NFL picks for an emotional final week of the season

It's been difficult to think of anything else but the health of Damar Hamlin this week.

This past weekend, I was feeling a bit dejected as a football fan after quite a few games, at both the college and NFL level, did not go the way I wanted them to. It didn’t take long for me to get over those losses, because on Monday night, we were all served a gut-wrenching reminder of what really matters.

When Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field, I was only partly paying attention to the highly anticipated Bengals-Bills showdown. At the time, I had one eye on Monday Night Football and the other on a close men’s basketball game between No. 1 Purdue and Rutgers. Soon, however, I couldn’t look away, as much as I wished I could, as it became clear that this was a life-or-death situation.

Many thoughts ran through my head. First and foremost, I was praying for Hamlin along with everyone else who was watching. I was thinking of his family and friends, and the players on the field who were, understandably, visibly distraught. I was anxiously awaiting any sort of update, while also terrified at what that update would be. 

But underneath all that, one feeling that I couldn’t shake was guilt. I felt guilty for loving a game that could leave an otherwise healthy 24-year-old fighting for his life as medical experts tried to revive his heartbeat. I felt culpable, in a way, for participating in a culture that glorifies a brutal sport and these young men whose lifelong goal is to play it — and then just as quickly dehumanizes them.

I’ve often preached the importance of treating players like people, because they are all more than just athletes. (I’m not always perfect in this regard, either; I edited my last newsletter after the fact to tone down my language a little.) Criticize them when it’s warranted — Deshaun Watson for his sexual misconduct allegations and mealy-mouth apology; Tom Brady for trying to flop his way into a personal foul; Aaron Rodgers for being a Joe Rogan acolyte. 

But when it comes to a blunder they make on the field — a missed kick, off-target-throw, whiffed tackle, or drop — remember they are human beings and that one mistake does not define them. 

Hamlin did not make a mistake. He made a routine tackle that we’ve all seen countless times on the football field. 

I’ve covered plenty of injuries throughout the years, and the ones I recollect most vividly are the scariest, usually career-ending types: Ryan Shazier, Ricardo Lockette, Alex Smith, Zach Miller. Still, we knew as they were leaving the field on a cart or in an ambulance that they were alive. Hamlin’s status was much more uncertain and harrowing. 

Since then, Hamlin has steadily progressed, though his long-term prognosis is still unknown. It wasn’t until Thursday, when his doctors spoke publicly about Hamlin’s condition — that he was awake and communicating — that I could even stomach the thought of writing about or even watching football anytime soon. And it sounds like the Bills players felt the same way. 

For as much as we hear that NFL players know the risks of playing football, it’s one thing when that’s theoretical. It’s quite different to be confronted so directly and forcefully with that realization, watching your teammate collapse and be resuscitated right in front of your eyes.

It felt like an unprecedented situation to me, though if you read about Chuck Hughes or Reggie Brown, the reactions from players, coaches, and fans resemble what we saw in the aftermath of Hamlin’s injury. 

There are a couple differences, however. First, the NFL canceled the game (thankfully). Second, the outpouring of love from fans (and non-fans) all across the world is unlike any kind of rallying I can recall on a sports level.

Perhaps we can attribute that to our collective trauma of the last few years, or the ever-growing popularity of the NFL. Whatever the impetus was, I was grateful to witness the football community and beyond come together to support Hamlin, whether it was fans donating to his foundation or all 32 teams changing their profile pic to this:

Buffalo Bills @BuffaloBills

#NewProfilePic

I hope more change is coming after Hamlin’s incident, though I don’t know what will or can change. On one hand, I know it was a freak play, most likely triggering “commotio cordis,” which is more common (but still rare) in other, non-padded sports. I know having quick-responding medical trainers on the field with the right equipment, which all NFL teams have, saved Hamlin’s life. I know you can’t remove every possible risk in any sport, especially one as violent as football.

On the other hand, this moment has the potential to be a turning point, if we demand for it to be so. The NFL, a league worth billions, can hand out guaranteed contracts. It can and should be doing more for its players after their careers are over, in terms of pensions, medical care, disability, and health insurance. It can continue to fund research into the prevention of injuries and try partnering with programs that study the long-term health of football players. 

As fans, we can have players’ backs when they’re seeking a better contract or improved CBA, rather than act as if they’re behaving like ungrateful divas. We can stop and assess our own relationship to this game and recognize when we’re taking wins and losses too seriously. We can never forget the people inside those jerseys, who do not exist for our entertainment. They’re human beings, just like us.

NFL Week 18 picks

Forgive my clumsy transition here as I venture into the trivial matter of this weekend’s games.

Earlier this week, I wasn’t even sure if I would put together my usual picks newsletter. But after positive news about Hamlin, most recently that his breathing tube has been removed and he’s speaking, I decided I could do a quick version for the final week of the regular season. 

I will try to follow my own advice and not care so much about wins/losses and which matchups I’m right or wrong about. So on that note, I will make a guess for all 16 games rather than just a select few. Before I begin, you can check out the latest odds at DraftKings and Christian’s own picks at FTW.

Here’s who I’m taking in Week 18, with my picks in bold:

Chiefs at Raiders

Titans at Jaguars

Buccaneers at Falcons

Patriots at Bills

Vikings at Bears

Ravens at Bengals

Texans at Colts

Jets at Dolphins

Panthers at Saints

Browns at Steelers

Chargers at Broncos

Giants at Eagles

Cardinals at 49ers

Rams at Seahawks

Cowboys at Commanders

Lions at Packers

I’ll be honest: Most of my predictions are gut reactions, decided before I even knew which quarterbacks would be suiting up this weekend. I had paid minimal attention to who’d be starting and who’d be resting, other than I knew ahead of time that Justin Fields would be sitting out with a hip injury and rookie Sam Howell would be under center for Washington. Since then, I’ve also found out that Joe Flacco and Skylar Thompson will get the nod in Jets-Dolphins, but I’m sticking with Miami, for no reason really.

If I’m 100 percent right on my picks (I will not be 100 percent right), then there will be several ramifications for the playoffs and draft order:

1. The Bears, not the Texans, will end up with the No. 1 pick. But since Chicago won’t draft a quarterback, it won’t change much of anything: Houston will still have its choice of passers in the 2023 class.

2. A mix of old (Packers) and new blood (Jaguars, Dolphins) will secure the final playoff berths. 

3. The Bengals will host a playoff game, no coin toss needed.

4. The Chiefs will nab the No. 1 seed, but depending on which teams make it that far, the AFC title game could be headed for a neutral field. 

The last two are part of the NFL’s just-approved AFC playoff changes. The Bengals may have some complaints, but I don’t think there were any perfect solutions once their game with the Bills was called off. Besides, what happened to Hamlin was much more unfair. His health is what matters, and should put everything else into proper perspective.