How long until the NFL's unbeaten teams lose and the winless teams win?
Five teams remain undefeated and five are still searching for their first victory. We predict when those streaks will end for each one of them. Plus, TNF picks!
Each season, the last team to stay unbeaten has bragging rights of sorts. It’s an accomplishment to start the year on a tear, whether that streak is five games long like the 2017 Chiefs or 11 games like the 2020 Steelers. However, it’s been a bit of a curse too. In the last decade, no team that has been the last to lose has gone on to win a Super Bowl. In fact, only the 2006 Colts have achieved that feat since the start of the millennium.
On the flip side, the teams that stay winless for the longest are pretty much screwed unless their goal is to land the No. 1 pick in the draft. In the last five seasons, that’s happened four times. The only exception is the 2020 Jets, who ended up with the No. 2 pick.
We’ll see if both of those trends hold up this year, but first, we need to figure out who will be the last undefeated squad standing and who will be the last to notch its first win of the season. Below, we offer our predictions based on what we know right now. Circumstances, especially regarding injuries, change quickly. And even though the Post Route crew shows off our game picking skills each week, this is still the NFL: upsets happen.
So while these predictions may need to be revised after this week, here’s when we think the 3-0 teams will lose a game and when the 0-3 teams will finally win a game.
The undefeated
The Steelers were the last team to lose in 2020. That did not turn out to be a harbinger of what was to come. Despite reeling off 11 straight wins to start the season, the Steelers dropped five of their last six games, including a loss to the Browns in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Right now, five teams are trying to stay unbeaten for as long as possible, without following in the Steelers’ footsteps and biffing the final part of the season.
Denver Broncos
Closest win: 23-13 vs. Jaguars
I am all aboard the Teddy Train, but even a Bridgewater homer like me can see the flaws in Denver’s resume. They’ve beaten three teams. Those teams have beaten zero teams. No franchise in the NFL has had an easier road to travel than the Broncos, but that changes with the Ravens, Raiders, and Browns all looming over the next four weeks.
Expect their first loss to come: Week 6 vs. the Raiders. I want to believe Denver can handle Baltimore this Sunday. Denver’s destroyed a lineup of bad quarterbacks and can take advantage of Lamar Jackson’s lack of targets. The Ravens’ defense is no longer the death star it’s been in years prior. So let’s move beyond that and past the offensively challenged Steelers and to a mid-October game against Vegas, who ruins everything.
Las Vegas Raiders
Closest win: 31-28 (OT) vs. Dolphins
The Raiders beat Baltimore in a wild season opener, then handled Pittsburgh (not looking super impressive as the season wears on) and barely toppled Jacoby Brissett in Week 3. Derek Carr looks great, but can an undermanned defense continue to punch above its weight class?
Expect their first loss to come: Week 4 at the Chargers. The Raiders, returning to one of the places they’ve called home, may have homefield advantage in a stadium the Chargers may never truly sell out. It will not matter, as consistency is the one thing a Jon Gruden team fears most. Justin Herbert is the best pocket passer Vegas has faced, and he should be able to put a dent in the Raiders’ defensive ranks.
Carolina Panthers
Closest win: 19-14 vs. Jets
The 3-0 Panthers are a pleasant surprise early this season. Sam Darnold has been rescued from the pits of football hell (that’s not hyperbole … I’m pretty sure Adam Gase is a demon. Those eyes!). With a real coach and a real offensive coordinator, Darnold’s putting up career-high numbers across the board: completion percentage (68.2), yards per pass attempt (8.3), passing yards per game (296), passer rating (99.0), and QBR (66.5). The defense is currently the most efficient in the league and also ranks first in yards allowed and second in points allowed.
Those numbers might be a tad misleading because of the opposing quarterbacks they’ve encountered: two rookies and the bad version of Jameis Winston. But even if they can’t maintain this exact pace, the Panthers have mostly winnable games in the near future, until their schedule turns difficult in the last four weeks of the season (at Buffalo, at New Orleans, and a home-and-away against Tampa).
Expect their first loss to come: Week 4 in Dallas. The Cowboys are hot right now, and the Panthers will be missing a couple of key players (Christian McCaffrey, Jaycee Horn) due to injury. Newly acquired cornerback CJ Henderson could make his Panthers debut, but he’s also nursing a groin injury. Dak Prescott should fare better than the three previous QBs have against the Carolina defense this season.
