and because of that, more desperate. Even if Davis Mills impressed against the Patriots last week, he’s not in the same galaxy as Lamar Jackson, who tied the Colts in knots. Indy should be able to get back in the win column against an AFC South rival — especially if T.Y. Hilton, the Texans’ Kryptonite, makes his season debut.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks (Last week: 2-1)
Not long ago, I had circled this week as the time when the Jaguars would pick up their first win. They return to London, their home away from home, against a free-falling Dolphins team that should welcome back Tua Tagovailoa to the lineup. In the past several weeks, the Jags have been playing well for stretches … just not for a complete game yet. Maybe that will change early Sunday morning, like I once predicted. But right now, I can’t in good conscience put any trust in them.
Last week, I did put my trust in the Browns and technically they failed me with their back-and-forth loss to the Chargers. With all the in-game injuries they suffered, though, I can’t blame them too much and firmly believe they would’ve beaten the Chargers if they had been even a little bit healthier. As such, I’m going to give them a second chance and pick them to end the Cardinals’ perfect start to the season. The Browns can once again run all over their opponent, and while Kyler Murray is a unique challenge, the 49ers were able to slow him down a bit last week. If most of Cleveland’s best defenders don’t limp off the field again, I think the Browns can do the same. I know Myles Garrett is ready, anyway:
[Awkward transition from Garrett to a Steelers quarterback]
Ben Roethlisberger actually played OK last week against the Broncos, and the Seahawks will come to Pittsburgh with a much worse defense. They also won’t have Russell Wilson in the starting lineup for the first time in a decade. But I’m not really worried about Geno Smith; I’m worried about the rest of Seattle’s underperforming roster, so I went with the Steelers. Still, I can’t completely count on Big Ben to put together consecutive “eh, not that bad” games, and as we know, the Seahawks are weird. You just never know what you’re going to get with them.
Why I made these upset picks (Last week: 1-1)
Last week, I took the liberty of calling the Steelers over the Broncos an upset pick, even though the Steelers were a slight favorite at the time. That ended up working out: By Sunday, the Broncos were favored, but the Steelers, as I correctly guessed, won.
I won’t try that again this week, even though I don’t know what the Vikings-Panthers line will look like before kickoff. As of now, the Panthers are a 1-point underdog at home. While they have now lost two in a row, that seemed a little off to me, so I decided to take them in a mini-upset. Carolina’s shutdown secondary can expose Kirk Cousins for the full-on Monet that he is. Plus, I think last week’s loss to the Eagles, when the Panthers totally checked out in the second half, was a wake-up call to the players and coaching staff.
I would not normally choose to side against Lamar Jackson, particularly after his performance on Monday Night Football:
I’m blown away by what Jackson is doing, but it’s not sustainable every week, especially considering the constant injuries plaguing the Baltimore offensive line. How long can the Ravens keep living dangerously by needing Jackson’s superhuman efforts to bail them out in a late comeback? Perhaps not long, since this is not a Chargers team that is finding creative ways to lose winnable games.
Although LA’s defense didn’t look great last week, keep in mind that the team was in a shootout. Maybe it’s my recent fondness for Brandon Staley — thanks partly to his ballsiness on fourth downs but mostly to his response to Jon Gruden’s resignation. I just have a feeling the Chargers can at least give Lamar a little trouble.
Even if they struggle in that regard (no shame in that), we know the Chargers are equipped to win a high-scoring affair with Justin Herbert, and his rare skills, at the helm.
To put it another way:
Whatever that means!
Christian’s picks
I rolled with nine different road teams this week. It would have been 10 before I remembered Russell Wilson currently has pieces of his hand that are no longer attached to his hand. As much as I want to believe in Geno Smith, so much of the Seahawks is just Wilson doing otherworldly stuff to make us ignore the rest of the roster is held together with duct tape.
Somehow, only two of those nine road teams are underdogs — and even then, the Chargers and Cardinals barely fit the bill. That’s the foundation for a truly weird week of NFL football. Week 6 is host to a bunch of coin flip-ish games, starting with Great Britain’s continuing punishment for Brexit (1-4 Miami vs. 0-5 Jacksonville) and wrapping with a game the Titans need to win to prove they aren’t frauds.
Here’s what I’m thinking this week. Pickwatch — a great site that’s directed a bunch of you this way — might say differently because I made some changes before publishing.
Dolphins at Jaguars (+140)
Packers (-210) at Bears
Bengals (-190) at Lions
Texans at Colts (-500)
Rams (-475) at Giants
Chiefs (-280) at Washington
Vikings (-120) at Panthers
Chargers (+122) at Ravens
Cardinals (+140) at Browns
Raiders at Broncos (-190)
Cowboys (-180) at Patriots
Seahawks at Steelers (-250)
Bills (-240) at Titans
Pick I like the most
Cardinals over Browns.
There is a 5-0 team in the NFL and it is a 3.5-point underdog to the Browns. If you have a time machine, please try explaining this to people at any point in the last two decades and record their response for me. That will probably devolve into a “hey, what’s that thing in your hand, all our phones are Swedish bricks,” so please do so discreetly.
Anyway, the Cardinals will probably give up a bunch of rushing yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but Kyler Murray has the passing prowess and the receiving corps to answer and put the onus on Baker Mayfield to win this game late. Justin Herbert did that in Week 5 and Cleveland was powerless to respond.
Toughest game to pick
Vikings over Panthers.
This was originally Seahawks-Steelers before Russ’ finger decided it needed extra corners. Now it’s Vikings-Panthers, a showdown between two truly inscrutable teams. Is Carolina headed for another collapse like in 2020? Are the Vikings the team that beat Seattle by 13 or the one that nearly lost to the Lions? My choice came down to which outcome would frustrate me more, and OF COURSE Kirk Cousins won out.
Upset pick I like the most
I’ve got a few! That Cardinals game is up there, and the Chargers have earned my faith after the last two weeks.
Instead, I’m gonna be bold and say the Jaguars, propelled by a nation that’s learned to tolerate them and may not know exactly who Urban Meyer is yet. The Jaguar offense is rising while the Dolphins will get a jolt from Tua Tagovailoa’s return -- only he’s less than a month removed from a fractured rib and, let’s be honest, hasn’t exactly lit the league on fire when healthy. His pinpoint passes helped beat the Patriots in Week 1, but he still has a 74.0 passer rating on the season. Even if he comes back strong, he’s not going to fix the league’s worst running game or a 30th-ranked defense.
Those lapses were all I needed to pick the Jags — the NFL’s equivalent of a warm pint of beer in a place that laps those up. Is this a stupid pick? Probably! Did I like it a lot more when it was Jacoby Brissett behind center? Absolutely. But I’m gonna roll with Jacksonville anyway because I am a dumb, unreasonable man, which coincidentally is printed in Latin across the bottom of the Jacksonville city flag.