Who ordered the Week 5 picks?
We deliberate over a couple of key AFC matchups ... and, oh god, Jets-Falcons in London.
This week, the biggest story in the NFL had nothing to do with the on-field product. Instead, it was about how one beleaguered coach chose to spend his Friday night. I have no desire to weigh in on the Urban Meyer saga — which has been covered by everyone from the usual sports outlets to TMZ to People Magazine to The Daily Show with Trevor Noah — other than to say I simply feel relief. Relief that I don’t have to report on this news, and relief as an Ohio State fan that when the current head coach trends on Twitter, it’s because he revealed he has no plans to shave his beard.
As we head into Week 5, there are, thankfully, other storylines to monitor that have to do with actual football. Several players joined new teams recently, and at least two of them — Josh Gordon with the Chiefs and Jakeem Grant with the Bears — are expected to make their debut. (Jaylon Smith likely won’t play for the Packers this Sunday and Stephon Gilmore will have to wait a couple more weeks until he’s ready to go for the Panthers.)
The NFL returns to London after last year’s Covid-related absence, which means that the day’s action will start at 9:30 a.m. ET … though it’s Falcons-Jets, so maybe just sleep in. Luckily, this weekend is also blessing us with two pivotal meetings between four of the AFC’s best teams. Will Browns-Chargers and Bills-Chiefs be a preview of what’s to come in January? We won’t offer a prediction on that just yet, but we will give our picks on those specific matchups, as well as the rest of the Week 5 slate:
We’re all 1-0 so far this week. Let’s dig in on some of the other Week 5 contests.
Sarah’s picks
In Week 3, I had my best week of the season with a 13-3 finish. In Week 4, I regressed to the mean with a 9-7 record. What does that mean for Week 5? Who knows! But even if it’s not quite as tricky as last week, there are a few sneaky-hard games on deck (my picks in bold):
Jets at Falcons
Packers at Bengals
Lions at Vikings
Broncos at Steelers
Dolphins at Bucs
Saints at Washington
Eagles at Panthers
Titans at Jaguars
Patriots at Texans
Bears at Raiders
Browns at Chargers
Giants at Cowboys
49ers at Cardinals
Bills at Chiefs
Colts at Ravens
I’m feeling most confident in these picks (Last week: 3-0)
If the Jaguars lose to the Titans as expected Sunday, the conversation will once again turn to Urban Meyer and how he was a distraction for his team in the leadup to this AFC South matchup. That’s not the reason I’m confident in the Titans — a rarity, considering how untrustworthy they are — this week, though the presence of Meyer is a major factor.
Mike Vrabel was on the Ohio State staff at the start of Meyer’s tenure in Columbus, and there were rumors, some confirmed and some not, of him butting heads with other coaches — including Meyer. I don’t know what is and isn’t true, but I know the guy who posted the videos of Meyer from last weekend, and he’s plugged into the Ohio State football world. So when he says this, I believe him:
Also, the Jaguars are pretty bad!
I feel guilty for picking against Justin Fields again (that backfired last week!), especially since I know Uno Fields was helping him prepare for the Raiders. But I think the Raiders’ defensive line, which has racked up 31 QB hits this season, can make it tough on the rookie … not as much as the Browns did, but certainly more than the Lions. And with David Montgomery out for a month, that puts even more attention and pressure on Fields, who is apparently a climate activist as well as QB1:
While the Chicago defense leads the NFL in sacks and could similarly harass Derek Carr, he’s ready to use Joey Bosa’s words last week as motivation to bounce back.
Finally, how much must it eat at Bill Belichick that he lost to Tom Brady due to a missed kick (and Belichick’s own mismanagement)? He will now take his anger out on the Texans and poor Davis Mills.
I’m feeling least confident in these picks (Last week: 1-2)
I don’t know why we’re subjecting our British pals to Jets-Falcons (revenge for their treatment of Meghan Markle?), but at least they’ll get to witness a balanced matchup, in that either side could surprisingly win or embarrassingly lose. I’m giving the nod to the Falcons, even though Calvin Ridley won’t suit up, because the Jets are the younger team and might be more thrown off by the travel and the foreign atmosphere. It’s the Falcons, though, so I don’t feel good about this decision at all.
I also picked the Falcons’ biggest rival to win when the Saints visit Washington. I’m counting on the Saints to continue alternating between a good game one week and a bad game the next. That means it’s time for the former. Perhaps last week’s loss to the Giants, in which the offense went stagnant, will convince Sean Payton to open up the playbook a little more. Although Washington’s defense has been a major disappointment in 2021, that could change any game now.
The Sunday Night Football showdown between the Chiefs and Bills is a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game, which was a comfortable win for Kansas City. The Bills have looked like the better team this season, but the Chiefs are more battle-tested. I know a Bills win would probably mean more to them, a statement that the AFC will go through them in 2021. And I know the KC defense has been dog poop.
It’s just … Patrick Mahomes, at home, in primetime. I’m reluctant to bet (theoretically) against him.
Why I made these upset picks (Last week: 0-2)
There were a few upsets last week in the NFL; I didn’t happen to pick any of them, however. I’m trying to rebound this week, but there weren’t many potential upsets that spoke to me.