Arizona Cardinals
Closest win: 34-33 vs. Vikings
The Cardinals annihilated the Titans, needed a late field goal miss to hang on against the Vikings, and then nearly lost to the Jaguars before realizing who they were playing. It’s been a bit more of an up-and-down than 3-0 suggests, but this is the start Kliff Kingsbury so badly needed to avoid landing on the hot seat after two playoff-less years to start his NFL coaching career.
Expect their first loss to come: Week 4 at the Rams. LA has a top-three scoring offense and a top-10 scoring defense. While their secondary may struggle with Arizona’s myriad weapons through the air, Matthew Stafford’s grenade-lobbing passing game gives the Rams the leverage to win any shootdown they may get locked into.
Los Angeles Rams
Closest win: 27-24 vs. Colts
Everything is going according to plan so far for the Rams. Matthew Stafford looks like the missing piece in their quest to deliver a Super Bowl to Los Angeles. The offense sits atop the offensive DVOA rankings, while Stafford leads the league in QBR (82.6) and net yards gained per pass attempt (9.41) and Cooper Kupp is first in receiving yards (367), catches (25), and TD receptions (5). Plus, the defense is still scary and able to generate constant pressure, despite losing DC Brandon Staley to the Chargers. Of course, it pays to have Aaron Donald anchor your defensive line.
The Rams are coming off a statement win over the defending Super Bowl champions and are hoping to carry that momentum through their next couple of games against NFC West rivals. Their schedule turns easy again after that, meaning if the Cardinals or Seahawks can’t trip them up, the Rams could be heading into November as an (the only?) unbeaten team in the NFL.
Expect their first loss to come: In Week 10, one streak will end and another will continue. The Rams will suffer their first loss of the season in San Francisco — excuse me, in Santa Clara — which will mark the Rams’ fifth straight loss to the 49ers. Clearly Kyle Shanahan, who coached with Sean McVay early in their careers, knows what makes his friend tick. It probably also helps that Shanahan spent part of his Cabo vacation studying how to beat Stafford. (Appreciate the hustle, but enjoy your vacation next time, Kyle!)
The winless
Last year, the Jets were the final team to get in the win column … and it took them until Week 15. This year, five teams are hoping it won’t take them that long to secure their first W — and one of them is, once again, the Jets.
New York Jets
Closest loss: 19-14 loss vs. Panthers
It’s bad enough that the Jets have been outscored 70-20 this season. What’s worse is that rookie quarterback Zach Wilson and the offense appear to be regressing. After a two-touchdown, one-interception game in Week 1, Wilson has since thrown six picks and the Jets have scored exactly zero touchdowns. The No. 2 pick has been sacked an NFL-high 15 times, while his receivers have been plagued by drops and, in the case of Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder, injuries.
If there’s room for optimism, it’s this: The Jets have already faced three top-10 defenses, which won’t be the case every week. Three of their next five matches — the Titans, Falcons, and Colts — will be a reprieve of sorts, against near the bottom in defensive DVOA. And their own defense isn’t terrible, led by playmakers C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams.
Expect their first win to come: In Week 5, the Jets will travel overseas to play the Falcons in the first NFL game in the UK since 2019. But that seems a little too obvious — and early — for their first win of the season. After all, the Jets’ only two wins last season came in December against two playoff teams (Rams, Browns). I think the trip abroad might be a little too taxing for a young team like the Jets, who will have to wait a little longer to get off the schneid. I say it’ll come when they visit the Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. A shorter week + a probably injured Carson Wentz = a chance for the Jets to steal a win.
Indianapolis Colts
Closest loss: 27-24 vs. Rams
The Colts have been competitive in all three of their losses. They just haven’t held the lead for very long in any of them. Maybe that’s one reason their ground game hasn’t been able to do much yet: They’re often playing from behind. Quarterback Carson Wentz being perpetually injured hasn’t helped matters. When the Colts do get into the red zone, the offense has had trouble turning those trips into points (they rank just No. 29 in red zone conversions).
The defense has its own problems stopping opponents in pivotal situations, coming in at No. 22 in both third-down and red zone defense. But even with the injuries and slow start, the Colts have too much talent on the roster to stay winless for long. Their next best opportunity is against the Dolphins, and old friend Jacoby Brissett, in Week 4.
Expect their first win to come: However, I don’t think they’ll be able to taste that first victory quite so soon. The Colts are a mess right now, and it’ll take a little more time before they can right the ship … like in Week 6 when they have their first matchup of the season with the Texans. Ah the Texans, good for what ails you … unless you’re the next team on this list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Closest loss: By final score, 23-13 loss vs. Broncos. But in spirit, 31-19 vs. Cardinals
The Jaguars won their first game of the 2020 season, after which they tweeted this:
Since then, they’ve bumbled their way to an 18-game losing streak, one shy of the longest NFL skid in my life (the 2007-09 Lions). If the Jags’ slide lasts through November, they’ll have tied the 1976-77 Bucs’ ignominious 26-game losing streak, the worst in the Super Bowl era. (The Chicago Cardinals dropped 29 games in a row from 1942-45, but they likely had other things on their mind, like y’know, World War II.)
Luckily for the Jaguars, I think they’ll break through with a win before they set or tie an NFL record no team wants to own. Though their loss to the Cardinals was their seventh in a row by double digits, the Jags led until late in the third quarter and showed more promise than they had all season. The running game, led by James Robinson, finally got going. Trevor Lawrence went 22 of 34, good for a season-high 65 percent completion rate (alas, he also completed a couple of passes to the other team). Jamal Agnew continues to be a standout on special teams.
Mostly the Jaguars looked more like we expected them to all season: not a good team — they’re still too inexperienced for that — but one that can give their opponents, even those likely bound for the playoffs, a bit of a scare.
Expect their first win to come: It’d only be fitting if the team that’s played the most UK games ended their losing streak in London. In Week 6, the Jaguars will “host” the Dolphins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. That won’t just mark the Jags’ return to London, their eight trip since 2013. That’s also when Tua Tagovailoa will be eligible to return from IR. Perhaps he’ll be rusty (and jet-lagged), thus allowing Lawrence to get another head-to-head win over the Alabama alum — and his first as an NFL starter.
(Bonus: If Jacksonville’s slump ends in another country, we can still tease them a little until they finally win on American soil again.)
New York Giants
Closest loss: 30-29 vs. Washington
Against all odds, Daniel Jones is in the midst of his best season yet — and he’s only turned the ball over once! Unfortunately for him, the Giants as a team are the same loser product as in Jones’ first two seasons in the league, despite Saquon Barkely returning to the lineup and the offseason addition of Kenny Golladay.
This team has looked trash-can-kicking bad the past two weeks in particular, letting two wins slip through their fingers. Yet somehow, even with Joe Judge as their head coach until he’s inevitably fired and same for Jason Garrett as OC, they’re ranked a decent No. 18 in overall DVOA. The Giants are absolutely capable of winning games, especially in the NFC East. They just have the bad luck of facing the toughest stretch of their schedule over the next two months: at New Orleans, at Dallas, vs. LA Rams, vs. Carolina, at Kansas City, vs. Raiders, at Tampa Bay. Yikes.
Expect their first win to come: The Giants probably won’t stay winless until Week 12, which means they’ll need to upset someone along the way. I think they can catch the Panthers, who are bound to regress, at home in Week 7.
Detroit Lions
Closest loss: 19-17 vs. Ravens
The Lions aren’t good, but they are interesting. They turned a 38-10 Week 1 deficit into a 41-33 fourth-quarter score with possession deep in 49ers territory. In Week 2, they led the Packers at halftime and nearly took a hatchet to Aaron Rodgers’ Last Dance bonafides. They led the Ravens with three seconds left before this happened:
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but you should watch Detroit. For two quarters at most, but still …
Expect their first win to come: Week 13 vs. the Vikings. Minnesota’s gotta get to 8-9 somehow.
Thursday Night Football picks: Jaguars vs. Bengals
On paper, this matchup carries a Thursday Night Football poopfest stench to it. The Jaguars and Bengals haven’t played more TNF games than other teams. It only feels that way because whenever they do, the product is usually, like, 2.0 passer rating bad.
The Bengals are actually pretty decent, though, led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase’s strong connection on offense and a resurgent defense that can get after the quarterback.
Urban Meyer might have won a lot of games in the state of Ohio, but if you were paying attention earlier in this newsletter, you may have noticed we did not predict the Jags would end their losing streak in Week 4.
That was a hint that we were all taking the Bengals this week. Well, that and because we’ve seen both of these teams play this season.
Good work as always!