The only official underdog I’m going with in Week 5 is the Browns, who will visit the Chargers (I don’t expect Cleveland fans to completely take over SoFi Stadium, but we should hear some of them barking through the TV). The Browns have won three in a row, thanks mostly to their defense and running game, both of which could give LA trouble. The Chargers haven’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Browns’ — the closest, per DVOA, would have been against the Cowboys, their only loss of the season. I think Myles Garrett and Co. can force Justin Herbert into making a mistake or two, though Baker Mayfield needs to play better for Cleveland to pull off the win.
The other game I’m highlighting in this section is Broncos-Steelers. Earlier this week, I saw this was a pick ‘em, but the Steelers are now a slight favorite. I could see that changing if Teddy Bridgewater is good to go for Sunday, and it seems to be trending that way.
After a little back and forth, I decided on the Steelers simply for one reason: It feels like they’re due for a win. It’ll probably take a game-changing play on defense or special teams to make it happen — Big Ben isn’t gonna be launching a 49-yard bomb like Lamar Jackson did last week against Denver — but the Steelers are capable of doing that. It’s the reason they have a win this season.
Christian’s picks
Last week’s picks were as rough as advertised; I picked two of the remaining four winless teams playing Sunday to shed their “0”s and somehow picked the entirely wrong two. This was my worst slate yet thanks to the entire city of New York (in reality: northern New Jersey) deflecting its schadenfreude to the Titans and Saints. If either of those teams misses the postseason by a single game I will lose my mind cackling in Week 17.
This week’s picks are easier, at least on the surface, so I went extremely chalky. My one chosen upset is an underperforming home team facing the club that just lost to the Giants. There are only three other games I picked where the favorite didn’t hit at least -160 at the sportsbook, so I figure there won’t be too much variation across the picking landscape this week. The only real toss-ups (kinda) are Denver-Pittsburgh, Cleveland-Los Angeles, and Bills-Chiefs. So let’s talk about them:
Jets at Falcons (-175)
Titans (-205) at Jaguars
Saints at Washington (+110)
Patriots (-420) at Texans
Lions at Vikings (-450)
Dolphins at Buccaneers (-500)
Packers (-160) at Bengals
Eagles at Panthers (-175)
Broncos at Steelers*(-117)
Browns at Chargers (-135)
Bears at Raiders (-240)
Giants at Cowboys (-300)
49ers at Cardinals (-230)
Bills at Chiefs (-145)
Colts at Ravens (-300)
Pick I like the most
The Browns are playing steady football, but Week 4’s slow march through the Swamp of Sadness in Minnesota suggests Baker Mayfield, playing with a sprained labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, is not currently equipped for a shootout. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what Justin Herbert is built for. He’s thrown seven touchdown passes his last two games, and while the passing yardage hasn’t been impressive, his ability to rise to big moments is.
Cleveland will have to run effectively to stay in this game, which makes sense because it’s got Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and the Chargers have allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season. They shut down the Raiders’ run game in Week 4, but that’s the Raiders, so does it really count?
Ultimately, this came down to a gut decision between quarterbacks. I rolled with Herbert based on how he looked last Monday. I may regret not backing this beautiful knucklehead come this Sunday:
Toughest game to pick
The Steelers are a mess. The Broncos have yet to beat a team who’d won a game before playing them.
Ben Roethlisberger’s waning arm strength means he isn’t even trying to throw downfield. Teddy Bridgewater left Week 4 with a concussion, and if he can’t go he’ll be replaced by Drew Lock, a man who throws most passes downfield whether he intends to or not.
The Steelers defense, beset by injury, has underachieved. The Broncos defense looked entirely legit, then gave up 400 yards — and Lamar Jackson’s first 300-yard passing day of the season — to the Ravens.
Pittsburgh’s at home. Let’s ride that, because that’s all I’ve got for this one.
Upset pick I like the most
It’s Washington, who can’t keep underachieving, right? I mean, there’s no way trusting a seven-win division champion could burn me!
Anyway, let’s talk about the Bills-Chiefs primetime matchup because that’s much more interesting. Buffalo is a juggernaut right now, dispatching opponents with prejudice — its aggregate score since losing to the Steelers in Week 1 (lol) is 118-21. But that came against a Dolphins team that had to rely heavily on a cold Jacoby Brissett, Washington, and Davis Mills’ Texans. The Bills *should* beat the brakes off those guys.
They’ll travel to Arrowhead Stadium — the contents of which will have had all day to charge up their boozing batteries — for a game against the last-place team in the AFC West. The Chiefs defense is slow and the offense has shot itself in the foot en route to 2-2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled away a comeback win over the Ravens before four turnovers gave way to a loss against the Chargers. A Week 4 get-right game against the Eagles only exposed Kansas City’s defensive limitations.
So, logically, the Bills should continue to roll behind a defense that’s forced 11 turnovers the last three weeks and a mobile quarterback tailor made to leave the Chiefs’ slow linebackers swiping at ghosts. But no! Logic has no place in Arrowhead Stadium! It’s where 24-0 leads go to die and Patrick Mahomes throws 60-yard touchdown passes underhanded with his eyes closed.
Kansas City is at risk of letting the narrative get ahead of its own talent with another loss. Falling to 2-3 wouldn’t doom their playoff chances, but it would allow a media circus to circle the wagons around western Missouri. Andy Reid’s been around long enough to know how stupid — and how potentially distracting — that can be. He’ll have the Chiefs ready to go.